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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",{"path":508},{"id":1784,"title":1394,"body":1785,"description":3848,"extension":3849,"features":3850,"hero":3850,"layout":3850,"locale":3850,"meta":3851,"navigation":3850,"path":1395,"published":3852,"seo":3853,"stem":1396,"__hash__":3854},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3827},"minimark",[1788,1792,1797,1801,1813,1816,1819,1822,1844,1847,1851,1860,1867,1870,2115,2118,2288,2291,2296,2299,2320,2323,2327,2337,2351,2354,2357,2360,2454,2457,2461,2464,2467,2484,2487,2490,2494,2497,2517,2520,2612,2615,2768,2771,2925,2928,2932,2936,2939,3131,3134,3138,3141,3152,3155,3254,3257,3404,3407,3523,3526,3673,3676,3680,3683,3703,3706,3710,3713,3720,3723,3755,3758,3815,3818,3821],[1789,1790,1394],"h1",{"id":1791},"第6章通货膨胀与失业",[1793,1794,1796],"h2",{"id":1795},"_60-为什么-gdp-之后要看通胀和失业","6.0 为什么 GDP 之后要看通胀和失业",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"GDP 告诉我们一个经济体一年生产了多少东西，但它不能直接回答两个很现实的问题：东西是不是越来越贵？工作是不是越来越难找？",[1798,1802,1803,1804,1808,1809,1812],{},"如果 GDP 在增长，但物价涨得更快，普通人的生活压力仍然可能变大。如果 GDP 数据看起来还可以，但很多人找不到工作，社会感受也不会好。因此，宏观经济学通常会把 ",[1805,1806,1807],"strong",{},"通货膨胀"," 和 ",[1805,1810,1811],{},"失业"," 放在 GDP 之后一起学习。",[1798,1814,1815],{},"可以这样理解：GDP 像发动机排量，通胀像仪表盘上的温度，失业像有多少人没有被这台发动机带动起来。只看发动机大小，不看温度和就业，判断就会偏。",[1793,1817,1818],{"id":1818},"学习目标",[1798,1820,1821],{},"学完本章后，你应该能够：",[1823,1824,1825,1829,1832,1835,1838,1841],"ol",{},[1826,1827,1828],"li",{},"用 CPI 计算通胀率。",[1826,1830,1831],{},"区分名义收入和实际购买力。",[1826,1833,1834],{},"解释为什么意外通胀比预期内通胀更麻烦。",[1826,1836,1837],{},"计算失业率和劳动参与率。",[1826,1839,1840],{},"区分摩擦性、结构性和周期性失业。",[1826,1842,1843],{},"说明通胀与失业的短期权衡为什么不能长期固定存在。",[1845,1846],"hr",{},[1793,1848,1850],{"id":1849},"_61-价格水平与通货膨胀","6.1 价格水平与通货膨胀",[1798,1852,1853,1856,1857,1859],{},[1805,1854,1855],{},"价格水平","指的是整个经济中商品和服务价格的总体水平。",[1805,1858,1807],{},"指价格水平持续上升的速度。",[1798,1861,1862,1863,1866],{},"最常见的指标是 ",[1805,1864,1865],{},"消费者价格指数（CPI）","。它会选取一篮子普通消费者经常购买的商品和服务，例如食品、住房、交通、医疗、通信等，然后观察这一篮子东西的总价格如何变化。",[1798,1868,1869],{},"通胀率的计算公式是：",[1871,1872,1875],"span",{"className":1873},[1874],"katex-display",[1871,1876,1879,1938],{"className":1877},[1878],"katex",[1871,1880,1883],{"className":1881},[1882],"katex-mathml",[1884,1885,1888],"math",{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1889,1890,1891,1933],"semantics",{},[1892,1893,1894,1898,1902,1918,1921,1925,1930],"mrow",{},[1895,1896,1897],"mtext",{},"通胀率",[1899,1900,1901],"mo",{},"=",[1903,1904,1905,1916],"mfrac",{},[1892,1906,1907,1910,1913],{},[1895,1908,1909],{},"本期 CPI",[1899,1911,1912],{},"−",[1895,1914,1915],{},"上期 CPI",[1895,1917,1915],{},[1899,1919,1920],{},"×",[1922,1923,1924],"mn",{},"100",[1926,1927,1929],"mi",{"mathvariant":1928},"normal","%",[1926,1931,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},".",[1934,1935,1937],"annotation",{"encoding":1936},"application\u002Fx-tex","\\text{通胀率} =\n\\frac{\\text{本期 CPI} - \\text{上期 CPI}}{\\text{上期 CPI}} \\times 100\\%.",[1871,1939,1943,1973,2104],{"className":1940,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],"katex-html","true",[1871,1944,1947,1952,1961,1966,1970],{"className":1945},[1946],"base",[1871,1948],{"className":1949,"style":1951},[1950],"strut","height:0.6833em;",[1871,1953,1957],{"className":1954},[1955,1956],"mord","text",[1871,1958,1897],{"className":1959},[1955,1960],"cjk_fallback",[1871,1962],{"className":1963,"style":1965},[1964],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1871,1967,1901],{"className":1968},[1969],"mrel",[1871,1971],{"className":1972,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,1974,1976,1980,2095,2098,2101],{"className":1975},[1946],[1871,1977],{"className":1978,"style":1979},[1950],"height:2.0463em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1871,1981,1983,1988,2091],{"className":1982},[1955],[1871,1984],{"className":1985},[1986,1987],"mopen","nulldelimiter",[1871,1989,1991],{"className":1990},[1903],[1871,1992,1996,2082],{"className":1993},[1994,1995],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1871,1997,2000,2077],{"className":1998},[1999],"vlist-r",[1871,2001,2005,2027,2038],{"className":2002,"style":2004},[2003],"vlist","height:1.3603em;",[1871,2006,2008,2013],{"style":2007},"top:-2.314em;",[1871,2009],{"className":2010,"style":2012},[2011],"pstrut","height:3em;",[1871,2014,2016],{"className":2015},[1955],[1871,2017,2019,2023],{"className":2018},[1955,1956],[1871,2020,2022],{"className":2021},[1955,1960],"上期",[1871,2024,2026],{"className":2025},[1955]," CPI",[1871,2028,2030,2033],{"style":2029},"top:-3.23em;",[1871,2031],{"className":2032,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2034],{"className":2035,"style":2037},[2036],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[1871,2039,2041,2044],{"style":2040},"top:-3.677em;",[1871,2042],{"className":2043,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2045,2047,2057,2061,2065,2068],{"className":2046},[1955],[1871,2048,2050,2054],{"className":2049},[1955,1956],[1871,2051,2053],{"className":2052},[1955,1960],"本期",[1871,2055,2026],{"className":2056},[1955],[1871,2058],{"className":2059,"style":2060},[1964],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1871,2062,1912],{"className":2063},[2064],"mbin",[1871,2066],{"className":2067,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2069,2071,2074],{"className":2070},[1955,1956],[1871,2072,2022],{"className":2073},[1955,1960],[1871,2075,2026],{"className":2076},[1955],[1871,2078,2081],{"className":2079},[2080],"vlist-s","​",[1871,2083,2085],{"className":2084},[1999],[1871,2086,2089],{"className":2087,"style":2088},[2003],"height:0.686em;",[1871,2090],{},[1871,2092],{"className":2093},[2094,1987],"mclose",[1871,2096],{"className":2097,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2099,1920],{"className":2100},[2064],[1871,2102],{"className":2103,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2105,2107,2111],{"className":2106},[1946],[1871,2108],{"className":2109,"style":2110},[1950],"height:0.8056em;vertical-align:-0.0556em;",[1871,2112,2114],{"className":2113},[1955],"100%.",[1798,2116,2117],{},"比如 CPI 从 120 上升到 126，通胀率就是：",[1871,2119,2121],{"className":2120},[1874],[1871,2122,2124,2165],{"className":2123},[1878],[1871,2125,2127],{"className":2126},[1882],[1884,2128,2129],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,2130,2131,2162],{},[1892,2132,2133,2147,2149,2151,2153,2155,2158,2160],{},[1903,2134,2135,2145],{},[1892,2136,2137,2140,2142],{},[1922,2138,2139],{},"126",[1899,2141,1912],{},[1922,2143,2144],{},"120",[1922,2146,2144],{},[1899,2148,1920],{},[1922,2150,1924],{},[1926,2152,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1899,2154,1901],{},[1922,2156,2157],{},"5",[1926,2159,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1926,2161,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,2163,2164],{"encoding":1936},"\\frac{126 - 120}{120} \\times 100\\% = 5\\%.",[1871,2166,2168,2259,2278],{"className":2167,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,2169,2171,2175,2250,2253,2256],{"className":2170},[1946],[1871,2172],{"className":2173,"style":2174},[1950],"height:2.0074em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1871,2176,2178,2181,2247],{"className":2177},[1955],[1871,2179],{"className":2180},[1986,1987],[1871,2182,2184],{"className":2183},[1903],[1871,2185,2187,2239],{"className":2186},[1994,1995],[1871,2188,2190,2236],{"className":2189},[1999],[1871,2191,2194,2205,2213],{"className":2192,"style":2193},[2003],"height:1.3214em;",[1871,2195,2196,2199],{"style":2007},[1871,2197],{"className":2198,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2200,2202],{"className":2201},[1955],[1871,2203,2144],{"className":2204},[1955],[1871,2206,2207,2210],{"style":2029},[1871,2208],{"className":2209,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2211],{"className":2212,"style":2037},[2036],[1871,2214,2215,2218],{"style":2040},[1871,2216],{"className":2217,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2219,2221,2224,2227,2230,2233],{"className":2220},[1955],[1871,2222,2139],{"className":2223},[1955],[1871,2225],{"className":2226,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2228,1912],{"className":2229},[2064],[1871,2231],{"className":2232,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2234,2144],{"className":2235},[1955],[1871,2237,2081],{"className":2238},[2080],[1871,2240,2242],{"className":2241},[1999],[1871,2243,2245],{"className":2244,"style":2088},[2003],[1871,2246],{},[1871,2248],{"className":2249},[2094,1987],[1871,2251],{"className":2252,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2254,1920],{"className":2255},[2064],[1871,2257],{"className":2258,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2260,2262,2265,2269,2272,2275],{"className":2261},[1946],[1871,2263],{"className":2264,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,2266,2268],{"className":2267},[1955],"100%",[1871,2270],{"className":2271,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2273,1901],{"className":2274},[1969],[1871,2276],{"className":2277,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2279,2281,2284],{"className":2280},[1946],[1871,2282],{"className":2283,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,2285,2287],{"className":2286},[1955],"5%.",[1798,2289,2290],{},"这表示同样一篮子商品和服务，比上一期贵了 5%。",[2292,2293,2295],"h3",{"id":2294},"通胀反通胀和通缩","通胀、反通胀和通缩",[1798,2297,2298],{},"这三个词很容易混：",[2300,2301,2302,2308,2314],"ul",{},[1826,2303,2304,2307],{},[1805,2305,2306],{},"通胀","：价格水平在上升；",[1826,2309,2310,2313],{},[1805,2311,2312],{},"反通胀","：通胀率下降，但仍然是正的，也就是价格还在涨，只是涨慢了；",[1826,2315,2316,2319],{},[1805,2317,2318],{},"通缩","：价格水平下降。",[1798,2321,2322],{},"例如通胀率从 8% 降到 4%，这叫反通胀，不叫通缩。因为价格仍然在上涨。",[1793,2324,2326],{"id":2325},"_62-名义变量与实际变量","6.2 名义变量与实际变量",[1798,2328,2329,2330,1808,2333,2336],{},"一旦存在通胀，我们就必须区分 ",[1805,2331,2332],{},"名义值",[1805,2334,2335],{},"实际值","。",[2300,2338,2339,2345],{},[1826,2340,2341,2344],{},[1805,2342,2343],{},"名义收入","：直接用当期货币金额表示的收入；",[1826,2346,2347,2350],{},[1805,2348,2349],{},"实际收入","：扣除物价变化之后的购买力。",[1798,2352,2353],{},"如果你的工资涨了 3%，但物价涨了 6%，你拿到的钱变多了，可是能买到的东西反而少了。经济学关心实际值，是因为实际值更接近生活感受。",[1798,2355,2356],{},"这个区分不仅适用于工资，也适用于利率、GDP、储蓄收益和投资回报。",[1798,2358,2359],{},"一个常用的粗略判断是：",[1871,2361,2363],{"className":2362},[1874],[1871,2364,2366,2393],{"className":2365},[1878],[1871,2367,2369],{"className":2368},[1882],[1884,2370,2371],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,2372,2373,2390],{},[1892,2374,2375,2378,2381,2384,2386,2388],{},[1895,2376,2377],{},"实际增长率",[1899,2379,2380],{},"≈",[1895,2382,2383],{},"名义增长率",[1899,2385,1912],{},[1895,2387,1897],{},[1926,2389,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,2391,2392],{"encoding":1936},"\\text{实际增长率} \\approx \\text{名义增长率} - \\text{通胀率}.",[1871,2394,2396,2417,2439],{"className":2395,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,2397,2399,2402,2408,2411,2414],{"className":2398},[1946],[1871,2400],{"className":2401,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,2403,2405],{"className":2404},[1955,1956],[1871,2406,2377],{"className":2407},[1955,1960],[1871,2409],{"className":2410,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2412,2380],{"className":2413},[1969],[1871,2415],{"className":2416,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2418,2420,2424,2430,2433,2436],{"className":2419},[1946],[1871,2421],{"className":2422,"style":2423},[1950],"height:0.7667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1871,2425,2427],{"className":2426},[1955,1956],[1871,2428,2383],{"className":2429},[1955,1960],[1871,2431],{"className":2432,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2434,1912],{"className":2435},[2064],[1871,2437],{"className":2438,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2440,2442,2445,2451],{"className":2441},[1946],[1871,2443],{"className":2444,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,2446,2448],{"className":2447},[1955,1956],[1871,2449,1897],{"className":2450},[1955,1960],[1871,2452,1932],{"className":2453},[1955],[1798,2455,2456],{},"如果工资上涨 5%，物价上涨 7%，实际工资大约下降 2%。",[1793,2458,2460],{"id":2459},"_63-通胀的成本","6.3 通胀的成本",[1798,2462,2463],{},"温和且稳定的通胀不一定可怕。真正麻烦的是通胀过高、波动太大，或者超出了人们预期。",[1798,2465,2466],{},"通胀可能带来的问题包括：",[2300,2468,2469,2472,2475,2478,2481],{},[1826,2470,2471],{},"货币购买力下降，家庭预算变得不稳定；",[1826,2473,2474],{},"企业需要频繁调价，长期合同更难签；",[1826,2476,2477],{},"储蓄者和借款人之间会发生意外的利益转移；",[1826,2479,2480],{},"价格信号变得模糊，企业和消费者更难判断真实供求；",[1826,2482,2483],{},"如果通胀失控，人们可能不愿意持有本国货币。",[1798,2485,2486],{},"所以政策讨论中经常强调“稳定预期”。如果大家都预期通胀在 2% 左右，合同和工资可以提前调整；如果通胀突然变成 10%，很多安排就会被打乱。",[1798,2488,2489],{},"举个例子：员工签合同时以为今年通胀 2%，结果实际通胀 9%，那他的固定工资购买力就被明显侵蚀。固定利率借款人反而可能受益，因为未来还的钱变得“不值钱”了。意外通胀的麻烦就在于它会重新分配利益，而且很多人事先没有准备。",[1793,2491,2493],{"id":2492},"_64-失业率如何计算","6.4 失业率如何计算",[1798,2495,2496],{},"成年人在劳动力市场中大致可以分为三类：",[2300,2498,2499,2505,2511],{},[1826,2500,2501,2504],{},[1805,2502,2503],{},"就业者","：有工作的人；",[1826,2506,2507,2510],{},[1805,2508,2509],{},"失业者","：没有工作，但正在积极找工作的人；",[1826,2512,2513,2516],{},[1805,2514,2515],{},"非劳动力人口","：没有工作，也没有积极找工作的人。",[1798,2518,2519],{},"劳动力等于：",[1871,2521,2523],{"className":2522},[1874],[1871,2524,2526,2552],{"className":2525},[1878],[1871,2527,2529],{"className":2528},[1882],[1884,2530,2531],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,2532,2533,2549],{},[1892,2534,2535,2538,2540,2542,2545,2547],{},[1895,2536,2537],{},"劳动力",[1899,2539,1901],{},[1895,2541,2503],{},[1899,2543,2544],{},"+",[1895,2546,2509],{},[1926,2548,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,2550,2551],{"encoding":1936},"\\text{劳动力} = \\text{就业者} + \\text{失业者}.",[1871,2553,2555,2576,2597],{"className":2554,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,2556,2558,2561,2567,2570,2573],{"className":2557},[1946],[1871,2559],{"className":2560,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,2562,2564],{"className":2563},[1955,1956],[1871,2565,2537],{"className":2566},[1955,1960],[1871,2568],{"className":2569,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2571,1901],{"className":2572},[1969],[1871,2574],{"className":2575,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2577,2579,2582,2588,2591,2594],{"className":2578},[1946],[1871,2580],{"className":2581,"style":2423},[1950],[1871,2583,2585],{"className":2584},[1955,1956],[1871,2586,2503],{"className":2587},[1955,1960],[1871,2589],{"className":2590,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2592,2544],{"className":2593},[2064],[1871,2595],{"className":2596,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2598,2600,2603,2609],{"className":2599},[1946],[1871,2601],{"className":2602,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,2604,2606],{"className":2605},[1955,1956],[1871,2607,2509],{"className":2608},[1955,1960],[1871,2610,1932],{"className":2611},[1955],[1798,2613,2614],{},"失业率等于：",[1871,2616,2618],{"className":2617},[1874],[1871,2619,2621,2652],{"className":2620},[1878],[1871,2622,2624],{"className":2623},[1882],[1884,2625,2626],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,2627,2628,2649],{},[1892,2629,2630,2633,2635,2641,2643,2645,2647],{},[1895,2631,2632],{},"失业率",[1899,2634,1901],{},[1903,2636,2637,2639],{},[1895,2638,2509],{},[1895,2640,2537],{},[1899,2642,1920],{},[1922,2644,1924],{},[1926,2646,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1926,2648,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,2650,2651],{"encoding":1936},"\\text{失业率} =\n\\frac{\\text{失业者}}{\\text{劳动力}} \\times 100\\%.",[1871,2653,2655,2676,2759],{"className":2654,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,2656,2658,2661,2667,2670,2673],{"className":2657},[1946],[1871,2659],{"className":2660,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,2662,2664],{"className":2663},[1955,1956],[1871,2665,2632],{"className":2666},[1955,1960],[1871,2668],{"className":2669,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2671,1901],{"className":2672},[1969],[1871,2674],{"className":2675,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2677,2679,2682,2750,2753,2756],{"className":2678},[1946],[1871,2680],{"className":2681,"style":1979},[1950],[1871,2683,2685,2688,2747],{"className":2684},[1955],[1871,2686],{"className":2687},[1986,1987],[1871,2689,2691],{"className":2690},[1903],[1871,2692,2694,2739],{"className":2693},[1994,1995],[1871,2695,2697,2736],{"className":2696},[1999],[1871,2698,2700,2714,2722],{"className":2699,"style":2004},[2003],[1871,2701,2702,2705],{"style":2007},[1871,2703],{"className":2704,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2706,2708],{"className":2707},[1955],[1871,2709,2711],{"className":2710},[1955,1956],[1871,2712,2537],{"className":2713},[1955,1960],[1871,2715,2716,2719],{"style":2029},[1871,2717],{"className":2718,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2720],{"className":2721,"style":2037},[2036],[1871,2723,2724,2727],{"style":2040},[1871,2725],{"className":2726,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2728,2730],{"className":2729},[1955],[1871,2731,2733],{"className":2732},[1955,1956],[1871,2734,2509],{"className":2735},[1955,1960],[1871,2737,2081],{"className":2738},[2080],[1871,2740,2742],{"className":2741},[1999],[1871,2743,2745],{"className":2744,"style":2088},[2003],[1871,2746],{},[1871,2748],{"className":2749},[2094,1987],[1871,2751],{"className":2752,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2754,1920],{"className":2755},[2064],[1871,2757],{"className":2758,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2760,2762,2765],{"className":2761},[1946],[1871,2763],{"className":2764,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,2766,2114],{"className":2767},[1955],[1798,2769,2770],{},"劳动参与率等于：",[1871,2772,2774],{"className":2773},[1874],[1871,2775,2777,2809],{"className":2776},[1878],[1871,2778,2780],{"className":2779},[1882],[1884,2781,2782],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,2783,2784,2806],{},[1892,2785,2786,2789,2791,2798,2800,2802,2804],{},[1895,2787,2788],{},"劳动参与率",[1899,2790,1901],{},[1903,2792,2793,2795],{},[1895,2794,2537],{},[1895,2796,2797],{},"成年人口",[1899,2799,1920],{},[1922,2801,1924],{},[1926,2803,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1926,2805,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,2807,2808],{"encoding":1936},"\\text{劳动参与率} =\n\\frac{\\text{劳动力}}{\\text{成年人口}} \\times 100\\%.",[1871,2810,2812,2833,2916],{"className":2811,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,2813,2815,2818,2824,2827,2830],{"className":2814},[1946],[1871,2816],{"className":2817,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,2819,2821],{"className":2820},[1955,1956],[1871,2822,2788],{"className":2823},[1955,1960],[1871,2825],{"className":2826,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2828,1901],{"className":2829},[1969],[1871,2831],{"className":2832,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,2834,2836,2839,2907,2910,2913],{"className":2835},[1946],[1871,2837],{"className":2838,"style":1979},[1950],[1871,2840,2842,2845,2904],{"className":2841},[1955],[1871,2843],{"className":2844},[1986,1987],[1871,2846,2848],{"className":2847},[1903],[1871,2849,2851,2896],{"className":2850},[1994,1995],[1871,2852,2854,2893],{"className":2853},[1999],[1871,2855,2857,2871,2879],{"className":2856,"style":2004},[2003],[1871,2858,2859,2862],{"style":2007},[1871,2860],{"className":2861,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2863,2865],{"className":2864},[1955],[1871,2866,2868],{"className":2867},[1955,1956],[1871,2869,2797],{"className":2870},[1955,1960],[1871,2872,2873,2876],{"style":2029},[1871,2874],{"className":2875,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2877],{"className":2878,"style":2037},[2036],[1871,2880,2881,2884],{"style":2040},[1871,2882],{"className":2883,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,2885,2887],{"className":2886},[1955],[1871,2888,2890],{"className":2889},[1955,1956],[1871,2891,2537],{"className":2892},[1955,1960],[1871,2894,2081],{"className":2895},[2080],[1871,2897,2899],{"className":2898},[1999],[1871,2900,2902],{"className":2901,"style":2088},[2003],[1871,2903],{},[1871,2905],{"className":2906},[2094,1987],[1871,2908],{"className":2909,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2911,1920],{"className":2912},[2064],[1871,2914],{"className":2915,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,2917,2919,2922],{"className":2918},[1946],[1871,2920],{"className":2921,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,2923,2114],{"className":2924},[1955],[1798,2926,2927],{},"这里有一个容易忽略的点：如果一个人找工作找累了，暂时放弃寻找，他就不再被统计为失业者，而是退出劳动力。因此，只看失业率有时不够，还要看劳动参与率、就业人数和岗位空缺。",[1793,2929,2931],{"id":2930},"计算例题cpi-与失业率","计算例题：CPI 与失业率",[2292,2933,2935],{"id":2934},"a-cpi","A. CPI",[1798,2937,2938],{},"假设某学生生活篮子去年花费 1000 元，今年花费 1080 元。",[1871,2940,2942],{"className":2941},[1874],[1871,2943,2945,2990],{"className":2944},[1878],[1871,2946,2948],{"className":2947},[1882],[1884,2949,2950],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,2951,2952,2987],{},[1892,2953,2954,2956,2958,2972,2974,2976,2978,2980,2983,2985],{},[1895,2955,1897],{},[1899,2957,1901],{},[1903,2959,2960,2970],{},[1892,2961,2962,2965,2967],{},[1922,2963,2964],{},"1080",[1899,2966,1912],{},[1922,2968,2969],{},"1000",[1922,2971,2969],{},[1899,2973,1920],{},[1922,2975,1924],{},[1926,2977,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1899,2979,1901],{},[1922,2981,2982],{},"8",[1926,2984,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1926,2986,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,2988,2989],{"encoding":1936},"\\text{通胀率} = \\frac{1080 - 1000}{1000} \\times 100\\% = 8\\%.",[1871,2991,2993,3014,3103,3121],{"className":2992,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,2994,2996,2999,3005,3008,3011],{"className":2995},[1946],[1871,2997],{"className":2998,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,3000,3002],{"className":3001},[1955,1956],[1871,3003,1897],{"className":3004},[1955,1960],[1871,3006],{"className":3007,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3009,1901],{"className":3010},[1969],[1871,3012],{"className":3013,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3015,3017,3020,3094,3097,3100],{"className":3016},[1946],[1871,3018],{"className":3019,"style":2174},[1950],[1871,3021,3023,3026,3091],{"className":3022},[1955],[1871,3024],{"className":3025},[1986,1987],[1871,3027,3029],{"className":3028},[1903],[1871,3030,3032,3083],{"className":3031},[1994,1995],[1871,3033,3035,3080],{"className":3034},[1999],[1871,3036,3038,3049,3057],{"className":3037,"style":2193},[2003],[1871,3039,3040,3043],{"style":2007},[1871,3041],{"className":3042,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3044,3046],{"className":3045},[1955],[1871,3047,2969],{"className":3048},[1955],[1871,3050,3051,3054],{"style":2029},[1871,3052],{"className":3053,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3055],{"className":3056,"style":2037},[2036],[1871,3058,3059,3062],{"style":2040},[1871,3060],{"className":3061,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3063,3065,3068,3071,3074,3077],{"className":3064},[1955],[1871,3066,2964],{"className":3067},[1955],[1871,3069],{"className":3070,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3072,1912],{"className":3073},[2064],[1871,3075],{"className":3076,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3078,2969],{"className":3079},[1955],[1871,3081,2081],{"className":3082},[2080],[1871,3084,3086],{"className":3085},[1999],[1871,3087,3089],{"className":3088,"style":2088},[2003],[1871,3090],{},[1871,3092],{"className":3093},[2094,1987],[1871,3095],{"className":3096,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3098,1920],{"className":3099},[2064],[1871,3101],{"className":3102,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3104,3106,3109,3112,3115,3118],{"className":3105},[1946],[1871,3107],{"className":3108,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,3110,2268],{"className":3111},[1955],[1871,3113],{"className":3114,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3116,1901],{"className":3117},[1969],[1871,3119],{"className":3120,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3122,3124,3127],{"className":3123},[1946],[1871,3125],{"className":3126,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,3128,3130],{"className":3129},[1955],"8%.",[1798,3132,3133],{},"如果你的生活费从 500 元涨到 525 元，名义上增加 5%。但物价涨了 8%，你的实际购买力大约下降 3%。",[2292,3135,3137],{"id":3136},"b-失业率","B. 失业率",[1798,3139,3140],{},"假设某经济体有：",[2300,3142,3143,3146,3149],{},[1826,3144,3145],{},"就业者 9000 万人；",[1826,3147,3148],{},"正在找工作的失业者 1000 万人；",[1826,3150,3151],{},"不在劳动力中的成年人 5000 万人。",[1798,3153,3154],{},"劳动力为：",[1871,3156,3158],{"className":3157},[1874],[1871,3159,3161,3190],{"className":3160},[1878],[1871,3162,3164],{"className":3163},[1882],[1884,3165,3166],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,3167,3168,3187],{},[1892,3169,3170,3173,3175,3177,3179,3182,3185],{},[1922,3171,3172],{},"9000",[1899,3174,2544],{},[1922,3176,2969],{},[1899,3178,1901],{},[1922,3180,3181],{},"10000",[1895,3183,3184],{}," 万人",[1926,3186,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,3188,3189],{"encoding":1936},"9000 + 1000 = 10000 \\text{ 万人}.",[1871,3191,3193,3212,3231],{"className":3192,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,3194,3196,3200,3203,3206,3209],{"className":3195},[1946],[1871,3197],{"className":3198,"style":3199},[1950],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1871,3201,3172],{"className":3202},[1955],[1871,3204],{"className":3205,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3207,2544],{"className":3208},[2064],[1871,3210],{"className":3211,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3213,3215,3219,3222,3225,3228],{"className":3214},[1946],[1871,3216],{"className":3217,"style":3218},[1950],"height:0.6444em;",[1871,3220,2969],{"className":3221},[1955],[1871,3223],{"className":3224,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3226,1901],{"className":3227},[1969],[1871,3229],{"className":3230,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3232,3234,3237,3240,3251],{"className":3233},[1946],[1871,3235],{"className":3236,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,3238,3181],{"className":3239},[1955],[1871,3241,3243,3247],{"className":3242},[1955,1956],[1871,3244,3246],{"className":3245},[1955]," ",[1871,3248,3250],{"className":3249},[1955,1960],"万人",[1871,3252,1932],{"className":3253},[1955],[1798,3255,3256],{},"失业率为：",[1871,3258,3260],{"className":3259},[1874],[1871,3261,3263,3296],{"className":3262},[1878],[1871,3264,3266],{"className":3265},[1882],[1884,3267,3268],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,3269,3270,3293],{},[1892,3271,3272,3278,3280,3282,3284,3286,3289,3291],{},[1903,3273,3274,3276],{},[1922,3275,2969],{},[1922,3277,3181],{},[1899,3279,1920],{},[1922,3281,1924],{},[1926,3283,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1899,3285,1901],{},[1922,3287,3288],{},"10",[1926,3290,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1926,3292,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,3294,3295],{"encoding":1936},"\\frac{1000}{10000} \\times 100\\% = 10\\%.",[1871,3297,3299,3376,3394],{"className":3298,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,3300,3302,3305,3367,3370,3373],{"className":3301},[1946],[1871,3303],{"className":3304,"style":2174},[1950],[1871,3306,3308,3311,3364],{"className":3307},[1955],[1871,3309],{"className":3310},[1986,1987],[1871,3312,3314],{"className":3313},[1903],[1871,3315,3317,3356],{"className":3316},[1994,1995],[1871,3318,3320,3353],{"className":3319},[1999],[1871,3321,3323,3334,3342],{"className":3322,"style":2193},[2003],[1871,3324,3325,3328],{"style":2007},[1871,3326],{"className":3327,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3329,3331],{"className":3330},[1955],[1871,3332,3181],{"className":3333},[1955],[1871,3335,3336,3339],{"style":2029},[1871,3337],{"className":3338,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3340],{"className":3341,"style":2037},[2036],[1871,3343,3344,3347],{"style":2040},[1871,3345],{"className":3346,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3348,3350],{"className":3349},[1955],[1871,3351,2969],{"className":3352},[1955],[1871,3354,2081],{"className":3355},[2080],[1871,3357,3359],{"className":3358},[1999],[1871,3360,3362],{"className":3361,"style":2088},[2003],[1871,3363],{},[1871,3365],{"className":3366},[2094,1987],[1871,3368],{"className":3369,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3371,1920],{"className":3372},[2064],[1871,3374],{"className":3375,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3377,3379,3382,3385,3388,3391],{"className":3378},[1946],[1871,3380],{"className":3381,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,3383,2268],{"className":3384},[1955],[1871,3386],{"className":3387,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3389,1901],{"className":3390},[1969],[1871,3392],{"className":3393,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3395,3397,3400],{"className":3396},[1946],[1871,3398],{"className":3399,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,3401,3403],{"className":3402},[1955],"10%.",[1798,3405,3406],{},"成年人口为：",[1871,3408,3410],{"className":3409},[1874],[1871,3411,3413,3445],{"className":3412},[1878],[1871,3414,3416],{"className":3415},[1882],[1884,3417,3418],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,3419,3420,3442],{},[1892,3421,3422,3424,3426,3428,3430,3433,3435,3438,3440],{},[1922,3423,3172],{},[1899,3425,2544],{},[1922,3427,2969],{},[1899,3429,2544],{},[1922,3431,3432],{},"5000",[1899,3434,1901],{},[1922,3436,3437],{},"15000",[1895,3439,3184],{},[1926,3441,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,3443,3444],{"encoding":1936},"9000 + 1000 + 5000 = 15000 \\text{ 万人}.",[1871,3446,3448,3466,3484,3502],{"className":3447,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,3449,3451,3454,3457,3460,3463],{"className":3450},[1946],[1871,3452],{"className":3453,"style":3199},[1950],[1871,3455,3172],{"className":3456},[1955],[1871,3458],{"className":3459,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3461,2544],{"className":3462},[2064],[1871,3464],{"className":3465,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3467,3469,3472,3475,3478,3481],{"className":3468},[1946],[1871,3470],{"className":3471,"style":3199},[1950],[1871,3473,2969],{"className":3474},[1955],[1871,3476],{"className":3477,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3479,2544],{"className":3480},[2064],[1871,3482],{"className":3483,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3485,3487,3490,3493,3496,3499],{"className":3486},[1946],[1871,3488],{"className":3489,"style":3218},[1950],[1871,3491,3432],{"className":3492},[1955],[1871,3494],{"className":3495,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3497,1901],{"className":3498},[1969],[1871,3500],{"className":3501,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3503,3505,3508,3511,3520],{"className":3504},[1946],[1871,3506],{"className":3507,"style":1951},[1950],[1871,3509,3437],{"className":3510},[1955],[1871,3512,3514,3517],{"className":3513},[1955,1956],[1871,3515,3246],{"className":3516},[1955],[1871,3518,3250],{"className":3519},[1955,1960],[1871,3521,1932],{"className":3522},[1955],[1798,3524,3525],{},"劳动参与率为：",[1871,3527,3529],{"className":3528},[1874],[1871,3530,3532,3565],{"className":3531},[1878],[1871,3533,3535],{"className":3534},[1882],[1884,3536,3537],{"xmlns":1886,"display":1887},[1889,3538,3539,3562],{},[1892,3540,3541,3547,3549,3551,3553,3555,3558,3560],{},[1903,3542,3543,3545],{},[1922,3544,3181],{},[1922,3546,3437],{},[1899,3548,1920],{},[1922,3550,1924],{},[1926,3552,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1899,3554,1901],{},[1922,3556,3557],{},"66.7",[1926,3559,1929],{"mathvariant":1928},[1926,3561,1932],{"mathvariant":1928},[1934,3563,3564],{"encoding":1936},"\\frac{10000}{15000} \\times 100\\% = 66.7\\%.",[1871,3566,3568,3645,3663],{"className":3567,"ariaHidden":1942},[1941],[1871,3569,3571,3574,3636,3639,3642],{"className":3570},[1946],[1871,3572],{"className":3573,"style":2174},[1950],[1871,3575,3577,3580,3633],{"className":3576},[1955],[1871,3578],{"className":3579},[1986,1987],[1871,3581,3583],{"className":3582},[1903],[1871,3584,3586,3625],{"className":3585},[1994,1995],[1871,3587,3589,3622],{"className":3588},[1999],[1871,3590,3592,3603,3611],{"className":3591,"style":2193},[2003],[1871,3593,3594,3597],{"style":2007},[1871,3595],{"className":3596,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3598,3600],{"className":3599},[1955],[1871,3601,3437],{"className":3602},[1955],[1871,3604,3605,3608],{"style":2029},[1871,3606],{"className":3607,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3609],{"className":3610,"style":2037},[2036],[1871,3612,3613,3616],{"style":2040},[1871,3614],{"className":3615,"style":2012},[2011],[1871,3617,3619],{"className":3618},[1955],[1871,3620,3181],{"className":3621},[1955],[1871,3623,2081],{"className":3624},[2080],[1871,3626,3628],{"className":3627},[1999],[1871,3629,3631],{"className":3630,"style":2088},[2003],[1871,3632],{},[1871,3634],{"className":3635},[2094,1987],[1871,3637],{"className":3638,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3640,1920],{"className":3641},[2064],[1871,3643],{"className":3644,"style":2060},[1964],[1871,3646,3648,3651,3654,3657,3660],{"className":3647},[1946],[1871,3649],{"className":3650,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,3652,2268],{"className":3653},[1955],[1871,3655],{"className":3656,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3658,1901],{"className":3659},[1969],[1871,3661],{"className":3662,"style":1965},[1964],[1871,3664,3666,3669],{"className":3665},[1946],[1871,3667],{"className":3668,"style":2110},[1950],[1871,3670,3672],{"className":3671},[1955],"66.7%.",[1798,3674,3675],{},"如果其中 200 万失业者灰心退出找工作，官方失业人数会下降，劳动力也会下降，失业率看起来可能变好。但这并不代表就业真实改善，因为有人只是退出统计口径了。",[1793,3677,3679],{"id":3678},"_65-三类失业","6.5 三类失业",[1798,3681,3682],{},"失业不是一种原因造成的。",[2300,3684,3685,3691,3697],{},[1826,3686,3687,3690],{},[1805,3688,3689],{},"摩擦性失业","：找工作需要时间。毕业生找第一份工作、员工换城市工作，都可能出现这种失业。",[1826,3692,3693,3696],{},[1805,3694,3695],{},"结构性失业","：劳动者的技能、地区或行业与岗位需求不匹配。",[1826,3698,3699,3702],{},[1805,3700,3701],{},"周期性失业","：经济衰退时总需求不足，企业减少招聘甚至裁员。",[1798,3704,3705],{},"摩擦性失业通常是正常现象。结构性失业更需要教育培训和产业调整。周期性失业则和宏观经济波动关系更大。",[1793,3707,3709],{"id":3708},"_66-通胀与失业的短期权衡","6.6 通胀与失业的短期权衡",[1798,3711,3712],{},"短期内，刺激总需求可能降低失业，但如果经济已经接近产能上限，也可能推高通胀。政策制定者经常要在稳就业和稳物价之间权衡。",[1798,3714,3715,3716,3719],{},"这个思路常和 ",[1805,3717,3718],{},"菲利普斯曲线"," 联系在一起。但请注意，关键词是“短期”。长期看，劳动者和企业会调整预期，失业水平更多取决于劳动市场结构、生产率、教育水平和制度环境。靠持续制造高通胀来压低失业，通常行不通。",[1793,3721,3722],{"id":3722},"常见误区与考试陷阱",[1823,3724,3725,3731,3737,3743,3749],{},[1826,3726,3727,3730],{},[1805,3728,3729],{},"把价格水平高和通胀高混为一谈。"," 通胀是价格上涨速度，不是价格绝对水平。",[1826,3732,3733,3736],{},[1805,3734,3735],{},"把反通胀说成通缩。"," 通胀从 6% 降到 3%，价格仍然在上涨。",[1826,3738,3739,3742],{},[1805,3740,3741],{},"只看名义工资。"," 判断生活水平要比较工资涨幅和物价涨幅。",[1826,3744,3745,3748],{},[1805,3746,3747],{},"把灰心退出找工作的人算作失业者。"," 按统计定义，他们不再属于劳动力。",[1826,3750,3751,3754],{},[1805,3752,3753],{},"把所有失业都当成经济衰退造成。"," 摩擦性、结构性、周期性失业原因不同，政策也不同。",[1793,3756,3757],{"id":3757},"自测题",[1823,3759,3760,3775,3785,3795,3805],{},[1826,3761,3762,3763],{},"CPI 从 150 上升到 159，通胀率是多少？\n",[2300,3764,3765],{},[1826,3766,3767,3770,3771,2336],{},[1805,3768,3769],{},"答案提示："," ",[3772,3773,3774],"code",{},"(159 - 150) \u002F 150 × 100% = 6%",[1826,3776,3777,3778],{},"工资上涨 4%，物价上涨 7%，实际工资怎样变化？\n",[2300,3779,3780],{},[1826,3781,3782,3784],{},[1805,3783,3769],{}," 实际工资大约下降 3%，钱变多但购买力下降。",[1826,3786,3787,3788],{},"为什么灰心丧气、停止找工作的人不计入失业者？\n",[2300,3789,3790],{},[1826,3791,3792,3794],{},[1805,3793,3769],{}," 失业者必须没有工作且正在积极找工作。",[1826,3796,3797,3798],{},"哪一类失业最接近经济衰退造成的失业？\n",[2300,3799,3800],{},[1826,3801,3802,3804],{},[1805,3803,3769],{}," 周期性失业，因为它来自总需求不足。",[1826,3806,3807,3808],{},"为什么意外通胀比预期内通胀更麻烦？\n",[2300,3809,3810],{},[1826,3811,3812,3814],{},[1805,3813,3769],{}," 工资、合同、贷款和储蓄安排都是按原有预期做的，突然变化会打乱利益分配。",[1793,3816,3817],{"id":3817},"本章小结与过渡",[1798,3819,3820],{},"通胀衡量价格水平上升速度，失业衡量劳动力资源没有被充分使用的程度。理解这两个指标，必须分清名义和实际，也要搞清楚劳动力统计口径。",[1798,3822,3823,3824,2336],{},"下一章我们把目光从短期压力转向长期问题：为什么有些国家几十年后明显变富，而有些国家长期停滞？这就是",[1805,3825,3826],{},"经济增长",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3828,"depth":3828,"links":3829},2,[3830,3831,3832,3836,3837,3838,3839,3843,3844,3845,3846,3847],{"id":1795,"depth":3828,"text":1796},{"id":1818,"depth":3828,"text":1818},{"id":1849,"depth":3828,"text":1850,"children":3833},[3834],{"id":2294,"depth":3835,"text":2295},3,{"id":2325,"depth":3828,"text":2326},{"id":2459,"depth":3828,"text":2460},{"id":2492,"depth":3828,"text":2493},{"id":2930,"depth":3828,"text":2931,"children":3840},[3841,3842],{"id":2934,"depth":3835,"text":2935},{"id":3136,"depth":3835,"text":3137},{"id":3678,"depth":3828,"text":3679},{"id":3708,"depth":3828,"text":3709},{"id":3722,"depth":3828,"text":3722},{"id":3757,"depth":3828,"text":3757},{"id":3817,"depth":3828,"text":3817},"价格水平、通货膨胀、失业率和劳动力市场的基本衡量。","md",null,{},true,{"title":1394,"description":3848},"8Ydb5mxIsTSPHQORuYZzdz8MnjhLGtPJPcRNO4XaTzM",[3856,3858],{"title":1390,"path":1391,"stem":1392,"description":3857,"children":-1},"理解 GDP、最终产品、生产边界和宏观经济衡量。",{"title":1398,"path":1399,"stem":1400,"description":3859,"children":-1},"长期增长、劳动生产率、资本积累、人力资本、技术进步和制度环境。",1785754749471]