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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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capstone asks for one decision: ",[1797,1798,1799],"strong",{},"what reserve, reinsurance structure, and capital evidence should Harbour Mutual take to its risk committee?"," The answer must connect every number to a loss definition and information date.",[1802,1803,1805],"h2",{"id":1804},"case-file","Case file",[1793,1807,1808],{},"Harbour Mutual is a fictional UK motor insurer. Inputs are synthetic and intentionally incomplete so that judgement is visible.",[1810,1811,1813],"h3",{"id":1812},"a-existing-claims-at-31-december-2023","A. Existing claims at 31 December 2023",[1793,1815,1816],{},"Cumulative paid loss (£m):",[1818,1819,1820,1843],"table",{},[1821,1822,1823],"thead",{},[1824,1825,1826,1830,1834,1837,1840],"tr",{},[1827,1828,1829],"th",{},"AY",[1827,1831,1833],{"align":1832},"right","Dev 0",[1827,1835,1836],{"align":1832},"Dev 1",[1827,1838,1839],{"align":1832},"Dev 2",[1827,1841,1842],{"align":1832},"Dev 3",[1844,1845,1846,1864,1881,1896],"tbody",{},[1824,1847,1848,1852,1855,1858,1861],{},[1849,1850,1851],"td",{},"2020",[1849,1853,1854],{"align":1832},"100",[1849,1856,1857],{"align":1832},"180",[1849,1859,1860],{"align":1832},"240",[1849,1862,1863],{"align":1832},"280",[1824,1865,1866,1869,1872,1875,1878],{},[1849,1867,1868],{},"2021",[1849,1870,1871],{"align":1832},"120",[1849,1873,1874],{"align":1832},"220",[1849,1876,1877],{"align":1832},"300",[1849,1879,1880],{"align":1832},"—",[1824,1882,1883,1886,1889,1892,1894],{},[1849,1884,1885],{},"2022",[1849,1887,1888],{"align":1832},"140",[1849,1890,1891],{"align":1832},"260",[1849,1893,1880],{"align":1832},[1849,1895,1880],{"align":1832},[1824,1897,1898,1901,1904,1906,1908],{},[1849,1899,1900],{},"2023",[1849,1902,1903],{"align":1832},"160",[1849,1905,1880],{"align":1832},[1849,1907,1880],{"align":1832},[1849,1909,1880],{"align":1832},[1793,1911,1912],{},"Earned premium (£m) is 324, 365, 380, and 580 respectively. Pricing's expected loss ratio is 86%.",[1810,1914,1916],{"id":1915},"b-prospective-2024-portfolio","B. Prospective 2024 portfolio",[1818,1918,1919,1932],{},[1821,1920,1921],{},[1824,1922,1923,1926,1929],{},[1827,1924,1925],{},"Input",[1827,1927,1928],{"align":1832},"Central assumption",[1827,1930,1931],{"align":1832},"Stress",[1844,1933,1934,1945,1956,1967,1978],{},[1824,1935,1936,1939,1942],{},[1849,1937,1938],{},"Earned exposure",[1849,1940,1941],{"align":1832},"3,000,000 vehicle-years",[1849,1943,1944],{"align":1832},"±10%",[1824,1946,1947,1950,1953],{},[1849,1948,1949],{},"Claim frequency",[1849,1951,1952],{"align":1832},"0.10 per vehicle-year",[1849,1954,1955],{"align":1832},"0.09–0.12",[1824,1957,1958,1961,1964],{},[1849,1959,1960],{},"Mean ground-up severity",[1849,1962,1963],{"align":1832},"£5,000",[1849,1965,1966],{"align":1832},"+10% and +20%",[1824,1968,1969,1972,1975],{},[1849,1970,1971],{},"Lognormal log-SD",[1849,1973,1974],{"align":1832},"1.0",[1849,1976,1977],{"align":1832},"0.8–1.3",[1824,1979,1980,1983,1986],{},[1849,1981,1982],{},"Catastrophe state",[1849,1984,1985],{"align":1832},"not in baseline",[1849,1987,1988],{"align":1832},"student-defined, documented",[1793,1990,1991],{},"Baseline expected prospective gross loss is",[1993,1994,1997],"span",{"className":1995},[1996],"katex-display",[1993,1998,2001,2057],{"className":1999},[2000],"katex",[1993,2002,2005],{"className":2003},[2004],"katex-mathml",[2006,2007,2010],"math",{"xmlns":2008,"display":2009},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[2011,2012,2013,2052],"semantics",{},[2014,2015,2016,2020,2024,2027,2029,2034,2037,2040,2042,2045,2049],"mrow",{},[2017,2018,2019],"mn",{},"3,000,000",[2021,2022,2023],"mo",{},"×",[2017,2025,2026],{},"0.10",[2021,2028,2023],{},[2030,2031,2033],"mi",{"mathvariant":2032},"normal","£",[2017,2035,2036],{},"5,000",[2021,2038,2039],{},"=",[2030,2041,2033],{"mathvariant":2032},[2017,2043,2044],{},"1.5",[2046,2047,2048],"mtext",{},"bn",[2030,2050,2051],{"mathvariant":2032},".",[2053,2054,2056],"annotation",{"encoding":2055},"application\u002Fx-tex","3{,}000{,}000\\times0.10\\times£5{,}000=£1.5\\text{bn}.",[1993,2058,2062,2109,2128,2159],{"className":2059,"ariaHidden":2061},[2060],"katex-html","true",[1993,2063,2066,2071,2076,2084,2088,2094,2097,2102,2106],{"className":2064},[2065],"base",[1993,2067],{"className":2068,"style":2070},[2069],"strut","height:0.8389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1993,2072,2075],{"className":2073},[2074],"mord","3",[1993,2077,2079],{"className":2078},[2074],[1993,2080,2083],{"className":2081},[2082],"mpunct",",",[1993,2085,2087],{"className":2086},[2074],"000",[1993,2089,2091],{"className":2090},[2074],[1993,2092,2083],{"className":2093},[2082],[1993,2095,2087],{"className":2096},[2074],[1993,2098],{"className":2099,"style":2101},[2100],"mspace","margin-right:0.2222em;",[1993,2103,2023],{"className":2104},[2105],"mbin",[1993,2107],{"className":2108,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2110,2112,2116,2119,2122,2125],{"className":2111},[2065],[1993,2113],{"className":2114,"style":2115},[2069],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1993,2117,2026],{"className":2118},[2074],[1993,2120],{"className":2121,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2123,2023],{"className":2124},[2105],[1993,2126],{"className":2127,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2129,2131,2135,2139,2145,2148,2152,2156],{"className":2130},[2065],[1993,2132],{"className":2133,"style":2134},[2069],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1993,2136,2138],{"className":2137},[2074],"£5",[1993,2140,2142],{"className":2141},[2074],[1993,2143,2083],{"className":2144},[2082],[1993,2146,2087],{"className":2147},[2074],[1993,2149],{"className":2150,"style":2151},[2100],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[1993,2153,2039],{"className":2154},[2155],"mrel",[1993,2157],{"className":2158,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2160,2162,2166,2170,2177],{"className":2161},[2065],[1993,2163],{"className":2164,"style":2165},[2069],"height:0.6944em;",[1993,2167,2169],{"className":2168},[2074],"£1.5",[1993,2171,2174],{"className":2172},[2074,2173],"text",[1993,2175,2048],{"className":2176},[2074],[1993,2178,2051],{"className":2179},[2074],[1793,2181,2182,2183,2186],{},"This is ",[1797,2184,2185],{},"future 2024 risk",". It must not be added to the reserve for pre-2024 accidents unless the requested financial view explicitly combines them.",[1810,2188,2190],{"id":2189},"c-treaty-candidates","C. Treaty candidates",[2192,2193,2194,2198,2201,2204],"ol",{},[2195,2196,2197],"li",{},"no reinsurance;",[2195,2199,2200],{},"40% quota share;",[2195,2202,2203],{},"£20,000 xs £20,000 per loss;",[2195,2205,2206],{},"one student-designed occurrence or aggregate layer with complete wording assumptions.",[1793,2208,2209],{},"Market premium is deliberately absent. State the break-even ceded loss first, then identify what quotation or pricing assumptions are needed for a recommendation.",[1802,2211,2213],{"id":2212},"task-1-reserve-past-events","Task 1 — Reserve past events",[1793,2215,2216],{},"Reproduce and explain:",[1818,2218,2219,2229],{},[1821,2220,2221],{},[1824,2222,2223,2226],{},[1827,2224,2225],{},"Method",[1827,2227,2228],{"align":1832},"Central reserve indication",[1844,2230,2231,2239,2247],{},[1824,2232,2233,2236],{},[1849,2234,2235],{},"Chain ladder",[1849,2237,2238],{"align":1832},"£501.5m",[1824,2240,2241,2244],{},[1849,2242,2243],{},"Bornhuetter–Ferguson",[1849,2245,2246],{"align":1832},"about £490.2m",[1824,2248,2249,2252],{},[1849,2250,2251],{},"Frequency–severity illustration",[1849,2253,2254],{"align":1832},"about £499.7m",[1793,2256,2257],{},"Then:",[2192,2259,2260,2263,2266,2269,2272],{},[2195,2261,2262],{},"validate the data contract;",[2195,2264,2265],{},"show factor\u002Fprior selections and one sensitivity each;",[2195,2267,2268],{},"backtest at least one historical diagonal;",[2195,2270,2271],{},"select a central estimate or range;",[2195,2273,2274],{},"distinguish process, parameter, model, and data uncertainty.",[1793,2276,2277],{},"The selected answer need not equal any single method, but the reconciliation must be numerical.",[1802,2279,2281],{"id":2280},"task-2-model-prospective-claims","Task 2 — Model prospective claims",[1793,2283,2284],{},"Specify:",[1993,2286,2288],{"className":2287},[1996],[1993,2289,2291,2365],{"className":2290},[2000],[1993,2292,2294],{"className":2293},[2004],[2006,2295,2296],{"xmlns":2008,"display":2009},[2011,2297,2298,2362],{},[2014,2299,2300,2303,2306,2309,2311,2314,2316,2319,2322,2324,2326,2328,2330,2333,2335,2353,2360],{},[2030,2301,2302],{},"N",[2021,2304,2305],{},"∣",[2030,2307,2308],{},"e",[2021,2310,2083],{"separator":2061},[2030,2312,2313],{},"Z",[2021,2315,2083],{"separator":2061},[2100,2317],{"width":2318},"2em",[2030,2320,2321],{},"X",[2021,2323,2305],{},[2030,2325,2313],{},[2021,2327,2083],{"separator":2061},[2100,2329],{"width":2318},[2030,2331,2332],{},"S",[2021,2334,2039],{},[2336,2337,2338,2341,2351],"munderover",{},[2021,2339,2340],{},"∑",[2014,2342,2343,2346,2348],{},[2030,2344,2345],{},"i",[2021,2347,2039],{},[2017,2349,2350],{},"1",[2030,2352,2302],{},[2354,2355,2356,2358],"msub",{},[2030,2357,2321],{},[2030,2359,2345],{},[2030,2361,2051],{"mathvariant":2032},[2053,2363,2364],{"encoding":2055},"N\\mid e,Z,\n\\qquad\nX\\mid Z,\n\\qquad\nS=\\sum_{i=1}^{N}X_i.",[1993,2366,2368,2389,2432,2464],{"className":2367,"ariaHidden":2061},[2060],[1993,2369,2371,2375,2380,2383,2386],{"className":2370},[2065],[1993,2372],{"className":2373,"style":2374},[2069],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1993,2376,2302],{"className":2377,"style":2379},[2074,2378],"mathnormal","margin-right:0.109em;",[1993,2381],{"className":2382,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2384,2305],{"className":2385},[2155],[1993,2387],{"className":2388,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2390,2392,2395,2398,2401,2405,2409,2412,2416,2419,2423,2426,2429],{"className":2391},[2065],[1993,2393],{"className":2394,"style":2374},[2069],[1993,2396,2308],{"className":2397},[2074,2378],[1993,2399,2083],{"className":2400},[2082],[1993,2402],{"className":2403,"style":2404},[2100],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[1993,2406,2313],{"className":2407,"style":2408},[2074,2378],"margin-right:0.0715em;",[1993,2410,2083],{"className":2411},[2082],[1993,2413],{"className":2414,"style":2415},[2100],"margin-right:2em;",[1993,2417],{"className":2418,"style":2404},[2100],[1993,2420,2321],{"className":2421,"style":2422},[2074,2378],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[1993,2424],{"className":2425,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2427,2305],{"className":2428},[2155],[1993,2430],{"className":2431,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2433,2435,2439,2442,2445,2448,2451,2455,2458,2461],{"className":2434},[2065],[1993,2436],{"className":2437,"style":2438},[2069],"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1993,2440,2313],{"className":2441,"style":2408},[2074,2378],[1993,2443,2083],{"className":2444},[2082],[1993,2446],{"className":2447,"style":2415},[2100],[1993,2449],{"className":2450,"style":2404},[2100],[1993,2452,2332],{"className":2453,"style":2454},[2074,2378],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[1993,2456],{"className":2457,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2459,2039],{"className":2460},[2155],[1993,2462],{"className":2463,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2465,2467,2471,2559,2562,2607],{"className":2466},[2065],[1993,2468],{"className":2469,"style":2470},[2069],"height:3.106em;vertical-align:-1.2777em;",[1993,2472,2476],{"className":2473},[2474,2475],"mop","op-limits",[1993,2477,2481,2550],{"className":2478},[2479,2480],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1993,2482,2485,2545],{"className":2483},[2484],"vlist-r",[1993,2486,2490,2517,2530],{"className":2487,"style":2489},[2488],"vlist","height:1.8283em;",[1993,2491,2493,2498],{"style":2492},"top:-1.8723em;margin-left:0em;",[1993,2494],{"className":2495,"style":2497},[2496],"pstrut","height:3.05em;",[1993,2499,2505],{"className":2500},[2501,2502,2503,2504],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1993,2506,2508,2511,2514],{"className":2507},[2074,2504],[1993,2509,2345],{"className":2510},[2074,2378,2504],[1993,2512,2039],{"className":2513},[2155,2504],[1993,2515,2350],{"className":2516},[2074,2504],[1993,2518,2520,2523],{"style":2519},"top:-3.05em;",[1993,2521],{"className":2522,"style":2497},[2496],[1993,2524,2525],{},[1993,2526,2340],{"className":2527},[2474,2528,2529],"op-symbol","large-op",[1993,2531,2533,2536],{"style":2532},"top:-4.3em;margin-left:0em;",[1993,2534],{"className":2535,"style":2497},[2496],[1993,2537,2539],{"className":2538},[2501,2502,2503,2504],[1993,2540,2542],{"className":2541},[2074,2504],[1993,2543,2302],{"className":2544,"style":2379},[2074,2378,2504],[1993,2546,2549],{"className":2547},[2548],"vlist-s","​",[1993,2551,2553],{"className":2552},[2484],[1993,2554,2557],{"className":2555,"style":2556},[2488],"height:1.2777em;",[1993,2558],{},[1993,2560],{"className":2561,"style":2404},[2100],[1993,2563,2565,2568],{"className":2564},[2074],[1993,2566,2321],{"className":2567,"style":2422},[2074,2378],[1993,2569,2572],{"className":2570},[2571],"msupsub",[1993,2573,2575,2598],{"className":2574},[2479,2480],[1993,2576,2578,2595],{"className":2577},[2484],[1993,2579,2582],{"className":2580,"style":2581},[2488],"height:0.3117em;",[1993,2583,2585,2589],{"style":2584},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0785em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1993,2586],{"className":2587,"style":2588},[2496],"height:2.7em;",[1993,2590,2592],{"className":2591},[2501,2502,2503,2504],[1993,2593,2345],{"className":2594},[2074,2378,2504],[1993,2596,2549],{"className":2597},[2548],[1993,2599,2601],{"className":2600},[2484],[1993,2602,2605],{"className":2603,"style":2604},[2488],"height:0.15em;",[1993,2606],{},[1993,2608,2051],{"className":2609},[2074],[1793,2611,2612],{},"Minimum analysis:",[2614,2615,2616,2619,2622,2625,2628],"ul",{},[2195,2617,2618],{},"justify Poisson or negative-binomial frequency using exposure and dispersion;",[2195,2620,2621],{},"compare at least two same-mean severity families in the tail;",[2195,2623,2624],{},"state deductible, limit, inflation, and event treatment;",[2195,2626,2627],{},"use a chronological or scenario holdout concept;",[2195,2629,2630],{},"report expected loss and at least one 99% tail measure.",[1810,2632,2634],{"id":2633},"short-explanation-standard","Short explanation standard",[1793,2636,2637],{},"Weak: “Lognormal fits insurance claims.”",[1793,2639,2640],{},"Strong: “Gamma and lognormal models share the £5,000 mean, but the lognormal's 99% quantile is materially higher; because the decision prices a £20,000 attachment, survival calibration around £20,000–£40,000 receives more weight than histogram fit below £5,000.”",[1802,2642,2644],{"id":2643},"task-3-apply-treaties-exactly","Task 3 — Apply treaties exactly",[1793,2646,2647],{},"Write every candidate as a function before simulation:",[1993,2649,2651],{"className":2650},[1996],[1993,2652,2654,2697],{"className":2653},[2000],[1993,2655,2657],{"className":2656},[2004],[2006,2658,2659],{"xmlns":2008,"display":2009},[2011,2660,2661,2694],{},[2014,2662,2663,2675,2679,2682,2685,2687,2690,2692],{},[2354,2664,2665,2668],{},[2030,2666,2667],{},"g",[2014,2669,2670,2673],{},[2030,2671,2672],{},"Q",[2030,2674,2332],{},[2021,2676,2678],{"stretchy":2677},"false","(",[2030,2680,2681],{},"x",[2021,2683,2684],{"stretchy":2677},")",[2021,2686,2039],{},[2017,2688,2689],{},"0.6",[2030,2691,2681],{},[2021,2693,2083],{"separator":2061},[2053,2695,2696],{"encoding":2055},"g_{QS}(x)=0.6x,",[1993,2698,2700,2775],{"className":2699,"ariaHidden":2061},[2060],[1993,2701,2703,2707,2755,2759,2762,2766,2769,2772],{"className":2702},[2065],[1993,2704],{"className":2705,"style":2706},[2069],"height:1.0361em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1993,2708,2710,2714],{"className":2709},[2074],[1993,2711,2667],{"className":2712,"style":2713},[2074,2378],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1993,2715,2717],{"className":2716},[2571],[1993,2718,2720,2746],{"className":2719},[2479,2480],[1993,2721,2723,2743],{"className":2722},[2484],[1993,2724,2727],{"className":2725,"style":2726},[2488],"height:0.3283em;",[1993,2728,2730,2733],{"style":2729},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1993,2731],{"className":2732,"style":2588},[2496],[1993,2734,2736],{"className":2735},[2501,2502,2503,2504],[1993,2737,2739],{"className":2738},[2074,2504],[1993,2740,2742],{"className":2741,"style":2454},[2074,2378,2504],"QS",[1993,2744,2549],{"className":2745},[2548],[1993,2747,2749],{"className":2748},[2484],[1993,2750,2753],{"className":2751,"style":2752},[2488],"height:0.2861em;",[1993,2754],{},[1993,2756,2678],{"className":2757},[2758],"mopen",[1993,2760,2681],{"className":2761},[2074,2378],[1993,2763,2684],{"className":2764},[2765],"mclose",[1993,2767],{"className":2768,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2770,2039],{"className":2771},[2155],[1993,2773],{"className":2774,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2776,2778,2781,2784,2787],{"className":2777},[2065],[1993,2779],{"className":2780,"style":2070},[2069],[1993,2782,2689],{"className":2783},[2074],[1993,2785,2681],{"className":2786},[2074,2378],[1993,2788,2083],{"className":2789},[2082],[1993,2791,2793],{"className":2792},[1996],[1993,2794,2796,2866],{"className":2795},[2000],[1993,2797,2799],{"className":2798},[2004],[2006,2800,2801],{"xmlns":2008,"display":2009},[2011,2802,2803,2863],{},[2014,2804,2805,2816,2818,2820,2822,2824,2826,2829,2832,2835,2838,2840,2842,2844,2847,2854,2856,2858,2861],{},[2354,2806,2807,2809],{},[2030,2808,2667],{},[2014,2810,2811,2813],{},[2030,2812,2321],{},[2030,2814,2815],{},"L",[2021,2817,2678],{"stretchy":2677},[2030,2819,2681],{},[2021,2821,2684],{"stretchy":2677},[2021,2823,2039],{},[2030,2825,2681],{},[2021,2827,2828],{},"−",[2030,2830,2831],{},"min",[2021,2833,2834],{},"⁡",[2021,2836,2837],{"stretchy":2677},"{",[2021,2839,2678],{"stretchy":2677},[2030,2841,2681],{},[2021,2843,2828],{},[2017,2845,2846],{},"20,000",[2354,2848,2849,2851],{},[2021,2850,2684],{"stretchy":2677},[2021,2852,2853],{},"+",[2021,2855,2083],{"separator":2061},[2017,2857,2846],{},[2021,2859,2860],{"stretchy":2677},"}",[2030,2862,2051],{"mathvariant":2032},[2053,2864,2865],{"encoding":2055},"g_{XL}(x)=x-\\min\\{(x-20{,}000)_+,20{,}000\\}.",[1993,2867,2869,2939,2958,2983],{"className":2868,"ariaHidden":2061},[2060],[1993,2870,2872,2875,2921,2924,2927,2930,2933,2936],{"className":2871},[2065],[1993,2873],{"className":2874,"style":2374},[2069],[1993,2876,2878,2881],{"className":2877},[2074],[1993,2879,2667],{"className":2880,"style":2713},[2074,2378],[1993,2882,2884],{"className":2883},[2571],[1993,2885,2887,2913],{"className":2886},[2479,2480],[1993,2888,2890,2910],{"className":2889},[2484],[1993,2891,2893],{"className":2892,"style":2726},[2488],[1993,2894,2895,2898],{"style":2729},[1993,2896],{"className":2897,"style":2588},[2496],[1993,2899,2901],{"className":2900},[2501,2502,2503,2504],[1993,2902,2904,2907],{"className":2903},[2074,2504],[1993,2905,2321],{"className":2906,"style":2422},[2074,2378,2504],[1993,2908,2815],{"className":2909},[2074,2378,2504],[1993,2911,2549],{"className":2912},[2548],[1993,2914,2916],{"className":2915},[2484],[1993,2917,2919],{"className":2918,"style":2604},[2488],[1993,2920],{},[1993,2922,2678],{"className":2923},[2758],[1993,2925,2681],{"className":2926},[2074,2378],[1993,2928,2684],{"className":2929},[2765],[1993,2931],{"className":2932,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2934,2039],{"className":2935},[2155],[1993,2937],{"className":2938,"style":2151},[2100],[1993,2940,2942,2946,2949,2952,2955],{"className":2941},[2065],[1993,2943],{"className":2944,"style":2945},[2069],"height:0.6667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1993,2947,2681],{"className":2948},[2074,2378],[1993,2950],{"className":2951,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2953,2828],{"className":2954},[2105],[1993,2956],{"className":2957,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2959,2961,2964,2967,2971,2974,2977,2980],{"className":2960},[2065],[1993,2962],{"className":2963,"style":2374},[2069],[1993,2965,2831],{"className":2966},[2474],[1993,2968,2970],{"className":2969},[2758],"{(",[1993,2972,2681],{"className":2973},[2074,2378],[1993,2975],{"className":2976,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2978,2828],{"className":2979},[2105],[1993,2981],{"className":2982,"style":2101},[2100],[1993,2984,2986,2989,2993,2999,3002,3045,3048,3051,3054,3060,3063,3066],{"className":2985},[2065],[1993,2987],{"className":2988,"style":2374},[2069],[1993,2990,2992],{"className":2991},[2074],"20",[1993,2994,2996],{"className":2995},[2074],[1993,2997,2083],{"className":2998},[2082],[1993,3000,2087],{"className":3001},[2074],[1993,3003,3005,3008],{"className":3004},[2765],[1993,3006,2684],{"className":3007},[2765],[1993,3009,3011],{"className":3010},[2571],[1993,3012,3014,3036],{"className":3013},[2479,2480],[1993,3015,3017,3033],{"className":3016},[2484],[1993,3018,3021],{"className":3019,"style":3020},[2488],"height:0.2583em;",[1993,3022,3024,3027],{"style":3023},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1993,3025],{"className":3026,"style":2588},[2496],[1993,3028,3030],{"className":3029},[2501,2502,2503,2504],[1993,3031,2853],{"className":3032},[2105,2504],[1993,3034,2549],{"className":3035},[2548],[1993,3037,3039],{"className":3038},[2484],[1993,3040,3043],{"className":3041,"style":3042},[2488],"height:0.2083em;",[1993,3044],{},[1993,3046,2083],{"className":3047},[2082],[1993,3049],{"className":3050,"style":2404},[2100],[1993,3052,2992],{"className":3053},[2074],[1993,3055,3057],{"className":3056},[2074],[1993,3058,2083],{"className":3059},[2082],[1993,3061,2087],{"className":3062},[2074],[1993,3064,2860],{"className":3065},[2765],[1993,3067,2051],{"className":3068},[2074],[1793,3070,3071],{},"For the designed treaty, state:",[2614,3073,3074,3077,3080,3083,3086],{},[2195,3075,3076],{},"per-risk, per-occurrence, or annual-aggregate subject loss;",[2195,3078,3079],{},"attachment, limit, and annual aggregate limit;",[2195,3081,3082],{},"reinstatements and premium treatment;",[2195,3084,3085],{},"gross\u002Fnet, currency, indexation, and exclusions;",[2195,3087,3088],{},"recovery timing and counterparty assumption.",[1793,3090,3091],{},"Compare gross and net mean, SD, VaR, TVaR, attachment, and exhaustion. Do not rank treaties until reinsurance economics are added.",[1802,3093,3095],{"id":3094},"task-4-challenge-diversification","Task 4 — Challenge diversification",[1793,3097,3098],{},"Run at least three scenarios:",[2192,3100,3101,3104,3107],{},[2195,3102,3103],{},"baseline independent frequency\u002Fseverity;",[2195,3105,3106],{},"same marginals with a shared catastrophe state;",[2195,3108,3109],{},"claims inflation plus a fixed nominal layer.",[1793,3111,3112],{},"Explain which movement comes from:",[2614,3114,3115,3118,3121,3124],{},[2195,3116,3117],{},"changed marginal frequency\u002Fseverity;",[2195,3119,3120],{},"changed dependence;",[2195,3122,3123],{},"changed contract response;",[2195,3125,3126],{},"Monte Carlo noise.",[1793,3128,3129],{},"Use common random numbers for treaty comparison and show simulation stability at increasing sample sizes.",[1802,3131,3133],{"id":3132},"task-5-put-the-annual-model-on-a-path","Task 5 — Put the annual model on a path",[1793,3135,3136],{},"Choose initial capital and a net premium process. Estimate finite-time ruin over one and five years, then compare with any available classical benchmark.",[1793,3138,3139],{},"The conclusion must state why the output is not automatically:",[2614,3141,3142,3145,3148,3151],{},[2195,3143,3144],{},"IFRS 17 fulfilment cash flow or risk adjustment;",[2195,3146,3147],{},"Solvency UK SCR;",[2195,3149,3150],{},"a complete internal model;",[2195,3152,3153],{},"a liquidity assessment.",[1802,3155,3157],{"id":3156},"required-submission","Required submission",[1818,3159,3160,3173],{},[1821,3161,3162],{},[1824,3163,3164,3167,3170],{},[1827,3165,3166],{},"Item",[1827,3168,3169],{"align":1832},"Maximum length",[1827,3171,3172],{},"Purpose",[1844,3174,3175,3186,3197,3208],{},[1824,3176,3177,3180,3183],{},[1849,3178,3179],{},"Risk-committee memo",[1849,3181,3182],{"align":1832},"1,200 words",[1849,3184,3185],{},"decision, evidence, conditions, and limitations",[1824,3187,3188,3191,3194],{},[1849,3189,3190],{},"Reproducible technical appendix",[1849,3192,3193],{"align":1832},"8 pages plus code",[1849,3195,3196],{},"definitions, calculations, validation, sensitivity",[1824,3198,3199,3202,3205],{},[1849,3200,3201],{},"Model record",[1849,3203,3204],{"align":1832},"1 page",[1849,3206,3207],{},"data, assumptions, versions, owner, review date",[1824,3209,3210,3213,3216],{},[1849,3211,3212],{},"Exhibit pack",[1849,3214,3215],{"align":1832},"4 figures\u002Ftables",[1849,3217,3218],{},"reserve reconciliation, model tail, treaty comparison, surplus path",[1793,3220,3221,3222,3225],{},"Concise writing is assessed through ",[1797,3223,3224],{},"evidence density",", not omission. Every exhibit must state units, information date, gross\u002Fnet basis, and source.",[1802,3227,3229],{"id":3228},"assessment-rubric","Assessment rubric",[1818,3231,3232,3245],{},[1821,3233,3234],{},[1824,3235,3236,3239,3242],{},[1827,3237,3238],{},"Criterion",[1827,3240,3241],{"align":1832},"Weight",[1827,3243,3244],{},"Excellent evidence",[1844,3246,3247,3258,3269,3279,3289,3299],{},[1824,3248,3249,3252,3255],{},[1849,3250,3251],{},"Data contract and reproducibility",[1849,3253,3254],{"align":1832},"15%",[1849,3256,3257],{},"another analyst can reconstruct every input and transformation",[1824,3259,3260,3263,3266],{},[1849,3261,3262],{},"Reserving reasoning",[1849,3264,3265],{"align":1832},"20%",[1849,3267,3268],{},"correct calculations, backtest, alternatives, and judgement",[1824,3270,3271,3274,3276],{},[1849,3272,3273],{},"Frequency\u002Fseverity model",[1849,3275,3265],{"align":1832},[1849,3277,3278],{},"observation mechanism, tail validation, and uncertainty are explicit",[1824,3280,3281,3284,3286],{},[1849,3282,3283],{},"Treaty implementation",[1849,3285,3254],{"align":1832},[1849,3287,3288],{},"contract unit, layer, exhaustion, and economics are correct",[1824,3290,3291,3294,3296],{},[1849,3292,3293],{},"Aggregate\u002Ftail\u002Fruin analysis",[1849,3295,3265],{"align":1832},[1849,3297,3298],{},"analytic checks, dependence, Monte Carlo error, and horizon are coherent",[1824,3300,3301,3304,3307],{},[1849,3302,3303],{},"Communication and boundaries",[1849,3305,3306],{"align":1832},"10%",[1849,3308,3309],{},"recommendation is brief, decision-relevant, and does not overclaim",[1802,3311,3313],{"id":3312},"evidence-desk-current-material","Evidence desk: current material",[1793,3315,3316],{},"Use current sources to challenge the model, not to import unexamined parameters:",[1818,3318,3319,3332],{},[1821,3320,3321],{},[1824,3322,3323,3326,3329],{},[1827,3324,3325],{},"Source",[1827,3327,3328],{},"Question it can inform",[1827,3330,3331],{},"What it cannot establish alone",[1844,3333,3334,3345,3356,3367,3378],{},[1824,3335,3336,3339,3342],{},[1849,3337,3338],{},"CAS Schedule P data",[1849,3340,3341],{},"real triangle structure and method reproduction",[1849,3343,3344],{},"UK motor development pattern",[1824,3346,3347,3350,3353],{},[1849,3348,3349],{},"ABI 2025 motor release",[1849,3351,3352],{},"current payout context and data-comparability warning",[1849,3354,3355],{},"Harbour Mutual frequency\u002Fseverity",[1824,3357,3358,3361,3364],{},[1849,3359,3360],{},"Swiss Re 2025 catastrophe results",[1849,3362,3363],{},"peril mix and dependence scenarios",[1849,3365,3366],{},"insurer-specific event distribution",[1824,3368,3369,3372,3375],{},[1849,3370,3371],{},"PRA Solvency UK material",[1849,3373,3374],{},"current regulatory boundary",[1849,3376,3377],{},"adequacy of this classroom model",[1824,3379,3380,3383,3386],{},[1849,3381,3382],{},"recent individual-claim papers",[1849,3384,3385],{},"alternative reserving architecture",[1849,3387,3388],{},"established universal best practice",[1802,3390,3392],{"id":3391},"undergraduate-and-postgraduate-routes","Undergraduate and postgraduate routes",[2614,3394,3395,3401],{},[2195,3396,3397,3400],{},[1797,3398,3399],{},"Undergraduate:"," deterministic reserving, two severity models, simulation with analytical moment checks, and clearly bounded recommendation.",[2195,3402,3403,3406],{},[1797,3404,3405],{},"Postgraduate:"," stochastic reserve uncertainty, censored\u002Ftruncated likelihood, tail threshold sensitivity, common-shock dependence, and parameter\u002Fmodel uncertainty propagated into net capital.",[1793,3408,3409],{},"Both routes must be transparent and reproducible. Complexity earns credit only when it changes the decision or the confidence placed in it.",[1802,3411,3413],{"id":3412},"final-oral-defence-five-questions","Final oral defence: five questions",[2192,3415,3416,3419,3422,3425,3428],{},[2195,3417,3418],{},"Which single assumption has the largest decision impact, and how do you know?",[2195,3420,3421],{},"What new data would most reduce uncertainty?",[2195,3423,3424],{},"Which result is directly observed, estimated, simulated, or externally sourced?",[2195,3426,3427],{},"Under what scenario does your treaty recommendation reverse?",[2195,3429,3430,3431,3434],{},"What claim are you deliberately ",[1797,3432,3433],{},"not"," making?",[1802,3436,3438],{"id":3437},"core-sources","Core sources",[2614,3440,3441,3450,3457,3464],{},[2195,3442,3443],{},[3444,3445,3449],"a",{"href":3446,"rel":3447},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.casact.org\u002Fpublications-research\u002Fresearch\u002Fdownloadable-programs-spreadsheets-and-workbooks",[3448],"nofollow","CAS downloadable reserving datasets",[2195,3451,3452],{},[3444,3453,3456],{"href":3454,"rel":3455},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.abi.org.uk\u002Fnews\u002Fnews-articles\u002F2026\u002F2\u002F11.9-billion-paid-out-in-2025-to-support-motorists-across-2.5-million-claims\u002F",[3448],"ABI — 2025 motor claim payouts and comparability note",[2195,3458,3459],{},[3444,3460,3463],{"href":3461,"rel":3462},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.swissre.com\u002Fpress-release\u002FWildfires-storms-floods-contribute-to-record-92-of-global-insured-losses-in-2025-says-Swiss-Re-Institute\u002F7b39b1a5-b878-4a55-a5ff-bf5aa561a675",[3448],"Swiss Re Institute — natural catastrophes in 2025",[2195,3465,3466],{},[3444,3467,3470],{"href":3468,"rel":3469},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.bankofengland.co.uk\u002Fprudential-regulation\u002Fregulatory-reporting\u002Fregulatory-reporting-insurance-sector",[3448],"Bank of England — Solvency UK insurance-sector reporting",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3472,"depth":3472,"links":3473},2,[3474,3480,3481,3484,3485,3486,3487,3488,3489,3490,3491,3492],{"id":1804,"depth":3472,"text":1805,"children":3475},[3476,3478,3479],{"id":1812,"depth":3477,"text":1813},3,{"id":1915,"depth":3477,"text":1916},{"id":2189,"depth":3477,"text":2190},{"id":2212,"depth":3472,"text":2213},{"id":2280,"depth":3472,"text":2281,"children":3482},[3483],{"id":2633,"depth":3477,"text":2634},{"id":2643,"depth":3472,"text":2644},{"id":3094,"depth":3472,"text":3095},{"id":3132,"depth":3472,"text":3133},{"id":3156,"depth":3472,"text":3157},{"id":3228,"depth":3472,"text":3229},{"id":3312,"depth":3472,"text":3313},{"id":3391,"depth":3472,"text":3392},{"id":3412,"depth":3472,"text":3413},{"id":3437,"depth":3472,"text":3438},"Integrate reserving, frequency, severity, reinsurance, aggregate capital, and ruin in one auditable recommendation.","md",{"sidebar":3496},{"order":3497},0,true,{"title":938,"description":3493},"MJeIpETH4ieatmnixV8ATR7UZU52pHwtIDddUQwbe8s",[3502,3504],{"title":934,"path":935,"stem":936,"description":3503,"children":-1},"Simulate claim arrival times, estimate confidence intervals, and compare gross with economically charged reinsurance.",{"title":949,"path":950,"stem":951,"description":3505,"children":-1},"A matrix-first course in covariance-stationary processes, ARMA equations, linear prediction, likelihood, state space, and spectra.",1785754737387]