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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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与重抽样","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F07-bootstrap","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F07-bootstrap\u002Findex",[1726],{"title":1722,"path":1723,"stem":1724},{"title":1728,"path":1729,"stem":1730},"第十三章：前沿文献与现代统计案例（2023—2026）","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F03-frontier-literature-2026","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F03-frontier-literature-2026",{"title":1732,"path":1733,"stem":1734,"children":1735,"page":249},"Quant","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant","zh\u002Fquant",[1736,1742,1746,1750,1754,1758,1762,1766,1770,1774,1778],{"title":1737,"path":1738,"stem":1739,"children":1740},"量化投资——从可检验信号到可执行组合","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F00-index","zh\u002Fquant\u002F00-index",[1741],{"title":1737,"path":1738,"stem":1739},{"title":1743,"path":1744,"stem":1745},"数据获取与预处理","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F01-research-data","zh\u002Fquant\u002F01-research-data",{"title":1747,"path":1748,"stem":1749},"因子与交易信号","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F02-factor-and-signals","zh\u002Fquant\u002F02-factor-and-signals",{"title":1751,"path":1752,"stem":1753},"策略建模与回测","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F03-modeling-and-backtest","zh\u002Fquant\u002F03-modeling-and-backtest",{"title":1755,"path":1756,"stem":1757},"组合构建与风险建模（资产定价视角）","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F04-portfolio-and-risk","zh\u002Fquant\u002F04-portfolio-and-risk",{"title":1759,"path":1760,"stem":1761},"执行策略与市场微结构概览","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F05-execution-and-microstructure","zh\u002Fquant\u002F05-execution-and-microstructure",{"title":1763,"path":1764,"stem":1765},"策略上线、监控与迭代","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F06-production-and-monitoring","zh\u002Fquant\u002F06-production-and-monitoring",{"title":1767,"path":1768,"stem":1769},"量化工程与工具链概览","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F07-engineering-stack","zh\u002Fquant\u002F07-engineering-stack",{"title":1771,"path":1772,"stem":1773},"计量方法与实证检验","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F08-econometric-methods","zh\u002Fquant\u002F08-econometric-methods",{"title":1775,"path":1776,"stem":1777},"案例研究：多因子股票 Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":1422,"body":1785,"description":3436,"extension":3437,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":3438,"navigation":1782,"path":1423,"published":3441,"seo":3442,"stem":1424,"__hash__":3443},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fmacroeconomics\u002Findex.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3417},"minimark",[1788,1793,1797,1801,1804,1808,1811,1814,1817,1851,1854,1899,1902,1905,1909,1912,1974,1977,1980,1983,2037,2042,2046,2049,2088,2091,2095,2098,2101,2391,2394,2503,2506,2784,2913,2919,2922,2925,3116,3120,3321,3324,3327,3371,3374,3402,3405,3408,3411],[1789,1790,1792],"h1",{"id":1791},"宏观经济学从国民账户到增长与政策","宏观经济学：从国民账户到增长与政策",[1794,1795,1796],"h2",{"id":1796},"课程定位",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"宏观经济学研究的不是一个抽象的“平均人”，而是把家庭、企业、政府、金融机构和国外部门的决策放在同一个相互联系的系统里，解释产出、就业、通货膨胀、利率、汇率、增长和危机为什么会共同变化。",[1798,1802,1803],{},"这门课按一条清晰的学习链组织：",[1805,1806],"mermaid-diagram",{"code64":1807,"locale":7},"Zmxvd2NoYXJ0IExSCiAgQVsi5Zu95rCR6LSm5oi35LiO5pWw5o2uIl0gLS0+IEJbIua2iOi0ueOAgeaKlei1hOS4juaAu+mcgOaxgiJdCiAgQiAtLT4gQ1si6LSn5biB44CB6ZO26KGM5LiO5Yip546HIl0KICBDIC0tPiBEWyJBRC1BU+OAgemAmuiDgOS4juWwseS4miJdCiAgRCAtLT4gRVsi6LSi5pS\u002F5LiO6LSn5biB5pS\u002F562WIl0KICBFIC0tPiBGWyLlop7plb\u002FjgIHnlJ\u002FkuqfnjofkuI7lj5HlsZUiXQogIEYgLS0+IEdbIuW8gOaUvue7j+a1juS4juaxh+eOhyJdCiAgRyAtLT4gSFsi5a6P6KeC56CU56m26aG555uuIl0=",[1798,1809,1810],{},"本科生需要掌握概念、图形、基本方程和政策传导；研究生还需要说明动态假设、预期、识别策略、异质性、一般均衡反馈和模型与数据之间的对应关系。本课程中的“研究生扩展”不是把公式写得更复杂，而是要求你明确哪些结论由哪些假设产生。",[1794,1812,1813],{"id":1813},"学习成果",[1798,1815,1816],{},"完成课程后，你应能够：",[1818,1819,1820,1824,1827,1830,1833,1836,1839,1842,1845,1848],"ol",{},[1821,1822,1823],"li",{},"解释 GDP、国民收入、消费、投资、政府购买、净出口、通货膨胀和失业率的定义与测量边界。",[1821,1825,1826],{},"区分名义量与实际量、存量与流量、水平与增长率，并识别常见的统计口径错误。",[1821,1828,1829],{},"用凯恩斯交叉、IS–LM 或现代利率—产出框架解释短期总需求变化。",[1821,1831,1832],{},"用 AD–AS 框架分析需求冲击、供给冲击、预期变化和政策响应。",[1821,1834,1835],{},"解释货币创造、银行资产负债表、中央银行工具、利率传导和金融条件。",[1821,1837,1838],{},"计算并解释财政乘数、债务动态、实际利率、增长分解和汇率变化。",[1821,1840,1841],{},"讨论长期增长中的资本积累、人力资本、技术、制度和生产率。",[1821,1843,1844],{},"区分描述性宏观事实、理论机制、政策反事实和因果识别证据。",[1821,1846,1847],{},"使用 Python 或 R 对宏观数据进行可重复的整理、可视化、估计和稳健性检查。",[1821,1849,1850],{},"写出一份同时说明机制、时间跨度、分配后果与不确定性的宏观政策分析。",[1794,1852,1853],{"id":1853},"本科生与研究生两条学习路径",[1855,1856,1857,1873],"table",{},[1858,1859,1860],"thead",{},[1861,1862,1863,1867,1870],"tr",{},[1864,1865,1866],"th",{},"学习层级",[1864,1868,1869],{},"必须达到的标准",[1864,1871,1872],{},"建议的研究生扩展",[1874,1875,1876,1888],"tbody",{},[1861,1877,1878,1882,1885],{},[1879,1880,1881],"td",{},"本科生",[1879,1883,1884],{},"会读国民账户和宏观图形；能推导基础乘数；能解释政策冲击的方向、时滞和副作用。",[1879,1886,1887],{},"用数据检验一个宏观事实，并讨论测量误差和替代解释。",[1861,1889,1890,1893,1896],{},[1879,1891,1892],{},"研究生",[1879,1894,1895],{},"在掌握本科内容的基础上，能写出动态模型的状态变量、冲击和识别假设。",[1879,1897,1898],{},"讨论预期、一般均衡、异质性主体、结构估计或局部投影等研究方法。",[1798,1900,1901],{},"研究生学习者不应跳过基础模型。凯恩斯交叉、货币市场和增长模型是阅读 DSGE、VAR、局部投影和宏观劳动研究的语言基础。",[1794,1903,1904],{"id":1904},"先修准备",[1906,1907,1908],"h3",{"id":1908},"概念准备",[1798,1910,1911],{},"在开始第一章前，先确认自己能够区分：",[1855,1913,1914,1924],{},[1858,1915,1916],{},[1861,1917,1918,1921],{},[1864,1919,1920],{},"概念对",[1864,1922,1923],{},"要点",[1874,1925,1926,1934,1942,1950,1958,1966],{},[1861,1927,1928,1931],{},[1879,1929,1930],{},"GDP 与财富",[1879,1932,1933],{},"GDP 是一段时期的生产流量；财富是某一时点的资产净值存量。",[1861,1935,1936,1939],{},[1879,1937,1938],{},"名义与实际",[1879,1940,1941],{},"名义量包含价格变化；实际量尽量隔离价格后比较数量或购买力。",[1861,1943,1944,1947],{},[1879,1945,1946],{},"储蓄与投资",[1879,1948,1949],{},"宏观账户中的投资是新增资本品和库存变化，不等同于购买股票。",[1861,1951,1952,1955],{},[1879,1953,1954],{},"失业率与就业率",[1879,1956,1957],{},"分母不同；退出劳动力市场会改变失业率而不一定改善就业。",[1861,1959,1960,1963],{},[1879,1961,1962],{},"赤字与债务",[1879,1964,1965],{},"赤字是某期流量；债务是累积存量。",[1861,1967,1968,1971],{},[1879,1969,1970],{},"相关与因果",[1879,1972,1973],{},"两个宏观变量共同波动不等于其中一个造成另一个。",[1906,1975,1976],{"id":1976},"数学与数据准备",[1798,1978,1979],{},"需要掌握一次函数、对数增长率、百分比变化、求和符号、矩阵乘法和基本微积分。宏观数据还要求你注意频率、季节调整、基期、链式价格指数、修订和缺失值。",[1906,1981,1982],{"id":1982},"诊断自测",[1855,1984,1985,1995],{},[1858,1986,1987],{},[1861,1988,1989,1992],{},[1864,1990,1991],{},"问题",[1864,1993,1994],{},"强答案应注意什么",[1874,1996,1997,2005,2013,2021,2029],{},[1861,1998,1999,2002],{},[1879,2000,2001],{},"名义 GDP 增长 8%，GDP 平减指数增长 5%，实际 GDP 是否增长 8%？",[1879,2003,2004],{},"不应把价格增长计入实际产出；小增长率近似为实际增长约 3%。",[1861,2006,2007,2010],{},[1879,2008,2009],{},"政府增加支出一定会让产出增加同样多吗？",[1879,2011,2012],{},"要看乘数、税收、进口、利率、供给约束和预期。",[1861,2014,2015,2018],{},[1879,2016,2017],{},"央行降息一定会降低通胀吗？",[1879,2019,2020],{},"短期可能刺激需求；最终效果取决于产出缺口、预期、供给和政策可信度。",[1861,2022,2023,2026],{},[1879,2024,2025],{},"经济增长一定意味着所有人的福利都提高吗？",[1879,2027,2028],{},"需要观察分配、闲暇、环境、公共品和家庭生产等 GDP 未覆盖部分。",[1861,2030,2031,2034],{},[1879,2032,2033],{},"贸易逆差是否等于国家“亏损”？",[1879,2035,2036],{},"要区分经常账户、资本流动、储蓄—投资恒等式和福利含义。",[2038,2039,2041],"legacy-spoiler",{"title":2040},"自测提示","宏观分析的第一步永远是定义变量和时间跨度。对政策问题，还要分清短期稳定目标与长期供给能力；对数据问题，要先确认统计口径，再讨论机制。",[1794,2043,2045],{"id":2044},"贯穿案例一次能源价格冲击","贯穿案例：一次能源价格冲击",[1798,2047,2048],{},"假设一个能源进口国突然面对能源价格上升。不要只写“通胀上升”，而要按层次分析：",[1818,2050,2051,2058,2064,2070,2076,2082],{},[1821,2052,2053,2057],{},[2054,2055,2056],"strong",{},"国民账户层面："," 能源进口价格上升可能恶化贸易条件，居民实际购买力下降，企业成本上升。",[1821,2059,2060,2063],{},[2054,2061,2062],{},"供给侧："," 单位产出成本提高，短期总供给向左移动；产出下降、价格水平上升的风险同时存在。",[1821,2065,2066,2069],{},[2054,2067,2068],{},"需求侧："," 实际收入下降会减少消费；如果政府补贴能源，财政支出增加，需求下降可能被部分抵消。",[1821,2071,2072,2075],{},[2054,2073,2074],{},"货币政策："," 央行面对通胀与产出之间的权衡；加息可能压制需求，但不能直接增加能源供给。",[1821,2077,2078,2081],{},[2054,2079,2080],{},"分配层面："," 低收入家庭能源支出占比更高，统一补贴与定向转移支付的分配效果不同。",[1821,2083,2084,2087],{},[2054,2085,2086],{},"长期层面："," 投资、能源替代、技术创新和基础设施会改变未来供给弹性。",[1798,2089,2090],{},"这一案例提醒我们：同一个冲击可以同时进入多个方程。高质量回答要标出每条传导的时间跨度、受影响的主体和可能的反作用。",[2092,2093],"chart-js-figure",{"props64":2094},"eyJ0eXBlIjoibGluZSIsInRpdGxlIjoi6IO95rqQ5Yay5Ye755qE56S65oSP5oCn5a6P6KeC6Lev5b6EIiwic3VidGl0bGUiOiLnpLrmhI\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\u002Fkvpvnu5nlhrLlh7vlj6\u002Fog73lhYjpgKDmiJDku7fmoLzkuIrljYflkozkuqflh7rkuIvpmY3vvJvlkI7nu63ot6\u002FlvoTlj5blhrPkuo7pooTmnJ\u002FjgIHmlL\u002FnrZblkozkvpvnu5nosIPmlbTjgIIifQ==",[1794,2096,2097],{"id":2097},"一个可计算的乘数例子",[1798,2099,2100],{},"在最简单的封闭经济模型中，假设消费函数为：",[2102,2103,2106],"span",{"className":2104},[2105],"katex-display",[2102,2107,2110,2191],{"className":2108},[2109],"katex",[2102,2111,2114],{"className":2112},[2113],"katex-mathml",[2115,2116,2119],"math",{"xmlns":2117,"display":2118},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[2120,2121,2122,2186],"semantics",{},[2123,2124,2125,2129,2133,2142,2145,2148,2152,2155,2158,2161,2164,2168,2172,2174,2177,2179,2181,2184],"mrow",{},[2126,2127,2128],"mi",{},"C",[2130,2131,2132],"mo",{},"=",[2134,2135,2136,2138],"msub",{},[2126,2137,2128],{},[2139,2140,2141],"mn",{},"0",[2130,2143,2144],{},"+",[2126,2146,2147],{},"c",[2130,2149,2151],{"stretchy":2150},"false","(",[2126,2153,2154],{},"Y",[2130,2156,2157],{},"−",[2126,2159,2160],{},"T",[2130,2162,2163],{"stretchy":2150},")",[2130,2165,2167],{"separator":2166},"true",",",[2169,2170],"mspace",{"width":2171},"2em",[2139,2173,2141],{},[2130,2175,2176],{},"\u003C",[2126,2178,2147],{},[2130,2180,2176],{},[2139,2182,2183],{},"1",[2130,2185,2167],{"separator":2166},[2187,2188,2190],"annotation",{"encoding":2189},"application\u002Fx-tex","C=C_0+c(Y-T),\\qquad 0\u003Cc\u003C1,",[2102,2192,2195,2221,2295,2321,2359,2378],{"className":2193,"ariaHidden":2166},[2194],"katex-html",[2102,2196,2199,2204,2210,2214,2218],{"className":2197},[2198],"base",[2102,2200],{"className":2201,"style":2203},[2202],"strut","height:0.6833em;",[2102,2205,2128],{"className":2206,"style":2209},[2207,2208],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.0715em;",[2102,2211],{"className":2212,"style":2213},[2169],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[2102,2215,2132],{"className":2216},[2217],"mrel",[2102,2219],{"className":2220,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2222,2224,2228,2284,2288,2292],{"className":2223},[2198],[2102,2225],{"className":2226,"style":2227},[2202],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[2102,2229,2231,2234],{"className":2230},[2207],[2102,2232,2128],{"className":2233,"style":2209},[2207,2208],[2102,2235,2238],{"className":2236},[2237],"msupsub",[2102,2239,2243,2275],{"className":2240},[2241,2242],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[2102,2244,2247,2270],{"className":2245},[2246],"vlist-r",[2102,2248,2252],{"className":2249,"style":2251},[2250],"vlist","height:0.3011em;",[2102,2253,2255,2260],{"style":2254},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0715em;margin-right:0.05em;",[2102,2256],{"className":2257,"style":2259},[2258],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[2102,2261,2267],{"className":2262},[2263,2264,2265,2266],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[2102,2268,2141],{"className":2269},[2207,2266],[2102,2271,2274],{"className":2272},[2273],"vlist-s","​",[2102,2276,2278],{"className":2277},[2246],[2102,2279,2282],{"className":2280,"style":2281},[2250],"height:0.15em;",[2102,2283],{},[2102,2285],{"className":2286,"style":2287},[2169],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[2102,2289,2144],{"className":2290},[2291],"mbin",[2102,2293],{"className":2294,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2296,2298,2302,2305,2309,2312,2315,2318],{"className":2297},[2198],[2102,2299],{"className":2300,"style":2301},[2202],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[2102,2303,2147],{"className":2304},[2207,2208],[2102,2306,2151],{"className":2307},[2308],"mopen",[2102,2310,2154],{"className":2311,"style":2287},[2207,2208],[2102,2313],{"className":2314,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2316,2157],{"className":2317},[2291],[2102,2319],{"className":2320,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2322,2324,2327,2331,2335,2339,2343,2347,2350,2353,2356],{"className":2323},[2198],[2102,2325],{"className":2326,"style":2301},[2202],[2102,2328,2160],{"className":2329,"style":2330},[2207,2208],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[2102,2332,2163],{"className":2333},[2334],"mclose",[2102,2336,2167],{"className":2337},[2338],"mpunct",[2102,2340],{"className":2341,"style":2342},[2169],"margin-right:2em;",[2102,2344],{"className":2345,"style":2346},[2169],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[2102,2348,2141],{"className":2349},[2207],[2102,2351],{"className":2352,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2354,2176],{"className":2355},[2217],[2102,2357],{"className":2358,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2360,2362,2366,2369,2372,2375],{"className":2361},[2198],[2102,2363],{"className":2364,"style":2365},[2202],"height:0.5782em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[2102,2367,2147],{"className":2368},[2207,2208],[2102,2370],{"className":2371,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2373,2176],{"className":2374},[2217],[2102,2376],{"className":2377,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2379,2381,2385,2388],{"className":2380},[2198],[2102,2382],{"className":2383,"style":2384},[2202],"height:0.8389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[2102,2386,2183],{"className":2387},[2207],[2102,2389,2167],{"className":2390},[2338],[1798,2392,2393],{},"商品市场均衡为：",[2102,2395,2397],{"className":2396},[2105],[2102,2398,2400,2432],{"className":2399},[2109],[2102,2401,2403],{"className":2402},[2113],[2115,2404,2405],{"xmlns":2117,"display":2118},[2120,2406,2407,2429],{},[2123,2408,2409,2411,2413,2415,2417,2420,2422,2425],{},[2126,2410,2154],{},[2130,2412,2132],{},[2126,2414,2128],{},[2130,2416,2144],{},[2126,2418,2419],{},"I",[2130,2421,2144],{},[2126,2423,2424],{},"G",[2126,2426,2428],{"mathvariant":2427},"normal",".",[2187,2430,2431],{"encoding":2189},"Y=C+I+G.",[2102,2433,2435,2453,2472,2491],{"className":2434,"ariaHidden":2166},[2194],[2102,2436,2438,2441,2444,2447,2450],{"className":2437},[2198],[2102,2439],{"className":2440,"style":2203},[2202],[2102,2442,2154],{"className":2443,"style":2287},[2207,2208],[2102,2445],{"className":2446,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2448,2132],{"className":2449},[2217],[2102,2451],{"className":2452,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2454,2456,2460,2463,2466,2469],{"className":2455},[2198],[2102,2457],{"className":2458,"style":2459},[2202],"height:0.7667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[2102,2461,2128],{"className":2462,"style":2209},[2207,2208],[2102,2464],{"className":2465,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2467,2144],{"className":2468},[2291],[2102,2470],{"className":2471,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2473,2475,2478,2482,2485,2488],{"className":2474},[2198],[2102,2476],{"className":2477,"style":2459},[2202],[2102,2479,2419],{"className":2480,"style":2481},[2207,2208],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[2102,2483],{"className":2484,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2486,2144],{"className":2487},[2291],[2102,2489],{"className":2490,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2492,2494,2497,2500],{"className":2493},[2198],[2102,2495],{"className":2496,"style":2203},[2202],[2102,2498,2424],{"className":2499},[2207,2208],[2102,2501,2428],{"className":2502},[2207],[1798,2504,2505],{},"代入可得：",[2102,2507,2509],{"className":2508},[2105],[2102,2510,2512,2567],{"className":2511},[2109],[2102,2513,2515],{"className":2514},[2113],[2115,2516,2517],{"xmlns":2117,"display":2118},[2120,2518,2519,2564],{},[2123,2520,2521,2523,2525,2538,2540,2546,2548,2550,2552,2554,2556,2558,2560,2562],{},[2126,2522,2154],{},[2130,2524,2132],{},[2526,2527,2528,2530],"mfrac",{},[2139,2529,2183],{},[2123,2531,2532,2534,2536],{},[2139,2533,2183],{},[2130,2535,2157],{},[2126,2537,2147],{},[2130,2539,2151],{"stretchy":2150},[2134,2541,2542,2544],{},[2126,2543,2128],{},[2139,2545,2141],{},[2130,2547,2157],{},[2126,2549,2147],{},[2126,2551,2160],{},[2130,2553,2144],{},[2126,2555,2419],{},[2130,2557,2144],{},[2126,2559,2424],{},[2130,2561,2163],{"stretchy":2150},[2126,2563,2428],{"mathvariant":2427},[2187,2565,2566],{"encoding":2189},"Y=\\frac{1}{1-c}(C_0-cT+I+G).",[2102,2568,2570,2588,2730,2751,2769],{"className":2569,"ariaHidden":2166},[2194],[2102,2571,2573,2576,2579,2582,2585],{"className":2572},[2198],[2102,2574],{"className":2575,"style":2203},[2202],[2102,2577,2154],{"className":2578,"style":2287},[2207,2208],[2102,2580],{"className":2581,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2583,2132],{"className":2584},[2217],[2102,2586],{"className":2587,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2589,2591,2595,2678,2681,2721,2724,2727],{"className":2590},[2198],[2102,2592],{"className":2593,"style":2594},[2202],"height:2.0908em;vertical-align:-0.7693em;",[2102,2596,2598,2602,2675],{"className":2597},[2207],[2102,2599],{"className":2600},[2308,2601],"nulldelimiter",[2102,2603,2605],{"className":2604},[2526],[2102,2606,2608,2666],{"className":2607},[2241,2242],[2102,2609,2611,2663],{"className":2610},[2246],[2102,2612,2615,2640,2651],{"className":2613,"style":2614},[2250],"height:1.3214em;",[2102,2616,2618,2622],{"style":2617},"top:-2.314em;",[2102,2619],{"className":2620,"style":2621},[2258],"height:3em;",[2102,2623,2625,2628,2631,2634,2637],{"className":2624},[2207],[2102,2626,2183],{"className":2627},[2207],[2102,2629],{"className":2630,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2632,2157],{"className":2633},[2291],[2102,2635],{"className":2636,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2638,2147],{"className":2639},[2207,2208],[2102,2641,2643,2646],{"style":2642},"top:-3.23em;",[2102,2644],{"className":2645,"style":2621},[2258],[2102,2647],{"className":2648,"style":2650},[2649],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[2102,2652,2654,2657],{"style":2653},"top:-3.677em;",[2102,2655],{"className":2656,"style":2621},[2258],[2102,2658,2660],{"className":2659},[2207],[2102,2661,2183],{"className":2662},[2207],[2102,2664,2274],{"className":2665},[2273],[2102,2667,2669],{"className":2668},[2246],[2102,2670,2673],{"className":2671,"style":2672},[2250],"height:0.7693em;",[2102,2674],{},[2102,2676],{"className":2677},[2334,2601],[2102,2679,2151],{"className":2680},[2308],[2102,2682,2684,2687],{"className":2683},[2207],[2102,2685,2128],{"className":2686,"style":2209},[2207,2208],[2102,2688,2690],{"className":2689},[2237],[2102,2691,2693,2713],{"className":2692},[2241,2242],[2102,2694,2696,2710],{"className":2695},[2246],[2102,2697,2699],{"className":2698,"style":2251},[2250],[2102,2700,2701,2704],{"style":2254},[2102,2702],{"className":2703,"style":2259},[2258],[2102,2705,2707],{"className":2706},[2263,2264,2265,2266],[2102,2708,2141],{"className":2709},[2207,2266],[2102,2711,2274],{"className":2712},[2273],[2102,2714,2716],{"className":2715},[2246],[2102,2717,2719],{"className":2718,"style":2281},[2250],[2102,2720],{},[2102,2722],{"className":2723,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2725,2157],{"className":2726},[2291],[2102,2728],{"className":2729,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2731,2733,2736,2739,2742,2745,2748],{"className":2732},[2198],[2102,2734],{"className":2735,"style":2459},[2202],[2102,2737,2147],{"className":2738},[2207,2208],[2102,2740,2160],{"className":2741,"style":2330},[2207,2208],[2102,2743],{"className":2744,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2746,2144],{"className":2747},[2291],[2102,2749],{"className":2750,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2752,2754,2757,2760,2763,2766],{"className":2753},[2198],[2102,2755],{"className":2756,"style":2459},[2202],[2102,2758,2419],{"className":2759,"style":2481},[2207,2208],[2102,2761],{"className":2762,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2764,2144],{"className":2765},[2291],[2102,2767],{"className":2768,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2770,2772,2775,2778,2781],{"className":2771},[2198],[2102,2773],{"className":2774,"style":2301},[2202],[2102,2776,2424],{"className":2777},[2207,2208],[2102,2779,2163],{"className":2780},[2334],[2102,2782,2428],{"className":2783},[2207],[1798,2785,2786,2787,2857,2858,2912],{},"因此，在其他条件不变且利率不变的短期近似下，政府购买乘数为 ",[2102,2788,2790,2817],{"className":2789},[2109],[2102,2791,2793],{"className":2792},[2113],[2115,2794,2795],{"xmlns":2117},[2120,2796,2797,2814],{},[2123,2798,2799,2801,2804,2806,2808,2810,2812],{},[2139,2800,2183],{},[2126,2802,2803],{"mathvariant":2427},"\u002F",[2130,2805,2151],{"stretchy":2150},[2139,2807,2183],{},[2130,2809,2157],{},[2126,2811,2147],{},[2130,2813,2163],{"stretchy":2150},[2187,2815,2816],{"encoding":2189},"1\u002F(1-c)",[2102,2818,2820,2845],{"className":2819,"ariaHidden":2166},[2194],[2102,2821,2823,2826,2830,2833,2836,2839,2842],{"className":2822},[2198],[2102,2824],{"className":2825,"style":2301},[2202],[2102,2827,2829],{"className":2828},[2207],"1\u002F",[2102,2831,2151],{"className":2832},[2308],[2102,2834,2183],{"className":2835},[2207],[2102,2837],{"className":2838,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2840,2157],{"className":2841},[2291],[2102,2843],{"className":2844,"style":2287},[2169],[2102,2846,2848,2851,2854],{"className":2847},[2198],[2102,2849],{"className":2850,"style":2301},[2202],[2102,2852,2147],{"className":2853},[2207,2208],[2102,2855,2163],{"className":2856},[2334],"。如果边际消费倾向 ",[2102,2859,2861,2880],{"className":2860},[2109],[2102,2862,2864],{"className":2863},[2113],[2115,2865,2866],{"xmlns":2117},[2120,2867,2868,2877],{},[2123,2869,2870,2872,2874],{},[2126,2871,2147],{},[2130,2873,2132],{},[2139,2875,2876],{},"0.75",[2187,2878,2879],{"encoding":2189},"c=0.75",[2102,2881,2883,2902],{"className":2882,"ariaHidden":2166},[2194],[2102,2884,2886,2890,2893,2896,2899],{"className":2885},[2198],[2102,2887],{"className":2888,"style":2889},[2202],"height:0.4306em;",[2102,2891,2147],{"className":2892},[2207,2208],[2102,2894],{"className":2895,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2897,2132],{"className":2898},[2217],[2102,2900],{"className":2901,"style":2213},[2169],[2102,2903,2905,2909],{"className":2904},[2198],[2102,2906],{"className":2907,"style":2908},[2202],"height:0.6444em;",[2102,2910,2876],{"className":2911},[2207],"，政府购买增加 20 亿，模型中的产出增加为 80 亿。",[2914,2915],"pyodide",{"code64":2916,"layout":2917,"locale":7,"title":2918},"ZGVmIGZpc2NhbF9tdWx0aXBsaWVyKG1wYywgY2hhbmdlX2luX2dvdmVybm1lbnRfc3BlbmRpbmcpOgogICAgbXVsdGlwbGllciA9IDEgLyAoMSAtIG1wYykKICAgIGNoYW5nZV9pbl9vdXRwdXQgPSBtdWx0aXBsaWVyICogY2hhbmdlX2luX2dvdmVybm1lbnRfc3BlbmRpbmcKICAgIHJldHVybiBtdWx0aXBsaWVyLCBjaGFuZ2VfaW5fb3V0cHV0CgptdWx0aXBsaWVyLCBvdXRwdXRfY2hhbmdlID0gZmlzY2FsX211bHRpcGxpZXIoMC43NSwgMl8wMDBfMDAwXzAwMCkKcHJpbnQoZiLotKLmlL\u002FkuZjmlbDvvJp7bXVsdGlwbGllcjouMmZ9IikKcHJpbnQoZiLmqKHlnovpooTmtYvnmoTkuqflh7rlj5jljJbvvJp7b3V0cHV0X2NoYW5nZSAvIDFfMDAwXzAwMF8wMDA6LjFmfSDljYHkur\u002FlhYMiKQ==","vertical","计算简单财政乘数",[1798,2920,2921],{},"这个结果不是政策承诺。开放经济中的进口、税收、利率上升、供给瓶颈、预期变化和债务约束都会使实际乘数不同。研究生分析还要说明乘数是结构参数、局部近似还是从历史数据中估计的对象。",[1794,2923,2924],{"id":2924},"课程章节",[1855,2926,2927,2943],{},[1858,2928,2929],{},[1861,2930,2931,2934,2937,2940],{},[1864,2932,2933],{},"章节",[1864,2935,2936],{},"主题",[1864,2938,2939],{},"核心问题",[1864,2941,2942],{},"页面",[1874,2944,2945,2963,2980,2997,3014,3031,3048,3065,3082,3099],{},[1861,2946,2947,2950,2953,2956],{},[1879,2948,2949],{},"01",[1879,2951,2952],{},"国民账户与宏观指标",[1879,2954,2955],{},"GDP、通胀、就业和财富如何测量？",[1879,2957,2958],{},[2959,2960,2962],"a",{"href":2961},".\u002F01-national-accounts","进入第一章",[1861,2964,2965,2968,2971,2974],{},[1879,2966,2967],{},"02",[1879,2969,2970],{},"消费、投资与凯恩斯交叉",[1879,2972,2973],{},"总需求如何决定短期产出？",[1879,2975,2976],{},[2959,2977,2979],{"href":2978},".\u002F02-consumption-investment","进入第二章",[1861,2981,2982,2985,2988,2991],{},[1879,2983,2984],{},"03",[1879,2986,2987],{},"货币、银行与利率",[1879,2989,2990],{},"货币如何创造，央行如何影响金融条件？",[1879,2992,2993],{},[2959,2994,2996],{"href":2995},".\u002F03-money-and-monetary-policy","进入第三章",[1861,2998,2999,3002,3005,3008],{},[1879,3000,3001],{},"04",[1879,3003,3004],{},"AD–AS、通胀与失业",[1879,3006,3007],{},"需求冲击与供给冲击如何产生不同结果？",[1879,3009,3010],{},[2959,3011,3013],{"href":3012},".\u002F04-ad-as-inflation-unemployment","进入第四章",[1861,3015,3016,3019,3022,3025],{},[1879,3017,3018],{},"05",[1879,3020,3021],{},"财政政策与债务",[1879,3023,3024],{},"稳定经济的财政空间和代价是什么？",[1879,3026,3027],{},[2959,3028,3030],{"href":3029},".\u002F05-fiscal-policy-and-debt","进入第五章",[1861,3032,3033,3036,3039,3042],{},[1879,3034,3035],{},"06",[1879,3037,3038],{},"增长、生产率与发展",[1879,3040,3041],{},"为什么长期生活水平会分化？",[1879,3043,3044],{},[2959,3045,3047],{"href":3046},".\u002F06-growth-productivity","进入第六章",[1861,3049,3050,3053,3056,3059],{},[1879,3051,3052],{},"07",[1879,3054,3055],{},"开放经济与汇率",[1879,3057,3058],{},"贸易、资本流动和货币政策如何相互制约？",[1879,3060,3061],{},[2959,3062,3064],{"href":3063},".\u002F07-open-economy","进入第七章",[1861,3066,3067,3070,3073,3076],{},[1879,3068,3069],{},"08",[1879,3071,3072],{},"宏观研究项目",[1879,3074,3075],{},"如何从事实、模型和数据形成可检验的政策论证？",[1879,3077,3078],{},[2959,3079,3081],{"href":3080},".\u002F08-macro-research-project","进入第八章",[1861,3083,3084,3087,3090,3093],{},[1879,3085,3086],{},"09",[1879,3088,3089],{},"浏览器交互实验",[1879,3091,3092],{},"如何用 Python 与 R 检验乘数、政策规则、债务、增长和冲击响应？",[1879,3094,3095],{},[2959,3096,3098],{"href":3097},".\u002F09-interactive-policy-labs","进入实验课",[1861,3100,3101,3104,3107,3110],{},[1879,3102,3103],{},"10",[1879,3105,3106],{},"前沿文献与当代案例",[1879,3108,3109],{},"疫情后通胀、非线性菲利普斯曲线与 AI 生产率怎样连接模型和证据？",[1879,3111,3112],{},[2959,3113,3115],{"href":3114},".\u002F10-frontier-literature-2026","进入前沿课",[1794,3117,3119],{"id":3118},"_13-周学习路径","13 周学习路径",[1855,3121,3122,3139],{},[1858,3123,3124],{},[1861,3125,3126,3130,3133,3136],{},[1864,3127,3129],{"align":3128},"right","周次",[1864,3131,3132],{},"本科生重点",[1864,3134,3135],{},"研究生扩展",[1864,3137,3138],{},"产出",[1874,3140,3141,3154,3168,3182,3196,3210,3224,3238,3252,3266,3279,3293,3307],{},[1861,3142,3143,3145,3148,3151],{},[1879,3144,2183],{"align":3128},[1879,3146,3147],{},"国民账户和变量定义",[1879,3149,3150],{},"账户恒等式与测量误差",[1879,3152,3153],{},"指标字典",[1861,3155,3156,3159,3162,3165],{},[1879,3157,3158],{"align":3128},"2",[1879,3160,3161],{},"GDP、通胀和失业",[1879,3163,3164],{},"价格指数、修订和潜在产出",[1879,3166,3167],{},"数据审计",[1861,3169,3170,3173,3176,3179],{},[1879,3171,3172],{"align":3128},"3",[1879,3174,3175],{},"消费和储蓄",[1879,3177,3178],{},"跨期选择与预期收入",[1879,3180,3181],{},"消费函数练习",[1861,3183,3184,3187,3190,3193],{},[1879,3185,3186],{"align":3128},"4",[1879,3188,3189],{},"投资和乘数",[1879,3191,3192],{},"利率、资本调整和不确定性",[1879,3194,3195],{},"凯恩斯交叉推导",[1861,3197,3198,3201,3204,3207],{},[1879,3199,3200],{"align":3128},"5",[1879,3202,3203],{},"货币和银行",[1879,3205,3206],{},"资产负债表、金融摩擦",[1879,3208,3209],{},"银行案例",[1861,3211,3212,3215,3218,3221],{},[1879,3213,3214],{"align":3128},"6",[1879,3216,3217],{},"货币政策",[1879,3219,3220],{},"规则、预期和传导时滞",[1879,3222,3223],{},"政策备忘录",[1861,3225,3226,3229,3232,3235],{},[1879,3227,3228],{"align":3128},"7",[1879,3230,3231],{},"AD–AS",[1879,3233,3234],{},"供给冲击、通胀预期",[1879,3236,3237],{},"冲击图解",[1861,3239,3240,3243,3246,3249],{},[1879,3241,3242],{"align":3128},"8",[1879,3244,3245],{},"财政政策",[1879,3247,3248],{},"债务动态与财政可持续性",[1879,3250,3251],{},"债务计算",[1861,3253,3254,3257,3260,3263],{},[1879,3255,3256],{"align":3128},"9",[1879,3258,3259],{},"增长模型",[1879,3261,3262],{},"Solow、内生增长与分解",[1879,3264,3265],{},"增长分解",[1861,3267,3268,3270,3273,3276],{},[1879,3269,3103],{"align":3128},[1879,3271,3272],{},"开放经济",[1879,3274,3275],{},"汇率制度与资本流动",[1879,3277,3278],{},"汇率案例",[1861,3280,3281,3284,3287,3290],{},[1879,3282,3283],{"align":3128},"11",[1879,3285,3286],{},"交互实验与实证",[1879,3288,3289],{},"乘数、债务、Solow 与局部投影",[1879,3291,3292],{},"Python\u002FR 可重复脚本",[1861,3294,3295,3298,3301,3304],{},[1879,3296,3297],{"align":3128},"12",[1879,3299,3300],{},"前沿文献与证据争论",[1879,3302,3303],{},"通胀分解、非线性与 AI 任务模型",[1879,3305,3306],{},"文献证据矩阵",[1861,3308,3309,3312,3315,3318],{},[1879,3310,3311],{"align":3128},"13",[1879,3313,3314],{},"综合项目",[1879,3316,3317],{},"机制、识别和敏感性分析",[1879,3319,3320],{},"宏观研究报告",[1794,3322,3323],{"id":3323},"宏观分析写作模板",[1798,3325,3326],{},"面对一项政策或新闻材料，按以下顺序写作：",[1818,3328,3329,3335,3341,3347,3353,3359,3365],{},[1821,3330,3331,3334],{},[2054,3332,3333],{},"定义问题："," 变量、主体、冲击和时间跨度是什么？",[1821,3336,3337,3340],{},[2054,3338,3339],{},"给出基线："," 在没有冲击时，模型或事实基线是什么？",[1821,3342,3343,3346],{},[2054,3344,3345],{},"解释机制："," 冲击通过哪个市场、价格、预期或约束传导？",[1821,3348,3349,3352],{},[2054,3350,3351],{},"区分短期与长期："," 哪些变量可以调整，哪些存在滞后？",[1821,3354,3355,3358],{},[2054,3356,3357],{},"讨论政策："," 政策工具改变了什么，是否引入新的扭曲或分配后果？",[1821,3360,3361,3364],{},[2054,3362,3363],{},"说明证据："," 哪些观察支持该机制，哪些替代解释仍然可能？",[1821,3366,3367,3370],{},[2054,3368,3369],{},"写出限制："," 模型忽略了什么，结论对哪些假设敏感？",[1794,3372,3373],{"id":3373},"推荐教材与工具",[3375,3376,3377,3380,3388,3395],"ul",{},[1821,3378,3379],{},"曼昆：《宏观经济学》：适合本科生建立概念和图形直觉。",[1821,3381,3382,3383,3387],{},"Blanchard, ",[3384,3385,3386],"em",{},"Macroeconomics","：适合把短期波动、政策和开放经济连起来。",[1821,3389,3390,3391,3394],{},"Romer, ",[3384,3392,3393],{},"Advanced Macroeconomics","：适合研究生进入增长、消费、投资和动态一般均衡。",[1821,3396,3397,3398,3401],{},"Carlin and Soskice, ",[3384,3399,3400],{},"Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability, and the Financial System","：适合连接制度、金融和宏观稳定。",[1798,3403,3404],{},"数据练习可以使用现有 Pyodide、webR 和 Chart.js 组件；研究生项目应把数据字典、代码、模型设定、图表和限制说明放在同一份可复现材料中。",[1794,3406,3407],{"id":3407},"内容支撑与使用边界",[1798,3409,3410],{},"课程中的恒等式、模型与政策结论分为三层：国民账户恒等式负责定义和核算；凯恩斯交叉、Solow、AD–AS 等模型负责澄清机制；回归、事件研究或局部投影负责把机制带回数据。恒等式不自动提供因果解释，模型参数也不能不经估计就直接当作现实数值。",[1798,3412,3413,3414,3416],{},"建议把 Blanchard 或曼昆作为本科主教材，把 Romer 与 Carlin–Soskice 作为研究生扩展，并在实证项目中同时报告数据来源、样本区间、变量单位、识别假设和敏感性分析。",[2959,3415,3089],{"href":3097},"使用合成数据帮助理解机制，不替代真实数据审计或正式因果识别。",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3418,"depth":3418,"links":3419},2,[3420,3421,3422,3423,3429,3430,3431,3432,3433,3434,3435],{"id":1796,"depth":3418,"text":1796},{"id":1813,"depth":3418,"text":1813},{"id":1853,"depth":3418,"text":1853},{"id":1904,"depth":3418,"text":1904,"children":3424},[3425,3427,3428],{"id":1908,"depth":3426,"text":1908},3,{"id":1976,"depth":3426,"text":1976},{"id":1982,"depth":3426,"text":1982},{"id":2044,"depth":3418,"text":2045},{"id":2097,"depth":3418,"text":2097},{"id":2924,"depth":3418,"text":2924},{"id":3118,"depth":3418,"text":3119},{"id":3323,"depth":3418,"text":3323},{"id":3373,"depth":3418,"text":3373},{"id":3407,"depth":3418,"text":3407},"面向本科生与研究生的宏观经济学课程，从国民账户、短期波动、政策分析到增长与开放经济。","md",{"sidebar":3439},{"order":3440},0,true,{"title":1422,"description":3436},"StPXxShOfVFZ88vHJN2B4vx4hKG6FV_5OfPonq7pXws",[3445,3447],{"title":1418,"path":1419,"stem":1420,"description":3446,"children":-1},"将微观和宏观工具结合起来，用于市场、政策和商业案例分析。",{"title":1428,"path":1429,"stem":1430,"description":3448,"children":-1},"从生产、收入和支出三种视角理解 GDP、价格指数、就业和财富。",1785754751099]