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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":1452,"body":1785,"description":3314,"extension":3315,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":3316,"navigation":1782,"path":1453,"published":3317,"seo":3318,"stem":1454,"__hash__":3319},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fmacroeconomics\u002F07-open-economy.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3299},"minimark",[1788,1792,1797,1801,1804,1823,1827,1830,1999,2002,2108,2111,2200,2203,2206,2210,2272,2275,2467,2559,2563,2566,2569,2573,2576,2733,2736,2740,2743,2746,3093,3096,3100,3103,3115,3118,3122,3125,3142,3145,3148,3165,3168,3293,3296],[1789,1790,1452],"h1",{"id":1791},"第七章开放经济汇率与国际收支",[1793,1794,1796],"h2",{"id":1795},"_1-一个国家为什么不能只看国内市场","1. 一个国家为什么不能只看国内市场",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"开放经济中的消费、投资、政府支出和生产会与世界其他地区发生联系。进口是国内支出的组成部分，却不是国内生产；出口是国外对本国生产的支出。资本流动还会改变国内投资、利率和汇率。",[1793,1802,1803],{"id":1803},"学习目标",[1805,1806,1807,1811,1814,1817,1820],"ul",{},[1808,1809,1810],"li",{},"写出净出口和经常账户的基本关系；",[1808,1812,1813],{},"区分名义汇率、实际汇率、升值和贬值；",[1808,1815,1816],{},"解释购买力平价的含义与限制；",[1808,1818,1819],{},"讨论资本流动、利差和风险溢价；",[1808,1821,1822],{},"用“不可能三角”分析汇率制度、资本自由流动和货币政策的关系。",[1793,1824,1826],{"id":1825},"_2-国民收入恒等式与经常账户","2. 国民收入恒等式与经常账户",[1798,1828,1829],{},"开放经济支出恒等式为：",[1831,1832,1835],"span",{"className":1833},[1834],"katex-display",[1831,1836,1839,1893],{"className":1837},[1838],"katex",[1831,1840,1843],{"className":1841},[1842],"katex-mathml",[1844,1845,1848],"math",{"xmlns":1846,"display":1847},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1849,1850,1851,1888],"semantics",{},[1852,1853,1854,1858,1862,1865,1868,1871,1873,1876,1878,1881,1884],"mrow",{},[1855,1856,1857],"mi",{},"Y",[1859,1860,1861],"mo",{},"=",[1855,1863,1864],{},"C",[1859,1866,1867],{},"+",[1855,1869,1870],{},"I",[1859,1872,1867],{},[1855,1874,1875],{},"G",[1859,1877,1867],{},[1855,1879,1880],{},"N",[1855,1882,1883],{},"X",[1855,1885,1887],{"mathvariant":1886},"normal",".",[1889,1890,1892],"annotation",{"encoding":1891},"application\u002Fx-tex","Y=C+I+G+NX.",[1831,1894,1898,1925,1946,1965,1983],{"className":1895,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],"katex-html","true",[1831,1899,1902,1907,1913,1918,1922],{"className":1900},[1901],"base",[1831,1903],{"className":1904,"style":1906},[1905],"strut","height:0.6833em;",[1831,1908,1857],{"className":1909,"style":1912},[1910,1911],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.2222em;",[1831,1914],{"className":1915,"style":1917},[1916],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1831,1919,1861],{"className":1920},[1921],"mrel",[1831,1923],{"className":1924,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,1926,1928,1932,1936,1939,1943],{"className":1927},[1901],[1831,1929],{"className":1930,"style":1931},[1905],"height:0.7667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1831,1933,1864],{"className":1934,"style":1935},[1910,1911],"margin-right:0.0715em;",[1831,1937],{"className":1938,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,1940,1867],{"className":1941},[1942],"mbin",[1831,1944],{"className":1945,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,1947,1949,1952,1956,1959,1962],{"className":1948},[1901],[1831,1950],{"className":1951,"style":1931},[1905],[1831,1953,1870],{"className":1954,"style":1955},[1910,1911],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[1831,1957],{"className":1958,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,1960,1867],{"className":1961},[1942],[1831,1963],{"className":1964,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,1966,1968,1971,1974,1977,1980],{"className":1967},[1901],[1831,1969],{"className":1970,"style":1931},[1905],[1831,1972,1875],{"className":1973},[1910,1911],[1831,1975],{"className":1976,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,1978,1867],{"className":1979},[1942],[1831,1981],{"className":1982,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,1984,1986,1989,1993,1996],{"className":1985},[1901],[1831,1987],{"className":1988,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,1990,1880],{"className":1991,"style":1992},[1910,1911],"margin-right:0.109em;",[1831,1994,1883],{"className":1995,"style":1955},[1910,1911],[1831,1997,1887],{"className":1998},[1910],[1798,2000,2001],{},"国民储蓄为：",[1831,2003,2005],{"className":2004},[1834],[1831,2006,2008,2038],{"className":2007},[1838],[1831,2009,2011],{"className":2010},[1842],[1844,2012,2013],{"xmlns":1846,"display":1847},[1849,2014,2015,2035],{},[1852,2016,2017,2020,2022,2024,2027,2029,2031,2033],{},[1855,2018,2019],{},"S",[1859,2021,1861],{},[1855,2023,1857],{},[1859,2025,2026],{},"−",[1855,2028,1864],{},[1859,2030,2026],{},[1855,2032,1875],{},[1855,2034,1887],{"mathvariant":1886},[1889,2036,2037],{"encoding":1891},"S=Y-C-G.",[1831,2039,2041,2060,2078,2096],{"className":2040,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2042,2044,2047,2051,2054,2057],{"className":2043},[1901],[1831,2045],{"className":2046,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2048,2019],{"className":2049,"style":2050},[1910,1911],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[1831,2052],{"className":2053,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2055,1861],{"className":2056},[1921],[1831,2058],{"className":2059,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2061,2063,2066,2069,2072,2075],{"className":2062},[1901],[1831,2064],{"className":2065,"style":1931},[1905],[1831,2067,1857],{"className":2068,"style":1912},[1910,1911],[1831,2070],{"className":2071,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2073,2026],{"className":2074},[1942],[1831,2076],{"className":2077,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2079,2081,2084,2087,2090,2093],{"className":2080},[1901],[1831,2082],{"className":2083,"style":1931},[1905],[1831,2085,1864],{"className":2086,"style":1935},[1910,1911],[1831,2088],{"className":2089,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2091,2026],{"className":2092},[1942],[1831,2094],{"className":2095,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2097,2099,2102,2105],{"className":2098},[1901],[1831,2100],{"className":2101,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2103,1875],{"className":2104},[1910,1911],[1831,2106,1887],{"className":2107},[1910],[1798,2109,2110],{},"因此：",[1831,2112,2114],{"className":2113},[1834],[1831,2115,2117,2144],{"className":2116},[1838],[1831,2118,2120],{"className":2119},[1842],[1844,2121,2122],{"xmlns":1846,"display":1847},[1849,2123,2124,2141],{},[1852,2125,2126,2128,2130,2132,2134,2136,2138],{},[1855,2127,2019],{},[1859,2129,2026],{},[1855,2131,1870],{},[1859,2133,1861],{},[1855,2135,1880],{},[1855,2137,1883],{},[1859,2139,2140],{"separator":1897},",",[1889,2142,2143],{"encoding":1891},"S-I=NX,",[1831,2145,2147,2165,2183],{"className":2146,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2148,2150,2153,2156,2159,2162],{"className":2149},[1901],[1831,2151],{"className":2152,"style":1931},[1905],[1831,2154,2019],{"className":2155,"style":2050},[1910,1911],[1831,2157],{"className":2158,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2160,2026],{"className":2161},[1942],[1831,2163],{"className":2164,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2166,2168,2171,2174,2177,2180],{"className":2167},[1901],[1831,2169],{"className":2170,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2172,1870],{"className":2173,"style":1955},[1910,1911],[1831,2175],{"className":2176,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2178,1861],{"className":2179},[1921],[1831,2181],{"className":2182,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2184,2186,2190,2193,2196],{"className":2185},[1901],[1831,2187],{"className":2188,"style":2189},[1905],"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1831,2191,1880],{"className":2192,"style":1992},[1910,1911],[1831,2194,1883],{"className":2195,"style":1955},[1910,1911],[1831,2197,2140],{"className":2198},[2199],"mpunct",[1798,2201,2202],{},"在忽略净要素收入和转移的简化下，储蓄超过国内投资的部分对应净出口；国内投资超过储蓄需要国外融资。",[1798,2204,2205],{},"这是一种账户恒等式，不是说贸易顺差必然“好”、逆差必然“坏”。福利分析要回到消费、投资、生产率、分配、融资风险和跨期资源配置。",[1793,2207,2209],{"id":2208},"_3-汇率的定义","3. 汇率的定义",[1798,2211,2212,2213,2242,2243,2271],{},"若名义汇率 ",[1831,2214,2216,2230],{"className":2215},[1838],[1831,2217,2219],{"className":2218},[1842],[1844,2220,2221],{"xmlns":1846},[1849,2222,2223,2228],{},[1852,2224,2225],{},[1855,2226,2227],{},"E",[1889,2229,2227],{"encoding":1891},[1831,2231,2233],{"className":2232,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2234,2236,2239],{"className":2235},[1901],[1831,2237],{"className":2238,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2240,2227],{"className":2241,"style":2050},[1910,1911]," 定义为一单位外币兑换的本币数量，则 ",[1831,2244,2246,2259],{"className":2245},[1838],[1831,2247,2249],{"className":2248},[1842],[1844,2250,2251],{"xmlns":1846},[1849,2252,2253,2257],{},[1852,2254,2255],{},[1855,2256,2227],{},[1889,2258,2227],{"encoding":1891},[1831,2260,2262],{"className":2261,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2263,2265,2268],{"className":2264},[1901],[1831,2266],{"className":2267,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2269,2227],{"className":2270,"style":2050},[1910,1911]," 上升表示本币贬值；若定义反过来，方向会相反。写作时一定要先写单位。",[1798,2273,2274],{},"实际汇率可写为：",[1831,2276,2278],{"className":2277},[1834],[1831,2279,2281,2316],{"className":2280},[1838],[1831,2282,2284],{"className":2283},[1842],[1844,2285,2286],{"xmlns":1846,"display":1847},[1849,2287,2288,2313],{},[1852,2289,2290,2293,2295,2297,2311],{},[1855,2291,2292],{},"q",[1859,2294,1861],{},[1855,2296,2227],{},[2298,2299,2300,2309],"mfrac",{},[2301,2302,2303,2306],"msup",{},[1855,2304,2305],{},"P",[1859,2307,2308],{},"∗",[1855,2310,2305],{},[1859,2312,2140],{"separator":1897},[1889,2314,2315],{"encoding":1891},"q=E\\frac{P^*}{P},",[1831,2317,2319,2339],{"className":2318,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2320,2322,2326,2330,2333,2336],{"className":2321},[1901],[1831,2323],{"className":2324,"style":2325},[1905],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1831,2327,2292],{"className":2328,"style":2329},[1910,1911],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1831,2331],{"className":2332,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2334,1861],{"className":2335},[1921],[1831,2337],{"className":2338,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2340,2342,2346,2349,2464],{"className":2341},[1901],[1831,2343],{"className":2344,"style":2345},[1905],"height:2.0517em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1831,2347,2227],{"className":2348,"style":2050},[1910,1911],[1831,2350,2352,2357,2460],{"className":2351},[1910],[1831,2353],{"className":2354},[2355,2356],"mopen","nulldelimiter",[1831,2358,2360],{"className":2359},[2298],[1831,2361,2365,2451],{"className":2362},[2363,2364],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1831,2366,2369,2446],{"className":2367},[2368],"vlist-r",[1831,2370,2374,2389,2400],{"className":2371,"style":2373},[2372],"vlist","height:1.3657em;",[1831,2375,2377,2382],{"style":2376},"top:-2.314em;",[1831,2378],{"className":2379,"style":2381},[2380],"pstrut","height:3em;",[1831,2383,2385],{"className":2384},[1910],[1831,2386,2305],{"className":2387,"style":2388},[1910,1911],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[1831,2390,2392,2395],{"style":2391},"top:-3.23em;",[1831,2393],{"className":2394,"style":2381},[2380],[1831,2396],{"className":2397,"style":2399},[2398],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[1831,2401,2403,2406],{"style":2402},"top:-3.677em;",[1831,2404],{"className":2405,"style":2381},[2380],[1831,2407,2409],{"className":2408},[1910],[1831,2410,2412,2415],{"className":2411},[1910],[1831,2413,2305],{"className":2414,"style":2388},[1910,1911],[1831,2416,2419],{"className":2417},[2418],"msupsub",[1831,2420,2422],{"className":2421},[2363],[1831,2423,2425],{"className":2424},[2368],[1831,2426,2429],{"className":2427,"style":2428},[2372],"height:0.6887em;",[1831,2430,2432,2436],{"style":2431},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1831,2433],{"className":2434,"style":2435},[2380],"height:2.7em;",[1831,2437,2443],{"className":2438},[2439,2440,2441,2442],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1831,2444,2308],{"className":2445},[1942,2442],[1831,2447,2450],{"className":2448},[2449],"vlist-s","​",[1831,2452,2454],{"className":2453},[2368],[1831,2455,2458],{"className":2456,"style":2457},[2372],"height:0.686em;",[1831,2459],{},[1831,2461],{"className":2462},[2463,2356],"mclose",[1831,2465,2140],{"className":2466},[2199],[1798,2468,2469,2470,2529,2530,2558],{},"其中 ",[1831,2471,2473,2491],{"className":2472},[1838],[1831,2474,2476],{"className":2475},[1842],[1844,2477,2478],{"xmlns":1846},[1849,2479,2480,2488],{},[1852,2481,2482],{},[2301,2483,2484,2486],{},[1855,2485,2305],{},[1859,2487,2308],{},[1889,2489,2490],{"encoding":1891},"P^*",[1831,2492,2494],{"className":2493,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2495,2497,2500],{"className":2496},[1901],[1831,2498],{"className":2499,"style":2428},[1905],[1831,2501,2503,2506],{"className":2502},[1910],[1831,2504,2305],{"className":2505,"style":2388},[1910,1911],[1831,2507,2509],{"className":2508},[2418],[1831,2510,2512],{"className":2511},[2363],[1831,2513,2515],{"className":2514},[2368],[1831,2516,2518],{"className":2517,"style":2428},[2372],[1831,2519,2520,2523],{"style":2431},[1831,2521],{"className":2522,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,2524,2526],{"className":2525},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,2527,2308],{"className":2528},[1942,2442]," 是外国价格水平，",[1831,2531,2533,2546],{"className":2532},[1838],[1831,2534,2536],{"className":2535},[1842],[1844,2537,2538],{"xmlns":1846},[1849,2539,2540,2544],{},[1852,2541,2542],{},[1855,2543,2305],{},[1889,2545,2305],{"encoding":1891},[1831,2547,2549],{"className":2548,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2550,2552,2555],{"className":2551},[1901],[1831,2553],{"className":2554,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2556,2305],{"className":2557,"style":2388},[1910,1911]," 是本国价格水平。实际汇率描述的是国外商品相对于国内商品的价格，不只是货币市场报价。",[1793,2560,2562],{"id":2561},"_4-升值贬值与贸易","4. 升值、贬值与贸易",[1798,2564,2565],{},"本币贬值通常提高进口品本币价格、降低本国产品的外币价格，可能提高出口、抑制进口。但贸易量的响应取决于需求弹性、合同期限、生产能力、进口投入和企业定价。",[1798,2567,2568],{},"短期内，进口账单可能先上升，之后贸易量才调整，形成所谓 J 曲线可能性。若出口和进口需求足够有弹性，贬值改善净出口的条件通常更容易满足；若进口是生产必需品，贬值也可能提高国内成本和通胀。",[1793,2570,2572],{"id":2571},"_5-购买力平价","5. 购买力平价",[1798,2574,2575],{},"绝对购买力平价主张汇率应使可比商品篮子价格相等：",[1831,2577,2579],{"className":2578},[1834],[1831,2580,2582,2611],{"className":2581},[1838],[1831,2583,2585],{"className":2584},[1842],[1844,2586,2587],{"xmlns":1846,"display":1847},[1849,2588,2589,2608],{},[1852,2590,2591,2593,2596,2606],{},[1855,2592,2227],{},[1859,2594,2595],{},"≈",[2298,2597,2598,2600],{},[1855,2599,2305],{},[2301,2601,2602,2604],{},[1855,2603,2305],{},[1859,2605,2308],{},[1855,2607,1887],{"mathvariant":1886},[1889,2609,2610],{"encoding":1891},"E\\approx\\frac{P}{P^*}.",[1831,2612,2614,2632],{"className":2613,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2615,2617,2620,2623,2626,2629],{"className":2616},[1901],[1831,2618],{"className":2619,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,2621,2227],{"className":2622,"style":2050},[1910,1911],[1831,2624],{"className":2625,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2627,2595],{"className":2628},[1921],[1831,2630],{"className":2631,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2633,2635,2639,2730],{"className":2634},[1901],[1831,2636],{"className":2637,"style":2638},[1905],"height:2.0463em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1831,2640,2642,2645,2727],{"className":2641},[1910],[1831,2643],{"className":2644},[2355,2356],[1831,2646,2648],{"className":2647},[2298],[1831,2649,2651,2719],{"className":2650},[2363,2364],[1831,2652,2654,2716],{"className":2653},[2368],[1831,2655,2658,2697,2705],{"className":2656,"style":2657},[2372],"height:1.3603em;",[1831,2659,2660,2663],{"style":2376},[1831,2661],{"className":2662,"style":2381},[2380],[1831,2664,2666],{"className":2665},[1910],[1831,2667,2669,2672],{"className":2668},[1910],[1831,2670,2305],{"className":2671,"style":2388},[1910,1911],[1831,2673,2675],{"className":2674},[2418],[1831,2676,2678],{"className":2677},[2363],[1831,2679,2681],{"className":2680},[2368],[1831,2682,2685],{"className":2683,"style":2684},[2372],"height:0.6147em;",[1831,2686,2688,2691],{"style":2687},"top:-2.989em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1831,2689],{"className":2690,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,2692,2694],{"className":2693},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,2695,2308],{"className":2696},[1942,2442],[1831,2698,2699,2702],{"style":2391},[1831,2700],{"className":2701,"style":2381},[2380],[1831,2703],{"className":2704,"style":2399},[2398],[1831,2706,2707,2710],{"style":2402},[1831,2708],{"className":2709,"style":2381},[2380],[1831,2711,2713],{"className":2712},[1910],[1831,2714,2305],{"className":2715,"style":2388},[1910,1911],[1831,2717,2450],{"className":2718},[2449],[1831,2720,2722],{"className":2721},[2368],[1831,2723,2725],{"className":2724,"style":2457},[2372],[1831,2726],{},[1831,2728],{"className":2729},[2463,2356],[1831,2731,1887],{"className":2732},[1910],[1798,2734,2735],{},"相对购买力平价关注通胀差异与汇率变化的长期关系。现实中，运输成本、非贸易品、质量差异、市场分割、贸易壁垒和价格黏性都会造成偏离。因此 PPP 更适合作为长期基准，而不是短期交易规则。",[1793,2737,2739],{"id":2738},"_6-资本流动与风险溢价","6. 资本流动与风险溢价",[1798,2741,2742],{},"资本流入可以支持国内投资，也会让经济更容易受到全球利率和风险偏好变化影响。投资者关注的不只是本国无风险利率，还包括汇率预期、主权风险、流动性和资本管制。",[1798,2744,2745],{},"一个简化的未覆盖利率平价关系为：",[1831,2747,2749],{"className":2748},[1834],[1831,2750,2752,2826],{"className":2751},[1838],[1831,2753,2755],{"className":2754},[1842],[1844,2756,2757],{"xmlns":1846,"display":1847},[1849,2758,2759,2823],{},[1852,2760,2761,2770,2772,2781,2783,2790,2794,2797,2812,2815,2817,2821],{},[2762,2763,2764,2767],"msub",{},[1855,2765,2766],{},"i",[1855,2768,2769],{},"t",[1859,2771,2595],{},[2773,2774,2775,2777,2779],"msubsup",{},[1855,2776,2766],{},[1855,2778,2769],{},[1859,2780,2308],{},[1859,2782,1867],{},[2762,2784,2785,2788],{},[1855,2786,2227],{"mathvariant":2787},"double-struck",[1855,2789,2769],{},[1859,2791,2793],{"stretchy":2792},"false","[",[1855,2795,2796],{"mathvariant":1886},"Δ",[2762,2798,2799,2802],{},[1855,2800,2801],{},"e",[1852,2803,2804,2806,2808],{},[1855,2805,2769],{},[1859,2807,1867],{},[2809,2810,2811],"mn",{},"1",[1859,2813,2814],{"stretchy":2792},"]",[1859,2816,1867],{},[2818,2819,2820],"mtext",{},"风险溢价",[1855,2822,1887],{"mathvariant":1886},[1889,2824,2825],{"encoding":1891},"i_t\\approx i_t^*+\\mathbb{E}_t[\\Delta e_{t+1}]+\\text{风险溢价}.",[1831,2827,2829,2888,2959,3076],{"className":2828,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,2830,2832,2836,2879,2882,2885],{"className":2831},[1901],[1831,2833],{"className":2834,"style":2835},[1905],"height:0.8095em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1831,2837,2839,2842],{"className":2838},[1910],[1831,2840,2766],{"className":2841},[1910,1911],[1831,2843,2845],{"className":2844},[2418],[1831,2846,2848,2870],{"className":2847},[2363,2364],[1831,2849,2851,2867],{"className":2850},[2368],[1831,2852,2855],{"className":2853,"style":2854},[2372],"height:0.2806em;",[1831,2856,2858,2861],{"style":2857},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1831,2859],{"className":2860,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,2862,2864],{"className":2863},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,2865,2769],{"className":2866},[1910,1911,2442],[1831,2868,2450],{"className":2869},[2449],[1831,2871,2873],{"className":2872},[2368],[1831,2874,2877],{"className":2875,"style":2876},[2372],"height:0.15em;",[1831,2878],{},[1831,2880],{"className":2881,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2883,2595],{"className":2884},[1921],[1831,2886],{"className":2887,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,2889,2891,2895,2950,2953,2956],{"className":2890},[1901],[1831,2892],{"className":2893,"style":2894},[1905],"height:0.9857em;vertical-align:-0.247em;",[1831,2896,2898,2901],{"className":2897},[1910],[1831,2899,2766],{"className":2900},[1910,1911],[1831,2902,2904],{"className":2903},[2418],[1831,2905,2907,2941],{"className":2906},[2363,2364],[1831,2908,2910,2938],{"className":2909},[2368],[1831,2911,2914,2926],{"className":2912,"style":2913},[2372],"height:0.7387em;",[1831,2915,2917,2920],{"style":2916},"top:-2.453em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1831,2918],{"className":2919,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,2921,2923],{"className":2922},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,2924,2769],{"className":2925},[1910,1911,2442],[1831,2927,2929,2932],{"style":2928},"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1831,2930],{"className":2931,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,2933,2935],{"className":2934},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,2936,2308],{"className":2937},[1942,2442],[1831,2939,2450],{"className":2940},[2449],[1831,2942,2944],{"className":2943},[2368],[1831,2945,2948],{"className":2946,"style":2947},[2372],"height:0.247em;",[1831,2949],{},[1831,2951],{"className":2952,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2954,1867],{"className":2955},[1942],[1831,2957],{"className":2958,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,2960,2962,2966,3007,3010,3013,3064,3067,3070,3073],{"className":2961},[1901],[1831,2963],{"className":2964,"style":2965},[1905],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1831,2967,2969,2973],{"className":2968},[1910],[1831,2970,2227],{"className":2971},[1910,2972],"mathbb",[1831,2974,2976],{"className":2975},[2418],[1831,2977,2979,2999],{"className":2978},[2363,2364],[1831,2980,2982,2996],{"className":2981},[2368],[1831,2983,2985],{"className":2984,"style":2854},[2372],[1831,2986,2987,2990],{"style":2857},[1831,2988],{"className":2989,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,2991,2993],{"className":2992},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,2994,2769],{"className":2995},[1910,1911,2442],[1831,2997,2450],{"className":2998},[2449],[1831,3000,3002],{"className":3001},[2368],[1831,3003,3005],{"className":3004,"style":2876},[2372],[1831,3006],{},[1831,3008,2793],{"className":3009},[2355],[1831,3011,2796],{"className":3012},[1910],[1831,3014,3016,3019],{"className":3015},[1910],[1831,3017,2801],{"className":3018},[1910,1911],[1831,3020,3022],{"className":3021},[2418],[1831,3023,3025,3055],{"className":3024},[2363,2364],[1831,3026,3028,3052],{"className":3027},[2368],[1831,3029,3032],{"className":3030,"style":3031},[2372],"height:0.3011em;",[1831,3033,3034,3037],{"style":2857},[1831,3035],{"className":3036,"style":2435},[2380],[1831,3038,3040],{"className":3039},[2439,2440,2441,2442],[1831,3041,3043,3046,3049],{"className":3042},[1910,2442],[1831,3044,2769],{"className":3045},[1910,1911,2442],[1831,3047,1867],{"className":3048},[1942,2442],[1831,3050,2811],{"className":3051},[1910,2442],[1831,3053,2450],{"className":3054},[2449],[1831,3056,3058],{"className":3057},[2368],[1831,3059,3062],{"className":3060,"style":3061},[2372],"height:0.2083em;",[1831,3063],{},[1831,3065,2814],{"className":3066},[2463],[1831,3068],{"className":3069,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,3071,1867],{"className":3072},[1942],[1831,3074],{"className":3075,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,3077,3079,3082,3090],{"className":3078},[1901],[1831,3080],{"className":3081,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,3083,3086],{"className":3084},[1910,3085],"text",[1831,3087,2820],{"className":3088},[1910,3089],"cjk_fallback",[1831,3091,1887],{"className":3092},[1910],[1798,3094,3095],{},"研究生需要问：汇率预期如何测量？风险溢价是否随危机状态变化？资本流动是原因还是对未来增长的反应？",[1793,3097,3099],{"id":3098},"_7-不可能三角","7. 不可能三角",[1798,3101,3102],{},"一个经济体通常不能同时完全实现：",[3104,3105,3106,3109,3112],"ol",{},[1808,3107,3108],{},"固定汇率；",[1808,3110,3111],{},"资本自由流动；",[1808,3113,3114],{},"独立货币政策。",[1798,3116,3117],{},"固定汇率和资本自由流动下，国内利率需要跟随外部利率，货币政策自主性受限。若希望保持独立货币政策，通常需要允许汇率浮动或限制资本流动。现实制度往往是不同程度的管理汇率和宏观审慎政策组合，而不是三个角点的纯粹选择。",[1793,3119,3121],{"id":3120},"_8-开放经济政策案例","8. 开放经济政策案例",[1798,3123,3124],{},"面对外部需求下降，一个小型开放经济可能：",[1805,3126,3127,3130,3133,3136,3139],{},[1808,3128,3129],{},"让汇率贬值以改善竞争力；",[1808,3131,3132],{},"降息支持国内需求，但要考虑资本流出；",[1808,3134,3135],{},"通过财政政策稳定就业，但要考虑债务与进口泄漏；",[1808,3137,3138],{},"使用外汇储备或资本措施缓解流动性压力；",[1808,3140,3141],{},"通过结构政策提高出口多样性和生产率。",[1798,3143,3144],{},"每项工具都有分配和金融稳定后果。不要只根据净出口一列判断政策是否成功。",[1793,3146,3147],{"id":3147},"研究生扩展",[1805,3149,3150,3153,3156,3159,3162],{},[1808,3151,3152],{},"开放经济 DSGE 与国际风险分担；",[1808,3154,3155],{},"货币错配、外币债务和突然停止；",[1808,3157,3158],{},"全球价值链、进口中间品和贸易弹性；",[1808,3160,3161],{},"汇率传递、通胀和企业定价货币；",[1808,3163,3164],{},"外汇干预的高频识别和事件研究。",[1793,3166,3167],{"id":3167},"自测题",[3104,3169,3170,3252,3284,3287,3290],{},[1808,3171,3172,3173,3251],{},"为什么 ",[1831,3174,3176,3200],{"className":3175},[1838],[1831,3177,3179],{"className":3178},[1842],[1844,3180,3181],{"xmlns":1846},[1849,3182,3183,3197],{},[1852,3184,3185,3187,3189,3191,3193,3195],{},[1855,3186,2019],{},[1859,3188,2026],{},[1855,3190,1870],{},[1859,3192,1861],{},[1855,3194,1880],{},[1855,3196,1883],{},[1889,3198,3199],{"encoding":1891},"S-I=NX",[1831,3201,3203,3221,3239],{"className":3202,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,3204,3206,3209,3212,3215,3218],{"className":3205},[1901],[1831,3207],{"className":3208,"style":1931},[1905],[1831,3210,2019],{"className":3211,"style":2050},[1910,1911],[1831,3213],{"className":3214,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,3216,2026],{"className":3217},[1942],[1831,3219],{"className":3220,"style":1912},[1916],[1831,3222,3224,3227,3230,3233,3236],{"className":3223},[1901],[1831,3225],{"className":3226,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,3228,1870],{"className":3229,"style":1955},[1910,1911],[1831,3231],{"className":3232,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,3234,1861],{"className":3235},[1921],[1831,3237],{"className":3238,"style":1917},[1916],[1831,3240,3242,3245,3248],{"className":3241},[1901],[1831,3243],{"className":3244,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,3246,1880],{"className":3247,"style":1992},[1910,1911],[1831,3249,1883],{"className":3250,"style":1955},[1910,1911]," 是恒等式而不是因果结论？",[1808,3253,3254,3255,3283],{},"若汇率定义为本币\u002F外币，",[1831,3256,3258,3271],{"className":3257},[1838],[1831,3259,3261],{"className":3260},[1842],[1844,3262,3263],{"xmlns":1846},[1849,3264,3265,3269],{},[1852,3266,3267],{},[1855,3268,2227],{},[1889,3270,2227],{"encoding":1891},[1831,3272,3274],{"className":3273,"ariaHidden":1897},[1896],[1831,3275,3277,3280],{"className":3276},[1901],[1831,3278],{"className":3279,"style":1906},[1905],[1831,3281,2227],{"className":3282,"style":2050},[1910,1911]," 上升表示什么？",[1808,3285,3286],{},"为什么贬值不一定立刻改善贸易余额？",[1808,3288,3289],{},"PPP 偏离的三个现实原因是什么？",[1808,3291,3292],{},"用不可能三角解释固定汇率下货币政策自主性为何受限。",[1793,3294,3295],{"id":3295},"下一章",[1798,3297,3298],{},"最后一章把本课程变成一个研究任务：从宏观事实出发，选择机制、数据和可检验的识别设计。",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3300,"depth":3300,"links":3301},2,[3302,3303,3304,3305,3306,3307,3308,3309,3310,3311,3312,3313],{"id":1795,"depth":3300,"text":1796},{"id":1803,"depth":3300,"text":1803},{"id":1825,"depth":3300,"text":1826},{"id":2208,"depth":3300,"text":2209},{"id":2561,"depth":3300,"text":2562},{"id":2571,"depth":3300,"text":2572},{"id":2738,"depth":3300,"text":2739},{"id":3098,"depth":3300,"text":3099},{"id":3120,"depth":3300,"text":3121},{"id":3147,"depth":3300,"text":3147},{"id":3167,"depth":3300,"text":3167},{"id":3295,"depth":3300,"text":3295},"分析贸易、资本流动、汇率制度和开放经济政策约束。","md",{},true,{"title":1452,"description":3314},"w9q0b_rnAj2Oig3HRk4yy9Plat37B-71EH9rwEHp8ms",[3321,3323],{"title":1448,"path":1449,"stem":1450,"description":3322,"children":-1},"用 Solow 框架和增长分解解释长期生活水平差异。",{"title":1456,"path":1457,"stem":1458,"description":3324,"children":-1},"把宏观事实、理论机制、数据和政策反事实组织成可复现研究。",1785754750694]