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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":1510,"body":1785,"description":3345,"extension":3346,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":3347,"navigation":1782,"path":1511,"published":3350,"seo":3351,"stem":1512,"__hash__":3352},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F07-matching\u002Findex.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3327},"minimark",[1788,1792,1803,1806,1810,1813,1832,1836,1840,2017,2049,2052,2217,2273,2277,2411,2517,2532,2536,2945,2948,2952,2955,2962,3009,3013,3016,3033,3036,3040,3192,3203,3212,3216,3239,3242,3245,3262,3265,3268,3285,3288,3315],[1789,1790,1510],"h1",{"id":1791},"第七章匹配倾向得分与加权",[1793,1794,1795],"blockquote",{},[1796,1797,1798,1802],"p",{},[1799,1800,1801],"strong",{},"案例："," 主动报名就业培训的人更有动机，也可能更缺乏工作机会。怎样只用处理前信息构造可比人群？",[1796,1804,1805],{},"匹配和加权不能把观察研究变成随机实验。它们只在“所有重要混淆都已被测量”时，重新组织已有样本中的比较。",[1807,1808,1809],"h2",{"id":1809},"学习目标",[1796,1811,1812],{},"你应能：",[1814,1815,1816,1820,1823,1826,1829],"ol",{},[1817,1818,1819],"li",{},"写出条件无混杂与重叠假设；",[1817,1821,1822],{},"区分 ATE、ATT 对应的匹配与权重；",[1817,1824,1825],{},"把倾向得分当作设计工具而非结果预测器；",[1817,1827,1828],{},"用标准化差异、权重分布和有效样本量诊断设计；",[1817,1830,1831],{},"解释修剪、截尾和双重稳健估计的目标变化。",[1807,1833,1835],{"id":1834},"_1-两个不可缺少的条件","1. 两个不可缺少的条件",[1837,1838,1839],"h3",{"id":1839},"条件无混杂",[1841,1842,1845],"span",{"className":1843},[1844],"katex-display",[1841,1846,1849,1918],{"className":1847},[1848],"katex",[1841,1850,1853],{"className":1851},[1852],"katex-mathml",[1854,1855,1858],"math",{"xmlns":1856,"display":1857},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1859,1860,1861,1913],"semantics",{},[1862,1863,1864,1869,1873,1875,1879,1882,1886,1888,1890,1893,1895,1897,1900,1903,1906,1909],"mrow",{},[1865,1866,1868],"mo",{"stretchy":1867},"false","(",[1870,1871,1872],"mi",{},"Y",[1865,1874,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1876,1877,1878],"mn",{},"1",[1865,1880,1881],{"stretchy":1867},")",[1865,1883,1885],{"separator":1884},"true",",",[1870,1887,1872],{},[1865,1889,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1876,1891,1892],{},"0",[1865,1894,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1865,1896,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1865,1898,1899],{},"⊥",[1870,1901,1902],{},"D",[1865,1904,1905],{},"∣",[1870,1907,1908],{},"X",[1870,1910,1912],{"mathvariant":1911},"normal",".",[1914,1915,1917],"annotation",{"encoding":1916},"application\u002Fx-tex","(Y(1),Y(0))\\perp D\\mid X.",[1841,1919,1922,1984,2003],{"className":1920,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],"katex-html",[1841,1923,1926,1931,1935,1941,1944,1947,1951,1955,1960,1963,1966,1969,1973,1977,1981],{"className":1924},[1925],"base",[1841,1927],{"className":1928,"style":1930},[1929],"strut","height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1841,1932,1868],{"className":1933},[1934],"mopen",[1841,1936,1872],{"className":1937,"style":1940},[1938,1939],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.2222em;",[1841,1942,1868],{"className":1943},[1934],[1841,1945,1878],{"className":1946},[1938],[1841,1948,1881],{"className":1949},[1950],"mclose",[1841,1952,1885],{"className":1953},[1954],"mpunct",[1841,1956],{"className":1957,"style":1959},[1958],"mspace","margin-right:0.1667em;",[1841,1961,1872],{"className":1962,"style":1940},[1938,1939],[1841,1964,1868],{"className":1965},[1934],[1841,1967,1892],{"className":1968},[1938],[1841,1970,1972],{"className":1971},[1950],"))",[1841,1974],{"className":1975,"style":1976},[1958],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[1841,1978,1899],{"className":1979},[1980],"mrel",[1841,1982],{"className":1983,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,1985,1987,1990,1994,1997,2000],{"className":1986},[1925],[1841,1988],{"className":1989,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,1991,1902],{"className":1992,"style":1993},[1938,1939],"margin-right:0.0278em;",[1841,1995],{"className":1996,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,1998,1905],{"className":1999},[1980],[1841,2001],{"className":2002,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2004,2006,2010,2014],{"className":2005},[1925],[1841,2007],{"className":2008,"style":2009},[1929],"height:0.6833em;",[1841,2011,1908],{"className":2012,"style":2013},[1938,1939],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[1841,2015,1912],{"className":2016},[1938],[1796,2018,2019,2020,2048],{},"给定处理前协变量 ",[1841,2021,2023,2036],{"className":2022},[1848],[1841,2024,2026],{"className":2025},[1852],[1854,2027,2028],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2029,2030,2034],{},[1862,2031,2032],{},[1870,2033,1908],{},[1914,2035,1908],{"encoding":1916},[1841,2037,2039],{"className":2038,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2040,2042,2045],{"className":2041},[1925],[1841,2043],{"className":2044,"style":2009},[1929],[1841,2046,1908],{"className":2047,"style":2013},[1938,1939]," 后，处理分配与潜在结果独立。这个条件无法由观察数据证明；变量选择必须来自制度知识和因果图。",[1837,2050,2051],{"id":2051},"重叠",[1841,2053,2055],{"className":2054},[1844],[1841,2056,2058,2103],{"className":2057},[1848],[1841,2059,2061],{"className":2060},[1852],[1854,2062,2063],{"xmlns":1856,"display":1857},[1859,2064,2065,2100],{},[1862,2066,2067,2069,2072,2075,2077,2079,2082,2084,2086,2088,2090,2093,2095,2097],{},[1876,2068,1892],{},[1865,2070,2071],{},"\u003C",[1870,2073,2074],{},"P",[1865,2076,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2078,1902],{},[1865,2080,2081],{},"=",[1876,2083,1878],{},[1865,2085,1905],{},[1870,2087,1908],{},[1865,2089,2081],{},[1870,2091,2092],{},"x",[1865,2094,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1865,2096,2071],{},[1876,2098,2099],{},"1.",[1914,2101,2102],{"encoding":1916},"0\u003CP(D=1\\mid X=x)\u003C1.",[1841,2104,2106,2125,2150,2168,2186,2207],{"className":2105,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2107,2109,2113,2116,2119,2122],{"className":2108},[1925],[1841,2110],{"className":2111,"style":2112},[1929],"height:0.6835em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[1841,2114,1892],{"className":2115},[1938],[1841,2117],{"className":2118,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2120,2071],{"className":2121},[1980],[1841,2123],{"className":2124,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2126,2128,2131,2135,2138,2141,2144,2147],{"className":2127},[1925],[1841,2129],{"className":2130,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2132,2074],{"className":2133,"style":2134},[1938,1939],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[1841,2136,1868],{"className":2137},[1934],[1841,2139,1902],{"className":2140,"style":1993},[1938,1939],[1841,2142],{"className":2143,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2145,2081],{"className":2146},[1980],[1841,2148],{"className":2149,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2151,2153,2156,2159,2162,2165],{"className":2152},[1925],[1841,2154],{"className":2155,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2157,1878],{"className":2158},[1938],[1841,2160],{"className":2161,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2163,1905],{"className":2164},[1980],[1841,2166],{"className":2167,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2169,2171,2174,2177,2180,2183],{"className":2170},[1925],[1841,2172],{"className":2173,"style":2009},[1929],[1841,2175,1908],{"className":2176,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2178],{"className":2179,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2181,2081],{"className":2182},[1980],[1841,2184],{"className":2185,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2187,2189,2192,2195,2198,2201,2204],{"className":2188},[1925],[1841,2190],{"className":2191,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2193,2092],{"className":2194},[1938,1939],[1841,2196,1881],{"className":2197},[1950],[1841,2199],{"className":2200,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2202,2071],{"className":2203},[1980],[1841,2205],{"className":2206,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2208,2210,2214],{"className":2209},[1925],[1841,2211],{"className":2212,"style":2213},[1929],"height:0.6444em;",[1841,2215,2099],{"className":2216},[1938],[1796,2218,2219,2220,2272],{},"每类 ",[1841,2221,2223,2241],{"className":2222},[1848],[1841,2224,2226],{"className":2225},[1852],[1854,2227,2228],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2229,2230,2238],{},[1862,2231,2232,2234,2236],{},[1870,2233,1908],{},[1865,2235,2081],{},[1870,2237,2092],{},[1914,2239,2240],{"encoding":1916},"X=x",[1841,2242,2244,2262],{"className":2243,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2245,2247,2250,2253,2256,2259],{"className":2246},[1925],[1841,2248],{"className":2249,"style":2009},[1929],[1841,2251,1908],{"className":2252,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2254],{"className":2255,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2257,2081],{"className":2258},[1980],[1841,2260],{"className":2261,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2263,2265,2269],{"className":2264},[1925],[1841,2266],{"className":2267,"style":2268},[1929],"height:0.4306em;",[1841,2270,2092],{"className":2271},[1938,1939]," 人群都要有接受与未接受处理的可能。若某些高风险者必然接受培训，就没有同类未培训者可构造反事实。",[1807,2274,2276],{"id":2275},"_2-倾向得分的角色","2. 倾向得分的角色",[1841,2278,2280],{"className":2279},[1844],[1841,2281,2283,2324],{"className":2282},[1848],[1841,2284,2286],{"className":2285},[1852],[1854,2287,2288],{"xmlns":1856,"display":1857},[1859,2289,2290,2321],{},[1862,2291,2292,2295,2297,2299,2301,2303,2305,2307,2309,2311,2313,2315,2317,2319],{},[1870,2293,2294],{},"e",[1865,2296,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2298,1908],{},[1865,2300,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1865,2302,2081],{},[1870,2304,2074],{},[1865,2306,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2308,1902],{},[1865,2310,2081],{},[1876,2312,1878],{},[1865,2314,1905],{},[1870,2316,1908],{},[1865,2318,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2320,1912],{"mathvariant":1911},[1914,2322,2323],{"encoding":1916},"e(X)=P(D=1\\mid X).",[1841,2325,2327,2354,2378,2396],{"className":2326,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2328,2330,2333,2336,2339,2342,2345,2348,2351],{"className":2329},[1925],[1841,2331],{"className":2332,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2334,2294],{"className":2335},[1938,1939],[1841,2337,1868],{"className":2338},[1934],[1841,2340,1908],{"className":2341,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2343,1881],{"className":2344},[1950],[1841,2346],{"className":2347,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2349,2081],{"className":2350},[1980],[1841,2352],{"className":2353,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2355,2357,2360,2363,2366,2369,2372,2375],{"className":2356},[1925],[1841,2358],{"className":2359,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2361,2074],{"className":2362,"style":2134},[1938,1939],[1841,2364,1868],{"className":2365},[1934],[1841,2367,1902],{"className":2368,"style":1993},[1938,1939],[1841,2370],{"className":2371,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2373,2081],{"className":2374},[1980],[1841,2376],{"className":2377,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2379,2381,2384,2387,2390,2393],{"className":2380},[1925],[1841,2382],{"className":2383,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2385,1878],{"className":2386},[1938],[1841,2388],{"className":2389,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2391,1905],{"className":2392},[1980],[1841,2394],{"className":2395,"style":1976},[1958],[1841,2397,2399,2402,2405,2408],{"className":2398},[1925],[1841,2400],{"className":2401,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2403,1908],{"className":2404,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2406,1881],{"className":2407},[1950],[1841,2409,1912],{"className":2410},[1938],[1796,2412,2413,2414,2442,2443,2487,2488,2516],{},"若无混杂基于 ",[1841,2415,2417,2430],{"className":2416},[1848],[1841,2418,2420],{"className":2419},[1852],[1854,2421,2422],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2423,2424,2428],{},[1862,2425,2426],{},[1870,2427,1908],{},[1914,2429,1908],{"encoding":1916},[1841,2431,2433],{"className":2432,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2434,2436,2439],{"className":2435},[1925],[1841,2437],{"className":2438,"style":2009},[1929],[1841,2440,1908],{"className":2441,"style":2013},[1938,1939]," 成立，则在适当条件下基于 ",[1841,2444,2446,2466],{"className":2445},[1848],[1841,2447,2449],{"className":2448},[1852],[1854,2450,2451],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2452,2453,2463],{},[1862,2454,2455,2457,2459,2461],{},[1870,2456,2294],{},[1865,2458,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2460,1908],{},[1865,2462,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,2464,2465],{"encoding":1916},"e(X)",[1841,2467,2469],{"className":2468,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2470,2472,2475,2478,2481,2484],{"className":2471},[1925],[1841,2473],{"className":2474,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2476,2294],{"className":2477},[1938,1939],[1841,2479,1868],{"className":2480},[1934],[1841,2482,1908],{"className":2483,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2485,1881],{"className":2486},[1950]," 调整也能平衡 ",[1841,2489,2491,2504],{"className":2490},[1848],[1841,2492,2494],{"className":2493},[1852],[1854,2495,2496],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2497,2498,2502],{},[1862,2499,2500],{},[1870,2501,1908],{},[1914,2503,1908],{"encoding":1916},[1841,2505,2507],{"className":2506,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2508,2510,2513],{"className":2509},[1925],[1841,2511],{"className":2512,"style":2009},[1929],[1841,2514,1908],{"className":2515,"style":2013},[1938,1939],"。但：",[2518,2519,2520,2523,2526,2529],"ul",{},[1817,2521,2522],{},"预测处理越准，不一定因果设计越好；",[1817,2524,2525],{},"AUC 很高可能意味着两组几乎不重叠；",[1817,2527,2528],{},"结果变量不应参与设计阶段的倾向得分调参；",[1817,2530,2531],{},"处理后变量不能因“预测力强”就放入模型。",[1807,2533,2535],{"id":2534},"_3-estimand-决定权重","3. estimand 决定权重",[2537,2538,2539,2559],"table",{},[2540,2541,2542],"thead",{},[2543,2544,2545,2549,2553,2556],"tr",{},[2546,2547,2548],"th",{},"目标",[2546,2550,2552],{"align":2551},"right","处理组权重",[2546,2554,2555],{"align":2551},"对照组权重",[2546,2557,2558],{},"解释",[2560,2561,2562,2713,2823],"tbody",{},[2543,2563,2564,2568,2623,2710],{},[2565,2566,2567],"td",{},"ATE",[2565,2569,2570],{"align":2551},[1841,2571,2573,2598],{"className":2572},[1848],[1841,2574,2576],{"className":2575},[1852],[1854,2577,2578],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2579,2580,2595],{},[1862,2581,2582,2584,2587,2589,2591,2593],{},[1876,2583,1878],{},[1870,2585,2586],{"mathvariant":1911},"\u002F",[1870,2588,2294],{},[1865,2590,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2592,1908],{},[1865,2594,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,2596,2597],{"encoding":1916},"1\u002Fe(X)",[1841,2599,2601],{"className":2600,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2602,2604,2607,2611,2614,2617,2620],{"className":2603},[1925],[1841,2605],{"className":2606,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2608,2610],{"className":2609},[1938],"1\u002F",[1841,2612,2294],{"className":2613},[1938,1939],[1841,2615,1868],{"className":2616},[1934],[1841,2618,1908],{"className":2619,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2621,1881],{"className":2622},[1950],[2565,2624,2625],{"align":2551},[1841,2626,2628,2663],{"className":2627},[1848],[1841,2629,2631],{"className":2630},[1852],[1854,2632,2633],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2634,2635,2660],{},[1862,2636,2637,2639,2641,2644,2646,2649,2651,2653,2655,2657],{},[1876,2638,1878],{},[1870,2640,2586],{"mathvariant":1911},[1865,2642,2643],{"stretchy":1867},"[",[1876,2645,1878],{},[1865,2647,2648],{},"−",[1870,2650,2294],{},[1865,2652,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2654,1908],{},[1865,2656,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1865,2658,2659],{"stretchy":1867},"]",[1914,2661,2662],{"encoding":1916},"1\u002F[1-e(X)]",[1841,2664,2666,2691],{"className":2665,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2667,2669,2672,2675,2678,2681,2684,2688],{"className":2668},[1925],[1841,2670],{"className":2671,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2673,2610],{"className":2674},[1938],[1841,2676,2643],{"className":2677},[1934],[1841,2679,1878],{"className":2680},[1938],[1841,2682],{"className":2683,"style":1940},[1958],[1841,2685,2648],{"className":2686},[2687],"mbin",[1841,2689],{"className":2690,"style":1940},[1958],[1841,2692,2694,2697,2700,2703,2706],{"className":2693},[1925],[1841,2695],{"className":2696,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2698,2294],{"className":2699},[1938,1939],[1841,2701,1868],{"className":2702},[1934],[1841,2704,1908],{"className":2705,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2707,2709],{"className":2708},[1950],")]",[2565,2711,2712],{},"重建总体",[2543,2714,2715,2718,2720,2820],{},[2565,2716,2717],{},"ATT",[2565,2719,1878],{"align":2551},[2565,2721,2722],{"align":2551},[1841,2723,2725,2763],{"className":2724},[1848],[1841,2726,2728],{"className":2727},[1852],[1854,2729,2730],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2731,2732,2760],{},[1862,2733,2734,2736,2738,2740,2742,2744,2746,2748,2750,2752,2754,2756,2758],{},[1870,2735,2294],{},[1865,2737,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2739,1908],{},[1865,2741,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2743,2586],{"mathvariant":1911},[1865,2745,2643],{"stretchy":1867},[1876,2747,1878],{},[1865,2749,2648],{},[1870,2751,2294],{},[1865,2753,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2755,1908],{},[1865,2757,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1865,2759,2659],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,2761,2762],{"encoding":1916},"e(X)\u002F[1-e(X)]",[1841,2764,2766,2802],{"className":2765,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2767,2769,2772,2775,2778,2781,2784,2787,2790,2793,2796,2799],{"className":2768},[1925],[1841,2770],{"className":2771,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2773,2294],{"className":2774},[1938,1939],[1841,2776,1868],{"className":2777},[1934],[1841,2779,1908],{"className":2780,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2782,1881],{"className":2783},[1950],[1841,2785,2586],{"className":2786},[1938],[1841,2788,2643],{"className":2789},[1934],[1841,2791,1878],{"className":2792},[1938],[1841,2794],{"className":2795,"style":1940},[1958],[1841,2797,2648],{"className":2798},[2687],[1841,2800],{"className":2801,"style":1940},[1958],[1841,2803,2805,2808,2811,2814,2817],{"className":2804},[1925],[1841,2806],{"className":2807,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2809,2294],{"className":2810},[1938,1939],[1841,2812,1868],{"className":2813},[1934],[1841,2815,1908],{"className":2816,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2818,2709],{"className":2819},[1950],[2565,2821,2822],{},"让对照组像已处理者",[2543,2824,2825,2828,2897,2942],{},[2565,2826,2827],{},"overlap effect",[2565,2829,2830],{"align":2551},[1841,2831,2833,2857],{"className":2832},[1848],[1841,2834,2836],{"className":2835},[1852],[1854,2837,2838],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2839,2840,2854],{},[1862,2841,2842,2844,2846,2848,2850,2852],{},[1876,2843,1878],{},[1865,2845,2648],{},[1870,2847,2294],{},[1865,2849,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2851,1908],{},[1865,2853,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,2855,2856],{"encoding":1916},"1-e(X)",[1841,2858,2860,2879],{"className":2859,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2861,2863,2867,2870,2873,2876],{"className":2862},[1925],[1841,2864],{"className":2865,"style":2866},[1929],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1841,2868,1878],{"className":2869},[1938],[1841,2871],{"className":2872,"style":1940},[1958],[1841,2874,2648],{"className":2875},[2687],[1841,2877],{"className":2878,"style":1940},[1958],[1841,2880,2882,2885,2888,2891,2894],{"className":2881},[1925],[1841,2883],{"className":2884,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2886,2294],{"className":2887},[1938,1939],[1841,2889,1868],{"className":2890},[1934],[1841,2892,1908],{"className":2893,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2895,1881],{"className":2896},[1950],[2565,2898,2899],{"align":2551},[1841,2900,2902,2921],{"className":2901},[1848],[1841,2903,2905],{"className":2904},[1852],[1854,2906,2907],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2908,2909,2919],{},[1862,2910,2911,2913,2915,2917],{},[1870,2912,2294],{},[1865,2914,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2916,1908],{},[1865,2918,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,2920,2465],{"encoding":1916},[1841,2922,2924],{"className":2923,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2925,2927,2930,2933,2936,2939],{"className":2926},[1925],[1841,2928],{"className":2929,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2931,2294],{"className":2932},[1938,1939],[1841,2934,1868],{"className":2935},[1934],[1841,2937,1908],{"className":2938,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,2940,1881],{"className":2941},[1950],[2565,2943,2944],{},"强调最有共同支持的人群",[1796,2946,2947],{},"极端倾向得分会产生大权重。修剪或截尾能降低方差，却也改变目标人群；必须报告规则和新 estimand。",[1807,2949,2951],{"id":2950},"_4-可运行案例自愿培训与-ipw","4. 可运行案例：自愿培训与 IPW",[1796,2953,2954],{},"模拟中报名同时受技能与就业障碍影响。两者都被观察，且真实倾向得分已知，因此 IPW 可以恢复 ATE；代码同时展示加权前后的协变量平衡与有效样本量。",[2956,2957],"pyodide",{"code64":2958,"layout":2959,"locale":7,"packages":2960,"title":2961},"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","vertical","numpy","Python：IPW、平衡与有效样本量",[1796,2963,2964,2965,3008],{},"这里使用“真实”倾向得分是为了隔离加权机制；代码按处理状态分别归一化权重（Hájek 形式），以降低有限样本中极端权重造成的波动。实际研究必须估计 ",[1841,2966,2968,2987],{"className":2967},[1848],[1841,2969,2971],{"className":2970},[1852],[1854,2972,2973],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,2974,2975,2985],{},[1862,2976,2977,2979,2981,2983],{},[1870,2978,2294],{},[1865,2980,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,2982,1908],{},[1865,2984,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,2986,2465],{"encoding":1916},[1841,2988,2990],{"className":2989,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,2991,2993,2996,2999,3002,3005],{"className":2992},[1925],[1841,2994],{"className":2995,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,2997,2294],{"className":2998},[1938,1939],[1841,3000,1868],{"className":3001},[1934],[1841,3003,1908],{"className":3004,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,3006,1881],{"className":3007},[1950],"，并把模型选择、缺失值处理和权重诊断纳入不确定性审计。",[1807,3010,3012],{"id":3011},"_5-匹配不是按显著性筛变量","5. 匹配不是按显著性筛变量",[1796,3014,3015],{},"常见设计：",[2518,3017,3018,3021,3024,3027,3030],{},[1817,3019,3020],{},"最近邻匹配：直观，但结果依赖距离、替换与匹配顺序；",[1817,3022,3023],{},"卡尺匹配：拒绝距离过远的配对，会改变目标样本；",[1817,3025,3026],{},"精确\u002F粗化精确匹配：保证关键变量分层内可比；",[1817,3028,3029],{},"Mahalanobis 距离：适合少量连续协变量；",[1817,3031,3032],{},"倾向得分匹配：降维方便，但同一得分下单个协变量仍可能失衡。",[1796,3034,3035],{},"匹配后必须重新检查每个关键协变量的标准化差异和分布，而不是只报告倾向得分均值。",[1807,3037,3039],{"id":3038},"_6-双重稳健的准确含义","6. 双重稳健的准确含义",[1796,3041,3042,3043,3086,3087,3191],{},"增广 IPW 同时使用倾向得分模型 ",[1841,3044,3046,3065],{"className":3045},[1848],[1841,3047,3049],{"className":3048},[1852],[1854,3050,3051],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,3052,3053,3063],{},[1862,3054,3055,3057,3059,3061],{},[1870,3056,2294],{},[1865,3058,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,3060,1908],{},[1865,3062,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,3064,2465],{"encoding":1916},[1841,3066,3068],{"className":3067,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,3069,3071,3074,3077,3080,3083],{"className":3070},[1925],[1841,3072],{"className":3073,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,3075,2294],{"className":3076},[1938,1939],[1841,3078,1868],{"className":3079},[1934],[1841,3081,1908],{"className":3082,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,3084,1881],{"className":3085},[1950]," 与结果模型 ",[1841,3088,3090,3117],{"className":3089},[1848],[1841,3091,3093],{"className":3092},[1852],[1854,3094,3095],{"xmlns":1856},[1859,3096,3097,3114],{},[1862,3098,3099,3108,3110,3112],{},[3100,3101,3102,3105],"msub",{},[1870,3103,3104],{},"μ",[1870,3106,3107],{},"d",[1865,3109,1868],{"stretchy":1867},[1870,3111,1908],{},[1865,3113,1881],{"stretchy":1867},[1914,3115,3116],{"encoding":1916},"\\mu_d(X)",[1841,3118,3120],{"className":3119,"ariaHidden":1884},[1921],[1841,3121,3123,3126,3182,3185,3188],{"className":3122},[1925],[1841,3124],{"className":3125,"style":1930},[1929],[1841,3127,3129,3132],{"className":3128},[1938],[1841,3130,3104],{"className":3131},[1938,1939],[1841,3133,3136],{"className":3134},[3135],"msupsub",[1841,3137,3141,3173],{"className":3138},[3139,3140],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1841,3142,3145,3168],{"className":3143},[3144],"vlist-r",[1841,3146,3150],{"className":3147,"style":3149},[3148],"vlist","height:0.3361em;",[1841,3151,3153,3158],{"style":3152},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1841,3154],{"className":3155,"style":3157},[3156],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[1841,3159,3165],{"className":3160},[3161,3162,3163,3164],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1841,3166,3107],{"className":3167},[1938,1939,3164],[1841,3169,3172],{"className":3170},[3171],"vlist-s","​",[1841,3174,3176],{"className":3175},[3144],[1841,3177,3180],{"className":3178,"style":3179},[3148],"height:0.15em;",[1841,3181],{},[1841,3183,1868],{"className":3184},[1934],[1841,3186,1908],{"className":3187,"style":2013},[1938,1939],[1841,3189,1881],{"className":3190},[1950],"。在常见条件下，只要其中一个 nuisance model 正确设定，估计仍可一致；它不意味着：",[2518,3193,3194,3197,3200],{},[1817,3195,3196],{},"两个错误模型会互相修复；",[1817,3198,3199],{},"未观测混淆不再重要；",[1817,3201,3202],{},"重叠不足可以被算法解决。",[1796,3204,3205,3206,3211],{},"交叉拟合可降低灵活机器学习造成的过拟合偏误，详见",[3207,3208,3210],"a",{"href":3209},"..\u002F11-ml-causal\u002F","第十一章","。",[1807,3213,3215],{"id":3214},"_7-诊断与报告","7. 诊断与报告",[1814,3217,3218,3221,3224,3227,3230,3233,3236],{},[1817,3219,3220],{},"协变量是否全部在处理前测量？",[1817,3222,3223],{},"变量选择是否由 DAG 与制度机制决定？",[1817,3225,3226],{},"倾向得分分布是否有共同支持？",[1817,3228,3229],{},"每个关键变量的加权后 SMD 是否接近零？",[1817,3231,3232],{},"最大权重、权重分位数与有效样本量是多少？",[1817,3234,3235],{},"修剪了谁，目标人群怎样改变？",[1817,3237,3238],{},"是否进行未观测混淆敏感性分析？",[1796,3240,3241],{},"“SMD \u003C 0.1”是常用经验门槛，不是有效性的证明；还要检查分布尾部、非线性和交互项。",[1807,3243,3244],{"id":3244},"常见误区",[2518,3246,3247,3250,3253,3256,3259],{},[1817,3248,3249],{},"用结果显著性选择倾向得分模型；",[1817,3251,3252],{},"匹配后仍按原始独立样本公式计算标准误；",[1817,3254,3255],{},"删除无法匹配的处理者后仍声称估计原总体 ATE；",[1817,3257,3258],{},"把未观测混淆写成一句泛泛“研究局限”；",[1817,3260,3261],{},"把极端权重只当软件问题，而不重审目标人群。",[1807,3263,3264],{"id":3264},"课堂任务",[1796,3266,3267],{},"为“参加创业辅导是否提高企业存续率”设计 ATT 匹配：",[1814,3269,3270,3273,3276,3279,3282],{},[1817,3271,3272],{},"列出五个处理前混淆变量；",[1817,3274,3275],{},"指出一个不应控制的处理后变量；",[1817,3277,3278],{},"说明共同支持不足时删掉哪些企业；",[1817,3280,3281],{},"选择一个平衡图和一个敏感性分析；",[1817,3283,3284],{},"用一句话重新定义修剪后的 ATT。",[1807,3286,3287],{"id":3287},"核心阅读",[2518,3289,3290,3299,3307],{},[1817,3291,3292,3293,3211],{},"Rosenbaum & Rubin (1983), ",[3207,3294,3298],{"href":3295,"rel":3296},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1093\u002Fbiomet\u002F70.1.41",[3297],"nofollow","“The Central Role of the Propensity Score”",[1817,3300,3301,3302,3211],{},"Imbens (2004), ",[3207,3303,3306],{"href":3304,"rel":3305},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1162\u002F003465304323023651",[3297],"“Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects”",[1817,3308,3309,3310,3211],{},"Stuart (2010), ",[3207,3311,3314],{"href":3312,"rel":3313},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1214\u002F09-STS313",[3297],"“Matching Methods for Causal Inference”",[1796,3316,3317,3318,3322,3323,3211],{},"上一章：",[3207,3319,3321],{"href":3320},"..\u002F06-rdd\u002F","断点回归设计","｜下一章：",[3207,3324,3326],{"href":3325},"..\u002F08-discrete-choice\u002F","离散选择模型",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3328,"depth":3328,"links":3329},2,[3330,3331,3336,3337,3338,3339,3340,3341,3342,3343,3344],{"id":1809,"depth":3328,"text":1809},{"id":1834,"depth":3328,"text":1835,"children":3332},[3333,3335],{"id":1839,"depth":3334,"text":1839},3,{"id":2051,"depth":3334,"text":2051},{"id":2275,"depth":3328,"text":2276},{"id":2534,"depth":3328,"text":2535},{"id":2950,"depth":3328,"text":2951},{"id":3011,"depth":3328,"text":3012},{"id":3038,"depth":3328,"text":3039},{"id":3214,"depth":3328,"text":3215},{"id":3244,"depth":3328,"text":3244},{"id":3264,"depth":3328,"text":3264},{"id":3287,"depth":3328,"text":3287},"围绕无混杂与重叠条件，掌握匹配、倾向得分加权、平衡诊断和双重稳健估计。","md",{"sidebar":3348},{"order":3349},7,true,{"title":1510,"description":3345},"IJX9c0OfEeO_FB7lc7x0mUBuclrEVADhbsngaWA30YM",[3354,3356],{"title":1504,"path":1505,"stem":1506,"description":3355,"children":-1},"用阈值附近的局部比较理解连续性、带宽、操纵检验、局部多项式与模糊断点。",{"title":1516,"path":1517,"stem":1518,"description":3357,"children":-1},"从随机效用出发理解 Logit、Probit、多项选择、边际效应、IIA 与政策反事实。",1785754751827]