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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":1444,"body":1785,"description":3381,"extension":3382,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":3383,"navigation":1782,"path":1445,"published":3384,"seo":3385,"stem":1446,"__hash__":3386},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fmacroeconomics\u002F05-fiscal-policy-and-debt.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3364},"minimark",[1788,1792,1797,1801,1820,1823,1826,1843,1847,1850,1853,1931,1935,1938,1941,1961,1965,2573,2937,2940,2944,3014,3195,3198,3202,3205,3225,3228,3232,3235,3238,3241,3261,3264,3285,3288,3358,3361],[1789,1790,1444],"h1",{"id":1791},"第五章财政政策债务与稳定化",[1793,1794,1796],"h2",{"id":1795},"_1-财政政策的两类任务","1. 财政政策的两类任务",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"财政政策同时承担短期稳定和长期公共职能：",[1802,1803,1804,1808,1811,1814,1817],"ul",{},[1805,1806,1807],"li",{},"在衰退时支持总需求和就业；",[1805,1809,1810],{},"在过热时减轻需求压力；",[1805,1812,1813],{},"提供公共品、社会保险和收入再分配；",[1805,1815,1816],{},"投资基础设施、人力资本和生产率；",[1805,1818,1819],{},"维持债务融资能力和宏观金融稳定。",[1798,1821,1822],{},"同一项政策可能在不同时间尺度上有不同效果。公共投资在短期增加需求，在长期还可能提高供给能力；临时转移支付和永久减税对消费的反馈也可能不同。",[1793,1824,1825],{"id":1825},"学习目标",[1802,1827,1828,1831,1834,1837,1840],{},[1805,1829,1830],{},"区分扩张性、紧缩性和自动稳定财政政策；",[1805,1832,1833],{},"解释支出乘数、税收乘数和预算乘数的差异；",[1805,1835,1836],{},"推导债务—GDP 比率的动态条件；",[1805,1838,1839],{},"讨论利息成本、增长率、初级余额和通胀对债务的影响；",[1805,1841,1842],{},"评价财政政策的时机、组成、分配和可持续性。",[1793,1844,1846],{"id":1845},"_2-自动稳定器与主动政策","2. 自动稳定器与主动政策",[1798,1848,1849],{},"自动稳定器不需要每次衰退都经过新的立法。例如，失业救济在失业上升时增加，累进所得税在收入下降时减少税收，二者会自动缓和可支配收入变化。",[1798,1851,1852],{},"主动财政政策则包括新的公共支出、税率变化或临时转移支付。它可能更有针对性，但也面临识别、立法、执行和退出时滞。",[1854,1855,1856,1872],"table",{},[1857,1858,1859],"thead",{},[1860,1861,1862,1866,1869],"tr",{},[1863,1864,1865],"th",{},"政策",[1863,1867,1868],{},"衰退时的方向",[1863,1870,1871],{},"主要限制",[1873,1874,1875,1887,1898,1909,1920],"tbody",{},[1860,1876,1877,1881,1884],{},[1878,1879,1880],"td",{},"失业保险",[1878,1882,1883],{},"增加转移支付，支持消费",[1878,1885,1886],{},"覆盖率、持续时间和劳动供给激励",[1860,1888,1889,1892,1895],{},[1878,1890,1891],{},"基础设施投资",[1878,1893,1894],{},"增加需求并可能提高长期供给",[1878,1896,1897],{},"项目准备、施工瓶颈和选择偏差",[1860,1899,1900,1903,1906],{},[1878,1901,1902],{},"临时减税",[1878,1904,1905],{},"提高部分家庭可支配收入",[1878,1907,1908],{},"边际消费倾向和预期持续时间",[1860,1910,1911,1914,1917],{},[1878,1912,1913],{},"定向补贴",[1878,1915,1916],{},"支持受冲击群体",[1878,1918,1919],{},"识别目标人群和财政成本",[1860,1921,1922,1925,1928],{},[1878,1923,1924],{},"紧缩支出",[1878,1926,1927],{},"降低总需求、改善财政余额",[1878,1929,1930],{},"可能加深衰退，乘数随周期变化",[1793,1932,1934],{"id":1933},"_3-乘数与挤出","3. 乘数与挤出",[1798,1936,1937],{},"在简单模型里，政府购买增加推动产出，产出增加又提高消费。加入利率后，需求扩张可能推高利率，降低投资，形成挤出效应。开放经济中，进口泄漏也会使国内乘数变小。",[1798,1939,1940],{},"因此，财政乘数不是一个固定常数。它取决于：",[1802,1942,1943,1946,1949,1952,1955,1958],{},[1805,1944,1945],{},"经济是否存在闲置产能；",[1805,1947,1948],{},"货币政策是否配合；",[1805,1950,1951],{},"家庭是否受流动性约束；",[1805,1953,1954],{},"政策是临时还是永久；",[1805,1956,1957],{},"支出投向的进口含量和供给瓶颈；",[1805,1959,1960],{},"金融市场对债务可持续性的反应。",[1793,1962,1964],{"id":1963},"_4-债务动态","4. 债务动态",[1798,1966,1967,1968,2075,2076,2149,2150,2345,2346,2420,2421,2495,2496,2572],{},"令 ",[1969,1970,1973,2002],"span",{"className":1971},[1972],"katex",[1969,1974,1977],{"className":1975},[1976],"katex-mathml",[1978,1979,1981],"math",{"xmlns":1980},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[1982,1983,1984,1997],"semantics",{},[1985,1986,1987],"mrow",{},[1988,1989,1990,1994],"msub",{},[1991,1992,1993],"mi",{},"B",[1991,1995,1996],{},"t",[1998,1999,2001],"annotation",{"encoding":2000},"application\u002Fx-tex","B_t",[1969,2003,2007],{"className":2004,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],"katex-html","true",[1969,2008,2011,2016],{"className":2009},[2010],"base",[1969,2012],{"className":2013,"style":2015},[2014],"strut","height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1969,2017,2020,2025],{"className":2018},[2019],"mord",[1969,2021,1993],{"className":2022,"style":2024},[2019,2023],"mathnormal","margin-right:0.0502em;",[1969,2026,2029],{"className":2027},[2028],"msupsub",[1969,2030,2034,2066],{"className":2031},[2032,2033],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1969,2035,2038,2061],{"className":2036},[2037],"vlist-r",[1969,2039,2043],{"className":2040,"style":2042},[2041],"vlist","height:0.2806em;",[1969,2044,2046,2051],{"style":2045},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0502em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1969,2047],{"className":2048,"style":2050},[2049],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[1969,2052,2058],{"className":2053},[2054,2055,2056,2057],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1969,2059,1996],{"className":2060},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2062,2065],{"className":2063},[2064],"vlist-s","​",[1969,2067,2069],{"className":2068},[2037],[1969,2070,2073],{"className":2071,"style":2072},[2041],"height:0.15em;",[1969,2074],{}," 为名义公共债务，",[1969,2077,2079,2098],{"className":2078},[1972],[1969,2080,2082],{"className":2081},[1976],[1978,2083,2084],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,2085,2086,2095],{},[1985,2087,2088],{},[1988,2089,2090,2093],{},[1991,2091,2092],{},"Y",[1991,2094,1996],{},[1998,2096,2097],{"encoding":2000},"Y_t",[1969,2099,2101],{"className":2100,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2102,2104,2107],{"className":2103},[2010],[1969,2105],{"className":2106,"style":2015},[2014],[1969,2108,2110,2114],{"className":2109},[2019],[1969,2111,2092],{"className":2112,"style":2113},[2019,2023],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1969,2115,2117],{"className":2116},[2028],[1969,2118,2120,2141],{"className":2119},[2032,2033],[1969,2121,2123,2138],{"className":2122},[2037],[1969,2124,2126],{"className":2125,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2127,2129,2132],{"style":2128},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1969,2130],{"className":2131,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2133,2135],{"className":2134},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2136,1996],{"className":2137},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2139,2065],{"className":2140},[2064],[1969,2142,2144],{"className":2143},[2037],[1969,2145,2147],{"className":2146,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2148],{}," 为名义 GDP，",[1969,2151,2153,2192],{"className":2152},[1972],[1969,2154,2156],{"className":2155},[1976],[1978,2157,2158],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,2159,2160,2189],{},[1985,2161,2162,2169,2173,2179,2183],{},[1988,2163,2164,2167],{},[1991,2165,2166],{},"b",[1991,2168,1996],{},[2170,2171,2172],"mo",{},"=",[1988,2174,2175,2177],{},[1991,2176,1993],{},[1991,2178,1996],{},[1991,2180,2182],{"mathvariant":2181},"normal","\u002F",[1988,2184,2185,2187],{},[1991,2186,2092],{},[1991,2188,1996],{},[1998,2190,2191],{"encoding":2000},"b_t=B_t\u002FY_t",[1969,2193,2195,2255],{"className":2194,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2196,2198,2202,2243,2248,2252],{"className":2197},[2010],[1969,2199],{"className":2200,"style":2201},[2014],"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1969,2203,2205,2208],{"className":2204},[2019],[1969,2206,2166],{"className":2207},[2019,2023],[1969,2209,2211],{"className":2210},[2028],[1969,2212,2214,2235],{"className":2213},[2032,2033],[1969,2215,2217,2232],{"className":2216},[2037],[1969,2218,2220],{"className":2219,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2221,2223,2226],{"style":2222},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1969,2224],{"className":2225,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2227,2229],{"className":2228},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2230,1996],{"className":2231},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2233,2065],{"className":2234},[2064],[1969,2236,2238],{"className":2237},[2037],[1969,2239,2241],{"className":2240,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2242],{},[1969,2244],{"className":2245,"style":2247},[2246],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1969,2249,2172],{"className":2250},[2251],"mrel",[1969,2253],{"className":2254,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,2256,2258,2262,2302,2305],{"className":2257},[2010],[1969,2259],{"className":2260,"style":2261},[2014],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1969,2263,2265,2268],{"className":2264},[2019],[1969,2266,1993],{"className":2267,"style":2024},[2019,2023],[1969,2269,2271],{"className":2270},[2028],[1969,2272,2274,2294],{"className":2273},[2032,2033],[1969,2275,2277,2291],{"className":2276},[2037],[1969,2278,2280],{"className":2279,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2281,2282,2285],{"style":2045},[1969,2283],{"className":2284,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2286,2288],{"className":2287},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2289,1996],{"className":2290},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2292,2065],{"className":2293},[2064],[1969,2295,2297],{"className":2296},[2037],[1969,2298,2300],{"className":2299,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2301],{},[1969,2303,2182],{"className":2304},[2019],[1969,2306,2308,2311],{"className":2307},[2019],[1969,2309,2092],{"className":2310,"style":2113},[2019,2023],[1969,2312,2314],{"className":2313},[2028],[1969,2315,2317,2337],{"className":2316},[2032,2033],[1969,2318,2320,2334],{"className":2319},[2037],[1969,2321,2323],{"className":2322,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2324,2325,2328],{"style":2128},[1969,2326],{"className":2327,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2329,2331],{"className":2330},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2332,1996],{"className":2333},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2335,2065],{"className":2336},[2064],[1969,2338,2340],{"className":2339},[2037],[1969,2341,2343],{"className":2342,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2344],{}," 为债务率。令 ",[1969,2347,2349,2368],{"className":2348},[1972],[1969,2350,2352],{"className":2351},[1976],[1978,2353,2354],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,2355,2356,2365],{},[1985,2357,2358],{},[1988,2359,2360,2363],{},[1991,2361,2362],{},"r",[1991,2364,1996],{},[1998,2366,2367],{"encoding":2000},"r_t",[1969,2369,2371],{"className":2370,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2372,2374,2378],{"className":2373},[2010],[1969,2375],{"className":2376,"style":2377},[2014],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1969,2379,2381,2385],{"className":2380},[2019],[1969,2382,2362],{"className":2383,"style":2384},[2019,2023],"margin-right:0.0278em;",[1969,2386,2388],{"className":2387},[2028],[1969,2389,2391,2412],{"className":2390},[2032,2033],[1969,2392,2394,2409],{"className":2393},[2037],[1969,2395,2397],{"className":2396,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2398,2400,2403],{"style":2399},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1969,2401],{"className":2402,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2404,2406],{"className":2405},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2407,1996],{"className":2408},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2410,2065],{"className":2411},[2064],[1969,2413,2415],{"className":2414},[2037],[1969,2416,2418],{"className":2417,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2419],{}," 为实际利率，",[1969,2422,2424,2443],{"className":2423},[1972],[1969,2425,2427],{"className":2426},[1976],[1978,2428,2429],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,2430,2431,2440],{},[1985,2432,2433],{},[1988,2434,2435,2438],{},[1991,2436,2437],{},"g",[1991,2439,1996],{},[1998,2441,2442],{"encoding":2000},"g_t",[1969,2444,2446],{"className":2445,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2447,2449,2453],{"className":2448},[2010],[1969,2450],{"className":2451,"style":2452},[2014],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1969,2454,2456,2460],{"className":2455},[2019],[1969,2457,2437],{"className":2458,"style":2459},[2019,2023],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1969,2461,2463],{"className":2462},[2028],[1969,2464,2466,2487],{"className":2465},[2032,2033],[1969,2467,2469,2484],{"className":2468},[2037],[1969,2470,2472],{"className":2471,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2473,2475,2478],{"style":2474},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1969,2476],{"className":2477,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2479,2481],{"className":2480},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2482,1996],{"className":2483},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2485,2065],{"className":2486},[2064],[1969,2488,2490],{"className":2489},[2037],[1969,2491,2493],{"className":2492,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2494],{}," 为实际增长率，",[1969,2497,2499,2519],{"className":2498},[1972],[1969,2500,2502],{"className":2501},[1976],[1978,2503,2504],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,2505,2506,2516],{},[1985,2507,2508,2510],{},[1991,2509,1798],{},[1988,2511,2512,2514],{},[1991,2513,2166],{},[1991,2515,1996],{},[1998,2517,2518],{"encoding":2000},"pb_t",[1969,2520,2522],{"className":2521,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2523,2525,2529,2532],{"className":2524},[2010],[1969,2526],{"className":2527,"style":2528},[2014],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1969,2530,1798],{"className":2531},[2019,2023],[1969,2533,2535,2538],{"className":2534},[2019],[1969,2536,2166],{"className":2537},[2019,2023],[1969,2539,2541],{"className":2540},[2028],[1969,2542,2544,2564],{"className":2543},[2032,2033],[1969,2545,2547,2561],{"className":2546},[2037],[1969,2548,2550],{"className":2549,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2551,2552,2555],{"style":2222},[1969,2553],{"className":2554,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2556,2558],{"className":2557},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2559,1996],{"className":2560},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2562,2065],{"className":2563},[2064],[1969,2565,2567],{"className":2566},[2037],[1969,2568,2570],{"className":2569,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2571],{}," 为占 GDP 比例的初级盈余（盈余为正）。在小增长率近似下：",[1969,2574,2577],{"className":2575},[2576],"katex-display",[1969,2578,2580,2654],{"className":2579},[1972],[1969,2581,2583],{"className":2582},[1976],[1978,2584,2586],{"xmlns":1980,"display":2585},"block",[1982,2587,2588,2651],{},[1985,2589,2590,2593,2599,2602,2606,2612,2615,2621,2624,2638,2640,2642,2648],{},[1991,2591,2592],{"mathvariant":2181},"Δ",[1988,2594,2595,2597],{},[1991,2596,2166],{},[1991,2598,1996],{},[2170,2600,2601],{},"≈",[2170,2603,2605],{"stretchy":2604},"false","(",[1988,2607,2608,2610],{},[1991,2609,2362],{},[1991,2611,1996],{},[2170,2613,2614],{},"−",[1988,2616,2617,2619],{},[1991,2618,2437],{},[1991,2620,1996],{},[2170,2622,2623],{"stretchy":2604},")",[1988,2625,2626,2628],{},[1991,2627,2166],{},[1985,2629,2630,2632,2634],{},[1991,2631,1996],{},[2170,2633,2614],{},[2635,2636,2637],"mn",{},"1",[2170,2639,2614],{},[1991,2641,1798],{},[1988,2643,2644,2646],{},[1991,2645,2166],{},[1991,2647,1996],{},[1991,2649,2650],{"mathvariant":2181},".",[1998,2652,2653],{"encoding":2000},"\\Delta b_t\\approx(r_t-g_t)b_{t-1}-pb_t.",[1969,2655,2657,2715,2775,2885],{"className":2656,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2658,2660,2663,2666,2706,2709,2712],{"className":2659},[2010],[1969,2661],{"className":2662,"style":2201},[2014],[1969,2664,2592],{"className":2665},[2019],[1969,2667,2669,2672],{"className":2668},[2019],[1969,2670,2166],{"className":2671},[2019,2023],[1969,2673,2675],{"className":2674},[2028],[1969,2676,2678,2698],{"className":2677},[2032,2033],[1969,2679,2681,2695],{"className":2680},[2037],[1969,2682,2684],{"className":2683,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2685,2686,2689],{"style":2222},[1969,2687],{"className":2688,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2690,2692],{"className":2691},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2693,1996],{"className":2694},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2696,2065],{"className":2697},[2064],[1969,2699,2701],{"className":2700},[2037],[1969,2702,2704],{"className":2703,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2705],{},[1969,2707],{"className":2708,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,2710,2601],{"className":2711},[2251],[1969,2713],{"className":2714,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,2716,2718,2721,2725,2765,2768,2772],{"className":2717},[2010],[1969,2719],{"className":2720,"style":2261},[2014],[1969,2722,2605],{"className":2723},[2724],"mopen",[1969,2726,2728,2731],{"className":2727},[2019],[1969,2729,2362],{"className":2730,"style":2384},[2019,2023],[1969,2732,2734],{"className":2733},[2028],[1969,2735,2737,2757],{"className":2736},[2032,2033],[1969,2738,2740,2754],{"className":2739},[2037],[1969,2741,2743],{"className":2742,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2744,2745,2748],{"style":2399},[1969,2746],{"className":2747,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2749,2751],{"className":2750},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2752,1996],{"className":2753},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2755,2065],{"className":2756},[2064],[1969,2758,2760],{"className":2759},[2037],[1969,2761,2763],{"className":2762,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2764],{},[1969,2766],{"className":2767,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,2769,2614],{"className":2770},[2771],"mbin",[1969,2773],{"className":2774,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,2776,2778,2781,2821,2825,2876,2879,2882],{"className":2777},[2010],[1969,2779],{"className":2780,"style":2261},[2014],[1969,2782,2784,2787],{"className":2783},[2019],[1969,2785,2437],{"className":2786,"style":2459},[2019,2023],[1969,2788,2790],{"className":2789},[2028],[1969,2791,2793,2813],{"className":2792},[2032,2033],[1969,2794,2796,2810],{"className":2795},[2037],[1969,2797,2799],{"className":2798,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2800,2801,2804],{"style":2474},[1969,2802],{"className":2803,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2805,2807],{"className":2806},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2808,1996],{"className":2809},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2811,2065],{"className":2812},[2064],[1969,2814,2816],{"className":2815},[2037],[1969,2817,2819],{"className":2818,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2820],{},[1969,2822,2623],{"className":2823},[2824],"mclose",[1969,2826,2828,2831],{"className":2827},[2019],[1969,2829,2166],{"className":2830},[2019,2023],[1969,2832,2834],{"className":2833},[2028],[1969,2835,2837,2867],{"className":2836},[2032,2033],[1969,2838,2840,2864],{"className":2839},[2037],[1969,2841,2844],{"className":2842,"style":2843},[2041],"height:0.3011em;",[1969,2845,2846,2849],{"style":2222},[1969,2847],{"className":2848,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2850,2852],{"className":2851},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2853,2855,2858,2861],{"className":2854},[2019,2057],[1969,2856,1996],{"className":2857},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2859,2614],{"className":2860},[2771,2057],[1969,2862,2637],{"className":2863},[2019,2057],[1969,2865,2065],{"className":2866},[2064],[1969,2868,2870],{"className":2869},[2037],[1969,2871,2874],{"className":2872,"style":2873},[2041],"height:0.2083em;",[1969,2875],{},[1969,2877],{"className":2878,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,2880,2614],{"className":2881},[2771],[1969,2883],{"className":2884,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,2886,2888,2891,2894,2934],{"className":2887},[2010],[1969,2889],{"className":2890,"style":2528},[2014],[1969,2892,1798],{"className":2893},[2019,2023],[1969,2895,2897,2900],{"className":2896},[2019],[1969,2898,2166],{"className":2899},[2019,2023],[1969,2901,2903],{"className":2902},[2028],[1969,2904,2906,2926],{"className":2905},[2032,2033],[1969,2907,2909,2923],{"className":2908},[2037],[1969,2910,2912],{"className":2911,"style":2042},[2041],[1969,2913,2914,2917],{"style":2222},[1969,2915],{"className":2916,"style":2050},[2049],[1969,2918,2920],{"className":2919},[2054,2055,2056,2057],[1969,2921,1996],{"className":2922},[2019,2023,2057],[1969,2924,2065],{"className":2925},[2064],[1969,2927,2929],{"className":2928},[2037],[1969,2930,2932],{"className":2931,"style":2072},[2041],[1969,2933],{},[1969,2935,2650],{"className":2936},[2019],[1798,2938,2939],{},"如果实际利率高于增长率，既有债务会产生正的滚动压力；如果增长率高于实际利率，债务率可能在不大的初级赤字下稳定，但不能把这种差异当作永远不变的免费午餐。",[2941,2942,2943],"h3",{"id":2943},"数值例子",[1798,2945,2946,2947,3013],{},"若初始债务率为 80%，实际利率为 4%，实际增长率为 2%，初级赤字为 GDP 的 1%（所以 ",[1969,2948,2950,2975],{"className":2949},[1972],[1969,2951,2953],{"className":2952},[1976],[1978,2954,2955],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,2956,2957,2972],{},[1985,2958,2959,2961,2963,2965,2967,2969],{},[1991,2960,1798],{},[1991,2962,2166],{},[2170,2964,2172],{},[2170,2966,2614],{},[2635,2968,2637],{},[1991,2970,2971],{"mathvariant":2181},"%",[1998,2973,2974],{"encoding":2000},"pb=-1\\%",[1969,2976,2978,2999],{"className":2977,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,2979,2981,2984,2987,2990,2993,2996],{"className":2980},[2010],[1969,2982],{"className":2983,"style":2528},[2014],[1969,2985,1798],{"className":2986},[2019,2023],[1969,2988,2166],{"className":2989},[2019,2023],[1969,2991],{"className":2992,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,2994,2172],{"className":2995},[2251],[1969,2997],{"className":2998,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3000,3002,3006,3009],{"className":3001},[2010],[1969,3003],{"className":3004,"style":3005},[2014],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1969,3007,2614],{"className":3008},[2019],[1969,3010,3012],{"className":3011},[2019],"1%","），则：",[1969,3015,3017],{"className":3016},[2576],[1969,3018,3020,3072],{"className":3019},[1972],[1969,3021,3023],{"className":3022},[1976],[1978,3024,3025],{"xmlns":1980,"display":2585},[1982,3026,3027,3069],{},[1985,3028,3029,3031,3033,3035,3037,3040,3042,3045,3047,3050,3053,3055,3057,3059,3062,3064,3066],{},[1991,3030,2592],{"mathvariant":2181},[1991,3032,2166],{},[2170,3034,2601],{},[2170,3036,2605],{"stretchy":2604},[2635,3038,3039],{},"0.04",[2170,3041,2614],{},[2635,3043,3044],{},"0.02",[2170,3046,2623],{"stretchy":2604},[2170,3048,3049],{},"×",[2635,3051,3052],{},"0.80",[2170,3054,2614],{},[2170,3056,2605],{"stretchy":2604},[2170,3058,2614],{},[2635,3060,3061],{},"0.01",[2170,3063,2623],{"stretchy":2604},[2170,3065,2172],{},[2635,3067,3068],{},"0.026.",[1998,3070,3071],{"encoding":2000},"\\Delta b\\approx(0.04-0.02)\\times0.80-(-0.01)=0.026.",[1969,3073,3075,3097,3118,3139,3158,3185],{"className":3074,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,3076,3078,3082,3085,3088,3091,3094],{"className":3077},[2010],[1969,3079],{"className":3080,"style":3081},[2014],"height:0.6944em;",[1969,3083,2592],{"className":3084},[2019],[1969,3086,2166],{"className":3087},[2019,2023],[1969,3089],{"className":3090,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3092,2601],{"className":3093},[2251],[1969,3095],{"className":3096,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3098,3100,3103,3106,3109,3112,3115],{"className":3099},[2010],[1969,3101],{"className":3102,"style":2261},[2014],[1969,3104,2605],{"className":3105},[2724],[1969,3107,3039],{"className":3108},[2019],[1969,3110],{"className":3111,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,3113,2614],{"className":3114},[2771],[1969,3116],{"className":3117,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,3119,3121,3124,3127,3130,3133,3136],{"className":3120},[2010],[1969,3122],{"className":3123,"style":2261},[2014],[1969,3125,3044],{"className":3126},[2019],[1969,3128,2623],{"className":3129},[2824],[1969,3131],{"className":3132,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,3134,3049],{"className":3135},[2771],[1969,3137],{"className":3138,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,3140,3142,3146,3149,3152,3155],{"className":3141},[2010],[1969,3143],{"className":3144,"style":3145},[2014],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1969,3147,3052],{"className":3148},[2019],[1969,3150],{"className":3151,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,3153,2614],{"className":3154},[2771],[1969,3156],{"className":3157,"style":2113},[2246],[1969,3159,3161,3164,3167,3170,3173,3176,3179,3182],{"className":3160},[2010],[1969,3162],{"className":3163,"style":2261},[2014],[1969,3165,2605],{"className":3166},[2724],[1969,3168,2614],{"className":3169},[2019],[1969,3171,3061],{"className":3172},[2019],[1969,3174,2623],{"className":3175},[2824],[1969,3177],{"className":3178,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3180,2172],{"className":3181},[2251],[1969,3183],{"className":3184,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3186,3188,3192],{"className":3187},[2010],[1969,3189],{"className":3190,"style":3191},[2014],"height:0.6444em;",[1969,3193,3068],{"className":3194},[2019],[1798,3196,3197],{},"债务率约上升 2.6 个百分点。这里没有考虑估值变化、金融危机和一次性项目；实际预测需要更完整的预算约束。",[1793,3199,3201],{"id":3200},"_5-财政可持续性不是单一阈值","5. 财政可持续性不是单一阈值",[1798,3203,3204],{},"债务可持续性要回答：在合理的利率、增长、初级余额、通胀和政策反应下，政府是否有能力偿付债务并避免爆炸性债务路径。需要结合：",[1802,3206,3207,3210,3213,3216,3219,3222],{},[1805,3208,3209],{},"债务期限和利率重定价速度；",[1805,3211,3212],{},"本币与外币债务；",[1805,3214,3215],{},"投资者基础和金融市场深度；",[1805,3217,3218],{},"潜在增长与税基；",[1805,3220,3221],{},"社会保险承诺和人口结构；",[1805,3223,3224],{},"银行与主权之间的反馈。",[1798,3226,3227],{},"“债务率超过某个百分比就一定危机”是过度简化。阈值取决于制度、增长、利率、货币主权和资产负债表结构。",[1793,3229,3231],{"id":3230},"_6-财政政策的分配维度","6. 财政政策的分配维度",[1798,3233,3234],{},"评价财政政策不能只看总产出。要问：谁获得支出，谁承担税收，政策如何影响代际、地区、收入、年龄和资产持有者？高通胀时期的补贴可能保护消费，却也会扩大需求；削减支出可能改善赤字，却对公共服务使用者产生集中成本。",[1793,3236,3237],{"id":3237},"研究生扩展",[1798,3239,3240],{},"研究生可进一步研究：",[1802,3242,3243,3246,3249,3252,3255,3258],{},[1805,3244,3245],{},"Ricardian equivalence 的假设与现实限制；",[1805,3247,3248],{},"期限结构、主权风险溢价和财政主导；",[1805,3250,3251],{},"代际账户与生命周期财政分析；",[1805,3253,3254],{},"财政乘数的状态依赖与局部投影估计；",[1805,3256,3257],{},"财政规则、独立财政机构和债务上限；",[1805,3259,3260],{},"气候转型、养老金和隐性负债。",[1793,3262,3263],{"id":3263},"政策备忘录模板",[3265,3266,3267,3270,3273,3276,3279,3282],"ol",{},[1805,3268,3269],{},"说明冲击和政策目标；",[1805,3271,3272],{},"区分短期稳定与长期供给；",[1805,3274,3275],{},"计算直接预算成本和可能的乘数反馈；",[1805,3277,3278],{},"展示债务率和融资成本的敏感性；",[1805,3280,3281],{},"讨论分配效果和执行约束；",[1805,3283,3284],{},"给出退出、评估和替代方案。",[1793,3286,3287],{"id":3287},"自测题",[3265,3289,3290,3293,3296,3352,3355],{},[1805,3291,3292],{},"自动稳定器为什么不等同于主动财政刺激？",[1805,3294,3295],{},"什么因素会让财政乘数在衰退时变大？",[1805,3297,3298,3351],{},[1969,3299,3301,3320],{"className":3300},[1972],[1969,3302,3304],{"className":3303},[1976],[1978,3305,3306],{"xmlns":1980},[1982,3307,3308,3317],{},[1985,3309,3310,3312,3315],{},[1991,3311,2362],{},[2170,3313,3314],{},">",[1991,3316,2437],{},[1998,3318,3319],{"encoding":2000},"r>g",[1969,3321,3323,3342],{"className":3322,"ariaHidden":2006},[2005],[1969,3324,3326,3330,3333,3336,3339],{"className":3325},[2010],[1969,3327],{"className":3328,"style":3329},[2014],"height:0.5782em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[1969,3331,2362],{"className":3332,"style":2384},[2019,2023],[1969,3334],{"className":3335,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3337,3314],{"className":3338},[2251],[1969,3340],{"className":3341,"style":2247},[2246],[1969,3343,3345,3348],{"className":3344},[2010],[1969,3346],{"className":3347,"style":2452},[2014],[1969,3349,2437],{"className":3350,"style":2459},[2019,2023]," 时债务率动态面临什么压力？",[1805,3353,3354],{},"为什么债务率本身不能单独判断危机风险？",[1805,3356,3357],{},"写一个财政政策同时影响总需求和长期供给的例子。",[1793,3359,3360],{"id":3360},"下一章",[1798,3362,3363],{},"下一章从跨期视角分析资本积累、技术进步、生产率和长期生活水平。",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3365,"depth":3365,"links":3366},2,[3367,3368,3369,3370,3371,3375,3376,3377,3378,3379,3380],{"id":1795,"depth":3365,"text":1796},{"id":1825,"depth":3365,"text":1825},{"id":1845,"depth":3365,"text":1846},{"id":1933,"depth":3365,"text":1934},{"id":1963,"depth":3365,"text":1964,"children":3372},[3373],{"id":2943,"depth":3374,"text":2943},3,{"id":3200,"depth":3365,"text":3201},{"id":3230,"depth":3365,"text":3231},{"id":3237,"depth":3365,"text":3237},{"id":3263,"depth":3365,"text":3263},{"id":3287,"depth":3365,"text":3287},{"id":3360,"depth":3365,"text":3360},"分析政府支出、税收、自动稳定器、公共债务和财政空间。","md",{},true,{"title":1444,"description":3381},"mTYYJRj9dI0kArVhLcr0U8ypK88zfWRLqrtkGU3C7jA",[3388,3390],{"title":1440,"path":1441,"stem":1442,"description":3389,"children":-1},"用总需求—总供给和菲利普斯曲线分析宏观冲击、预期与短期权衡。",{"title":1448,"path":1449,"stem":1450,"description":3391,"children":-1},"用 Solow 框架和增长分解解释长期生活水平差异。",1785754750516]