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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":1254,"body":1785,"description":4591,"extension":4592,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":4593,"navigation":1782,"path":1255,"published":4596,"seo":4597,"stem":1256,"__hash__":4598},"docs\u002Fzh\u002Fasset-pricing\u002F01-intro\u002Findex.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":4570},"minimark",[1788,1792,1796,1799,1803,1863,1866,1869,1888,1891,1909,1912,1915,1965,1968,1972,1975,2062,2065,2377,2582,2587,2590,2594,2843,3226,3229,3232,3235,3506,3509,3512,3515,3518,3521,3524,3527,3531,3534,3826,3829,4012,4015,4169,4172,4176,4179,4186,4189,4192,4264,4268,4271,4304,4307,4321,4324,4564,4567],[1789,1790,1254],"h1",{"id":1791},"第一章引言与基础",[1793,1794,1795],"p",{},"本章是整门资产定价课程的起点。不要急着背复杂模型，先把几个最基本的问题想清楚：资产价格为什么可以被看作未来现金流的现值？收益率和风险为什么总是一起讨论？无套利为什么能在很少假设下给出强有力的定价约束？",[1793,1797,1798],{},"从课程安排上看，本章相当于后面所有模型的“语言准备”。后续的均值-方差、CAPM、期权定价和固定收益都会反复使用这里的概念。如果第一遍读完觉得公式不难，也建议结合真实市场数据做几道小练习，因为收益率口径、复利频率、超额收益和贴现因子这些细节，往往决定后续实证结果是否可靠。",[1800,1801,1802],"h2",{"id":1802},"本章路线",[1804,1805,1806,1819],"table",{},[1807,1808,1809],"thead",{},[1810,1811,1812,1816],"tr",{},[1813,1814,1815],"th",{},"课次",[1813,1817,1818],{},"核心问题",[1820,1821,1822,1831,1839,1847,1855],"tbody",{},[1810,1823,1824,1828],{},[1825,1826,1827],"td",{},"1.1 定价概述",[1825,1829,1830],{},"价格怎样连接未来现金流与状态价值？",[1810,1832,1833,1836],{},[1825,1834,1835],{},"1.2 金融市场",[1825,1837,1838],{},"哪些制度、摩擦与交易安排影响价格形成？",[1810,1840,1841,1844],{},[1825,1842,1843],{},"1.3 收益与风险",[1825,1845,1846],{},"应该用哪种收益率口径，风险如何度量？",[1810,1848,1849,1852],{},[1825,1850,1851],{},"1.4 时间价值",[1825,1853,1854],{},"不同时点的现金流怎样放到同一尺度？",[1810,1856,1857,1860],{},[1825,1858,1859],{},"1.5 无套利",[1825,1861,1862],{},"相同现金流为什么必须具有相同价格？",[1800,1864,1865],{"id":1865},"学习成果",[1793,1867,1868],{},"通过本章学习，你将掌握：",[1870,1871,1872,1876,1879,1882,1885],"ol",{},[1873,1874,1875],"li",{},"资产定价理论的基本框架和研究问题",[1873,1877,1878],{},"金融市场的基本结构和功能",[1873,1880,1881],{},"收益率的计算方法和风险度量指标",[1873,1883,1884],{},"货币时间价值的概念和应用",[1873,1886,1887],{},"无套利原理在资产定价中的核心作用",[1793,1889,1890],{},"更具体地说，读完本章后你应该能够：",[1892,1893,1894,1897,1900,1903,1906],"ul",{},[1873,1895,1896],{},"把一项资产拆成“未来现金流”和“折现方式”两部分来讨论。",[1873,1898,1899],{},"区分价格、收益率、超额收益、风险和风险溢价，避免把它们混成同一个概念。",[1873,1901,1902],{},"用简单收益率、对数收益率、均值、方差和协方差描述一组金融数据。",[1873,1904,1905],{},"解释为什么无套利条件可以给出价格边界，却不一定能直接解释风险溢价。",[1873,1907,1908],{},"为后续的效用理论、投资组合、CAPM 和期权复制组合做好符号与直觉准备。",[1800,1910,1911],{"id":1911},"金融与经济动机",[1793,1913,1914],{},"资产定价不是只为“算出一个价格”。在金融市场里，价格同时承担三项任务：",[1804,1916,1917,1930],{},[1807,1918,1919],{},[1810,1920,1921,1924,1927],{},[1813,1922,1923],{},"任务",[1813,1925,1926],{},"对应问题",[1813,1928,1929],{},"本章入口",[1820,1931,1932,1943,1954],{},[1810,1933,1934,1937,1940],{},[1825,1935,1936],{},"配置资本",[1825,1938,1939],{},"哪些项目值得融资，哪些风险应该被补偿",[1825,1941,1942],{},"时间价值、贴现率",[1810,1944,1945,1948,1951],{},[1825,1946,1947],{},"分担风险",[1825,1949,1950],{},"风险如何在不同投资者之间重新分配",[1825,1952,1953],{},"收益率、风险度量",[1810,1955,1956,1959,1962],{},[1825,1957,1958],{},"汇总信息",[1825,1960,1961],{},"价格是否已经反映现金流、利率和信息变化",[1825,1963,1964],{},"金融市场、无套利",[1793,1966,1967],{},"因此，本章的关键不是把“价格等于现值”背下来，而是理解：同一笔未来现金流在不同状态下价值不同；同一项资产对不同投资者的风险也可能不同；市场价格正是在这些现金流、状态价格和交易约束之间形成的。",[1800,1969,1971],{"id":1970},"先建立直觉再写公式","先建立直觉，再写公式",[1793,1973,1974],{},"最基本的定价想法可以写成：",[1976,1977,1980],"span",{"className":1978},[1979],"katex-display",[1976,1981,1984,2015],{"className":1982},[1983],"katex",[1976,1985,1988],{"className":1986},[1987],"katex-mathml",[1989,1990,1993],"math",{"xmlns":1991,"display":1992},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1994,1995,1996,2010],"semantics",{},[1997,1998,1999,2003,2007],"mrow",{},[2000,2001,2002],"mtext",{},"今天的价格",[2004,2005,2006],"mo",{},"=",[2000,2008,2009],{},"未来支付的贴现值",[2011,2012,2014],"annotation",{"encoding":2013},"application\u002Fx-tex","\\text{今天的价格}=\\text{未来支付的贴现值}",[1976,2016,2020,2050],{"className":2017,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],"katex-html","true",[1976,2021,2024,2029,2038,2043,2047],{"className":2022},[2023],"base",[1976,2025],{"className":2026,"style":2028},[2027],"strut","height:0.6833em;",[1976,2030,2034],{"className":2031},[2032,2033],"mord","text",[1976,2035,2002],{"className":2036},[2032,2037],"cjk_fallback",[1976,2039],{"className":2040,"style":2042},[2041],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1976,2044,2006],{"className":2045},[2046],"mrel",[1976,2048],{"className":2049,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,2051,2053,2056],{"className":2052},[2023],[1976,2054],{"className":2055,"style":2028},[2027],[1976,2057,2059],{"className":2058},[2032,2033],[1976,2060,2009],{"className":2061},[2032,2037],[1793,2063,2064],{},"如果未来支付没有风险，贴现率主要来自时间价值；如果未来支付有风险，贴现率还要补偿投资者不愿意持有的风险。更一般地，现代资产定价会把这个想法写成：",[1976,2066,2068],{"className":2067},[1979],[1976,2069,2071,2138],{"className":2070},[1983],[1976,2072,2074],{"className":2073},[1987],[1989,2075,2076],{"xmlns":1991,"display":1992},[1994,2077,2078,2135],{},[1997,2079,2080,2090,2092,2099,2103,2119,2132],{},[2081,2082,2083,2087],"msub",{},[2084,2085,2086],"mi",{},"P",[2084,2088,2089],{},"t",[2004,2091,2006],{},[2081,2093,2094,2097],{},[2084,2095,2096],{},"E",[2084,2098,2089],{},[2004,2100,2102],{"stretchy":2101},"false","[",[2081,2104,2105,2108],{},[2084,2106,2107],{},"M",[1997,2109,2110,2112,2115],{},[2084,2111,2089],{},[2004,2113,2114],{},"+",[2116,2117,2118],"mn",{},"1",[2081,2120,2121,2124],{},[2084,2122,2123],{},"X",[1997,2125,2126,2128,2130],{},[2084,2127,2089],{},[2004,2129,2114],{},[2116,2131,2118],{},[2004,2133,2134],{"stretchy":2101},"]",[2011,2136,2137],{"encoding":2013},"P_t = E_t[M_{t+1}X_{t+1}]",[1976,2139,2141,2215],{"className":2140,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2142,2144,2148,2206,2209,2212],{"className":2143},[2023],[1976,2145],{"className":2146,"style":2147},[2027],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1976,2149,2151,2156],{"className":2150},[2032],[1976,2152,2086],{"className":2153,"style":2155},[2032,2154],"mathnormal","margin-right:0.1389em;",[1976,2157,2160],{"className":2158},[2159],"msupsub",[1976,2161,2165,2197],{"className":2162},[2163,2164],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1976,2166,2169,2192],{"className":2167},[2168],"vlist-r",[1976,2170,2174],{"className":2171,"style":2173},[2172],"vlist","height:0.2806em;",[1976,2175,2177,2182],{"style":2176},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1389em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,2178],{"className":2179,"style":2181},[2180],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[1976,2183,2189],{"className":2184},[2185,2186,2187,2188],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1976,2190,2089],{"className":2191},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2193,2196],{"className":2194},[2195],"vlist-s","​",[1976,2198,2200],{"className":2199},[2168],[1976,2201,2204],{"className":2202,"style":2203},[2172],"height:0.15em;",[1976,2205],{},[1976,2207],{"className":2208,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,2210,2006],{"className":2211},[2046],[1976,2213],{"className":2214,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,2216,2218,2222,2264,2268,2322,2373],{"className":2217},[2023],[1976,2219],{"className":2220,"style":2221},[2027],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1976,2223,2225,2229],{"className":2224},[2032],[1976,2226,2096],{"className":2227,"style":2228},[2032,2154],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[1976,2230,2232],{"className":2231},[2159],[1976,2233,2235,2256],{"className":2234},[2163,2164],[1976,2236,2238,2253],{"className":2237},[2168],[1976,2239,2241],{"className":2240,"style":2173},[2172],[1976,2242,2244,2247],{"style":2243},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0576em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,2245],{"className":2246,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2248,2250],{"className":2249},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2251,2089],{"className":2252},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2254,2196],{"className":2255},[2195],[1976,2257,2259],{"className":2258},[2168],[1976,2260,2262],{"className":2261,"style":2203},[2172],[1976,2263],{},[1976,2265,2102],{"className":2266},[2267],"mopen",[1976,2269,2271,2275],{"className":2270},[2032],[1976,2272,2107],{"className":2273,"style":2274},[2032,2154],"margin-right:0.109em;",[1976,2276,2278],{"className":2277},[2159],[1976,2279,2281,2313],{"className":2280},[2163,2164],[1976,2282,2284,2310],{"className":2283},[2168],[1976,2285,2288],{"className":2286,"style":2287},[2172],"height:0.3011em;",[1976,2289,2291,2294],{"style":2290},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.109em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,2292],{"className":2293,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2295,2297],{"className":2296},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2298,2300,2303,2307],{"className":2299},[2032,2188],[1976,2301,2089],{"className":2302},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2304,2114],{"className":2305},[2306,2188],"mbin",[1976,2308,2118],{"className":2309},[2032,2188],[1976,2311,2196],{"className":2312},[2195],[1976,2314,2316],{"className":2315},[2168],[1976,2317,2320],{"className":2318,"style":2319},[2172],"height:0.2083em;",[1976,2321],{},[1976,2323,2325,2329],{"className":2324},[2032],[1976,2326,2123],{"className":2327,"style":2328},[2032,2154],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[1976,2330,2332],{"className":2331},[2159],[1976,2333,2335,2365],{"className":2334},[2163,2164],[1976,2336,2338,2362],{"className":2337},[2168],[1976,2339,2341],{"className":2340,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,2342,2344,2347],{"style":2343},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0785em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,2345],{"className":2346,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2348,2350],{"className":2349},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2351,2353,2356,2359],{"className":2352},[2032,2188],[1976,2354,2089],{"className":2355},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2357,2114],{"className":2358},[2306,2188],[1976,2360,2118],{"className":2361},[2032,2188],[1976,2363,2196],{"className":2364},[2195],[1976,2366,2368],{"className":2367},[2168],[1976,2369,2371],{"className":2370,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,2372],{},[1976,2374,2134],{"className":2375},[2376],"mclose",[1793,2378,2379,2380,2466,2467,2552,2553,2581],{},"这里的 ",[1976,2381,2383,2407],{"className":2382},[1983],[1976,2384,2386],{"className":2385},[1987],[1989,2387,2388],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,2389,2390,2404],{},[1997,2391,2392],{},[2081,2393,2394,2396],{},[2084,2395,2123],{},[1997,2397,2398,2400,2402],{},[2084,2399,2089],{},[2004,2401,2114],{},[2116,2403,2118],{},[2011,2405,2406],{"encoding":2013},"X_{t+1}",[1976,2408,2410],{"className":2409,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2411,2413,2417],{"className":2412},[2023],[1976,2414],{"className":2415,"style":2416},[2027],"height:0.8917em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1976,2418,2420,2423],{"className":2419},[2032],[1976,2421,2123],{"className":2422,"style":2328},[2032,2154],[1976,2424,2426],{"className":2425},[2159],[1976,2427,2429,2458],{"className":2428},[2163,2164],[1976,2430,2432,2455],{"className":2431},[2168],[1976,2433,2435],{"className":2434,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,2436,2437,2440],{"style":2343},[1976,2438],{"className":2439,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2441,2443],{"className":2442},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2444,2446,2449,2452],{"className":2445},[2032,2188],[1976,2447,2089],{"className":2448},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2450,2114],{"className":2451},[2306,2188],[1976,2453,2118],{"className":2454},[2032,2188],[1976,2456,2196],{"className":2457},[2195],[1976,2459,2461],{"className":2460},[2168],[1976,2462,2464],{"className":2463,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,2465],{}," 是下期支付，",[1976,2468,2470,2494],{"className":2469},[1983],[1976,2471,2473],{"className":2472},[1987],[1989,2474,2475],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,2476,2477,2491],{},[1997,2478,2479],{},[2081,2480,2481,2483],{},[2084,2482,2107],{},[1997,2484,2485,2487,2489],{},[2084,2486,2089],{},[2004,2488,2114],{},[2116,2490,2118],{},[2011,2492,2493],{"encoding":2013},"M_{t+1}",[1976,2495,2497],{"className":2496,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2498,2500,2503],{"className":2499},[2023],[1976,2501],{"className":2502,"style":2416},[2027],[1976,2504,2506,2509],{"className":2505},[2032],[1976,2507,2107],{"className":2508,"style":2274},[2032,2154],[1976,2510,2512],{"className":2511},[2159],[1976,2513,2515,2544],{"className":2514},[2163,2164],[1976,2516,2518,2541],{"className":2517},[2168],[1976,2519,2521],{"className":2520,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,2522,2523,2526],{"style":2290},[1976,2524],{"className":2525,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2527,2529],{"className":2528},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2530,2532,2535,2538],{"className":2531},[2032,2188],[1976,2533,2089],{"className":2534},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2536,2114],{"className":2537},[2306,2188],[1976,2539,2118],{"className":2540},[2032,2188],[1976,2542,2196],{"className":2543},[2195],[1976,2545,2547],{"className":2546},[2168],[1976,2548,2550],{"className":2549,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,2551],{}," 是随机贴现因子。直觉上，",[1976,2554,2556,2569],{"className":2555},[1983],[1976,2557,2559],{"className":2558},[1987],[1989,2560,2561],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,2562,2563,2567],{},[1997,2564,2565],{},[2084,2566,2107],{},[2011,2568,2107],{"encoding":2013},[1976,2570,2572],{"className":2571,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2573,2575,2578],{"className":2574},[2023],[1976,2576],{"className":2577,"style":2028},[2027],[1976,2579,2107],{"className":2580,"style":2274},[2032,2154]," 给不同状态分配“今天的价值权重”：经济很差、边际消费很宝贵的状态，通常会有更高的状态价格；在这些状态支付更多的资产更像保险，预期收益率可以更低。",[2583,2584,2586],"tip",{"title":2585},"先不用急着完全掌握 SDF","本章只需要知道：随机贴现因子是把“贴现”“风险偏好”“状态价格”和“无套利”放进同一个表达式的工具。第六章会系统展开。",[1800,2588,2589],{"id":2589},"关键定义与定理",[2591,2592,2593],"h3",{"id":2593},"收益率",[1793,2595,2596,2597,2667,2668,2753,2754,2842],{},"若资产今天价格为 ",[1976,2598,2600,2618],{"className":2599},[1983],[1976,2601,2603],{"className":2602},[1987],[1989,2604,2605],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,2606,2607,2615],{},[1997,2608,2609],{},[2081,2610,2611,2613],{},[2084,2612,2086],{},[2084,2614,2089],{},[2011,2616,2617],{"encoding":2013},"P_t",[1976,2619,2621],{"className":2620,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2622,2624,2627],{"className":2623},[2023],[1976,2625],{"className":2626,"style":2147},[2027],[1976,2628,2630,2633],{"className":2629},[2032],[1976,2631,2086],{"className":2632,"style":2155},[2032,2154],[1976,2634,2636],{"className":2635},[2159],[1976,2637,2639,2659],{"className":2638},[2163,2164],[1976,2640,2642,2656],{"className":2641},[2168],[1976,2643,2645],{"className":2644,"style":2173},[2172],[1976,2646,2647,2650],{"style":2176},[1976,2648],{"className":2649,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2651,2653],{"className":2652},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2654,2089],{"className":2655},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2657,2196],{"className":2658},[2195],[1976,2660,2662],{"className":2661},[2168],[1976,2663,2665],{"className":2664,"style":2203},[2172],[1976,2666],{},"，下一期价格为 ",[1976,2669,2671,2695],{"className":2670},[1983],[1976,2672,2674],{"className":2673},[1987],[1989,2675,2676],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,2677,2678,2692],{},[1997,2679,2680],{},[2081,2681,2682,2684],{},[2084,2683,2086],{},[1997,2685,2686,2688,2690],{},[2084,2687,2089],{},[2004,2689,2114],{},[2116,2691,2118],{},[2011,2693,2694],{"encoding":2013},"P_{t+1}",[1976,2696,2698],{"className":2697,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2699,2701,2704],{"className":2700},[2023],[1976,2702],{"className":2703,"style":2416},[2027],[1976,2705,2707,2710],{"className":2706},[2032],[1976,2708,2086],{"className":2709,"style":2155},[2032,2154],[1976,2711,2713],{"className":2712},[2159],[1976,2714,2716,2745],{"className":2715},[2163,2164],[1976,2717,2719,2742],{"className":2718},[2168],[1976,2720,2722],{"className":2721,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,2723,2724,2727],{"style":2176},[1976,2725],{"className":2726,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2728,2730],{"className":2729},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2731,2733,2736,2739],{"className":2732},[2032,2188],[1976,2734,2089],{"className":2735},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2737,2114],{"className":2738},[2306,2188],[1976,2740,2118],{"className":2741},[2032,2188],[1976,2743,2196],{"className":2744},[2195],[1976,2746,2748],{"className":2747},[2168],[1976,2749,2751],{"className":2750,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,2752],{},"，期间现金流为 ",[1976,2755,2757,2782],{"className":2756},[1983],[1976,2758,2760],{"className":2759},[1987],[1989,2761,2762],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,2763,2764,2779],{},[1997,2765,2766],{},[2081,2767,2768,2771],{},[2084,2769,2770],{},"D",[1997,2772,2773,2775,2777],{},[2084,2774,2089],{},[2004,2776,2114],{},[2116,2778,2118],{},[2011,2780,2781],{"encoding":2013},"D_{t+1}",[1976,2783,2785],{"className":2784,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2786,2788,2791],{"className":2787},[2023],[1976,2789],{"className":2790,"style":2416},[2027],[1976,2792,2794,2798],{"className":2793},[2032],[1976,2795,2770],{"className":2796,"style":2797},[2032,2154],"margin-right:0.0278em;",[1976,2799,2801],{"className":2800},[2159],[1976,2802,2804,2834],{"className":2803},[2163,2164],[1976,2805,2807,2831],{"className":2806},[2168],[1976,2808,2810],{"className":2809,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,2811,2813,2816],{"style":2812},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,2814],{"className":2815,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2817,2819],{"className":2818},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2820,2822,2825,2828],{"className":2821},[2032,2188],[1976,2823,2089],{"className":2824},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2826,2114],{"className":2827},[2306,2188],[1976,2829,2118],{"className":2830},[2032,2188],[1976,2832,2196],{"className":2833},[2195],[1976,2835,2837],{"className":2836},[2168],[1976,2838,2840],{"className":2839,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,2841],{},"，简单收益率为：",[1976,2844,2846],{"className":2845},[1979],[1976,2847,2849,2918],{"className":2848},[1983],[1976,2850,2852],{"className":2851},[1987],[1989,2853,2854],{"xmlns":1991,"display":1992},[1994,2855,2856,2915],{},[1997,2857,2858,2871,2873,2910,2913],{},[2081,2859,2860,2863],{},[2084,2861,2862],{},"R",[1997,2864,2865,2867,2869],{},[2084,2866,2089],{},[2004,2868,2114],{},[2116,2870,2118],{},[2004,2872,2006],{},[2874,2875,2876,2904],"mfrac",{},[1997,2877,2878,2890,2892],{},[2081,2879,2880,2882],{},[2084,2881,2086],{},[1997,2883,2884,2886,2888],{},[2084,2885,2089],{},[2004,2887,2114],{},[2116,2889,2118],{},[2004,2891,2114],{},[2081,2893,2894,2896],{},[2084,2895,2770],{},[1997,2897,2898,2900,2902],{},[2084,2899,2089],{},[2004,2901,2114],{},[2116,2903,2118],{},[2081,2905,2906,2908],{},[2084,2907,2086],{},[2084,2909,2089],{},[2004,2911,2912],{},"−",[2116,2914,2118],{},[2011,2916,2917],{"encoding":2013},"R_{t+1}=\\frac{P_{t+1}+D_{t+1}}{P_t}-1",[1976,2919,2921,2987,3216],{"className":2920,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,2922,2924,2927,2978,2981,2984],{"className":2923},[2023],[1976,2925],{"className":2926,"style":2416},[2027],[1976,2928,2930,2934],{"className":2929},[2032],[1976,2931,2862],{"className":2932,"style":2933},[2032,2154],"margin-right:0.0077em;",[1976,2935,2937],{"className":2936},[2159],[1976,2938,2940,2970],{"className":2939},[2163,2164],[1976,2941,2943,2967],{"className":2942},[2168],[1976,2944,2946],{"className":2945,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,2947,2949,2952],{"style":2948},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,2950],{"className":2951,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,2953,2955],{"className":2954},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,2956,2958,2961,2964],{"className":2957},[2032,2188],[1976,2959,2089],{"className":2960},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,2962,2114],{"className":2963},[2306,2188],[1976,2965,2118],{"className":2966},[2032,2188],[1976,2968,2196],{"className":2969},[2195],[1976,2971,2973],{"className":2972},[2168],[1976,2974,2976],{"className":2975,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,2977],{},[1976,2979],{"className":2980,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,2982,2006],{"className":2983},[2046],[1976,2985],{"className":2986,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,2988,2990,2994,3207,3210,3213],{"className":2989},[2023],[1976,2991],{"className":2992,"style":2993},[2027],"height:2.1963em;vertical-align:-0.836em;",[1976,2995,2997,3001,3204],{"className":2996},[2032],[1976,2998],{"className":2999},[2267,3000],"nulldelimiter",[1976,3002,3004],{"className":3003},[2874],[1976,3005,3007,3195],{"className":3006},[2163,2164],[1976,3008,3010,3192],{"className":3009},[2168],[1976,3011,3014,3064,3075],{"className":3012,"style":3013},[2172],"height:1.3603em;",[1976,3015,3017,3021],{"style":3016},"top:-2.314em;",[1976,3018],{"className":3019,"style":3020},[2180],"height:3em;",[1976,3022,3024],{"className":3023},[2032],[1976,3025,3027,3030],{"className":3026},[2032],[1976,3028,2086],{"className":3029,"style":2155},[2032,2154],[1976,3031,3033],{"className":3032},[2159],[1976,3034,3036,3056],{"className":3035},[2163,2164],[1976,3037,3039,3053],{"className":3038},[2168],[1976,3040,3042],{"className":3041,"style":2173},[2172],[1976,3043,3044,3047],{"style":2176},[1976,3045],{"className":3046,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3048,3050],{"className":3049},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3051,2089],{"className":3052},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3054,2196],{"className":3055},[2195],[1976,3057,3059],{"className":3058},[2168],[1976,3060,3062],{"className":3061,"style":2203},[2172],[1976,3063],{},[1976,3065,3067,3070],{"style":3066},"top:-3.23em;",[1976,3068],{"className":3069,"style":3020},[2180],[1976,3071],{"className":3072,"style":3074},[3073],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[1976,3076,3078,3081],{"style":3077},"top:-3.677em;",[1976,3079],{"className":3080,"style":3020},[2180],[1976,3082,3084,3133,3137,3140,3143],{"className":3083},[2032],[1976,3085,3087,3090],{"className":3086},[2032],[1976,3088,2086],{"className":3089,"style":2155},[2032,2154],[1976,3091,3093],{"className":3092},[2159],[1976,3094,3096,3125],{"className":3095},[2163,2164],[1976,3097,3099,3122],{"className":3098},[2168],[1976,3100,3102],{"className":3101,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,3103,3104,3107],{"style":2176},[1976,3105],{"className":3106,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3108,3110],{"className":3109},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3111,3113,3116,3119],{"className":3112},[2032,2188],[1976,3114,2089],{"className":3115},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3117,2114],{"className":3118},[2306,2188],[1976,3120,2118],{"className":3121},[2032,2188],[1976,3123,2196],{"className":3124},[2195],[1976,3126,3128],{"className":3127},[2168],[1976,3129,3131],{"className":3130,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,3132],{},[1976,3134],{"className":3135,"style":3136},[2041],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1976,3138,2114],{"className":3139},[2306],[1976,3141],{"className":3142,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3144,3146,3149],{"className":3145},[2032],[1976,3147,2770],{"className":3148,"style":2797},[2032,2154],[1976,3150,3152],{"className":3151},[2159],[1976,3153,3155,3184],{"className":3154},[2163,2164],[1976,3156,3158,3181],{"className":3157},[2168],[1976,3159,3161],{"className":3160,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,3162,3163,3166],{"style":2812},[1976,3164],{"className":3165,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3167,3169],{"className":3168},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3170,3172,3175,3178],{"className":3171},[2032,2188],[1976,3173,2089],{"className":3174},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3176,2114],{"className":3177},[2306,2188],[1976,3179,2118],{"className":3180},[2032,2188],[1976,3182,2196],{"className":3183},[2195],[1976,3185,3187],{"className":3186},[2168],[1976,3188,3190],{"className":3189,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,3191],{},[1976,3193,2196],{"className":3194},[2195],[1976,3196,3198],{"className":3197},[2168],[1976,3199,3202],{"className":3200,"style":3201},[2172],"height:0.836em;",[1976,3203],{},[1976,3205],{"className":3206},[2376,3000],[1976,3208],{"className":3209,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3211,2912],{"className":3212},[2306],[1976,3214],{"className":3215,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3217,3219,3223],{"className":3218},[2023],[1976,3220],{"className":3221,"style":3222},[2027],"height:0.6444em;",[1976,3224,2118],{"className":3225},[2032],[1793,3227,3228],{},"中文直觉：收益率把不同价格水平的资产放到同一把尺子上比较。100 元涨到 110 元和 10 元涨到 11 元，价格变化不同，但收益率都为 10%。",[2591,3230,3231],{"id":3231},"超额收益",[1793,3233,3234],{},"超额收益是风险资产收益率减去无风险收益率：",[1976,3236,3238],{"className":3237},[1979],[1976,3239,3241,3299],{"className":3240},[1983],[1976,3242,3244],{"className":3243},[1987],[1989,3245,3246],{"xmlns":1991,"display":1992},[1994,3247,3248,3296],{},[1997,3249,3250,3266,3268,3280,3282],{},[3251,3252,3253,3255,3263],"msubsup",{},[2084,3254,2862],{},[1997,3256,3257,3259,3261],{},[2084,3258,2089],{},[2004,3260,2114],{},[2116,3262,2118],{},[2084,3264,3265],{},"e",[2004,3267,2006],{},[2081,3269,3270,3272],{},[2084,3271,2862],{},[1997,3273,3274,3276,3278],{},[2084,3275,2089],{},[2004,3277,2114],{},[2116,3279,2118],{},[2004,3281,2912],{},[2081,3283,3284,3286],{},[2084,3285,2862],{},[1997,3287,3288,3291,3294],{},[2084,3289,3290],{},"f",[2004,3292,3293],{"separator":2019},",",[2084,3295,2089],{},[2011,3297,3298],{"encoding":2013},"R^e_{t+1}=R_{t+1}-R_{f,t}",[1976,3300,3302,3382,3446],{"className":3301,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,3303,3305,3309,3373,3376,3379],{"className":3304},[2023],[1976,3306],{"className":3307,"style":3308},[2027],"height:1.0197em;vertical-align:-0.3053em;",[1976,3310,3312,3315],{"className":3311},[2032],[1976,3313,2862],{"className":3314,"style":2933},[2032,2154],[1976,3316,3318],{"className":3317},[2159],[1976,3319,3321,3364],{"className":3320},[2163,2164],[1976,3322,3324,3361],{"className":3323},[2168],[1976,3325,3328,3349],{"className":3326,"style":3327},[2172],"height:0.7144em;",[1976,3329,3331,3334],{"style":3330},"top:-2.453em;margin-left:-0.0077em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,3332],{"className":3333,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3335,3337],{"className":3336},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3338,3340,3343,3346],{"className":3339},[2032,2188],[1976,3341,2089],{"className":3342},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3344,2114],{"className":3345},[2306,2188],[1976,3347,2118],{"className":3348},[2032,2188],[1976,3350,3352,3355],{"style":3351},"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1976,3353],{"className":3354,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3356,3358],{"className":3357},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3359,3265],{"className":3360},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3362,2196],{"className":3363},[2195],[1976,3365,3367],{"className":3366},[2168],[1976,3368,3371],{"className":3369,"style":3370},[2172],"height:0.3053em;",[1976,3372],{},[1976,3374],{"className":3375,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3377,2006],{"className":3378},[2046],[1976,3380],{"className":3381,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3383,3385,3388,3437,3440,3443],{"className":3384},[2023],[1976,3386],{"className":3387,"style":2416},[2027],[1976,3389,3391,3394],{"className":3390},[2032],[1976,3392,2862],{"className":3393,"style":2933},[2032,2154],[1976,3395,3397],{"className":3396},[2159],[1976,3398,3400,3429],{"className":3399},[2163,2164],[1976,3401,3403,3426],{"className":3402},[2168],[1976,3404,3406],{"className":3405,"style":2287},[2172],[1976,3407,3408,3411],{"style":2948},[1976,3409],{"className":3410,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3412,3414],{"className":3413},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3415,3417,3420,3423],{"className":3416},[2032,2188],[1976,3418,2089],{"className":3419},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3421,2114],{"className":3422},[2306,2188],[1976,3424,2118],{"className":3425},[2032,2188],[1976,3427,2196],{"className":3428},[2195],[1976,3430,3432],{"className":3431},[2168],[1976,3433,3435],{"className":3434,"style":2319},[2172],[1976,3436],{},[1976,3438],{"className":3439,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3441,2912],{"className":3442},[2306],[1976,3444],{"className":3445,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3447,3449,3453],{"className":3448},[2023],[1976,3450],{"className":3451,"style":3452},[2027],"height:0.9694em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1976,3454,3456,3459],{"className":3455},[2032],[1976,3457,2862],{"className":3458,"style":2933},[2032,2154],[1976,3460,3462],{"className":3461},[2159],[1976,3463,3465,3497],{"className":3464},[2163,2164],[1976,3466,3468,3494],{"className":3467},[2168],[1976,3469,3472],{"className":3470,"style":3471},[2172],"height:0.3361em;",[1976,3473,3474,3477],{"style":2948},[1976,3475],{"className":3476,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,3478,3480],{"className":3479},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,3481,3483,3487,3491],{"className":3482},[2032,2188],[1976,3484,3290],{"className":3485,"style":3486},[2032,2154,2188],"margin-right:0.1076em;",[1976,3488,3293],{"className":3489},[3490,2188],"mpunct",[1976,3492,2089],{"className":3493},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,3495,2196],{"className":3496},[2195],[1976,3498,3500],{"className":3499},[2168],[1976,3501,3504],{"className":3502,"style":3503},[2172],"height:0.2861em;",[1976,3505],{},[1793,3507,3508],{},"中文直觉：它衡量投资者放弃无风险资产后额外承担风险获得的回报，是 CAPM 和因子模型的核心对象。",[2591,3510,3511],{"id":3511},"一价定律",[1793,3513,3514],{},"如果两个资产在所有未来状态下支付完全相同，那么它们今天必须有相同价格。",[1793,3516,3517],{},"中文直觉：否则买便宜的、卖贵的，就能构造无需净投入且未来无风险获利的套利。",[2591,3519,3520],{"id":3520},"无套利定价",[1793,3522,3523],{},"如果一项资产的现金流能由其他资产组合完全复制，那么它的价格必须等于复制组合的成本。",[1793,3525,3526],{},"中文直觉：复制组合是“金融中的实验对照组”。当两个现金流完全一样时，价格差异不是风险补偿，而是套利机会。",[1800,3528,3530],{"id":3529},"例子一只股票的收益率与风险溢价","例子：一只股票的收益率与风险溢价",[1793,3532,3533],{},"某股票今天价格为 50 元，一年后价格可能为 60 元或 45 元，且预计支付 2 元股利。无风险利率为 4%。",[1804,3535,3536,3553],{},[1807,3537,3538],{},[1810,3539,3540,3543,3547,3550],{},[1813,3541,3542],{},"状态",[1813,3544,3546],{"align":3545},"right","未来价格",[1813,3548,3549],{"align":3545},"股利",[1813,3551,3552],{"align":3545},"简单收益率",[1820,3554,3555,3692],{},[1810,3556,3557,3560,3563,3566],{},[1825,3558,3559],{},"好状态",[1825,3561,3562],{"align":3545},"60",[1825,3564,3565],{"align":3545},"2",[1825,3567,3568],{"align":3545},[1976,3569,3571,3614],{"className":3570},[1983],[1976,3572,3574],{"className":3573},[1987],[1989,3575,3576],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,3577,3578,3611],{},[1997,3579,3580,3583,3585,3587,3589,3592,3596,3599,3601,3603,3605,3608],{},[2004,3581,3582],{"stretchy":2101},"(",[2116,3584,3562],{},[2004,3586,2114],{},[2116,3588,3565],{},[2004,3590,3591],{"stretchy":2101},")",[2084,3593,3595],{"mathvariant":3594},"normal","\u002F",[2116,3597,3598],{},"50",[2004,3600,2912],{},[2116,3602,2118],{},[2004,3604,2006],{},[2116,3606,3607],{},"24",[2084,3609,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},"%",[2011,3612,3613],{"encoding":2013},"(60+2)\u002F50-1=24\\%",[1976,3615,3617,3638,3663,3681],{"className":3616,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,3618,3620,3623,3626,3629,3632,3635],{"className":3619},[2023],[1976,3621],{"className":3622,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,3624,3582],{"className":3625},[2267],[1976,3627,3562],{"className":3628},[2032],[1976,3630],{"className":3631,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3633,2114],{"className":3634},[2306],[1976,3636],{"className":3637,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3639,3641,3644,3647,3650,3654,3657,3660],{"className":3640},[2023],[1976,3642],{"className":3643,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,3645,3565],{"className":3646},[2032],[1976,3648,3591],{"className":3649},[2376],[1976,3651,3653],{"className":3652},[2032],"\u002F50",[1976,3655],{"className":3656,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3658,2912],{"className":3659},[2306],[1976,3661],{"className":3662,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3664,3666,3669,3672,3675,3678],{"className":3665},[2023],[1976,3667],{"className":3668,"style":3222},[2027],[1976,3670,2118],{"className":3671},[2032],[1976,3673],{"className":3674,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3676,2006],{"className":3677},[2046],[1976,3679],{"className":3680,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3682,3684,3688],{"className":3683},[2023],[1976,3685],{"className":3686,"style":3687},[2027],"height:0.8056em;vertical-align:-0.0556em;",[1976,3689,3691],{"className":3690},[2032],"24%",[1810,3693,3694,3697,3700,3702],{},[1825,3695,3696],{},"差状态",[1825,3698,3699],{"align":3545},"45",[1825,3701,3565],{"align":3545},[1825,3703,3704],{"align":3545},[1976,3705,3707,3746],{"className":3706},[1983],[1976,3708,3710],{"className":3709},[1987],[1989,3711,3712],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,3713,3714,3743],{},[1997,3715,3716,3718,3720,3722,3724,3726,3728,3730,3732,3734,3736,3738,3741],{},[2004,3717,3582],{"stretchy":2101},[2116,3719,3699],{},[2004,3721,2114],{},[2116,3723,3565],{},[2004,3725,3591],{"stretchy":2101},[2084,3727,3595],{"mathvariant":3594},[2116,3729,3598],{},[2004,3731,2912],{},[2116,3733,2118],{},[2004,3735,2006],{},[2004,3737,2912],{},[2116,3739,3740],{},"6",[2084,3742,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2011,3744,3745],{"encoding":2013},"(45+2)\u002F50-1=-6\\%",[1976,3747,3749,3770,3794,3812],{"className":3748,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,3750,3752,3755,3758,3761,3764,3767],{"className":3751},[2023],[1976,3753],{"className":3754,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,3756,3582],{"className":3757},[2267],[1976,3759,3699],{"className":3760},[2032],[1976,3762],{"className":3763,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3765,2114],{"className":3766},[2306],[1976,3768],{"className":3769,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3771,3773,3776,3779,3782,3785,3788,3791],{"className":3772},[2023],[1976,3774],{"className":3775,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,3777,3565],{"className":3778},[2032],[1976,3780,3591],{"className":3781},[2376],[1976,3783,3653],{"className":3784},[2032],[1976,3786],{"className":3787,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3789,2912],{"className":3790},[2306],[1976,3792],{"className":3793,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3795,3797,3800,3803,3806,3809],{"className":3796},[2023],[1976,3798],{"className":3799,"style":3222},[2027],[1976,3801,2118],{"className":3802},[2032],[1976,3804],{"className":3805,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3807,2006],{"className":3808},[2046],[1976,3810],{"className":3811,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3813,3815,3819,3822],{"className":3814},[2023],[1976,3816],{"className":3817,"style":3818},[2027],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1976,3820,2912],{"className":3821},[2032],[1976,3823,3825],{"className":3824},[2032],"6%",[1793,3827,3828],{},"若两个状态概率各为 50%，预期收益率为：",[1976,3830,3832],{"className":3831},[1979],[1976,3833,3835,3890],{"className":3834},[1983],[1976,3836,3838],{"className":3837},[1987],[1989,3839,3840],{"xmlns":1991,"display":1992},[1994,3841,3842,3887],{},[1997,3843,3844,3846,3848,3850,3852,3854,3857,3860,3862,3864,3866,3868,3870,3872,3874,3876,3878,3880,3882,3885],{},[2084,3845,2096],{},[2004,3847,2102],{"stretchy":2101},[2084,3849,2862],{},[2004,3851,2134],{"stretchy":2101},[2004,3853,2006],{},[2116,3855,3856],{},"0.5",[2004,3858,3859],{},"×",[2116,3861,3607],{},[2084,3863,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,3865,2114],{},[2116,3867,3856],{},[2004,3869,3859],{},[2004,3871,3582],{"stretchy":2101},[2004,3873,2912],{},[2116,3875,3740],{},[2084,3877,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,3879,3591],{"stretchy":2101},[2004,3881,2006],{},[2116,3883,3884],{},"9",[2084,3886,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2011,3888,3889],{"encoding":2013},"E[R]=0.5\\times24\\%+0.5\\times(-6\\%)=9\\%",[1976,3891,3893,3920,3939,3957,3975,4002],{"className":3892,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,3894,3896,3899,3902,3905,3908,3911,3914,3917],{"className":3895},[2023],[1976,3897],{"className":3898,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,3900,2096],{"className":3901,"style":2228},[2032,2154],[1976,3903,2102],{"className":3904},[2267],[1976,3906,2862],{"className":3907,"style":2933},[2032,2154],[1976,3909,2134],{"className":3910},[2376],[1976,3912],{"className":3913,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3915,2006],{"className":3916},[2046],[1976,3918],{"className":3919,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3921,3923,3927,3930,3933,3936],{"className":3922},[2023],[1976,3924],{"className":3925,"style":3926},[2027],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1976,3928,3856],{"className":3929},[2032],[1976,3931],{"className":3932,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3934,3859],{"className":3935},[2306],[1976,3937],{"className":3938,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3940,3942,3945,3948,3951,3954],{"className":3941},[2023],[1976,3943],{"className":3944,"style":3818},[2027],[1976,3946,3691],{"className":3947},[2032],[1976,3949],{"className":3950,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3952,2114],{"className":3953},[2306],[1976,3955],{"className":3956,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3958,3960,3963,3966,3969,3972],{"className":3959},[2023],[1976,3961],{"className":3962,"style":3926},[2027],[1976,3964,3856],{"className":3965},[2032],[1976,3967],{"className":3968,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3970,3859],{"className":3971},[2306],[1976,3973],{"className":3974,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,3976,3978,3981,3984,3987,3990,3993,3996,3999],{"className":3977},[2023],[1976,3979],{"className":3980,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,3982,3582],{"className":3983},[2267],[1976,3985,2912],{"className":3986},[2032],[1976,3988,3825],{"className":3989},[2032],[1976,3991,3591],{"className":3992},[2376],[1976,3994],{"className":3995,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,3997,2006],{"className":3998},[2046],[1976,4000],{"className":4001,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4003,4005,4008],{"className":4004},[2023],[1976,4006],{"className":4007,"style":3687},[2027],[1976,4009,4011],{"className":4010},[2032],"9%",[1793,4013,4014],{},"预期超额收益为：",[1976,4016,4018],{"className":4017},[1979],[1976,4019,4021,4066],{"className":4020},[1983],[1976,4022,4024],{"className":4023},[1987],[1989,4025,4026],{"xmlns":1991,"display":1992},[1994,4027,4028,4063],{},[1997,4029,4030,4032,4034,4041,4043,4045,4047,4049,4051,4054,4056,4058,4061],{},[2084,4031,2096],{},[2004,4033,2102],{"stretchy":2101},[4035,4036,4037,4039],"msup",{},[2084,4038,2862],{},[2084,4040,3265],{},[2004,4042,2134],{"stretchy":2101},[2004,4044,2006],{},[2116,4046,3884],{},[2084,4048,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,4050,2912],{},[2116,4052,4053],{},"4",[2084,4055,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,4057,2006],{},[2116,4059,4060],{},"5",[2084,4062,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2011,4064,4065],{"encoding":2013},"E[R^e]=9\\%-4\\%=5\\%",[1976,4067,4069,4122,4140,4159],{"className":4068,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,4070,4072,4075,4078,4081,4110,4113,4116,4119],{"className":4071},[2023],[1976,4073],{"className":4074,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,4076,2096],{"className":4077,"style":2228},[2032,2154],[1976,4079,2102],{"className":4080},[2267],[1976,4082,4084,4087],{"className":4083},[2032],[1976,4085,2862],{"className":4086,"style":2933},[2032,2154],[1976,4088,4090],{"className":4089},[2159],[1976,4091,4093],{"className":4092},[2163],[1976,4094,4096],{"className":4095},[2168],[1976,4097,4099],{"className":4098,"style":3327},[2172],[1976,4100,4101,4104],{"style":3351},[1976,4102],{"className":4103,"style":2181},[2180],[1976,4105,4107],{"className":4106},[2185,2186,2187,2188],[1976,4108,3265],{"className":4109},[2032,2154,2188],[1976,4111,2134],{"className":4112},[2376],[1976,4114],{"className":4115,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4117,2006],{"className":4118},[2046],[1976,4120],{"className":4121,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4123,4125,4128,4131,4134,4137],{"className":4124},[2023],[1976,4126],{"className":4127,"style":3818},[2027],[1976,4129,4011],{"className":4130},[2032],[1976,4132],{"className":4133,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4135,2912],{"className":4136},[2306],[1976,4138],{"className":4139,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4141,4143,4146,4150,4153,4156],{"className":4142},[2023],[1976,4144],{"className":4145,"style":3687},[2027],[1976,4147,4149],{"className":4148},[2032],"4%",[1976,4151],{"className":4152,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4154,2006],{"className":4155},[2046],[1976,4157],{"className":4158,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4160,4162,4165],{"className":4161},[2023],[1976,4163],{"className":4164,"style":3687},[2027],[1976,4166,4168],{"className":4167},[2032],"5%",[1793,4170,4171],{},"这里的 5% 不是“保证多赚 5%”，而是平均意义上的风险补偿。考试和实证中最容易出错的地方，是把预期超额收益误读成每个状态下都会超过无风险收益。",[1800,4173,4175],{"id":4174},"可运行例题复制组合给出唯一价格","可运行例题：复制组合给出唯一价格",[1793,4177,4178],{},"一只债券在好、坏状态都支付 1，另一只风险资产分别支付 1.4 和 0.6。目标证券支付 1.2 和 0.8，恰好可以由两只资产各持有一半复制。",[4180,4181],"pyodide",{"code64":4182,"layout":4183,"locale":7,"packages":4184,"title":4185},"aW1wb3J0IG51bXB5IGFzIG5wCgpwYXlvZmZfbWF0cml4ID0gbnAuYXJyYXkoWwogICAgWzEuMCwgMS40XSwgICMg5aW954q25oCB77ya5YC65Yi444CB6aOO6Zmp6LWE5LqnCiAgICBbMS4wLCAwLjZdLCAgIyDlnY\u002FnirbmgIEKXSkKdGFyZ2V0X3BheW9mZiA9IG5wLmFycmF5KFsxLjIsIDAuOF0pCnRyYWRlZF9wcmljZXMgPSBucC5hcnJheShbMC45NSwgMC45OF0pCgp3ZWlnaHRzID0gbnAubGluYWxnLnNvbHZlKHBheW9mZl9tYXRyaXgsIHRhcmdldF9wYXlvZmYpCnJlcGxpY2F0aW9uX3ByaWNlID0gd2VpZ2h0cyBAIHRyYWRlZF9wcmljZXMKcXVvdGVkX3ByaWNlID0gMC45OQoKcHJpbnQoIuWkjeWItuadg+mHje+8iOWAuuWIuOOAgemjjumZqei1hOS6p++8iToiLCBucC5yb3VuZCh3ZWlnaHRzLCAzKSkKcHJpbnQoZiLlpI3liLbmiJDmnKw6IHtyZXBsaWNhdGlvbl9wcmljZTouM2Z9IikKcHJpbnQoZiLnm67moIfor4HliLjmiqXku7c6IHtxdW90ZWRfcHJpY2U6LjNmfSIpCnByaW50KGYi5Y2W5Ye655uu5qCH44CB5Lmw5YWl5aSN5Yi257uE5ZCI55qE5pyf5Yid5YeA5rWB5YWlOiB7cXVvdGVkX3ByaWNlLXJlcGxpY2F0aW9uX3ByaWNlOi4zZn0iKQpwcmludCgi5Yiw5pyf5YeA546w6YeR5rWBOiIsIG5wLnJvdW5kKHBheW9mZl9tYXRyaXggQCB3ZWlnaHRzIC0gdGFyZ2V0X3BheW9mZiwgOCkp","vertical","numpy","Python：复制价格与套利缺口",[1793,4187,4188],{},"只要交易和卖空可行，0.99 的报价就高于 0.965 的复制成本。无套利给出的是相对价格约束；现实中还要检查买卖价差、融资和头寸限制是否吞掉 0.025 的价差。",[1800,4190,4191],{"id":4191},"学习顺序建议",[1804,4193,4194,4207],{},[1807,4195,4196],{},[1810,4197,4198,4201,4204],{},[1813,4199,4200],{},"小节",[1813,4202,4203],{},"先抓住的问题",[1813,4205,4206],{},"需要特别留意",[1820,4208,4209,4220,4231,4242,4253],{},[1810,4210,4211,4214,4217],{},[1825,4212,4213],{},"1.1 资产定价概述",[1825,4215,4216],{},"资产定价到底在解释什么",[1825,4218,4219],{},"价格、现金流、风险和投资者偏好之间的关系",[1810,4221,4222,4225,4228],{},[1825,4223,4224],{},"1.2 金融市场基础",[1825,4226,4227],{},"市场把哪些主体和证券连接起来",[1825,4229,4230],{},"交易机制、流动性和信息对价格形成的影响",[1810,4232,4233,4236,4239],{},[1825,4234,4235],{},"1.3 收益率与风险度量",[1825,4237,4238],{},"如何把价格变化转成可比较的收益",[1825,4240,4241],{},"简单收益率、对数收益率、波动率和协方差",[1810,4243,4244,4247,4250],{},[1825,4245,4246],{},"1.4 时间价值与贴现",[1825,4248,4249],{},"为什么同一笔钱在不同时间价值不同",[1825,4251,4252],{},"贴现率、复利频率和现值计算",[1810,4254,4255,4258,4261],{},[1825,4256,4257],{},"1.5 无套利原理",[1825,4259,4260],{},"为什么“免费午餐”会限制价格",[1825,4262,4263],{},"复制组合、套利边界和一价定律",[2583,4265,4267],{"title":4266},"练习方式","本章适合配合一个简单数据表学习：选一只股票、一个市场指数和一个无风险利率序列，手动算出收益率、超额收益、均值、方差和相关系数。这样后面读 CAPM、因子模型和回测时，概念不会停留在抽象符号上。",[1800,4269,4270],{"id":4270},"常见错误与考试陷阱",[1870,4272,4273,4280,4286,4292,4298],{},[1873,4274,4275,4279],{},[4276,4277,4278],"strong",{},"把价格变化当成收益率","：资产价格高低不能直接比较投资表现，必须转成收益率。",[1873,4281,4282,4285],{},[4276,4283,4284],{},"忘记股利或票息","：总收益率要包括现金流，不能只看资本利得。",[1873,4287,4288,4291],{},[4276,4289,4290],{},"混用简单收益率和对数收益率","：短期差别小，长期或高波动时差别明显。",[1873,4293,4294,4297],{},[4276,4295,4296],{},"把无套利当成“市场一定公平”","：无套利只排除免费午餐，不保证所有资产都被完全正确估值。",[1873,4299,4300,4303],{},[4276,4301,4302],{},"把贴现率当成固定常数","：有风险现金流的贴现率取决于现金流在哪些状态支付。",[1800,4305,4306],{"id":4306},"自测题",[1870,4308,4309,4312,4315,4318],{},[1873,4310,4311],{},"为什么资产定价既可以从“贴现现金流”出发，也可以从“预期收益率”出发？",[1873,4313,4314],{},"一个资产在好状态收益 20%，坏状态收益 -10%，两个状态概率相同，无风险收益率 3%。它的预期超额收益是多少？",[1873,4316,4317],{},"一价定律和无套利定价有什么区别？",[1873,4319,4320],{},"为什么在资产定价中，协方差往往比单个资产的方差更重要？",[1800,4322,4323],{"id":4323},"答案指引",[1870,4325,4326,4329,4558,4561],{},[1873,4327,4328],{},"价格和收益率是同一个定价问题的两种表达：给定未来现金流和贴现方式可以求价格；给定价格和未来现金流可以反推出所需收益率。",[1873,4330,4331,4332,4474,4475,4557],{},"预期收益率为 ",[1976,4333,4335,4379],{"className":4334},[1983],[1976,4336,4338],{"className":4337},[1987],[1989,4339,4340],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,4341,4342,4376],{},[1997,4343,4344,4346,4348,4351,4353,4355,4357,4359,4361,4363,4366,4368,4370,4372,4374],{},[2116,4345,3856],{},[2004,4347,3859],{},[2116,4349,4350],{},"20",[2084,4352,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,4354,2114],{},[2116,4356,3856],{},[2004,4358,3859],{},[2004,4360,3582],{"stretchy":2101},[2004,4362,2912],{},[2116,4364,4365],{},"10",[2084,4367,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,4369,3591],{"stretchy":2101},[2004,4371,2006],{},[2116,4373,4060],{},[2084,4375,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2011,4377,4378],{"encoding":2013},"0.5\\times20\\%+0.5\\times(-10\\%)=5\\%",[1976,4380,4382,4400,4419,4437,4465],{"className":4381,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,4383,4385,4388,4391,4394,4397],{"className":4384},[2023],[1976,4386],{"className":4387,"style":3926},[2027],[1976,4389,3856],{"className":4390},[2032],[1976,4392],{"className":4393,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4395,3859],{"className":4396},[2306],[1976,4398],{"className":4399,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4401,4403,4406,4410,4413,4416],{"className":4402},[2023],[1976,4404],{"className":4405,"style":3818},[2027],[1976,4407,4409],{"className":4408},[2032],"20%",[1976,4411],{"className":4412,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4414,2114],{"className":4415},[2306],[1976,4417],{"className":4418,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4420,4422,4425,4428,4431,4434],{"className":4421},[2023],[1976,4423],{"className":4424,"style":3926},[2027],[1976,4426,3856],{"className":4427},[2032],[1976,4429],{"className":4430,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4432,3859],{"className":4433},[2306],[1976,4435],{"className":4436,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4438,4440,4443,4446,4449,4453,4456,4459,4462],{"className":4439},[2023],[1976,4441],{"className":4442,"style":2221},[2027],[1976,4444,3582],{"className":4445},[2267],[1976,4447,2912],{"className":4448},[2032],[1976,4450,4452],{"className":4451},[2032],"10%",[1976,4454,3591],{"className":4455},[2376],[1976,4457],{"className":4458,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4460,2006],{"className":4461},[2046],[1976,4463],{"className":4464,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4466,4468,4471],{"className":4467},[2023],[1976,4469],{"className":4470,"style":3687},[2027],[1976,4472,4168],{"className":4473},[2032],"，预期超额收益为 ",[1976,4476,4478,4507],{"className":4477},[1983],[1976,4479,4481],{"className":4480},[1987],[1989,4482,4483],{"xmlns":1991},[1994,4484,4485,4504],{},[1997,4486,4487,4489,4491,4493,4496,4498,4500,4502],{},[2116,4488,4060],{},[2084,4490,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,4492,2912],{},[2116,4494,4495],{},"3",[2084,4497,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2004,4499,2006],{},[2116,4501,3565],{},[2084,4503,3610],{"mathvariant":3594},[2011,4505,4506],{"encoding":2013},"5\\%-3\\%=2\\%",[1976,4508,4510,4528,4547],{"className":4509,"ariaHidden":2019},[2018],[1976,4511,4513,4516,4519,4522,4525],{"className":4512},[2023],[1976,4514],{"className":4515,"style":3818},[2027],[1976,4517,4168],{"className":4518},[2032],[1976,4520],{"className":4521,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4523,2912],{"className":4524},[2306],[1976,4526],{"className":4527,"style":3136},[2041],[1976,4529,4531,4534,4538,4541,4544],{"className":4530},[2023],[1976,4532],{"className":4533,"style":3687},[2027],[1976,4535,4537],{"className":4536},[2032],"3%",[1976,4539],{"className":4540,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4542,2006],{"className":4543},[2046],[1976,4545],{"className":4546,"style":2042},[2041],[1976,4548,4550,4553],{"className":4549},[2023],[1976,4551],{"className":4552,"style":3687},[2027],[1976,4554,4556],{"className":4555},[2032],"2%","。",[1873,4559,4560],{},"一价定律比较的是完全相同现金流的两个资产；无套利定价进一步说，如果某现金流能被组合复制，其价格应等于复制成本。",[1873,4562,4563],{},"投资者关心的是资产加入整体组合后的边际风险。若一个资产在投资者最不想亏钱的状态下亏钱，即使自身方差不大，也可能要求较高风险补偿。",[1800,4565,4566],{"id":4566},"小结与过渡",[1793,4568,4569],{},"本章建立了三条主线：现金流需要贴现，风险需要补偿，价格受到无套利约束。下一章转向投资者本身：为什么同样的风险会让不同人有不同反应？效用理论会给“风险厌恶”和“风险溢价”提供微观基础。",{"title":10,"searchDepth":4571,"depth":4571,"links":4572},2,[4573,4574,4575,4576,4577,4584,4585,4586,4587,4588,4589,4590],{"id":1802,"depth":4571,"text":1802},{"id":1865,"depth":4571,"text":1865},{"id":1911,"depth":4571,"text":1911},{"id":1970,"depth":4571,"text":1971},{"id":2589,"depth":4571,"text":2589,"children":4578},[4579,4581,4582,4583],{"id":2593,"depth":4580,"text":2593},3,{"id":3231,"depth":4580,"text":3231},{"id":3511,"depth":4580,"text":3511},{"id":3520,"depth":4580,"text":3520},{"id":3529,"depth":4571,"text":3530},{"id":4174,"depth":4571,"text":4175},{"id":4191,"depth":4571,"text":4191},{"id":4270,"depth":4571,"text":4270},{"id":4306,"depth":4571,"text":4306},{"id":4323,"depth":4571,"text":4323},{"id":4566,"depth":4571,"text":4566},"资产定价的基本概念与金融市场基础","md",{"sidebar":4594},{"order":4595},1,true,{"title":1254,"description":4591},"Yb9xO5BZR19pZAxzXwIhEmsnuAIpew60-eFrRDDT1r0",[4600,4602],{"title":1248,"path":1249,"stem":1250,"description":4601,"children":-1},"面向本科生与研究生的资产定价课程，从无套利、效用与组合理论进入 CAPM、因子、SDF、衍生品、固定收益和实证检验。",{"title":1260,"path":1261,"stem":1262,"description":4603,"children":-1},"期望效用理论、风险厌恶与资产选择",1785754745830]