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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":1436,"body":1785,"description":3509,"extension":3510,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":3511,"navigation":1782,"path":1437,"published":3512,"seo":3513,"stem":1438,"__hash__":3514},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fmacroeconomics\u002F03-money-and-monetary-policy.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3494},"minimark",[1788,1792,1796,1800,1803,1822,1826,1829,1832,1836,1839,1883,1886,1894,1897,1901,2006,2009,2029,2032,2036,2039,2042,2656,3073,3077,3081,3084,3088,3091,3377,3380,3384,3438,3441,3444,3447,3464,3467,3470,3488,3491],[1789,1790,1436],"h1",{"id":1791},"第三章货币银行与货币政策",[1793,1794,1795],"h2",{"id":1795},"本章问题",[1797,1798,1799],"p",{},"货币不仅是纸币和硬币。它是被广泛接受的支付媒介、计价单位和价值储藏工具，也是银行资产负债表与中央银行政策框架中的关键对象。本章要回答：银行如何创造存款，央行如何影响利率，金融条件又如何传导到消费、投资和就业？",[1793,1801,1802],{"id":1802},"学习目标",[1804,1805,1806,1810,1813,1816,1819],"ul",{},[1807,1808,1809],"li",{},"区分货币的功能、货币层次和银行准备金；",[1807,1811,1812],{},"从资产负债表解释贷款与存款的同时变化；",[1807,1814,1815],{},"理解中央银行资产负债表、政策利率和公开市场操作；",[1807,1817,1818],{},"解释利率、信用、资产价格和汇率的传导；",[1807,1820,1821],{},"说明货币政策受到零利率下限、金融摩擦、预期和供给冲击的限制。",[1793,1823,1825],{"id":1824},"_1-货币的三种功能","1. 货币的三种功能",[1797,1827,1828],{},"货币作为交换媒介降低了物物交换的双重需求巧合；作为计价单位使债务、工资和价格可以比较；作为价值储藏工具使购买力可以跨期转移。某种资产是否“像货币”，取决于流动性、接受程度、价值稳定性和制度安排。",[1797,1830,1831],{},"不要把货币与财富混为一谈。银行存款是持有者的资产，同时是银行的负债；一项资产能否成为货币，除了价值，还取决于它能否在交易中被迅速、低成本地使用。",[1793,1833,1835],{"id":1834},"_2-银行资产负债表","2. 银行资产负债表",[1797,1837,1838],{},"一个简化银行资产负债表为：",[1840,1841,1842,1855],"table",{},[1843,1844,1845],"thead",{},[1846,1847,1848,1852],"tr",{},[1849,1850,1851],"th",{},"资产",[1849,1853,1854],{},"负债与资本",[1856,1857,1858,1867,1875],"tbody",{},[1846,1859,1860,1864],{},[1861,1862,1863],"td",{},"现金和准备金",[1861,1865,1866],{},"客户存款",[1846,1868,1869,1872],{},[1861,1870,1871],{},"贷款",[1861,1873,1874],{},"银行借款",[1846,1876,1877,1880],{},[1861,1878,1879],{},"债券",[1861,1881,1882],{},"股东资本",[1797,1884,1885],{},"当银行批准一笔 £100 的新贷款时，典型的复式记账同时增加：",[1804,1887,1888,1891],{},[1807,1889,1890],{},"资产端的贷款 £100；",[1807,1892,1893],{},"负债端的借款人存款 £100。",[1797,1895,1896],{},"贷款偿还、坏账、资本约束和流动性需求会改变这一过程。现代银行体系不是简单的“先收集存款再机械放贷”，但它仍然必须受到资本、流动性、监管、风险评估和央行支付系统的约束。",[1793,1898,1900],{"id":1899},"_3-准备金与货币乘数作为基准而非定律","3. 准备金与货币乘数：作为基准而非定律",[1797,1902,1903,1904,1957,1958,2005],{},"传统教材常用准备金率 ",[1905,1906,1909,1934],"span",{"className":1907},[1908],"katex",[1905,1910,1913],{"className":1911},[1912],"katex-mathml",[1914,1915,1917],"math",{"xmlns":1916},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[1918,1919,1920,1929],"semantics",{},[1921,1922,1923,1927],"mrow",{},[1924,1925,1926],"mi",{},"r",[1924,1928,1926],{},[1930,1931,1933],"annotation",{"encoding":1932},"application\u002Fx-tex","rr",[1905,1935,1939],{"className":1936,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],"katex-html","true",[1905,1940,1943,1948,1954],{"className":1941},[1942],"base",[1905,1944],{"className":1945,"style":1947},[1946],"strut","height:0.4306em;",[1905,1949,1926],{"className":1950,"style":1953},[1951,1952],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.0278em;",[1905,1955,1926],{"className":1956,"style":1953},[1951,1952]," 推出存款乘数 ",[1905,1959,1961,1985],{"className":1960},[1908],[1905,1962,1964],{"className":1963},[1912],[1914,1965,1966],{"xmlns":1916},[1918,1967,1968,1982],{},[1921,1969,1970,1974,1978,1980],{},[1971,1972,1973],"mn",{},"1",[1924,1975,1977],{"mathvariant":1976},"normal","\u002F",[1924,1979,1926],{},[1924,1981,1926],{},[1930,1983,1984],{"encoding":1932},"1\u002Frr",[1905,1986,1988],{"className":1987,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,1989,1991,1995,1999,2002],{"className":1990},[1942],[1905,1992],{"className":1993,"style":1994},[1946],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1905,1996,1998],{"className":1997},[1951],"1\u002F",[1905,2000,1926],{"className":2001,"style":1953},[1951,1952],[1905,2003,1926],{"className":2004,"style":1953},[1951,1952],"。如果银行体系每一轮都把超额资金贷出，公众不持有现金，且贷款全部回到银行体系，那么初始准备金增加可能支持更大的存款总量。",[1797,2007,2008],{},"现实中，货币扩张取决于：",[1804,2010,2011,2014,2017,2020,2023,2026],{},[1807,2012,2013],{},"银行是否愿意贷款；",[1807,2015,2016],{},"借款人是否有合格项目和偿付能力；",[1807,2018,2019],{},"家庭是否愿意持有存款而非现金；",[1807,2021,2022],{},"银行资本和流动性约束；",[1807,2024,2025],{},"央行支付系统和监管制度；",[1807,2027,2028],{},"金融危机中的风险偏好与资产负债表修复。",[1797,2030,2031],{},"因此，研究生不应把“货币乘数”当成一个稳定的政策参数。它更适合作为理解资产负债表扩张的入门模型。",[1793,2033,2035],{"id":2034},"_4-中央银行如何实施政策","4. 中央银行如何实施政策",[1797,2037,2038],{},"中央银行通常通过政策利率、公开市场操作、准备金工具、资产购买、前瞻指引和流动性工具影响金融条件。现代框架下，央行通过支付系统和准备金市场控制短期利率，再影响其他利率和资产价格。",[1797,2040,2041],{},"一个简化的货币政策规则可以写为：",[1905,2043,2046],{"className":2044},[2045],"katex-display",[1905,2047,2049,2157],{"className":2048},[1908],[1905,2050,2052],{"className":2051},[1912],[1914,2053,2055],{"xmlns":1916,"display":2054},"block",[1918,2056,2057,2154],{},[1921,2058,2059,2068,2072,2080,2083,2090,2092,2099,2103,2109,2112,2118,2121,2123,2130,2132,2138,2140,2149,2151],{},[2060,2061,2062,2065],"msub",{},[1924,2063,2064],{},"i",[1924,2066,2067],{},"t",[2069,2070,2071],"mo",{},"=",[2073,2074,2075,2077],"msup",{},[1924,2076,1926],{},[2069,2078,2079],{},"∗",[2069,2081,2082],{},"+",[2060,2084,2085,2088],{},[1924,2086,2087],{},"π",[1924,2089,2067],{},[2069,2091,2082],{},[2060,2093,2094,2097],{},[1924,2095,2096],{},"ϕ",[1924,2098,2087],{},[2069,2100,2102],{"stretchy":2101},"false","(",[2060,2104,2105,2107],{},[1924,2106,2087],{},[1924,2108,2067],{},[2069,2110,2111],{},"−",[2073,2113,2114,2116],{},[1924,2115,2087],{},[2069,2117,2079],{},[2069,2119,2120],{"stretchy":2101},")",[2069,2122,2082],{},[2060,2124,2125,2127],{},[1924,2126,2096],{},[1924,2128,2129],{},"y",[2069,2131,2102],{"stretchy":2101},[2060,2133,2134,2136],{},[1924,2135,2129],{},[1924,2137,2067],{},[2069,2139,2111],{},[2141,2142,2143,2145,2147],"msubsup",{},[1924,2144,2129],{},[1924,2146,2067],{},[2069,2148,2079],{},[2069,2150,2120],{"stretchy":2101},[2069,2152,2153],{"separator":1938},",",[1930,2155,2156],{"encoding":1932},"i_t=r^*+\\pi_t+\\phi_\\pi(\\pi_t-\\pi^*)+\\phi_y(y_t-y_t^*),",[1905,2158,2160,2235,2284,2342,2442,2490,2590],{"className":2159,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,2161,2163,2167,2223,2228,2232],{"className":2162},[1942],[1905,2164],{"className":2165,"style":2166},[1946],"height:0.8095em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1905,2168,2170,2173],{"className":2169},[1951],[1905,2171,2064],{"className":2172},[1951,1952],[1905,2174,2177],{"className":2175},[2176],"msupsub",[1905,2178,2182,2214],{"className":2179},[2180,2181],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1905,2183,2186,2209],{"className":2184},[2185],"vlist-r",[1905,2187,2191],{"className":2188,"style":2190},[2189],"vlist","height:0.2806em;",[1905,2192,2194,2199],{"style":2193},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1905,2195],{"className":2196,"style":2198},[2197],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[1905,2200,2206],{"className":2201},[2202,2203,2204,2205],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1905,2207,2067],{"className":2208},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2210,2213],{"className":2211},[2212],"vlist-s","​",[1905,2215,2217],{"className":2216},[2185],[1905,2218,2221],{"className":2219,"style":2220},[2189],"height:0.15em;",[1905,2222],{},[1905,2224],{"className":2225,"style":2227},[2226],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1905,2229,2071],{"className":2230},[2231],"mrel",[1905,2233],{"className":2234,"style":2227},[2226],[1905,2236,2238,2242,2274,2278,2281],{"className":2237},[1942],[1905,2239],{"className":2240,"style":2241},[1946],"height:0.822em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1905,2243,2245,2248],{"className":2244},[1951],[1905,2246,1926],{"className":2247,"style":1953},[1951,1952],[1905,2249,2251],{"className":2250},[2176],[1905,2252,2254],{"className":2253},[2180],[1905,2255,2257],{"className":2256},[2185],[1905,2258,2261],{"className":2259,"style":2260},[2189],"height:0.7387em;",[1905,2262,2264,2267],{"style":2263},"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1905,2265],{"className":2266,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2268,2270],{"className":2269},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2271,2079],{"className":2272},[2273,2205],"mbin",[1905,2275],{"className":2276,"style":2277},[2226],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1905,2279,2082],{"className":2280},[2273],[1905,2282],{"className":2283,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2285,2287,2291,2333,2336,2339],{"className":2286},[1942],[1905,2288],{"className":2289,"style":2290},[1946],"height:0.7333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1905,2292,2294,2298],{"className":2293},[1951],[1905,2295,2087],{"className":2296,"style":2297},[1951,1952],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1905,2299,2301],{"className":2300},[2176],[1905,2302,2304,2325],{"className":2303},[2180,2181],[1905,2305,2307,2322],{"className":2306},[2185],[1905,2308,2310],{"className":2309,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,2311,2313,2316],{"style":2312},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1905,2314],{"className":2315,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2317,2319],{"className":2318},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2320,2067],{"className":2321},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2323,2213],{"className":2324},[2212],[1905,2326,2328],{"className":2327},[2185],[1905,2329,2331],{"className":2330,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,2332],{},[1905,2334],{"className":2335,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2337,2082],{"className":2338},[2273],[1905,2340],{"className":2341,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2343,2345,2348,2389,2393,2433,2436,2439],{"className":2344},[1942],[1905,2346],{"className":2347,"style":1994},[1946],[1905,2349,2351,2354],{"className":2350},[1951],[1905,2352,2096],{"className":2353},[1951,1952],[1905,2355,2357],{"className":2356},[2176],[1905,2358,2360,2381],{"className":2359},[2180,2181],[1905,2361,2363,2378],{"className":2362},[2185],[1905,2364,2367],{"className":2365,"style":2366},[2189],"height:0.1514em;",[1905,2368,2369,2372],{"style":2193},[1905,2370],{"className":2371,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2373,2375],{"className":2374},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2376,2087],{"className":2377,"style":2297},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2379,2213],{"className":2380},[2212],[1905,2382,2384],{"className":2383},[2185],[1905,2385,2387],{"className":2386,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,2388],{},[1905,2390,2102],{"className":2391},[2392],"mopen",[1905,2394,2396,2399],{"className":2395},[1951],[1905,2397,2087],{"className":2398,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2400,2402],{"className":2401},[2176],[1905,2403,2405,2425],{"className":2404},[2180,2181],[1905,2406,2408,2422],{"className":2407},[2185],[1905,2409,2411],{"className":2410,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,2412,2413,2416],{"style":2312},[1905,2414],{"className":2415,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2417,2419],{"className":2418},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2420,2067],{"className":2421},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2423,2213],{"className":2424},[2212],[1905,2426,2428],{"className":2427},[2185],[1905,2429,2431],{"className":2430,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,2432],{},[1905,2434],{"className":2435,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2437,2111],{"className":2438},[2273],[1905,2440],{"className":2441,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2443,2445,2448,2477,2481,2484,2487],{"className":2444},[1942],[1905,2446],{"className":2447,"style":1994},[1946],[1905,2449,2451,2454],{"className":2450},[1951],[1905,2452,2087],{"className":2453,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2455,2457],{"className":2456},[2176],[1905,2458,2460],{"className":2459},[2180],[1905,2461,2463],{"className":2462},[2185],[1905,2464,2466],{"className":2465,"style":2260},[2189],[1905,2467,2468,2471],{"style":2263},[1905,2469],{"className":2470,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2472,2474],{"className":2473},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2475,2079],{"className":2476},[2273,2205],[1905,2478,2120],{"className":2479},[2480],"mclose",[1905,2482],{"className":2483,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2485,2082],{"className":2486},[2273],[1905,2488],{"className":2489,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2491,2493,2497,2538,2541,2581,2584,2587],{"className":2492},[1942],[1905,2494],{"className":2495,"style":2496},[1946],"height:1.0361em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1905,2498,2500,2503],{"className":2499},[1951],[1905,2501,2096],{"className":2502},[1951,1952],[1905,2504,2506],{"className":2505},[2176],[1905,2507,2509,2529],{"className":2508},[2180,2181],[1905,2510,2512,2526],{"className":2511},[2185],[1905,2513,2515],{"className":2514,"style":2366},[2189],[1905,2516,2517,2520],{"style":2193},[1905,2518],{"className":2519,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2521,2523],{"className":2522},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2524,2129],{"className":2525,"style":2297},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2527,2213],{"className":2528},[2212],[1905,2530,2532],{"className":2531},[2185],[1905,2533,2536],{"className":2534,"style":2535},[2189],"height:0.2861em;",[1905,2537],{},[1905,2539,2102],{"className":2540},[2392],[1905,2542,2544,2547],{"className":2543},[1951],[1905,2545,2129],{"className":2546,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2548,2550],{"className":2549},[2176],[1905,2551,2553,2573],{"className":2552},[2180,2181],[1905,2554,2556,2570],{"className":2555},[2185],[1905,2557,2559],{"className":2558,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,2560,2561,2564],{"style":2312},[1905,2562],{"className":2563,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2565,2567],{"className":2566},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2568,2067],{"className":2569},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2571,2213],{"className":2572},[2212],[1905,2574,2576],{"className":2575},[2185],[1905,2577,2579],{"className":2578,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,2580],{},[1905,2582],{"className":2583,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2585,2111],{"className":2586},[2273],[1905,2588],{"className":2589,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,2591,2593,2596,2649,2652],{"className":2592},[1942],[1905,2594],{"className":2595,"style":1994},[1946],[1905,2597,2599,2602],{"className":2598},[1951],[1905,2600,2129],{"className":2601,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2603,2605],{"className":2604},[2176],[1905,2606,2608,2640],{"className":2607},[2180,2181],[1905,2609,2611,2637],{"className":2610},[2185],[1905,2612,2614,2626],{"className":2613,"style":2260},[2189],[1905,2615,2617,2620],{"style":2616},"top:-2.453em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1905,2618],{"className":2619,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2621,2623],{"className":2622},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2624,2067],{"className":2625},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2627,2628,2631],{"style":2263},[1905,2629],{"className":2630,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2632,2634],{"className":2633},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2635,2079],{"className":2636},[2273,2205],[1905,2638,2213],{"className":2639},[2212],[1905,2641,2643],{"className":2642},[2185],[1905,2644,2647],{"className":2645,"style":2646},[2189],"height:0.247em;",[1905,2648],{},[1905,2650,2120],{"className":2651},[2480],[1905,2653,2153],{"className":2654},[2655],"mpunct",[1797,2657,2658,2659,2729,2730,2791,2792,2863,2864,2923,2924,3072],{},"其中 ",[1905,2660,2662,2680],{"className":2661},[1908],[1905,2663,2665],{"className":2664},[1912],[1914,2666,2667],{"xmlns":1916},[1918,2668,2669,2677],{},[1921,2670,2671],{},[2060,2672,2673,2675],{},[1924,2674,2064],{},[1924,2676,2067],{},[1930,2678,2679],{"encoding":1932},"i_t",[1905,2681,2683],{"className":2682,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,2684,2686,2689],{"className":2685},[1942],[1905,2687],{"className":2688,"style":2166},[1946],[1905,2690,2692,2695],{"className":2691},[1951],[1905,2693,2064],{"className":2694},[1951,1952],[1905,2696,2698],{"className":2697},[2176],[1905,2699,2701,2721],{"className":2700},[2180,2181],[1905,2702,2704,2718],{"className":2703},[2185],[1905,2705,2707],{"className":2706,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,2708,2709,2712],{"style":2193},[1905,2710],{"className":2711,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2713,2715],{"className":2714},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2716,2067],{"className":2717},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2719,2213],{"className":2720},[2212],[1905,2722,2724],{"className":2723},[2185],[1905,2725,2727],{"className":2726,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,2728],{}," 是名义利率，",[1905,2731,2733,2751],{"className":2732},[1908],[1905,2734,2736],{"className":2735},[1912],[1914,2737,2738],{"xmlns":1916},[1918,2739,2740,2748],{},[1921,2741,2742],{},[2073,2743,2744,2746],{},[1924,2745,1926],{},[2069,2747,2079],{},[1930,2749,2750],{"encoding":1932},"r^*",[1905,2752,2754],{"className":2753,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,2755,2757,2761],{"className":2756},[1942],[1905,2758],{"className":2759,"style":2760},[1946],"height:0.6887em;",[1905,2762,2764,2767],{"className":2763},[1951],[1905,2765,1926],{"className":2766,"style":1953},[1951,1952],[1905,2768,2770],{"className":2769},[2176],[1905,2771,2773],{"className":2772},[2180],[1905,2774,2776],{"className":2775},[2185],[1905,2777,2779],{"className":2778,"style":2760},[2189],[1905,2780,2782,2785],{"style":2781},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1905,2783],{"className":2784,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2786,2788],{"className":2787},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2789,2079],{"className":2790},[2273,2205]," 是中性实际利率，",[1905,2793,2795,2813],{"className":2794},[1908],[1905,2796,2798],{"className":2797},[1912],[1914,2799,2800],{"xmlns":1916},[1918,2801,2802,2810],{},[1921,2803,2804],{},[2060,2805,2806,2808],{},[1924,2807,2087],{},[1924,2809,2067],{},[1930,2811,2812],{"encoding":1932},"\\pi_t",[1905,2814,2816],{"className":2815,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,2817,2819,2823],{"className":2818},[1942],[1905,2820],{"className":2821,"style":2822},[1946],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1905,2824,2826,2829],{"className":2825},[1951],[1905,2827,2087],{"className":2828,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2830,2832],{"className":2831},[2176],[1905,2833,2835,2855],{"className":2834},[2180,2181],[1905,2836,2838,2852],{"className":2837},[2185],[1905,2839,2841],{"className":2840,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,2842,2843,2846],{"style":2312},[1905,2844],{"className":2845,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2847,2849],{"className":2848},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2850,2067],{"className":2851},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2853,2213],{"className":2854},[2212],[1905,2856,2858],{"className":2857},[2185],[1905,2859,2861],{"className":2860,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,2862],{}," 是通胀，",[1905,2865,2867,2885],{"className":2866},[1908],[1905,2868,2870],{"className":2869},[1912],[1914,2871,2872],{"xmlns":1916},[1918,2873,2874,2882],{},[1921,2875,2876],{},[2073,2877,2878,2880],{},[1924,2879,2087],{},[2069,2881,2079],{},[1930,2883,2884],{"encoding":1932},"\\pi^*",[1905,2886,2888],{"className":2887,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,2889,2891,2894],{"className":2890},[1942],[1905,2892],{"className":2893,"style":2760},[1946],[1905,2895,2897,2900],{"className":2896},[1951],[1905,2898,2087],{"className":2899,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2901,2903],{"className":2902},[2176],[1905,2904,2906],{"className":2905},[2180],[1905,2907,2909],{"className":2908},[2185],[1905,2910,2912],{"className":2911,"style":2760},[2189],[1905,2913,2914,2917],{"style":2781},[1905,2915],{"className":2916,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2918,2920],{"className":2919},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2921,2079],{"className":2922},[2273,2205]," 是目标通胀，",[1905,2925,2927,2955],{"className":2926},[1908],[1905,2928,2930],{"className":2929},[1912],[1914,2931,2932],{"xmlns":1916},[1918,2933,2934,2952],{},[1921,2935,2936,2942,2944],{},[2060,2937,2938,2940],{},[1924,2939,2129],{},[1924,2941,2067],{},[2069,2943,2111],{},[2141,2945,2946,2948,2950],{},[1924,2947,2129],{},[1924,2949,2067],{},[2069,2951,2079],{},[1930,2953,2954],{"encoding":1932},"y_t-y_t^*",[1905,2956,2958,3014],{"className":2957,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,2959,2961,2965,3005,3008,3011],{"className":2960},[1942],[1905,2962],{"className":2963,"style":2964},[1946],"height:0.7778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1905,2966,2968,2971],{"className":2967},[1951],[1905,2969,2129],{"className":2970,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,2972,2974],{"className":2973},[2176],[1905,2975,2977,2997],{"className":2976},[2180,2181],[1905,2978,2980,2994],{"className":2979},[2185],[1905,2981,2983],{"className":2982,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,2984,2985,2988],{"style":2312},[1905,2986],{"className":2987,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,2989,2991],{"className":2990},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,2992,2067],{"className":2993},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,2995,2213],{"className":2996},[2212],[1905,2998,3000],{"className":2999},[2185],[1905,3001,3003],{"className":3002,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,3004],{},[1905,3006],{"className":3007,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,3009,2111],{"className":3010},[2273],[1905,3012],{"className":3013,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,3015,3017,3021],{"className":3016},[1942],[1905,3018],{"className":3019,"style":3020},[1946],"height:0.9357em;vertical-align:-0.247em;",[1905,3022,3024,3027],{"className":3023},[1951],[1905,3025,2129],{"className":3026,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,3028,3030],{"className":3029},[2176],[1905,3031,3033,3064],{"className":3032},[2180,2181],[1905,3034,3036,3061],{"className":3035},[2185],[1905,3037,3039,3050],{"className":3038,"style":2760},[2189],[1905,3040,3041,3044],{"style":2616},[1905,3042],{"className":3043,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,3045,3047],{"className":3046},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,3048,2067],{"className":3049},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,3051,3052,3055],{"style":2781},[1905,3053],{"className":3054,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,3056,3058],{"className":3057},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,3059,2079],{"className":3060},[2273,2205],[1905,3062,2213],{"className":3063},[2212],[1905,3065,3067],{"className":3066},[2185],[1905,3068,3070],{"className":3069,"style":2646},[2189],[1905,3071],{}," 是产出缺口。这个规则不是央行的机械承诺，而是把“对通胀和产出缺口反应”形式化。",[1793,3074,3076],{"id":3075},"_5-利率传导链","5. 利率传导链",[3078,3079],"mermaid-diagram",{"code64":3080,"locale":7},"Zmxvd2NoYXJ0IExSCiAgUG9saWN5WyLmlL\u002FnrZbliKnnjociXSAtLT4gTWFya2V0WyLluILlnLrliKnnjofkuI7ph5Hono3mnaHku7YiXQogIE1hcmtldCAtLT4gQ3JlZGl0WyLotLfmrL7jgIHlgLrliLjkuI7kv6HnlKjliKnlt64iXQogIE1hcmtldCAtLT4gQXNzZXRbIui1hOS6p+S7t+agvOS4juaxh+eOhyJdCiAgQ3JlZGl0IC0tPiBTcGVuZFsi5raI6LS55LiO5oqV6LWEIl0KICBBc3NldCAtLT4gU3BlbmQKICBTcGVuZCAtLT4gT3V0cHV0WyLkuqflh7rkuI7lsLHkuJoiXQogIE91dHB1dCAtLT4gSW5mbGF0aW9uWyLpgJrog4DkuI7pooTmnJ8iXQogIEluZmxhdGlvbiAtLT4gUG9saWN5",[1797,3082,3083],{},"传导不是瞬时的，也不是对所有家庭和企业相同。浮动利率借款者、资产负债表脆弱的企业和依赖外币融资的经济体可能对利率变化更敏感。",[1793,3085,3087],{"id":3086},"_6-实际利率与预期","6. 实际利率与预期",[1797,3089,3090],{},"近似 Fisher 关系为：",[1905,3092,3094],{"className":3093},[2045],[1905,3095,3097,3155],{"className":3096},[1908],[1905,3098,3100],{"className":3099},[1912],[1914,3101,3102],{"xmlns":1916,"display":2054},[1918,3103,3104,3152],{},[1921,3105,3106,3112,3115,3121,3123,3131,3134,3146,3149],{},[2060,3107,3108,3110],{},[1924,3109,1926],{},[1924,3111,2067],{},[2069,3113,3114],{},"≈",[2060,3116,3117,3119],{},[1924,3118,2064],{},[1924,3120,2067],{},[2069,3122,2111],{},[2060,3124,3125,3129],{},[1924,3126,3128],{"mathvariant":3127},"double-struck","E",[1924,3130,2067],{},[2069,3132,3133],{"stretchy":2101},"[",[2060,3135,3136,3138],{},[1924,3137,2087],{},[1921,3139,3140,3142,3144],{},[1924,3141,2067],{},[2069,3143,2082],{},[1971,3145,1973],{},[2069,3147,3148],{"stretchy":2101},"]",[1924,3150,3151],{"mathvariant":1976},".",[1930,3153,3154],{"encoding":1932},"r_t\\approx i_t-\\mathbb{E}_t[\\pi_{t+1}].",[1905,3156,3158,3215,3270],{"className":3157,"ariaHidden":1938},[1937],[1905,3159,3161,3165,3206,3209,3212],{"className":3160},[1942],[1905,3162],{"className":3163,"style":3164},[1946],"height:0.6331em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1905,3166,3168,3171],{"className":3167},[1951],[1905,3169,1926],{"className":3170,"style":1953},[1951,1952],[1905,3172,3174],{"className":3173},[2176],[1905,3175,3177,3198],{"className":3176},[2180,2181],[1905,3178,3180,3195],{"className":3179},[2185],[1905,3181,3183],{"className":3182,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,3184,3186,3189],{"style":3185},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1905,3187],{"className":3188,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,3190,3192],{"className":3191},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,3193,2067],{"className":3194},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,3196,2213],{"className":3197},[2212],[1905,3199,3201],{"className":3200},[2185],[1905,3202,3204],{"className":3203,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,3205],{},[1905,3207],{"className":3208,"style":2227},[2226],[1905,3210,3114],{"className":3211},[2231],[1905,3213],{"className":3214,"style":2227},[2226],[1905,3216,3218,3221,3261,3264,3267],{"className":3217},[1942],[1905,3219],{"className":3220,"style":2166},[1946],[1905,3222,3224,3227],{"className":3223},[1951],[1905,3225,2064],{"className":3226},[1951,1952],[1905,3228,3230],{"className":3229},[2176],[1905,3231,3233,3253],{"className":3232},[2180,2181],[1905,3234,3236,3250],{"className":3235},[2185],[1905,3237,3239],{"className":3238,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,3240,3241,3244],{"style":2193},[1905,3242],{"className":3243,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,3245,3247],{"className":3246},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,3248,2067],{"className":3249},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,3251,2213],{"className":3252},[2212],[1905,3254,3256],{"className":3255},[2185],[1905,3257,3259],{"className":3258,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,3260],{},[1905,3262],{"className":3263,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,3265,2111],{"className":3266},[2273],[1905,3268],{"className":3269,"style":2277},[2226],[1905,3271,3273,3276,3317,3320,3371,3374],{"className":3272},[1942],[1905,3274],{"className":3275,"style":1994},[1946],[1905,3277,3279,3283],{"className":3278},[1951],[1905,3280,3128],{"className":3281},[1951,3282],"mathbb",[1905,3284,3286],{"className":3285},[2176],[1905,3287,3289,3309],{"className":3288},[2180,2181],[1905,3290,3292,3306],{"className":3291},[2185],[1905,3293,3295],{"className":3294,"style":2190},[2189],[1905,3296,3297,3300],{"style":2193},[1905,3298],{"className":3299,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,3301,3303],{"className":3302},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,3304,2067],{"className":3305},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,3307,2213],{"className":3308},[2212],[1905,3310,3312],{"className":3311},[2185],[1905,3313,3315],{"className":3314,"style":2220},[2189],[1905,3316],{},[1905,3318,3133],{"className":3319},[2392],[1905,3321,3323,3326],{"className":3322},[1951],[1905,3324,2087],{"className":3325,"style":2297},[1951,1952],[1905,3327,3329],{"className":3328},[2176],[1905,3330,3332,3362],{"className":3331},[2180,2181],[1905,3333,3335,3359],{"className":3334},[2185],[1905,3336,3339],{"className":3337,"style":3338},[2189],"height:0.3011em;",[1905,3340,3341,3344],{"style":2312},[1905,3342],{"className":3343,"style":2198},[2197],[1905,3345,3347],{"className":3346},[2202,2203,2204,2205],[1905,3348,3350,3353,3356],{"className":3349},[1951,2205],[1905,3351,2067],{"className":3352},[1951,1952,2205],[1905,3354,2082],{"className":3355},[2273,2205],[1905,3357,1973],{"className":3358},[1951,2205],[1905,3360,2213],{"className":3361},[2212],[1905,3363,3365],{"className":3364},[2185],[1905,3366,3369],{"className":3367,"style":3368},[2189],"height:0.2083em;",[1905,3370],{},[1905,3372,3148],{"className":3373},[2480],[1905,3375,3151],{"className":3376},[1951],[1797,3378,3379],{},"家庭和企业的消费、投资决策通常更关心实际融资成本，而不是名义政策利率本身。如果通胀预期上升速度快于名义利率，实际利率可能下降，金融条件未必收紧。",[1793,3381,3383],{"id":3382},"_7-货币政策的限制","7. 货币政策的限制",[1840,3385,3386,3396],{},[1843,3387,3388],{},[1846,3389,3390,3393],{},[1849,3391,3392],{},"限制",[1849,3394,3395],{},"机制",[1856,3397,3398,3406,3414,3422,3430],{},[1846,3399,3400,3403],{},[1861,3401,3402],{},"零利率或有效下限",[1861,3404,3405],{},"传统降息空间有限，政策转向资产购买、指引或财政协同。",[1846,3407,3408,3411],{},[1861,3409,3410],{},"供给冲击",[1861,3412,3413],{},"加息可以压制需求，却不能直接修复能源、芯片或劳动力供给。",[1846,3415,3416,3419],{},[1861,3417,3418],{},"金融传导阻塞",[1861,3420,3421],{},"银行不良资产、信用利差或风险厌恶会削弱政策利率传导。",[1846,3423,3424,3427],{},[1861,3425,3426],{},"预期失锚",[1861,3428,3429],{},"家庭和企业不相信目标，通胀和工资设定会自我强化。",[1846,3431,3432,3435],{},[1861,3433,3434],{},"汇率与资本流动",[1861,3436,3437],{},"开放经济中，利差和风险溢价会改变汇率与资本流。",[1797,3439,3440],{},"高质量政策分析要写出工具、传导、时滞和副作用，而不是只说“加息抑制通胀”。",[1793,3442,3443],{"id":3443},"研究生扩展",[1797,3445,3446],{},"研究生可以进一步学习：",[1804,3448,3449,3452,3455,3458,3461],{},[1807,3450,3451],{},"央行损失函数与最优政策；",[1807,3453,3454],{},"新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线和通胀预期；",[1807,3456,3457],{},"资产负债表渠道、金融加速器与银行资本；",[1807,3459,3460],{},"货币政策冲击的 VAR、局部投影和高频识别；",[1807,3462,3463],{},"非线性、异质性主体和财政—货币政策互动。",[1797,3465,3466],{},"这些扩展都要求先说明“政策冲击”如何定义。观察到利率变化并不自动意味着观察到了外生货币政策冲击，因为利率也会响应经济信息。",[1793,3468,3469],{"id":3469},"自测题",[3471,3472,3473,3476,3479,3482,3485],"ol",{},[1807,3474,3475],{},"新贷款为什么可以同时增加银行资产和客户存款？",[1807,3477,3478],{},"为什么准备金率乘数不能直接预测现实经济中的贷款增长？",[1807,3480,3481],{},"名义利率上升但实际利率下降是否可能？需要什么通胀预期变化？",[1807,3483,3484],{},"写出一个金融渠道削弱货币政策传导的例子。",[1807,3486,3487],{},"为什么供给冲击下央行面临稳定通胀与稳定产出的权衡？",[1793,3489,3490],{"id":3490},"下一章",[1797,3492,3493],{},"下一章把货币政策放进 AD–AS 和菲利普斯曲线框架，进一步分析需求冲击、供给冲击、通胀和失业之间的短期关系。",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3495,"depth":3495,"links":3496},2,[3497,3498,3499,3500,3501,3502,3503,3504,3505,3506,3507,3508],{"id":1795,"depth":3495,"text":1795},{"id":1802,"depth":3495,"text":1802},{"id":1824,"depth":3495,"text":1825},{"id":1834,"depth":3495,"text":1835},{"id":1899,"depth":3495,"text":1900},{"id":2034,"depth":3495,"text":2035},{"id":3075,"depth":3495,"text":3076},{"id":3086,"depth":3495,"text":3087},{"id":3382,"depth":3495,"text":3383},{"id":3443,"depth":3495,"text":3443},{"id":3469,"depth":3495,"text":3469},{"id":3490,"depth":3495,"text":3490},"从银行资产负债表、货币创造和利率传导理解中央银行政策。","md",{},true,{"title":1436,"description":3509},"OE6xixm1S4CENpJZxXMkeUjBWHslSlF4i2X41Qm0r9A",[3516,3518],{"title":1432,"path":1433,"stem":1434,"description":3517,"children":-1},"从消费函数、投资支出和乘数机制理解短期产出决定。",{"title":1440,"path":1441,"stem":1442,"description":3519,"children":-1},"用总需求—总供给和菲利普斯曲线分析宏观冲击、预期与短期权衡。",1785754750342]