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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Python 与 R 两种实现；两段代码使用相同参数和随机种子，结果应在舍入误差范围内一致。",[1793,1797,1798],{},"代码的作用是把模型假设变得可见。它不能替代制度背景、真实数据清理或因果识别。每次运行后都要回答三件事：",[1800,1801,1802,1806,1809],"ol",{},[1803,1804,1805],"li",{},"哪个参数是模型设定，哪个量是数据或模拟结果？",[1803,1807,1808],{},"参数变化通过哪条方程改变结果？",[1803,1810,1811],{},"若换成真实宏观数据，哪些识别与测量问题会出现？",[1813,1814,1815],"h2",{"id":1815},"学习成果",[1793,1817,1818],{},"完成本章后，你应能够：",[1820,1821,1822,1825,1828,1831,1834,1837],"ul",{},[1803,1823,1824],{},"计算开放经济中的财政乘数并做参数敏感性分析；",[1803,1826,1827],{},"用 Taylor 型规则区分通胀、产出缺口和中性利率的贡献；",[1803,1829,1830],{},"递推债务率并解释利率—增长差与初级余额的作用；",[1803,1832,1833],{},"模拟 Solow 模型的过渡动态和条件收敛；",[1803,1835,1836],{},"用局部投影回归估计一个外生冲击的动态响应；",[1803,1838,1839],{},"比较 Python 与 R 输出，检查实现是否忠实于同一经济模型。",[1841,1842,1844],"tip",{"title":1843},"如何运行","点击单元右上角的“运行”按钮。首次运行会在浏览器中加载 Pyodide 或 webR；之后可以显示代码，修改参数，再次运行。所有计算都在本地浏览器完成。",[1813,1846,1848],{"id":1847},"实验一财政乘数不是一个固定常数","实验一：财政乘数不是一个固定常数",[1850,1851,1852],"h3",{"id":1852},"模型",[1793,1854,1855],{},"考虑带比例税和进口的凯恩斯交叉：",[1857,1858,1861],"span",{"className":1859},[1860],"katex-display",[1857,1862,1865,2038],{"className":1863},[1864],"katex",[1857,1866,1869],{"className":1867},[1868],"katex-mathml",[1870,1871,1874],"math",{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1875,1876,1877,2033],"semantics",{},[1878,1879,1883,1939,1991],"mtable",{"rowspacing":1880,"columnalign":1881,"columnspacing":1882},"0.25em","right 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7,2328,2330],{"className":2329},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,2331,1974],{"className":2332},[2054,2278],[1857,2334,2122],{"className":2335},[2121],[1857,2337,2339],{"className":2338},[2070],[1857,2340,2342],{"className":2341,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,2343],{},[1857,2345,1978],{"className":2346},[2347],"mopen",[1857,2349,1897],{"className":2350,"style":2091},[2054,2090],[1857,2352],{"className":2353,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2355,1932],{"className":2356},[2176],[1857,2358],{"className":2359,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2361,1985],{"className":2362,"style":2117},[2054,2090],[1857,2364,1988],{"className":2365},[2366],"mclose",[1857,2368,1938],{"className":2369},[2224],[1857,2371,2372,2375],{"style":2107},[1857,2373],{"className":2374,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2376,2378,2381,2384,2387,2390,2393,2396,2399,2403,2407,2410,2413,2416,2419,2423],{"className":2377},[2054],[1857,2379],{"className":2380},[2054],[1857,2382],{"className":2383,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,2385,1910],{"className":2386},[2163],[1857,2388],{"className":2389,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,2391,2011],{"className":2392},[2054,2090],[1857,2394,1897],{"className":2395,"style":2091},[2054,2090],[1857,2397,1938],{"className":2398},[2224],[1857,2400],{"className":2401,"style":2402},[2017],"margin-right:2em;",[1857,2404],{"className":2405,"style":2406},[2017],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[1857,2408,1935],{"className":2409,"style":2220},[2054,2090],[1857,2411],{"className":2412,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,2414,1910],{"className":2415},[2163],[1857,2417],{"className":2418,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,2420,2422],{"className":2421,"style":2091},[2054,2090],"mY",[1857,2424,2032],{"className":2425},[2054],[1857,2427,2122],{"className":2428},[2121],[1857,2430,2432],{"className":2431},[2070],[1857,2433,2435],{"className":2434,"style":2129},[2074],[1857,2436],{},[1793,2438,2439],{},"把外生支出合并后，政府支出乘数为：",[1857,2441,2443],{"className":2442},[1860],[1857,2444,2446,2508],{"className":2445},[1864],[1857,2447,2449],{"className":2448},[1868],[1870,2450,2451],{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},[1875,2452,2453,2505],{},[1903,2454,2455,2471,2473,2503],{},[2456,2457,2458,2465],"mfrac",{},[1903,2459,2460,2463],{},[1895,2461,2462],{"mathvariant":2031},"∂",[1895,2464,1897],{},[1903,2466,2467,2469],{},[1895,2468,2462],{"mathvariant":2031},[1895,2470,1924],{},[1908,2472,1910],{},[2456,2474,2475,2477],{},[1963,2476,1974],{},[1903,2478,2479,2481,2483,2489,2491,2493,2495,2497,2499,2501],{},[1963,2480,1974],{},[1908,2482,1932],{},[1958,2484,2485,2487],{},[1895,2486,1971],{},[1963,2488,1974],{},[1908,2490,1978],{"stretchy":1977},[1963,2492,1974],{},[1908,2494,1932],{},[1895,2496,2011],{},[1908,2498,1988],{"stretchy":1977},[1908,2500,1916],{},[1895,2502,2026],{},[1895,2504,2032],{"mathvariant":2031},[2034,2506,2507],{"encoding":2036},"\\frac{\\partial Y}{\\partial G}\n=\\frac{1}{1-c_1(1-t)+m}.",[1857,2509,2511,2604],{"className":2510,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,2512,2514,2518,2595,2598,2601],{"className":2513},[2045],[1857,2515],{"className":2516,"style":2517},[2049],"height:2.0574em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1857,2519,2521,2525,2592],{"className":2520},[2054],[1857,2522],{"className":2523},[2347,2524],"nulldelimiter",[1857,2526,2528],{"className":2527},[2456],[1857,2529,2531,2583],{"className":2530},[2065,2066],[1857,2532,2534,2580],{"className":2533},[2070],[1857,2535,2538,2554,2565],{"className":2536,"style":2537},[2074],"height:1.3714em;",[1857,2539,2541,2544],{"style":2540},"top:-2.314em;",[1857,2542],{"className":2543,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2545,2547,2551],{"className":2546},[2054],[1857,2548,2462],{"className":2549,"style":2550},[2054],"margin-right:0.0556em;",[1857,2552,1924],{"className":2553},[2054,2090],[1857,2555,2557,2560],{"style":2556},"top:-3.23em;",[1857,2558],{"className":2559,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2561],{"className":2562,"style":2564},[2563],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[1857,2566,2568,2571],{"style":2567},"top:-3.677em;",[1857,2569],{"className":2570,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2572,2574,2577],{"className":2573},[2054],[1857,2575,2462],{"className":2576,"style":2550},[2054],[1857,2578,1897],{"className":2579,"style":2091},[2054,2090],[1857,2581,2122],{"className":2582},[2121],[1857,2584,2586],{"className":2585},[2070],[1857,2587,2590],{"className":2588,"style":2589},[2074],"height:0.686em;",[1857,2591],{},[1857,2593],{"className":2594},[2366,2524],[1857,2596],{"className":2597,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,2599,1910],{"className":2600},[2163],[1857,2602],{"className":2603,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,2605,2607,2611,2757],{"className":2606},[2045],[1857,2608],{"className":2609,"style":2610},[2049],"height:2.2574em;vertical-align:-0.936em;",[1857,2612,2614,2617,2754],{"className":2613},[2054],[1857,2615],{"className":2616},[2347,2524],[1857,2618,2620],{"className":2619},[2456],[1857,2621,2623,2745],{"className":2622},[2065,2066],[1857,2624,2626,2742],{"className":2625},[2070],[1857,2627,2630,2723,2731],{"className":2628,"style":2629},[2074],"height:1.3214em;",[1857,2631,2632,2635],{"style":2540},[1857,2633],{"className":2634,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2636,2638,2641,2644,2647,2650,2690,2693,2696,2699,2702,2705,2708,2711,2714,2717,2720],{"className":2637},[2054],[1857,2639,1974],{"className":2640},[2054],[1857,2642],{"className":2643,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2645,1932],{"className":2646},[2176],[1857,2648],{"className":2649,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2651,2653,2656],{"className":2652},[2054],[1857,2654,1971],{"className":2655},[2054,2090],[1857,2657,2659],{"className":2658},[2254],[1857,2660,2662,2682],{"className":2661},[2065,2066],[1857,2663,2665,2679],{"className":2664},[2070],[1857,2666,2668],{"className":2667,"style":2264},[2074],[1857,2669,2670,2673],{"style":2323},[1857,2671],{"className":2672,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,2674,2676],{"className":2675},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,2677,1974],{"className":2678},[2054,2278],[1857,2680,2122],{"className":2681},[2121],[1857,2683,2685],{"className":2684},[2070],[1857,2686,2688],{"className":2687,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,2689],{},[1857,2691,1978],{"className":2692},[2347],[1857,2694,1974],{"className":2695},[2054],[1857,2697],{"className":2698,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2700,1932],{"className":2701},[2176],[1857,2703],{"className":2704,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2706,2011],{"className":2707},[2054,2090],[1857,2709,1988],{"className":2710},[2366],[1857,2712],{"className":2713,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2715,1916],{"className":2716},[2176],[1857,2718],{"className":2719,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,2721,2026],{"className":2722},[2054,2090],[1857,2724,2725,2728],{"style":2556},[1857,2726],{"className":2727,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2729],{"className":2730,"style":2564},[2563],[1857,2732,2733,2736],{"style":2567},[1857,2734],{"className":2735,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,2737,2739],{"className":2738},[2054],[1857,2740,1974],{"className":2741},[2054],[1857,2743,2122],{"className":2744},[2121],[1857,2746,2748],{"className":2747},[2070],[1857,2749,2752],{"className":2750,"style":2751},[2074],"height:0.936em;",[1857,2753],{},[1857,2755],{"className":2756},[2366,2524],[1857,2758,2032],{"className":2759},[2054],[1793,2761,2762],{},"边际消费倾向越高，收入反馈越强；税率和进口倾向越高，支出漏出越大。下面比较不同参数组合。",[2764,2765],"pyodide",{"code64":2766,"layout":2767,"locale":7,"packages":2768,"title":2769},"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","vertical","numpy, matplotlib","Python：财政乘数敏感性",[2771,2772],"web-r",{"code64":2773,"layout":2767,"locale":7,"title":2774},"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","R：财政乘数敏感性",[1850,2776,2777],{"id":2777},"结果解释",[1793,2779,2780,2781,2852],{},"若把 ",[1857,2782,2784,2802],{"className":2783},[1864],[1857,2785,2787],{"className":2786},[1868],[1870,2788,2789],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,2790,2791,2799],{},[1903,2792,2793],{},[1958,2794,2795,2797],{},[1895,2796,1971],{},[1963,2798,1974],{},[2034,2800,2801],{"encoding":2036},"c_1",[1857,2803,2805],{"className":2804,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,2806,2808,2812],{"className":2807},[2045],[1857,2809],{"className":2810,"style":2811},[2049],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1857,2813,2815,2818],{"className":2814},[2054],[1857,2816,1971],{"className":2817},[2054,2090],[1857,2819,2821],{"className":2820},[2254],[1857,2822,2824,2844],{"className":2823},[2065,2066],[1857,2825,2827,2841],{"className":2826},[2070],[1857,2828,2830],{"className":2829,"style":2264},[2074],[1857,2831,2832,2835],{"style":2323},[1857,2833],{"className":2834,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,2836,2838],{"className":2837},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,2839,1974],{"className":2840},[2054,2278],[1857,2842,2122],{"className":2843},[2121],[1857,2845,2847],{"className":2846},[2070],[1857,2848,2850],{"className":2849,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,2851],{}," 从 0.60 提高到 0.80，乘数上升，并不意味着现实政策必然产生同样变化。模型没有显式包含供给瓶颈、利率反应、债务风险、预期和政策执行时滞。研究生扩展应进一步问：参数是校准值还是估计值？乘数是否随衰退、零利率下限或汇率制度而变化？",[1850,2854,2855],{"id":2855},"修改任务",[1820,2857,2858,2861,2864],{},[1803,2859,2860],{},"把进口倾向改为 0 和 0.35，比较封闭经济与高度开放经济。",[1803,2862,2863],{},"把税率从 0.20 改为 0.40，解释自动稳定器为何降低短期波动。",[1803,2865,2866],{},"令政府支出增加 100 亿元，计算不同参数下的产出变化区间。",[1813,2868,2870],{"id":2869},"实验二taylor-型规则如何组织政策信息","实验二：Taylor 型规则如何组织政策信息",[1850,2872,1852],{"id":2873},"模型-1",[1793,2875,2876],{},"一个教学用政策规则可以写为：",[1857,2878,2880],{"className":2879},[1860],[1857,2881,2883,2975],{"className":2882},[1864],[1857,2884,2886],{"className":2885},[1868],[1870,2887,2888],{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},[1875,2889,2890,2972],{},[1903,2891,2892,2899,2901,2912,2914,2921,2923,2930,2932,2938,2940,2947,2949,2951,2958,2970],{},[1958,2893,2894,2897],{},[1895,2895,2896],{},"i",[1895,2898,2011],{},[1908,2900,1910],{},[2902,2903,2904,2907,2909],"msubsup",{},[1895,2905,2906],{},"r",[1895,2908,2011],{},[1908,2910,2911],{},"∗",[1908,2913,1916],{},[1958,2915,2916,2919],{},[1895,2917,2918],{},"π",[1895,2920,2011],{},[1908,2922,1916],{},[1958,2924,2925,2928],{},[1895,2926,2927],{},"ϕ",[1895,2929,2918],{},[1908,2931,1978],{"stretchy":1977},[1958,2933,2934,2936],{},[1895,2935,2918],{},[1895,2937,2011],{},[1908,2939,1932],{},[2941,2942,2943,2945],"msup",{},[1895,2944,2918],{},[1908,2946,2911],{},[1908,2948,1988],{"stretchy":1977},[1908,2950,1916],{},[1958,2952,2953,2955],{},[1895,2954,2927],{},[1895,2956,2957],{},"y",[1958,2959,2960,2968],{},[2961,2962,2963,2965],"mover",{"accent":1893},[1895,2964,2957],{},[1908,2966,2967],{},"~",[1895,2969,2011],{},[1908,2971,1938],{"separator":1893},[2034,2973,2974],{"encoding":2036},"i_t=r_t^*+\\pi_t\n+\\phi_\\pi(\\pi_t-\\pi^*)\n+\\phi_y\\tilde y_t,",[1857,2976,2978,3035,3107,3165,3265,3312],{"className":2977,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,2979,2981,2985,3026,3029,3032],{"className":2980},[2045],[1857,2982],{"className":2983,"style":2984},[2049],"height:0.8095em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1857,2986,2988,2991],{"className":2987},[2054],[1857,2989,2896],{"className":2990},[2054,2090],[1857,2992,2994],{"className":2993},[2254],[1857,2995,2997,3018],{"className":2996},[2065,2066],[1857,2998,3000,3015],{"className":2999},[2070],[1857,3001,3004],{"className":3002,"style":3003},[2074],"height:0.2806em;",[1857,3005,3006,3009],{"style":2323},[1857,3007],{"className":3008,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3010,3012],{"className":3011},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3013,2011],{"className":3014},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3016,2122],{"className":3017},[2121],[1857,3019,3021],{"className":3020},[2070],[1857,3022,3024],{"className":3023,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3025],{},[1857,3027],{"className":3028,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,3030,1910],{"className":3031},[2163],[1857,3033],{"className":3034,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,3036,3038,3042,3098,3101,3104],{"className":3037},[2045],[1857,3039],{"className":3040,"style":3041},[2049],"height:0.9857em;vertical-align:-0.247em;",[1857,3043,3045,3049],{"className":3044},[2054],[1857,3046,2906],{"className":3047,"style":3048},[2054,2090],"margin-right:0.0278em;",[1857,3050,3052],{"className":3051},[2254],[1857,3053,3055,3089],{"className":3054},[2065,2066],[1857,3056,3058,3086],{"className":3057},[2070],[1857,3059,3062,3074],{"className":3060,"style":3061},[2074],"height:0.7387em;",[1857,3063,3065,3068],{"style":3064},"top:-2.453em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,3066],{"className":3067,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3069,3071],{"className":3070},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3072,2011],{"className":3073},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3075,3077,3080],{"style":3076},"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,3078],{"className":3079,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3081,3083],{"className":3082},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3084,2911],{"className":3085},[2176,2278],[1857,3087,2122],{"className":3088},[2121],[1857,3090,3092],{"className":3091},[2070],[1857,3093,3096],{"className":3094,"style":3095},[2074],"height:0.247em;",[1857,3097],{},[1857,3099],{"className":3100,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3102,1916],{"className":3103},[2176],[1857,3105],{"className":3106,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3108,3110,3114,3156,3159,3162],{"className":3109},[2045],[1857,3111],{"className":3112,"style":3113},[2049],"height:0.7333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1857,3115,3117,3121],{"className":3116},[2054],[1857,3118,2918],{"className":3119,"style":3120},[2054,2090],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1857,3122,3124],{"className":3123},[2254],[1857,3125,3127,3148],{"className":3126},[2065,2066],[1857,3128,3130,3145],{"className":3129},[2070],[1857,3131,3133],{"className":3132,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,3134,3136,3139],{"style":3135},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,3137],{"className":3138,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3140,3142],{"className":3141},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3143,2011],{"className":3144},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3146,2122],{"className":3147},[2121],[1857,3149,3151],{"className":3150},[2070],[1857,3152,3154],{"className":3153,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3155],{},[1857,3157],{"className":3158,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3160,1916],{"className":3161},[2176],[1857,3163],{"className":3164,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3166,3168,3172,3213,3216,3256,3259,3262],{"className":3167},[2045],[1857,3169],{"className":3170,"style":3171},[2049],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1857,3173,3175,3178],{"className":3174},[2054],[1857,3176,2927],{"className":3177},[2054,2090],[1857,3179,3181],{"className":3180},[2254],[1857,3182,3184,3205],{"className":3183},[2065,2066],[1857,3185,3187,3202],{"className":3186},[2070],[1857,3188,3191],{"className":3189,"style":3190},[2074],"height:0.1514em;",[1857,3192,3193,3196],{"style":2323},[1857,3194],{"className":3195,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3197,3199],{"className":3198},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3200,2918],{"className":3201,"style":3120},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3203,2122],{"className":3204},[2121],[1857,3206,3208],{"className":3207},[2070],[1857,3209,3211],{"className":3210,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3212],{},[1857,3214,1978],{"className":3215},[2347],[1857,3217,3219,3222],{"className":3218},[2054],[1857,3220,2918],{"className":3221,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,3223,3225],{"className":3224},[2254],[1857,3226,3228,3248],{"className":3227},[2065,2066],[1857,3229,3231,3245],{"className":3230},[2070],[1857,3232,3234],{"className":3233,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,3235,3236,3239],{"style":3135},[1857,3237],{"className":3238,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3240,3242],{"className":3241},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3243,2011],{"className":3244},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3246,2122],{"className":3247},[2121],[1857,3249,3251],{"className":3250},[2070],[1857,3252,3254],{"className":3253,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3255],{},[1857,3257],{"className":3258,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3260,1932],{"className":3261},[2176],[1857,3263],{"className":3264,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3266,3268,3271,3300,3303,3306,3309],{"className":3267},[2045],[1857,3269],{"className":3270,"style":3171},[2049],[1857,3272,3274,3277],{"className":3273},[2054],[1857,3275,2918],{"className":3276,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,3278,3280],{"className":3279},[2254],[1857,3281,3283],{"className":3282},[2065],[1857,3284,3286],{"className":3285},[2070],[1857,3287,3289],{"className":3288,"style":3061},[2074],[1857,3290,3291,3294],{"style":3076},[1857,3292],{"className":3293,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3295,3297],{"className":3296},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3298,2911],{"className":3299},[2176,2278],[1857,3301,1988],{"className":3302},[2366],[1857,3304],{"className":3305,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3307,1916],{"className":3308},[2176],[1857,3310],{"className":3311,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,3313,3315,3319,3360,3446],{"className":3314},[2045],[1857,3316],{"className":3317,"style":3318},[2049],"height:0.9805em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1857,3320,3322,3325],{"className":3321},[2054],[1857,3323,2927],{"className":3324},[2054,2090],[1857,3326,3328],{"className":3327},[2254],[1857,3329,3331,3351],{"className":3330},[2065,2066],[1857,3332,3334,3348],{"className":3333},[2070],[1857,3335,3337],{"className":3336,"style":3190},[2074],[1857,3338,3339,3342],{"style":2323},[1857,3340],{"className":3341,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3343,3345],{"className":3344},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3346,2957],{"className":3347,"style":3120},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3349,2122],{"className":3350},[2121],[1857,3352,3354],{"className":3353},[2070],[1857,3355,3358],{"className":3356,"style":3357},[2074],"height:0.2861em;",[1857,3359],{},[1857,3361,3363,3412],{"className":3362},[2054],[1857,3364,3367],{"className":3365},[2054,3366],"accent",[1857,3368,3370,3403],{"className":3369},[2065,2066],[1857,3371,3373,3400],{"className":3372},[2070],[1857,3374,3377,3386],{"className":3375,"style":3376},[2074],"height:0.6679em;",[1857,3378,3380,3383],{"style":3379},"top:-3em;",[1857,3381],{"className":3382,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,3384,2957],{"className":3385,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,3387,3389,3392],{"style":3388},"top:-3.35em;",[1857,3390],{"className":3391,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,3393,3397],{"className":3394,"style":3396},[3395],"accent-body","left:-0.1944em;",[1857,3398,2967],{"className":3399},[2054],[1857,3401,2122],{"className":3402},[2121],[1857,3404,3406],{"className":3405},[2070],[1857,3407,3410],{"className":3408,"style":3409},[2074],"height:0.1944em;",[1857,3411],{},[1857,3413,3415],{"className":3414},[2254],[1857,3416,3418,3438],{"className":3417},[2065,2066],[1857,3419,3421,3435],{"className":3420},[2070],[1857,3422,3424],{"className":3423,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,3425,3426,3429],{"style":3135},[1857,3427],{"className":3428,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3430,3432],{"className":3431},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3433,2011],{"className":3434},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3436,2122],{"className":3437},[2121],[1857,3439,3441],{"className":3440},[2070],[1857,3442,3444],{"className":3443,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3445],{},[1857,3447,1938],{"className":3448},[2224],[1793,3450,3451,3452,3538,3539,3598,3599,3713],{},"其中 ",[1857,3453,3455,3475],{"className":3454},[1864],[1857,3456,3458],{"className":3457},[1868],[1870,3459,3460],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,3461,3462,3472],{},[1903,3463,3464],{},[2902,3465,3466,3468,3470],{},[1895,3467,2906],{},[1895,3469,2011],{},[1908,3471,2911],{},[2034,3473,3474],{"encoding":2036},"r_t^*",[1857,3476,3478],{"className":3477,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,3479,3481,3485],{"className":3480},[2045],[1857,3482],{"className":3483,"style":3484},[2049],"height:0.9357em;vertical-align:-0.247em;",[1857,3486,3488,3491],{"className":3487},[2054],[1857,3489,2906],{"className":3490,"style":3048},[2054,2090],[1857,3492,3494],{"className":3493},[2254],[1857,3495,3497,3530],{"className":3496},[2065,2066],[1857,3498,3500,3527],{"className":3499},[2070],[1857,3501,3504,3515],{"className":3502,"style":3503},[2074],"height:0.6887em;",[1857,3505,3506,3509],{"style":3064},[1857,3507],{"className":3508,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3510,3512],{"className":3511},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3513,2011],{"className":3514},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3516,3518,3521],{"style":3517},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,3519],{"className":3520,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3522,3524],{"className":3523},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3525,2911],{"className":3526},[2176,2278],[1857,3528,2122],{"className":3529},[2121],[1857,3531,3533],{"className":3532},[2070],[1857,3534,3536],{"className":3535,"style":3095},[2074],[1857,3537],{}," 是中性实际利率，",[1857,3540,3542,3560],{"className":3541},[1864],[1857,3543,3545],{"className":3544},[1868],[1870,3546,3547],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,3548,3549,3557],{},[1903,3550,3551],{},[2941,3552,3553,3555],{},[1895,3554,2918],{},[1908,3556,2911],{},[2034,3558,3559],{"encoding":2036},"\\pi^*",[1857,3561,3563],{"className":3562,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,3564,3566,3569],{"className":3565},[2045],[1857,3567],{"className":3568,"style":3503},[2049],[1857,3570,3572,3575],{"className":3571},[2054],[1857,3573,2918],{"className":3574,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,3576,3578],{"className":3577},[2254],[1857,3579,3581],{"className":3580},[2065],[1857,3582,3584],{"className":3583},[2070],[1857,3585,3587],{"className":3586,"style":3503},[2074],[1857,3588,3589,3592],{"style":3517},[1857,3590],{"className":3591,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3593,3595],{"className":3594},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3596,2911],{"className":3597},[2176,2278]," 是通胀目标，",[1857,3600,3602,3624],{"className":3601},[1864],[1857,3603,3605],{"className":3604},[1868],[1870,3606,3607],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,3608,3609,3621],{},[1903,3610,3611],{},[1958,3612,3613,3619],{},[2961,3614,3615,3617],{"accent":1893},[1895,3616,2957],{},[1908,3618,2967],{},[1895,3620,2011],{},[2034,3622,3623],{"encoding":2036},"\\tilde y_t",[1857,3625,3627],{"className":3626,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,3628,3630,3634],{"className":3629},[2045],[1857,3631],{"className":3632,"style":3633},[2049],"height:0.8623em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1857,3635,3637,3679],{"className":3636},[2054],[1857,3638,3640],{"className":3639},[2054,3366],[1857,3641,3643,3671],{"className":3642},[2065,2066],[1857,3644,3646,3668],{"className":3645},[2070],[1857,3647,3649,3657],{"className":3648,"style":3376},[2074],[1857,3650,3651,3654],{"style":3379},[1857,3652],{"className":3653,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,3655,2957],{"className":3656,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,3658,3659,3662],{"style":3388},[1857,3660],{"className":3661,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,3663,3665],{"className":3664,"style":3396},[3395],[1857,3666,2967],{"className":3667},[2054],[1857,3669,2122],{"className":3670},[2121],[1857,3672,3674],{"className":3673},[2070],[1857,3675,3677],{"className":3676,"style":3409},[2074],[1857,3678],{},[1857,3680,3682],{"className":3681},[2254],[1857,3683,3685,3705],{"className":3684},[2065,2066],[1857,3686,3688,3702],{"className":3687},[2070],[1857,3689,3691],{"className":3690,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,3692,3693,3696],{"style":3135},[1857,3694],{"className":3695,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3697,3699],{"className":3698},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3700,2011],{"className":3701},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3703,2122],{"className":3704},[2121],[1857,3706,3708],{"className":3707},[2070],[1857,3709,3711],{"className":3710,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3712],{}," 是产出缺口。规则是政策讨论的基准，不是中央银行的机械承诺。",[2764,3715],{"code64":3716,"layout":2767,"locale":7,"packages":2768,"title":3717},"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","Python：政策利率分解",[2771,3719],{"code64":3720,"layout":2767,"locale":7,"title":3721},"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","R：政策利率分解",[1850,3723,2777],{"id":3724},"结果解释-1",[1793,3726,3727],{},"规则利率上升可以来自当前通胀上升，也可以来自通胀偏离目标或正产出缺口。解释真实政策时还要考虑中性利率不可观测、金融稳定、汇率、预测而非当前通胀，以及政策传导时滞。",[1850,3729,2855],{"id":3730},"修改任务-1",[1820,3732,3733,3808,3811],{},[1803,3734,3735,3736,3807],{},"把 ",[1857,3737,3739,3757],{"className":3738},[1864],[1857,3740,3742],{"className":3741},[1868],[1870,3743,3744],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,3745,3746,3754],{},[1903,3747,3748],{},[1958,3749,3750,3752],{},[1895,3751,2927],{},[1895,3753,2918],{},[2034,3755,3756],{"encoding":2036},"\\phi_\\pi",[1857,3758,3760],{"className":3759,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,3761,3763,3767],{"className":3762},[2045],[1857,3764],{"className":3765,"style":3766},[2049],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1857,3768,3770,3773],{"className":3769},[2054],[1857,3771,2927],{"className":3772},[2054,2090],[1857,3774,3776],{"className":3775},[2254],[1857,3777,3779,3799],{"className":3778},[2065,2066],[1857,3780,3782,3796],{"className":3781},[2070],[1857,3783,3785],{"className":3784,"style":3190},[2074],[1857,3786,3787,3790],{"style":2323},[1857,3788],{"className":3789,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3791,3793],{"className":3792},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3794,2918],{"className":3795,"style":3120},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3797,2122],{"className":3798},[2121],[1857,3800,3802],{"className":3801},[2070],[1857,3803,3805],{"className":3804,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3806],{}," 改为 0.8，判断规则是否满足“通胀上升时实际利率也上升”的 Taylor 原则。",[1803,3809,3810],{},"把产出缺口全部设为 0，分离通胀项的贡献。",[1803,3812,3813],{},"设计一次供给冲击：通胀上升而产出缺口下降，解释政策权衡。",[1813,3815,3817],{"id":3816},"实验三债务可持续性是一条路径","实验三：债务可持续性是一条路径",[1850,3819,1852],{"id":3820},"模型-2",[1793,3822,3823,3824,3896,3897,3968],{},"令 ",[1857,3825,3827,3846],{"className":3826},[1864],[1857,3828,3830],{"className":3829},[1868],[1870,3831,3832],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,3833,3834,3843],{},[1903,3835,3836],{},[1958,3837,3838,3841],{},[1895,3839,3840],{},"b",[1895,3842,2011],{},[2034,3844,3845],{"encoding":2036},"b_t",[1857,3847,3849],{"className":3848,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,3850,3852,3856],{"className":3851},[2045],[1857,3853],{"className":3854,"style":3855},[2049],"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1857,3857,3859,3862],{"className":3858},[2054],[1857,3860,3840],{"className":3861},[2054,2090],[1857,3863,3865],{"className":3864},[2254],[1857,3866,3868,3888],{"className":3867},[2065,2066],[1857,3869,3871,3885],{"className":3870},[2070],[1857,3872,3874],{"className":3873,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,3875,3876,3879],{"style":2323},[1857,3877],{"className":3878,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3880,3882],{"className":3881},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3883,2011],{"className":3884},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3886,2122],{"className":3887},[2121],[1857,3889,3891],{"className":3890},[2070],[1857,3892,3894],{"className":3893,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3895],{}," 为期初政府债务占 GDP 比例，",[1857,3898,3900,3919],{"className":3899},[1864],[1857,3901,3903],{"className":3902},[1868],[1870,3904,3905],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,3906,3907,3916],{},[1903,3908,3909],{},[1958,3910,3911,3914],{},[1895,3912,3913],{},"s",[1895,3915,2011],{},[2034,3917,3918],{"encoding":2036},"s_t",[1857,3920,3922],{"className":3921,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,3923,3925,3928],{"className":3924},[2045],[1857,3926],{"className":3927,"style":2811},[2049],[1857,3929,3931,3934],{"className":3930},[2054],[1857,3932,3913],{"className":3933},[2054,2090],[1857,3935,3937],{"className":3936},[2254],[1857,3938,3940,3960],{"className":3939},[2065,2066],[1857,3941,3943,3957],{"className":3942},[2070],[1857,3944,3946],{"className":3945,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,3947,3948,3951],{"style":2323},[1857,3949],{"className":3950,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,3952,3954],{"className":3953},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,3955,2011],{"className":3956},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,3958,2122],{"className":3959},[2121],[1857,3961,3963],{"className":3962},[2070],[1857,3964,3966],{"className":3965,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,3967],{}," 为初级盈余占 GDP 比例（盈余取正），则离散时间债务动态近似为：",[1857,3970,3972],{"className":3971},[1860],[1857,3973,3975,4044],{"className":3974},[1864],[1857,3976,3978],{"className":3977},[1868],[1870,3979,3980],{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},[1875,3981,3982,4041],{},[1903,3983,3984,3996,3998,4025,4031,4033,4039],{},[1958,3985,3986,3988],{},[1895,3987,3840],{},[1903,3989,3990,3992,3994],{},[1895,3991,2011],{},[1908,3993,1916],{},[1963,3995,1974],{},[1908,3997,1910],{},[2456,3999,4000,4012],{},[1903,4001,4002,4004,4006],{},[1963,4003,1974],{},[1908,4005,1916],{},[1958,4007,4008,4010],{},[1895,4009,2906],{},[1895,4011,2011],{},[1903,4013,4014,4016,4018],{},[1963,4015,1974],{},[1908,4017,1916],{},[1958,4019,4020,4023],{},[1895,4021,4022],{},"g",[1895,4024,2011],{},[1958,4026,4027,4029],{},[1895,4028,3840],{},[1895,4030,2011],{},[1908,4032,1932],{},[1958,4034,4035,4037],{},[1895,4036,3913],{},[1895,4038,2011],{},[1895,4040,2032],{"mathvariant":2031},[2034,4042,4043],{"encoding":2036},"b_{t+1}\n=\\frac{1+r_t}{1+g_t}b_t-s_t.",[1857,4045,4047,4113,4331],{"className":4046,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,4048,4050,4054,4104,4107,4110],{"className":4049},[2045],[1857,4051],{"className":4052,"style":4053},[2049],"height:0.9028em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1857,4055,4057,4060],{"className":4056},[2054],[1857,4058,3840],{"className":4059},[2054,2090],[1857,4061,4063],{"className":4062},[2254],[1857,4064,4066,4095],{"className":4065},[2065,2066],[1857,4067,4069,4092],{"className":4068},[2070],[1857,4070,4072],{"className":4071,"style":2264},[2074],[1857,4073,4074,4077],{"style":2323},[1857,4075],{"className":4076,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4078,4080],{"className":4079},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4081,4083,4086,4089],{"className":4082},[2054,2278],[1857,4084,2011],{"className":4085},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4087,1916],{"className":4088},[2176,2278],[1857,4090,1974],{"className":4091},[2054,2278],[1857,4093,2122],{"className":4094},[2121],[1857,4096,4098],{"className":4097},[2070],[1857,4099,4102],{"className":4100,"style":4101},[2074],"height:0.2083em;",[1857,4103],{},[1857,4105],{"className":4106,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4108,1910],{"className":4109},[2163],[1857,4111],{"className":4112,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4114,4116,4120,4282,4322,4325,4328],{"className":4115},[2045],[1857,4117],{"className":4118,"style":4119},[2049],"height:2.2019em;vertical-align:-0.8804em;",[1857,4121,4123,4126,4279],{"className":4122},[2054],[1857,4124],{"className":4125},[2347,2524],[1857,4127,4129],{"className":4128},[2456],[1857,4130,4132,4270],{"className":4131},[2065,2066],[1857,4133,4135,4267],{"className":4134},[2070],[1857,4136,4138,4198,4206],{"className":4137,"style":2629},[2074],[1857,4139,4140,4143],{"style":2540},[1857,4141],{"className":4142,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,4144,4146,4149,4152,4155,4158],{"className":4145},[2054],[1857,4147,1974],{"className":4148},[2054],[1857,4150],{"className":4151,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4153,1916],{"className":4154},[2176],[1857,4156],{"className":4157,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4159,4161,4164],{"className":4160},[2054],[1857,4162,4022],{"className":4163,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,4165,4167],{"className":4166},[2254],[1857,4168,4170,4190],{"className":4169},[2065,2066],[1857,4171,4173,4187],{"className":4172},[2070],[1857,4174,4176],{"className":4175,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,4177,4178,4181],{"style":3135},[1857,4179],{"className":4180,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4182,4184],{"className":4183},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4185,2011],{"className":4186},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4188,2122],{"className":4189},[2121],[1857,4191,4193],{"className":4192},[2070],[1857,4194,4196],{"className":4195,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,4197],{},[1857,4199,4200,4203],{"style":2556},[1857,4201],{"className":4202,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,4204],{"className":4205,"style":2564},[2563],[1857,4207,4208,4211],{"style":2567},[1857,4209],{"className":4210,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,4212,4214,4217,4220,4223,4226],{"className":4213},[2054],[1857,4215,1974],{"className":4216},[2054],[1857,4218],{"className":4219,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4221,1916],{"className":4222},[2176],[1857,4224],{"className":4225,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4227,4229,4232],{"className":4228},[2054],[1857,4230,2906],{"className":4231,"style":3048},[2054,2090],[1857,4233,4235],{"className":4234},[2254],[1857,4236,4238,4259],{"className":4237},[2065,2066],[1857,4239,4241,4256],{"className":4240},[2070],[1857,4242,4244],{"className":4243,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,4245,4247,4250],{"style":4246},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,4248],{"className":4249,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4251,4253],{"className":4252},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4254,2011],{"className":4255},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4257,2122],{"className":4258},[2121],[1857,4260,4262],{"className":4261},[2070],[1857,4263,4265],{"className":4264,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,4266],{},[1857,4268,2122],{"className":4269},[2121],[1857,4271,4273],{"className":4272},[2070],[1857,4274,4277],{"className":4275,"style":4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",[1857,4384,4386,4405],{"className":4385},[1864],[1857,4387,4389],{"className":4388},[1868],[1870,4390,4391],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,4392,4393,4402],{},[1903,4394,4395,4397,4400],{},[1895,4396,2906],{},[1908,4398,4399],{},">",[1895,4401,4022],{},[2034,4403,4404],{"encoding":2036},"r>g",[1857,4406,4408,4427],{"className":4407,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,4409,4411,4415,4418,4421,4424],{"className":4410},[2045],[1857,4412],{"className":4413,"style":4414},[2049],"height:0.5782em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[1857,4416,2906],{"className":4417,"style":3048},[2054,2090],[1857,4419],{"className":4420,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4422,4399],{"className":4423},[2163],[1857,4425],{"className":4426,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4428,4430,4434],{"className":4429},[2045],[1857,4431],{"className":4432,"style":4433},[2049],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1857,4435,4022],{"className":4436,"style":3120},[2054,2090]," 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模型的过渡动态",[1850,4457,1852],{"id":4458},"模型-3",[1793,4460,4461],{},"在不显式加入人口与技术增长的教学版本中：",[1857,4463,4465],{"className":4464},[1860],[1857,4466,4468,4530],{"className":4467},[1864],[1857,4469,4471],{"className":4470},[1868],[1870,4472,4473],{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},[1875,4474,4475,4527],{},[1903,4476,4477,4490,4492,4494,4497,4506,4508,4510,4512,4514,4517,4519,4525],{},[1958,4478,4479,4482],{},[1895,4480,4481],{},"k",[1903,4483,4484,4486,4488],{},[1895,4485,2011],{},[1908,4487,1916],{},[1963,4489,1974],{},[1908,4491,1910],{},[1895,4493,3913],{},[1895,4495,4496],{},"A",[2902,4498,4499,4501,4503],{},[1895,4500,4481],{},[1895,4502,2011],{},[1895,4504,4505],{},"α",[1908,4507,1916],{},[1908,4509,1978],{"stretchy":1977},[1963,4511,1974],{},[1908,4513,1932],{},[1895,4515,4516],{},"δ",[1908,4518,1988],{"stretchy":1977},[1958,4520,4521,4523],{},[1895,4522,4481],{},[1895,4524,2011],{},[1895,4526,2032],{"mathvariant":2031},[2034,4528,4529],{"encoding":2036},"k_{t+1}=sAk_t^\\alpha+(1-\\delta)k_t.",[1857,4531,4533,4599,4675,4696],{"className":4532,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,4534,4536,4539,4590,4593,4596],{"className":4535},[2045],[1857,4537],{"className":4538,"style":4053},[2049],[1857,4540,4542,4546],{"className":4541},[2054],[1857,4543,4481],{"className":4544,"style":4545},[2054,2090],"margin-right:0.0315em;",[1857,4547,4549],{"className":4548},[2254],[1857,4550,4552,4582],{"className":4551},[2065,2066],[1857,4553,4555,4579],{"className":4554},[2070],[1857,4556,4558],{"className":4557,"style":2264},[2074],[1857,4559,4561,4564],{"style":4560},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0315em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,4562],{"className":4563,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4565,4567],{"className":4566},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4568,4570,4573,4576],{"className":4569},[2054,2278],[1857,4571,2011],{"className":4572},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4574,1916],{"className":4575},[2176,2278],[1857,4577,1974],{"className":4578},[2054,2278],[1857,4580,2122],{"className":4581},[2121],[1857,4583,4585],{"className":4584},[2070],[1857,4586,4588],{"className":4587,"style":4101},[2074],[1857,4589],{},[1857,4591],{"className":4592,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4594,1910],{"className":4595},[2163],[1857,4597],{"className":4598,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4600,4602,4606,4609,4612,4666,4669,4672],{"className":4601},[2045],[1857,4603],{"className":4604,"style":4605},[2049],"height:0.9614em;vertical-align:-0.247em;",[1857,4607,3913],{"className":4608},[2054,2090],[1857,4610,4496],{"className":4611},[2054,2090],[1857,4613,4615,4618],{"className":4614},[2054],[1857,4616,4481],{"className":4617,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,4619,4621],{"className":4620},[2254],[1857,4622,4624,4658],{"className":4623},[2065,2066],[1857,4625,4627,4655],{"className":4626},[2070],[1857,4628,4631,4643],{"className":4629,"style":4630},[2074],"height:0.7144em;",[1857,4632,4634,4637],{"style":4633},"top:-2.453em;margin-left:-0.0315em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,4635],{"className":4636,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4638,4640],{"className":4639},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4641,2011],{"className":4642},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4644,4645,4648],{"style":3076},[1857,4646],{"className":4647,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4649,4651],{"className":4650},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4652,4505],{"className":4653,"style":4654},[2054,2090,2278],"margin-right:0.0037em;",[1857,4656,2122],{"className":4657},[2121],[1857,4659,4661],{"className":4660},[2070],[1857,4662,4664],{"className":4663,"style":3095},[2074],[1857,4665],{},[1857,4667],{"className":4668,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4670,1916],{"className":4671},[2176],[1857,4673],{"className":4674,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4676,4678,4681,4684,4687,4690,4693],{"className":4677},[2045],[1857,4679],{"className":4680,"style":3171},[2049],[1857,4682,1978],{"className":4683},[2347],[1857,4685,1974],{"className":4686},[2054],[1857,4688],{"className":4689,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4691,1932],{"className":4692},[2176],[1857,4694],{"className":4695,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,4697,4699,4702,4706,4709,4749],{"className":4698},[2045],[1857,4700],{"className":4701,"style":3171},[2049],[1857,4703,4516],{"className":4704,"style":4705},[2054,2090],"margin-right:0.0379em;",[1857,4707,1988],{"className":4708},[2366],[1857,4710,4712,4715],{"className":4711},[2054],[1857,4713,4481],{"className":4714,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,4716,4718],{"className":4717},[2254],[1857,4719,4721,4741],{"className":4720},[2065,2066],[1857,4722,4724,4738],{"className":4723},[2070],[1857,4725,4727],{"className":4726,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,4728,4729,4732],{"style":4560},[1857,4730],{"className":4731,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4733,4735],{"className":4734},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4736,2011],{"className":4737},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4739,2122],{"className":4740},[2121],[1857,4742,4744],{"className":4743},[2070],[1857,4745,4747],{"className":4746,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,4748],{},[1857,4750,2032],{"className":4751},[2054],[1793,4753,4754,4755,4892],{},"稳态满足 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k^*",[1857,4795,4797,4854],{"className":4796,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,4798,4800,4804,4807,4810,4845,4848,4851],{"className":4799},[2045],[1857,4801],{"className":4802,"style":4803},[2049],"height:0.6944em;",[1857,4805,3913],{"className":4806},[2054,2090],[1857,4808,4496],{"className":4809},[2054,2090],[1857,4811,4813,4816],{"className":4812},[2054],[1857,4814,4481],{"className":4815,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,4817,4819],{"className":4818},[2254],[1857,4820,4822],{"className":4821},[2065],[1857,4823,4825],{"className":4824},[2070],[1857,4826,4828],{"className":4827,"style":3503},[2074],[1857,4829,4830,4833],{"style":3517},[1857,4831],{"className":4832,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4834,4836],{"className":4835},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4837,4839,4842],{"className":4838},[2054,2278],[1857,4840,2911],{"className":4841},[2054,2278],[1857,4843,4505],{"className":4844,"style":4654},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,4846],{"className":4847,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4849,1910],{"className":4850},[2163],[1857,4852],{"className":4853,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4855,4857,4860,4863],{"className":4856},[2045],[1857,4858],{"className":4859,"style":4803},[2049],[1857,4861,4516],{"className":4862,"style":4705},[2054,2090],[1857,4864,4866,4869],{"className":4865},[2054],[1857,4867,4481],{"className":4868,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,4870,4872],{"className":4871},[2254],[1857,4873,4875],{"className":4874},[2065],[1857,4876,4878],{"className":4877},[2070],[1857,4879,4881],{"className":4880,"style":3503},[2074],[1857,4882,4883,4886],{"style":3517},[1857,4884],{"className":4885,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4887,4889],{"className":4888},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4890,2911],{"className":4891},[2176,2278],"，即：",[1857,4894,4896],{"className":4895},[1860],[1857,4897,4899,4956],{"className":4898},[1864],[1857,4900,4902],{"className":4901},[1868],[1870,4903,4904],{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},[1875,4905,4906,4953],{},[1903,4907,4908,4914,4916,4951],{},[2941,4909,4910,4912],{},[1895,4911,4481],{},[1908,4913,2911],{},[1908,4915,1910],{},[2941,4917,4918,4934],{},[1903,4919,4920,4922,4932],{},[1908,4921,1978],{"fence":1893},[2456,4923,4924,4930],{},[1903,4925,4926,4928],{},[1895,4927,3913],{},[1895,4929,4496],{},[1895,4931,4516],{},[1908,4933,1988],{"fence":1893},[1903,4935,4936,4938,4941,4943,4945,4947,4949],{},[1963,4937,1974],{},[1895,4939,4940],{"mathvariant":2031},"\u002F",[1908,4942,1978],{"stretchy":1977},[1963,4944,1974],{},[1908,4946,1932],{},[1895,4948,4505],{},[1908,4950,1988],{"stretchy":1977},[1895,4952,2032],{"mathvariant":2031},[2034,4954,4955],{"encoding":2036},"k^*=\\left(\\frac{sA}{\\delta}\\right)^{1\u002F(1-\\alpha)}.",[1857,4957,4959,5003],{"className":4958,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,4960,4962,4965,4994,4997,5000],{"className":4961},[2045],[1857,4963],{"className":4964,"style":3061},[2049],[1857,4966,4968,4971],{"className":4967},[2054],[1857,4969,4481],{"className":4970,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,4972,4974],{"className":4973},[2254],[1857,4975,4977],{"className":4976},[2065],[1857,4978,4980],{"className":4979},[2070],[1857,4981,4983],{"className":4982,"style":3061},[2074],[1857,4984,4985,4988],{"style":3076},[1857,4986],{"className":4987,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,4989,4991],{"className":4990},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,4992,2911],{"className":4993},[2176,2278],[1857,4995],{"className":4996,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,4998,1910],{"className":4999},[2163],[1857,5001],{"className":5002,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,5004,5006,5010,5142,5145],{"className":5005},[2045],[1857,5007],{"className":5008,"style":5009},[2049],"height:2.6779em;vertical-align:-0.95em;",[1857,5011,5014,5098],{"className":5012},[5013],"minner",[1857,5015,5017,5026,5092],{"className":5016},[5013],[1857,5018,5022],{"className":5019,"style":5021},[2347,5020],"delimcenter","top:0em;",[1857,5023,1978],{"className":5024},[5025,2277],"delimsizing",[1857,5027,5029,5032,5089],{"className":5028},[2054],[1857,5030],{"className":5031},[2347,2524],[1857,5033,5035],{"className":5034},[2456],[1857,5036,5038,5081],{"className":5037},[2065,2066],[1857,5039,5041,5078],{"className":5040},[2070],[1857,5042,5045,5056,5064],{"className":5043,"style":5044},[2074],"height:1.3603em;",[1857,5046,5047,5050],{"style":2540},[1857,5048],{"className":5049,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,5051,5053],{"className":5052},[2054],[1857,5054,4516],{"className":5055,"style":4705},[2054,2090],[1857,5057,5058,5061],{"style":2556},[1857,5059],{"className":5060,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,5062],{"className":5063,"style":2564},[2563],[1857,5065,5066,5069],{"style":2567},[1857,5067],{"className":5068,"style":2083},[2082],[1857,5070,5072,5075],{"className":5071},[2054],[1857,5073,3913],{"className":5074},[2054,2090],[1857,5076,4496],{"className":5077},[2054,2090],[1857,5079,2122],{"className":5080},[2121],[1857,5082,5084],{"className":5083},[2070],[1857,5085,5087],{"className":5086,"style":2589},[2074],[1857,5088],{},[1857,5090],{"className":5091},[2366,2524],[1857,5093,5095],{"className":5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分别估计：",[1857,5203,5205],{"className":5204},[1860],[1857,5206,5208,5302],{"className":5207},[1864],[1857,5209,5211],{"className":5210},[1868],[1870,5212,5213],{"xmlns":1872,"display":1873},[1875,5214,5215,5299],{},[1903,5216,5217,5229,5231,5237,5239,5246,5248,5250,5253,5255,5261,5263,5270,5282,5284,5297],{},[1958,5218,5219,5221],{},[1895,5220,2957],{},[1903,5222,5223,5225,5227],{},[1895,5224,2011],{},[1908,5226,1916],{},[1895,5228,5186],{},[1908,5230,1910],{},[1958,5232,5233,5235],{},[1895,5234,4505],{},[1895,5236,5186],{},[1908,5238,1916],{},[1958,5240,5241,5244],{},[1895,5242,5243],{},"β",[1895,5245,5186],{},[1895,5247,3913],{},[1895,5249,5186],{},[1895,5251,5252],{},"o",[1895,5254,1971],{},[1958,5256,5257,5259],{},[1895,5258,4481],{},[1895,5260,2011],{},[1908,5262,1916],{},[1958,5264,5265,5268],{},[1895,5266,5267],{},"γ",[1895,5269,5186],{},[1958,5271,5272,5274],{},[1895,5273,2957],{},[1903,5275,5276,5278,5280],{},[1895,5277,2011],{},[1908,5279,1932],{},[1963,5281,1974],{},[1908,5283,1916],{},[1958,5285,5286,5289],{},[1895,5287,5288],{},"u",[1903,5290,5291,5293,5295],{},[1895,5292,2011],{},[1908,5294,1916],{},[1895,5296,5186],{},[1895,5298,2032],{"mathvariant":2031},[2034,5300,5301],{"encoding":2036},"y_{t+h}\n=\\alpha_h+\\beta_h shock_t+\\gamma_h y_{t-1}+u_{t+h}.",[1857,5303,5305,5371,5427,5534,5640],{"className":5304,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,5306,5308,5312,5362,5365,5368],{"className":5307},[2045],[1857,5309],{"className":5310,"style":5311},[2049],"height:0.6389em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1857,5313,5315,5318],{"className":5314},[2054],[1857,5316,2957],{"className":5317,"style":3120},[2054,2090],[1857,5319,5321],{"className":5320},[2254],[1857,5322,5324,5354],{"className":5323},[2065,2066],[1857,5325,5327,5351],{"className":5326},[2070],[1857,5328,5331],{"className":5329,"style":5330},[2074],"height:0.3361em;",[1857,5332,5333,5336],{"style":3135},[1857,5334],{"className":5335,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,5337,5339],{"className":5338},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,5340,5342,5345,5348],{"className":5341},[2054,2278],[1857,5343,2011],{"className":5344},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5346,1916],{"className":5347},[2176,2278],[1857,5349,5186],{"className":5350},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5352,2122],{"className":5353},[2121],[1857,5355,5357],{"className":5356},[2070],[1857,5358,5360],{"className":5359,"style":4101},[2074],[1857,5361],{},[1857,5363],{"className":5364,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,5366,1910],{"className":5367},[2163],[1857,5369],{"className":5370,"style":2159},[2017],[1857,5372,5374,5377,5418,5421,5424],{"className":5373},[2045],[1857,5375],{"className":5376,"style":3113},[2049],[1857,5378,5380,5383],{"className":5379},[2054],[1857,5381,4505],{"className":5382,"style":4654},[2054,2090],[1857,5384,5386],{"className":5385},[2254],[1857,5387,5389,5410],{"className":5388},[2065,2066],[1857,5390,5392,5407],{"className":5391},[2070],[1857,5393,5395],{"className":5394,"style":5330},[2074],[1857,5396,5398,5401],{"style":5397},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,5399],{"className":5400,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,5402,5404],{"className":5403},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,5405,5186],{"className":5406},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5408,2122],{"className":5409},[2121],[1857,5411,5413],{"className":5412},[2070],[1857,5414,5416],{"className":5415,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,5417],{},[1857,5419],{"className":5420,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,5422,1916],{"className":5423},[2176],[1857,5425],{"className":5426,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,5428,5430,5433,5475,5478,5481,5485,5525,5528,5531],{"className":5429},[2045],[1857,5431],{"className":5432,"style":3766},[2049],[1857,5434,5436,5440],{"className":5435},[2054],[1857,5437,5243],{"className":5438,"style":5439},[2054,2090],"margin-right:0.0528em;",[1857,5441,5443],{"className":5442},[2254],[1857,5444,5446,5467],{"className":5445},[2065,2066],[1857,5447,5449,5464],{"className":5448},[2070],[1857,5450,5452],{"className":5451,"style":5330},[2074],[1857,5453,5455,5458],{"style":5454},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0528em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,5456],{"className":5457,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,5459,5461],{"className":5460},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,5462,5186],{"className":5463},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5465,2122],{"className":5466},[2121],[1857,5468,5470],{"className":5469},[2070],[1857,5471,5473],{"className":5472,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,5474],{},[1857,5476,3913],{"className":5477},[2054,2090],[1857,5479,5186],{"className":5480},[2054,2090],[1857,5482,5484],{"className":5483},[2054,2090],"oc",[1857,5486,5488,5491],{"className":5487},[2054],[1857,5489,4481],{"className":5490,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,5492,5494],{"className":5493},[2254],[1857,5495,5497,5517],{"className":5496},[2065,2066],[1857,5498,5500,5514],{"className":5499},[2070],[1857,5501,5503],{"className":5502,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,5504,5505,5508],{"style":4560},[1857,5506],{"className":5507,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,5509,5511],{"className":5510},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,5512,2011],{"className":5513},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5515,2122],{"className":5516},[2121],[1857,5518,5520],{"className":5519},[2070],[1857,5521,5523],{"className":5522,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,5524],{},[1857,5526],{"className":5527,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,5529,1916],{"className":5530},[2176],[1857,5532],{"className":5533,"style":2091},[2017],[1857,5535,5537,5541,5582,5631,5634,5637],{"className":5536},[2045],[1857,5538],{"className":5539,"style":5540},[2049],"height:0.7917em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1857,5542,5544,5547],{"className":5543},[2054],[1857,5545,5267],{"className":5546,"style":2550},[2054,2090],[1857,5548,5550],{"className":5549},[2254],[1857,5551,5553,5574],{"className":5552},[2065,2066],[1857,5554,5556,5571],{"className":5555},[2070],[1857,5557,5559],{"className":5558,"style":5330},[2074],[1857,5560,5562,5565],{"style":5561},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0556em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1857,5563],{"className":5564,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,5566,5568],{"className":5567},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,5569,5186],{"className":5570},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5572,2122],{"className":5573},[2121],[1857,5575,5577],{"className":5576},[2070],[1857,5578,5580],{"className":5579,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,5581],{},[1857,5583,5585,5588],{"className":5584},[2054],[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描述结果变量在第 ",[1857,5772,5774,5787],{"className":5773},[1864],[1857,5775,5777],{"className":5776},[1868],[1870,5778,5779],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,5780,5781,5785],{},[1903,5782,5783],{},[1895,5784,5186],{},[2034,5786,5186],{"encoding":2036},[1857,5788,5790],{"className":5789,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,5791,5793,5796],{"className":5792},[2045],[1857,5794],{"className":5795,"style":4803},[2049],[1857,5797,5186],{"className":5798},[2054,2090]," 期对冲击的响应。只有当 ",[1857,5801,5803,5829],{"className":5802},[1864],[1857,5804,5806],{"className":5805},[1868],[1870,5807,5808],{"xmlns":1872},[1875,5809,5810,5826],{},[1903,5811,5812,5814,5816,5818,5820],{},[1895,5813,3913],{},[1895,5815,5186],{},[1895,5817,5252],{},[1895,5819,1971],{},[1958,5821,5822,5824],{},[1895,5823,4481],{},[1895,5825,2011],{},[2034,5827,5828],{"encoding":2036},"shock_t",[1857,5830,5832],{"className":5831,"ariaHidden":1893},[2041],[1857,5833,5835,5838,5841,5844,5847],{"className":5834},[2045],[1857,5836],{"className":5837,"style":3855},[2049],[1857,5839,3913],{"className":5840},[2054,2090],[1857,5842,5186],{"className":5843},[2054,2090],[1857,5845,5484],{"className":5846},[2054,2090],[1857,5848,5850,5853],{"className":5849},[2054],[1857,5851,4481],{"className":5852,"style":4545},[2054,2090],[1857,5854,5856],{"className":5855},[2254],[1857,5857,5859,5879],{"className":5858},[2065,2066],[1857,5860,5862,5876],{"className":5861},[2070],[1857,5863,5865],{"className":5864,"style":3003},[2074],[1857,5866,5867,5870],{"style":4560},[1857,5868],{"className":5869,"style":2271},[2082],[1857,5871,5873],{"className":5872},[2275,2276,2277,2278],[1857,5874,2011],{"className":5875},[2054,2090,2278],[1857,5877,2122],{"className":5878},[2121],[1857,5880,5882],{"className":5881},[2070],[1857,5883,5885],{"className":5884,"style":2291},[2074],[1857,5886],{}," 在给定控制后可视为外生时，它才有因果解释。下面的冲击由随机数生成，因此外生性在模拟中成立。",[2764,5889],{"code64":5890,"layout":2767,"locale":7,"packages":5891,"title":5892},"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","numpy, statsmodels, matplotlib","Python：局部投影冲击响应",[2771,5894],{"code64":5895,"layout":2767,"locale":7,"title":5896},"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","R：局部投影冲击响应",[1850,5898,5899],{"id":5899},"研究生审计",[1793,5901,5902],{},"这个 R 示例使用普通标准误，Python 示例使用 HC1；真实局部投影中的残差跨期重叠，通常需要 HAC、Bootstrap 或其他适合时间依赖的推断。还应说明冲击来自叙事识别、高频意外、符号限制、外部工具还是递归排序。图形本身不能证明冲击外生。",[1813,5904,5905],{"id":5905},"综合作业",[1793,5907,5908],{},"从五个实验中选择一个，提交一份 800—1200 字分析：",[1800,5910,5911,5914,5917,5920,5923,5926],{},[1803,5912,5913],{},"写出模型、参数和结果变量；",[1803,5915,5916],{},"复现基准代码并保存输出；",[1803,5918,5919],{},"修改至少两个参数，解释变化方向；",[1803,5921,5922],{},"指出模型省略的三个现实机制；",[1803,5924,5925],{},"说明若使用真实数据，需要什么数据、识别和标准误；",[1803,5927,5928],{},"比较 Python 与 R 结果，解释任何差异。",[1813,5930,5931],{"id":5931},"进一步阅读",[1820,5933,5934,5942,5949,5952,5959],{},[1803,5935,5936,5937,5941],{},"Blanchard, ",[5938,5939,5940],"em",{},"Macroeconomics","：短期波动、政策和开放经济基线；",[1803,5943,5944,5945,5948],{},"Romer, ",[5938,5946,5947],{},"Advanced Macroeconomics","：增长、消费、政策与动态模型；",[1803,5950,5951],{},"Jordà (2005), “Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections”；",[1803,5953,5954,5955,5958],{},"IMF, ",[5938,5956,5957],{},"Fiscal Monitor"," 方法附录：债务动态与情景分析；",[1803,5960,5961],{},"Taylor (1993), “Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice”。",[1793,5963,5964,5969,5970],{},[5965,5966,5968],"a",{"href":5967},".\u002F","返回课程首页"," · ",[5965,5971,5973],{"href":5972},".\u002F08-macro-research-project","进入宏观研究项目",{"title":10,"searchDepth":5975,"depth":5975,"links":5976},2,[5977,5978,5984,5989,5993,5997,6001,6002],{"id":1815,"depth":5975,"text":1815},{"id":1847,"depth":5975,"text":1848,"children":5979},[5980,5982,5983],{"id":1852,"depth":5981,"text":1852},3,{"id":2777,"depth":5981,"text":2777},{"id":2855,"depth":5981,"text":2855},{"id":2869,"depth":5975,"text":2870,"children":5985},[5986,5987,5988],{"id":2873,"depth":5981,"text":1852},{"id":3724,"depth":5981,"text":2777},{"id":3730,"depth":5981,"text":2855},{"id":3816,"depth":5975,"text":3817,"children":5990},[5991,5992],{"id":3820,"depth":5981,"text":1852},{"id":4448,"depth":5981,"text":2777},{"id":4454,"depth":5975,"text":4455,"children":5994},[5995,5996],{"id":4458,"depth":5981,"text":1852},{"id":5158,"depth":5981,"text":2777},{"id":5164,"depth":5975,"text":5165,"children":5998},[5999,6000],{"id":5168,"depth":5981,"text":5168},{"id":5899,"depth":5981,"text":5899},{"id":5905,"depth":5975,"text":5905},{"id":5931,"depth":5975,"text":5931},"使用可点击运行的 Python 与 R 单元理解财政乘数、Taylor 规则、债务动态、Solow 增长和局部投影。","md",{"sidebar":6006},{"order":6007},9,true,{"title":1460,"description":6003},"QlgM0TmUpnCAJOnZr9n7WUqCzLLWQBhoG8QjTR2i0S4",[6012,6014],{"title":1456,"path":1457,"stem":1458,"description":6013,"children":-1},"把宏观事实、理论机制、数据和政策反事实组织成可复现研究。",{"title":1464,"path":1465,"stem":1466,"description":6015,"children":-1},"用近期一手研究深入理解疫情后通胀、非线性菲利普斯曲线与人工智能的宏观生产率效应。",1785754750881]