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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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III","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[1552],{"title":1548,"path":1549,"stem":1550},{"title":1554,"path":1555,"stem":1556,"children":1557},"消费者理论与分析基础","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[1558],{"title":1554,"path":1555,"stem":1556},{"title":1560,"path":1561,"stem":1562,"children":1563},"比较静态分析与福利测度","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[1564],{"title":1560,"path":1561,"stem":1562},{"title":1566,"path":1567,"stem":1568,"children":1569},"不确定性下的决策","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[1570],{"title":1566,"path":1567,"stem":1568},{"title":1572,"path":1573,"stem":1574,"children":1575},"一般均衡与福利经济学","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[1576],{"title":1572,"path":1573,"stem":1574},{"title":1578,"path":1579,"stem":1580,"children":1581},"博弈论：静态与动态博弈","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[1582],{"title":1578,"path":1579,"stem":1580},{"title":1584,"path":1585,"stem":1586,"children":1587},"寡头垄断与策略性市场行为","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[1588],{"title":1584,"path":1585,"stem":1586},{"title":1590,"path":1591,"stem":1592,"children":1593},"信息经济学：逆向选择与道德风险","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[1594],{"title":1590,"path":1591,"stem":1592},{"title":1596,"path":1597,"stem":1598,"children":1599},"机制设计与拍卖理论","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[1600],{"title":1596,"path":1597,"stem":1598},{"title":1602,"path":1603,"stem":1604,"children":1605},"行为与实验微观经济学","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[1606],{"title":1602,"path":1603,"stem":1604},{"title":1608,"path":1609,"stem":1610,"children":1611},"外部性、公共物品与机制","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[1612],{"title":1608,"path":1609,"stem":1610},{"title":1614,"path":1615,"stem":1616,"children":1617},"市场设计与匹配理论","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[1618],{"title":1614,"path":1615,"stem":1616},{"title":1620,"path":1621,"stem":1622,"children":1623},"第十二章：微观经济学：回顾与前沿应用","\u002Fzh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","zh\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[1624],{"title":1620,"path":1621,"stem":1622},{"title":799,"path":1626,"stem":1627,"children":1628,"page":249},"\u002Fzh\u002Fplayground","zh\u002Fplayground",[1629],{"title":1630,"path":1631,"stem":1632},"Chart.js 可视化","\u002Fzh\u002Fplayground\u002F05-chartjs","zh\u002Fplayground\u002F05-chartjs",{"title":1634,"path":1635,"stem":1636,"children":1637},"概率论与数理统计","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002Findex",[1638,1639,1645,1680,1727],{"title":1634,"path":1635,"stem":1636},{"title":1640,"path":1641,"stem":1642,"children":1643},"第零章：概率统计的对象与学习方法","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F00-intro","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[1644],{"title":1640,"path":1641,"stem":1642},{"title":1646,"path":1647,"stem":1648,"children":1649,"page":249},"01 Probability","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability",[1650,1656,1662,1668,1674],{"title":1651,"path":1652,"stem":1653,"children":1654},"第一章：概率论基础","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F01-prob-theory","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F01-prob-theory\u002Findex",[1655],{"title":1651,"path":1652,"stem":1653},{"title":1657,"path":1658,"stem":1659,"children":1660},"第二章：随机变量与分布","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F02-random-variables","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F02-random-variables\u002Findex",[1661],{"title":1657,"path":1658,"stem":1659},{"title":1663,"path":1664,"stem":1665,"children":1666},"第三章：期望、方差与条件矩","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F03-moment","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F03-moment\u002Findex",[1667],{"title":1663,"path":1664,"stem":1665},{"title":1669,"path":1670,"stem":1671,"children":1672},"第四章：常见分布族与建模机制","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F04-families","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F04-families\u002Findex",[1673],{"title":1669,"path":1670,"stem":1671},{"title":1675,"path":1676,"stem":1677,"children":1678},"第五章：收敛与渐近理论","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F05-asymptotics","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F01-probability\u002F05-asymptotics\u002Findex",[1679],{"title":1675,"path":1676,"stem":1677},{"title":1681,"path":1682,"stem":1683,"children":1684,"page":249},"02 Statistics","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics",[1685,1691,1697,1703,1709,1715,1721],{"title":1686,"path":1687,"stem":1688,"children":1689},"第六章：抽样分布","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F01-sampling","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F01-sampling\u002Findex",[1690],{"title":1686,"path":1687,"stem":1688},{"title":1692,"path":1693,"stem":1694,"children":1695},"第七章：区间估计","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F02-interval-estimation","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F02-interval-estimation\u002Findex",[1696],{"title":1692,"path":1693,"stem":1694},{"title":1698,"path":1699,"stem":1700,"children":1701},"第八章：点估计理论","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F03-point-estimation","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F03-point-estimation\u002Findex",[1702],{"title":1698,"path":1699,"stem":1700},{"title":1704,"path":1705,"stem":1706,"children":1707},"第九章：点估计方法","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F04-pe-method","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F04-pe-method\u002Findex",[1708],{"title":1704,"path":1705,"stem":1706},{"title":1710,"path":1711,"stem":1712,"children":1713},"第十章：假设检验原理","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F05-hypothesis","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F05-hypothesis\u002Findex",[1714],{"title":1710,"path":1711,"stem":1712},{"title":1716,"path":1717,"stem":1718,"children":1719},"第十一章：常用检验方法与选择","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F06-hypothesis-method","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F06-hypothesis-method\u002Findex",[1720],{"title":1716,"path":1717,"stem":1718},{"title":1722,"path":1723,"stem":1724,"children":1725},"第十二章：Bootstrap 与重抽样","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F07-bootstrap","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F07-bootstrap\u002Findex",[1726],{"title":1722,"path":1723,"stem":1724},{"title":1728,"path":1729,"stem":1730},"第十三章：前沿文献与现代统计案例（2023—2026）","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F03-frontier-literature-2026","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F03-frontier-literature-2026",{"title":1732,"path":1733,"stem":1734,"children":1735,"page":249},"Quant","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant","zh\u002Fquant",[1736,1742,1746,1750,1754,1758,1762,1766,1770,1774,1778],{"title":1737,"path":1738,"stem":1739,"children":1740},"量化投资——从可检验信号到可执行组合","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F00-index","zh\u002Fquant\u002F00-index",[1741],{"title":1737,"path":1738,"stem":1739},{"title":1743,"path":1744,"stem":1745},"数据获取与预处理","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F01-research-data","zh\u002Fquant\u002F01-research-data",{"title":1747,"path":1748,"stem":1749},"因子与交易信号","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F02-factor-and-signals","zh\u002Fquant\u002F02-factor-and-signals",{"title":1751,"path":1752,"stem":1753},"策略建模与回测","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F03-modeling-and-backtest","zh\u002Fquant\u002F03-modeling-and-backtest",{"title":1755,"path":1756,"stem":1757},"组合构建与风险建模（资产定价视角）","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F04-portfolio-and-risk","zh\u002Fquant\u002F04-portfolio-and-risk",{"title":1759,"path":1760,"stem":1761},"执行策略与市场微结构概览","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F05-execution-and-microstructure","zh\u002Fquant\u002F05-execution-and-microstructure",{"title":1763,"path":1764,"stem":1765},"策略上线、监控与迭代","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F06-production-and-monitoring","zh\u002Fquant\u002F06-production-and-monitoring",{"title":1767,"path":1768,"stem":1769},"量化工程与工具链概览","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F07-engineering-stack","zh\u002Fquant\u002F07-engineering-stack",{"title":1771,"path":1772,"stem":1773},"计量方法与实证检验","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F08-econometric-methods","zh\u002Fquant\u002F08-econometric-methods",{"title":1775,"path":1776,"stem":1777},"案例研究：多因子股票 Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":920,"body":1785,"description":3184,"extension":3185,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":3186,"navigation":1782,"path":921,"published":3189,"seo":3190,"stem":922,"__hash__":3191},"docs\u002Fen\u002Fstatistics-for-insurance\u002F05-risk-theory\u002F03-examples.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3177},"minimark",[1788,1792,1796,1815,1820,1932,2080,2464,2470,2629,2633,2636,2642,2645,2649,2725,2729,2832,3169],[1789,1790,920],"h1",{"id":1791},"aggregate-risk-computation-lab",[1793,1794,1795],"p",{},"Use simulation to extend mathematics, not replace it. Each lab follows the same audit:",[1797,1798,1799,1803,1806,1809,1812],"ol",{},[1800,1801,1802],"li",{},"state the stochastic model and units;",[1800,1804,1805],{},"derive available moments;",[1800,1807,1808],{},"simulate with a fixed seed;",[1800,1810,1811],{},"reconcile simulation with theory;",[1800,1813,1814],{},"only then inspect tail quantities.",[1816,1817,1819],"h2",{"id":1818},"lab-a-collective-model-in-r","Lab A — collective model in R",[1793,1821,1822,1823,1931],{},"Let ",[1824,1825,1828,1873],"span",{"className":1826},[1827],"katex",[1824,1829,1832],{"className":1830},[1831],"katex-mathml",[1833,1834,1836],"math",{"xmlns":1835},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[1837,1838,1839,1868],"semantics",{},[1840,1841,1842,1846,1850,1854,1857,1861,1865],"mrow",{},[1843,1844,1845],"mi",{},"N",[1847,1848,1849],"mo",{},"∼",[1843,1851,1853],{"mathvariant":1852},"normal","Poisson",[1847,1855,1856],{},"⁡",[1847,1858,1860],{"stretchy":1859},"false","(",[1862,1863,1864],"mn",{},"40",[1847,1866,1867],{"stretchy":1859},")",[1869,1870,1872],"annotation",{"encoding":1871},"application\u002Fx-tex","N\\sim\\operatorname{Poisson}(40)",[1824,1874,1878,1905],{"className":1875,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],"katex-html","true",[1824,1879,1882,1887,1893,1898,1902],{"className":1880},[1881],"base",[1824,1883],{"className":1884,"style":1886},[1885],"strut","height:0.6833em;",[1824,1888,1845],{"className":1889,"style":1892},[1890,1891],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.109em;",[1824,1894],{"className":1895,"style":1897},[1896],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1824,1899,1849],{"className":1900},[1901],"mrel",[1824,1903],{"className":1904,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,1906,1908,1912,1920,1924,1927],{"className":1907},[1881],[1824,1909],{"className":1910,"style":1911},[1885],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1824,1913,1916],{"className":1914},[1915],"mop",[1824,1917,1853],{"className":1918},[1890,1919],"mathrm",[1824,1921,1860],{"className":1922},[1923],"mopen",[1824,1925,1864],{"className":1926},[1890],[1824,1928,1867],{"className":1929},[1930],"mclose"," and lognormal severity have mean £5,000 and log-scale SD 1.",[1824,1933,1936],{"className":1934},[1935],"katex-display",[1824,1937,1939,1987],{"className":1938},[1827],[1824,1940,1942],{"className":1941},[1831],[1833,1943,1945],{"xmlns":1835,"display":1944},"block",[1837,1946,1947,1984],{},[1840,1948,1949,1952,1955,1958,1961,1964,1966,1968,1971,1973,1975,1978,1981],{},[1843,1950,1951],{},"E",[1847,1953,1954],{"stretchy":1859},"[",[1843,1956,1957],{},"S",[1847,1959,1960],{"stretchy":1859},"]",[1847,1962,1963],{},"=",[1862,1965,1864],{},[1847,1967,1860],{"stretchy":1859},[1862,1969,1970],{},"5,000",[1847,1972,1867],{"stretchy":1859},[1847,1974,1963],{},[1843,1976,1977],{"mathvariant":1852},"£",[1862,1979,1980],{},"200,000",[1847,1982,1983],{"separator":1877},",",[1869,1985,1986],{"encoding":1871},"E[S]=40(5{,}000)=£200{,}000,",[1824,1988,1990,2018,2057],{"className":1989,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,1991,1993,1996,2000,2003,2006,2009,2012,2015],{"className":1992},[1881],[1824,1994],{"className":1995,"style":1911},[1885],[1824,1997,1951],{"className":1998,"style":1999},[1890,1891],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[1824,2001,1954],{"className":2002},[1923],[1824,2004,1957],{"className":2005,"style":1999},[1890,1891],[1824,2007,1960],{"className":2008},[1930],[1824,2010],{"className":2011,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2013,1963],{"className":2014},[1901],[1824,2016],{"className":2017,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2019,2021,2024,2027,2030,2034,2041,2045,2048,2051,2054],{"className":2020},[1881],[1824,2022],{"className":2023,"style":1911},[1885],[1824,2025,1864],{"className":2026},[1890],[1824,2028,1860],{"className":2029},[1923],[1824,2031,2033],{"className":2032},[1890],"5",[1824,2035,2037],{"className":2036},[1890],[1824,2038,1983],{"className":2039},[2040],"mpunct",[1824,2042,2044],{"className":2043},[1890],"000",[1824,2046,1867],{"className":2047},[1930],[1824,2049],{"className":2050,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2052,1963],{"className":2053},[1901],[1824,2055],{"className":2056,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2058,2060,2064,2068,2074,2077],{"className":2059},[1881],[1824,2061],{"className":2062,"style":2063},[1885],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1824,2065,2067],{"className":2066},[1890],"£200",[1824,2069,2071],{"className":2070},[1890],[1824,2072,1983],{"className":2073},[2040],[1824,2075,2044],{"className":2076},[1890],[1824,2078,1983],{"className":2079},[2040],[1824,2081,2083],{"className":2082},[1935],[1824,2084,2086,2162],{"className":2085},[1827],[1824,2087,2089],{"className":2088},[1831],[1833,2090,2091],{"xmlns":1835,"display":1944},[1837,2092,2093,2159],{},[1840,2094,2095,2098,2100,2102,2104,2106,2108,2130,2132,2151,2154,2156],{},[1843,2096,2097],{"mathvariant":1852},"SD",[1847,2099,1856],{},[1847,2101,1860],{"stretchy":1859},[1843,2103,1957],{},[1847,2105,1867],{"stretchy":1859},[1847,2107,1963],{},[2109,2110,2111],"msqrt",{},[1840,2112,2113,2115,2117,2119,2128],{},[1862,2114,1864],{},[1843,2116,1951],{},[1847,2118,1954],{"stretchy":1859},[2120,2121,2122,2125],"msup",{},[1843,2123,2124],{},"X",[1862,2126,2127],{},"2",[1847,2129,1960],{"stretchy":1859},[1847,2131,1963],{},[2109,2133,2134],{},[1840,2135,2136,2138,2140,2146,2149],{},[1862,2137,1864],{},[1847,2139,1860],{"stretchy":1859},[2120,2141,2142,2144],{},[1862,2143,1970],{},[1862,2145,2127],{},[1843,2147,2148],{},"e",[1847,2150,1867],{"stretchy":1859},[1847,2152,2153],{},"≈",[1843,2155,1977],{"mathvariant":1852},[1862,2157,2158],{},"52,133.",[1869,2160,2161],{"encoding":1871},"\\operatorname{SD}(S)=\\sqrt{40E[X^2]}\n=\\sqrt{40(5{,}000^2e)}\\approx£52{,}133.",[1824,2163,2165,2195,2330,2444],{"className":2164,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,2166,2168,2171,2177,2180,2183,2186,2189,2192],{"className":2167},[1881],[1824,2169],{"className":2170,"style":1911},[1885],[1824,2172,2174],{"className":2173},[1915],[1824,2175,2097],{"className":2176},[1890,1919],[1824,2178,1860],{"className":2179},[1923],[1824,2181,1957],{"className":2182,"style":1999},[1890,1891],[1824,2184,1867],{"className":2185},[1930],[1824,2187],{"className":2188,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2190,1963],{"className":2191},[1901],[1824,2193],{"className":2194,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2196,2198,2202,2321,2324,2327],{"className":2197},[1881],[1824,2199],{"className":2200,"style":2201},[1885],"height:1.24em;vertical-align:-0.2561em;",[1824,2203,2206],{"className":2204},[1890,2205],"sqrt",[1824,2207,2211,2312],{"className":2208},[2209,2210],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1824,2212,2215,2307],{"className":2213},[2214],"vlist-r",[1824,2216,2220,2284],{"className":2217,"style":2219},[2218],"vlist","height:0.9839em;",[1824,2221,2225,2230],{"className":2222,"style":2224},[2223],"svg-align","top:-3.2em;",[1824,2226],{"className":2227,"style":2229},[2228],"pstrut","height:3.2em;",[1824,2231,2234,2237,2240,2243,2281],{"className":2232,"style":2233},[1890],"padding-left:1em;",[1824,2235,1864],{"className":2236},[1890],[1824,2238,1951],{"className":2239,"style":1999},[1890,1891],[1824,2241,1954],{"className":2242},[1923],[1824,2244,2246,2250],{"className":2245},[1890],[18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0 400000 1296","xMinYMin slice",[2304,2305],"path",{"d":2306},"M263,681c0.7,0,18,39.7,52,119\nc34,79.3,68.167,158.7,102.5,238c34.3,79.3,51.8,119.3,52.5,120\nc340,-704.7,510.7,-1060.3,512,-1067\nl0 -0\nc4.7,-7.3,11,-11,19,-11\nH40000v40H1012.3\ns-271.3,567,-271.3,567c-38.7,80.7,-84,175,-136,283c-52,108,-89.167,185.3,-111.5,232\nc-22.3,46.7,-33.8,70.3,-34.5,71c-4.7,4.7,-12.3,7,-23,7s-12,-1,-12,-1\ns-109,-253,-109,-253c-72.7,-168,-109.3,-252,-110,-252c-10.7,8,-22,16.7,-34,26\nc-22,17.3,-33.3,26,-34,26s-26,-26,-26,-26s76,-59,76,-59s76,-60,76,-60z\nM1001 80h400000v40h-400000z",[1824,2308,2311],{"className":2309},[2310],"vlist-s","​",[1824,2313,2315],{"className":2314},[2214],[1824,2316,2319],{"className":2317,"style":2318},[2218],"height:0.2561em;",[1824,2320],{},[1824,2322],{"className":2323,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2325,1963],{"className":2326},[1901],[1824,2328],{"className":2329,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2331,2333,2336,2435,2438,2441],{"className":2332},[1881],[1824,2334],{"className":2335,"style":2201},[1885],[1824,2337,2339],{"className":2338},[1890,2205],[1824,2340,2342,2427],{"className":2341},[2209,2210],[1824,2343,2345,2424],{"className":2344},[2214],[1824,2346,2348,2412],{"className":2347,"style":2219},[2218],[1824,2349,2351,2354],{"className":2350,"style":2224},[2223],[1824,2352],{"className":2353,"style":2229},[2228],[1824,2355,2357,2360,2363,2366,2372,2376,2406,2409],{"className":2356,"style":2233},[1890],[1824,2358,1864],{"className":2359},[1890],[1824,2361,1860],{"className":2362},[1923],[1824,2364,2033],{"className":2365},[1890],[1824,2367,2369],{"className":2368},[1890],[1824,2370,1983],{"className":2371},[2040],[1824,2373,2375],{"className":2374},[1890],"00",[1824,2377,2379,2383],{"className":2378},[1890],[1824,2380,2382],{"className":2381},[1890],"0",[1824,2384,2386],{"className":2385},[2253],[1824,2387,2389],{"className":2388},[2209],[1824,2390,2392],{"className":2391},[2214],[1824,2393,2395],{"className":2394,"style":2263},[2218],[1824,2396,2397,2400],{"style":2266},[1824,2398],{"className":2399,"style":2270},[2228],[1824,2401,2403],{"className":2402},[2274,2275,2276,2277],[1824,2404,2127],{"className":2405},[1890,2277],[1824,2407,2148],{"className":2408},[1890,1891],[1824,2410,1867],{"className":2411},[1930],[1824,2413,2414,2417],{"style":2286},[1824,2415],{"className":2416,"style":2229},[2228],[1824,2418,2420],{"className":2419,"style":2294},[2293],[2296,2421,2422],{"xmlns":2298,"width":2299,"height":2300,"viewBox":2301,"preserveAspectRatio":2302},[2304,2423],{"d":2306},[1824,2425,2311],{"className":2426},[2310],[1824,2428,2430],{"className":2429},[2214],[1824,2431,2433],{"className":2432,"style":2318},[2218],[1824,2434],{},[1824,2436],{"className":2437,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2439,2153],{"className":2440},[1901],[1824,2442],{"className":2443,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2445,2447,2450,2454,2460],{"className":2446},[1881],[1824,2448],{"className":2449,"style":2063},[1885],[1824,2451,2453],{"className":2452},[1890],"£52",[1824,2455,2457],{"className":2456},[1890],[1824,2458,1983],{"className":2459},[2040],[1824,2461,2463],{"className":2462},[1890],"133.",[2465,2466],"web-r",{"code64":2467,"layout":2468,"locale":7,"title":2469},"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","vertical","Compound Poisson–lognormal: theory versus simulation",[1793,2471,2472,2473,2628],{},"Monte Carlo mean has standard error approximately ",[1824,2474,2476,2513],{"className":2475},[1827],[1824,2477,2479],{"className":2478},[1831],[1833,2480,2481],{"xmlns":1835},[1837,2482,2483,2510],{},[1840,2484,2485,2487,2489,2491,2493,2495,2498,2503,2505,2507],{},[1843,2486,2097],{"mathvariant":1852},[1847,2488,1856],{},[1847,2490,1860],{"stretchy":1859},[1843,2492,1957],{},[1847,2494,1867],{"stretchy":1859},[1843,2496,2497],{"mathvariant":1852},"\u002F",[2109,2499,2500],{},[1862,2501,2502],{},"30,000",[1847,2504,2153],{},[1843,2506,1977],{"mathvariant":1852},[1862,2508,2509],{},"301",[1869,2511,2512],{"encoding":1871},"\\operatorname{SD}(S)\u002F\\sqrt{30{,}000}\\approx£301",[1824,2514,2516,2617],{"className":2515,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,2517,2519,2523,2529,2532,2535,2538,2541,2608,2611,2614],{"className":2518},[1881],[1824,2520],{"className":2521,"style":2522},[1885],"height:1.06em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1824,2524,2526],{"className":2525},[1915],[1824,2527,2097],{"className":2528},[1890,1919],[1824,2530,1860],{"className":2531},[1923],[1824,2533,1957],{"className":2534,"style":1999},[1890,1891],[1824,2536,1867],{"className":2537},[1930],[1824,2539,2497],{"className":2540},[1890],[1824,2542,2544],{"className":2543},[1890,2205],[1824,2545,2547,2599],{"className":2546},[2209,2210],[1824,2548,2550,2596],{"className":2549},[2214],[1824,2551,2554,2579],{"className":2552,"style":2553},[2218],"height:0.81em;",[1824,2555,2558,2562],{"className":2556,"style":2557},[2223],"top:-3em;",[1824,2559],{"className":2560,"style":2561},[2228],"height:3em;",[1824,2563,2566,2570,2576],{"className":2564,"style":2565},[1890],"padding-left:0.833em;",[1824,2567,2569],{"className":2568},[1890],"30",[1824,2571,2573],{"className":2572},[1890],[1824,2574,1983],{"className":2575},[2040],[1824,2577,2044],{"className":2578},[1890],[1824,2580,2582,2585],{"style":2581},"top:-2.77em;",[1824,2583],{"className":2584,"style":2561},[2228],[1824,2586,2589],{"className":2587,"style":2588},[2293],"min-width:0.853em;height:1.08em;",[2296,2590,2593],{"xmlns":2298,"width":2299,"height":2591,"viewBox":2592,"preserveAspectRatio":2302},"1.08em","0 0 400000 1080",[2304,2594],{"d":2595},"M95,702\nc-2.7,0,-7.17,-2.7,-13.5,-8c-5.8,-5.3,-9.5,-10,-9.5,-14\nc0,-2,0.3,-3.3,1,-4c1.3,-2.7,23.83,-20.7,67.5,-54\nc44.2,-33.3,65.8,-50.3,66.5,-51c1.3,-1.3,3,-2,5,-2c4.7,0,8.7,3.3,12,10\ns173,378,173,378c0.7,0,35.3,-71,104,-213c68.7,-142,137.5,-285,206.5,-429\nc69,-144,104.5,-217.7,106.5,-221\nl0 -0\nc5.3,-9.3,12,-14,20,-14\nH400000v40H845.2724\ns-225.272,467,-225.272,467s-235,486,-235,486c-2.7,4.7,-9,7,-19,7\nc-6,0,-10,-1,-12,-3s-194,-422,-194,-422s-65,47,-65,47z\nM834 80h400000v40h-400000z",[1824,2597,2311],{"className":2598},[2310],[1824,2600,2602],{"className":2601},[2214],[1824,2603,2606],{"className":2604,"style":2605},[2218],"height:0.23em;",[1824,2607],{},[1824,2609],{"className":2610,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2612,2153],{"className":2613},[1901],[1824,2615],{"className":2616,"style":1897},[1896],[1824,2618,2620,2624],{"className":2619},[1881],[1824,2621],{"className":2622,"style":2623},[1885],"height:0.6944em;",[1824,2625,2627],{"className":2626},[1890],"£301",". A difference of a few hundred pounds is therefore expected; a difference of £20,000 signals a problem.",[1816,2630,2632],{"id":2631},"lab-b-heterogeneous-individual-risks-in-python","Lab B — heterogeneous individual risks in Python",[1793,2634,2635],{},"Simulate the three risks from the previous page. Claim severities are lognormal with the stated conditional means and SDs; risks and occurrence indicators are independent in this baseline.",[2637,2638],"pyodide",{"code64":2639,"layout":2468,"locale":7,"packages":2640,"title":2641},"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","numpy,matplotlib","Individual risks: formula versus simulation",[1793,2643,2644],{},"The high zero probability and long right tail make a Normal approximation poor despite matching mean and variance.",[1816,2646,2648],{"id":2647},"simulation-quality-checklist","Simulation quality checklist",[2650,2651,2652,2665],"table",{},[2653,2654,2655],"thead",{},[2656,2657,2658,2662],"tr",{},[2659,2660,2661],"th",{},"Check",[2659,2663,2664],{},"Minimum practice",[2666,2667,2668,2677,2685,2693,2701,2709,2717],"tbody",{},[2656,2669,2670,2674],{},[2671,2672,2673],"td",{},"reproducibility",[2671,2675,2676],{},"report seed, code, package versions, and sample size",[2656,2678,2679,2682],{},[2671,2680,2681],{},"parameterisation",[2671,2683,2684],{},"verify software's scale\u002Frate and log\u002Fordinary moments",[2656,2686,2687,2690],{},[2671,2688,2689],{},"units",[2671,2691,2692],{},"keep £, £000, and £m explicit",[2656,2694,2695,2698],{},[2671,2696,2697],{},"Monte Carlo error",[2671,2699,2700],{},"repeat seeds or estimate standard errors",[2656,2702,2703,2706],{},[2671,2704,2705],{},"tail stability",[2671,2707,2708],{},"show estimates across increasing simulation sizes",[2656,2710,2711,2714],{},[2671,2712,2713],{},"rare events",[2671,2715,2716],{},"use importance sampling or other variance reduction when crude simulation is inadequate",[2656,2718,2719,2722],{},[2671,2720,2721],{},"model validation",[2671,2723,2724],{},"compare with real holdout data, not simulation from the fitted model alone",[1816,2726,2728],{"id":2727},"practice-extensions","Practice extensions",[1797,2730,2731,2826,2829],{},[1800,2732,2733,2734,2738,2739,2825],{},"Double ",[2735,2736,2737],"code",{},"n_years","; does mean error shrink roughly with ",[1824,2740,2742,2764],{"className":2741},[1827],[1824,2743,2745],{"className":2744},[1831],[1833,2746,2747],{"xmlns":1835},[1837,2748,2749,2761],{},[1840,2750,2751,2754,2756],{},[1862,2752,2753],{},"1",[1843,2755,2497],{"mathvariant":1852},[2109,2757,2758],{},[1843,2759,2760],{},"n",[1869,2762,2763],{"encoding":1871},"1\u002F\\sqrt n",[1824,2765,2767],{"className":2766,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,2768,2770,2774,2778],{"className":2769},[1881],[1824,2771],{"className":2772,"style":2773},[1885],"height:1.0503em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1824,2775,2777],{"className":2776},[1890],"1\u002F",[1824,2779,2781],{"className":2780},[1890,2205],[1824,2782,2784,2816],{"className":2783},[2209,2210],[1824,2785,2787,2813],{"className":2786},[2214],[1824,2788,2791,2800],{"className":2789,"style":2790},[2218],"height:0.8003em;",[1824,2792,2794,2797],{"className":2793,"style":2557},[2223],[1824,2795],{"className":2796,"style":2561},[2228],[1824,2798,2760],{"className":2799,"style":2565},[1890,1891],[1824,2801,2803,2806],{"style":2802},"top:-2.7603em;",[1824,2804],{"className":2805,"style":2561},[2228],[1824,2807,2809],{"className":2808,"style":2588},[2293],[2296,2810,2811],{"xmlns":2298,"width":2299,"height":2591,"viewBox":2592,"preserveAspectRatio":2302},[2304,2812],{"d":2595},[1824,2814,2311],{"className":2815},[2310],[1824,2817,2819],{"className":2818},[2214],[1824,2820,2823],{"className":2821,"style":2822},[2218],"height:0.2397em;",[1824,2824],{},"?",[1800,2827,2828],{},"In Lab A, change severity log-SD from 1 to 1.4 while preserving mean. Predict mean, SD, and 99% quantile before running.",[1800,2830,2831],{},"In Lab B, make A and C occurrence indicators share a catastrophe state. Which analytical term must be added?",[2833,2834,2836],"legacy-details",{"title":2835},"Expected reasoning",[1797,2837,2838,2920,3001],{},[1800,2839,2840,2841,2919],{},"Not exactly in one run, but typical Monte Carlo standard error scales as ",[1824,2842,2844,2863],{"className":2843},[1827],[1824,2845,2847],{"className":2846},[1831],[1833,2848,2849],{"xmlns":1835},[1837,2850,2851,2861],{},[1840,2852,2853,2855,2857],{},[1862,2854,2753],{},[1843,2856,2497],{"mathvariant":1852},[2109,2858,2859],{},[1843,2860,2760],{},[1869,2862,2763],{"encoding":1871},[1824,2864,2866],{"className":2865,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,2867,2869,2872,2875],{"className":2868},[1881],[1824,2870],{"className":2871,"style":2773},[1885],[1824,2873,2777],{"className":2874},[1890],[1824,2876,2878],{"className":2877},[1890,2205],[1824,2879,2881,2911],{"className":2880},[2209,2210],[1824,2882,2884,2908],{"className":2883},[2214],[1824,2885,2887,2896],{"className":2886,"style":2790},[2218],[1824,2888,2890,2893],{"className":2889,"style":2557},[2223],[1824,2891],{"className":2892,"style":2561},[2228],[1824,2894,2760],{"className":2895,"style":2565},[1890,1891],[1824,2897,2898,2901],{"style":2802},[1824,2899],{"className":2900,"style":2561},[2228],[1824,2902,2904],{"className":2903,"style":2588},[2293],[2296,2905,2906],{"xmlns":2298,"width":2299,"height":2591,"viewBox":2592,"preserveAspectRatio":2302},[2304,2907],{"d":2595},[1824,2909,2311],{"className":2910},[2310],[1824,2912,2914],{"className":2913},[2214],[1824,2915,2917],{"className":2916,"style":2822},[2218],[1824,2918],{},".",[1800,2921,2922,2923,3000],{},"Mean remains about £200,000; SD and tail quantiles rise because ",[1824,2924,2926,2950],{"className":2925},[1827],[1824,2927,2929],{"className":2928},[1831],[1833,2930,2931],{"xmlns":1835},[1837,2932,2933,2947],{},[1840,2934,2935,2937,2939,2945],{},[1843,2936,1951],{},[1847,2938,1954],{"stretchy":1859},[2120,2940,2941,2943],{},[1843,2942,2124],{},[1862,2944,2127],{},[1847,2946,1960],{"stretchy":1859},[1869,2948,2949],{"encoding":1871},"E[X^2]",[1824,2951,2953],{"className":2952,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,2954,2956,2960,2963,2966,2997],{"className":2955},[1881],[1824,2957],{"className":2958,"style":2959},[1885],"height:1.0641em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1824,2961,1951],{"className":2962,"style":1999},[1890,1891],[1824,2964,1954],{"className":2965},[1923],[1824,2967,2969,2972],{"className":2968},[1890],[1824,2970,2124],{"className":2971,"style":2249},[1890,1891],[1824,2973,2975],{"className":2974},[2253],[1824,2976,2978],{"className":2977},[2209],[1824,2979,2981],{"className":2980},[2214],[1824,2982,2985],{"className":2983,"style":2984},[2218],"height:0.8141em;",[1824,2986,2988,2991],{"style":2987},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1824,2989],{"className":2990,"style":2270},[2228],[1824,2992,2994],{"className":2993},[2274,2275,2276,2277],[1824,2995,2127],{"className":2996},[1890,2277],[1824,2998,1960],{"className":2999},[1930]," rises.",[1800,3002,3003,3004,3168],{},"Add ",[1824,3005,3007,3048],{"className":3006},[1827],[1824,3008,3010],{"className":3009},[1831],[1833,3011,3012],{"xmlns":1835},[1837,3013,3014,3045],{},[1840,3015,3016,3018,3021,3023,3025,3034,3036,3043],{},[1862,3017,2127],{},[1843,3019,3020],{"mathvariant":1852},"Cov",[1847,3022,1856],{},[1847,3024,1860],{"stretchy":1859},[3026,3027,3028,3031],"msub",{},[1843,3029,3030],{},"Y",[1843,3032,3033],{},"A",[1847,3035,1983],{"separator":1877},[3026,3037,3038,3040],{},[1843,3039,3030],{},[1843,3041,3042],{},"C",[1847,3044,1867],{"stretchy":1859},[1869,3046,3047],{"encoding":1871},"2\\operatorname{Cov}(Y_A,Y_C)",[1824,3049,3051],{"className":3050,"ariaHidden":1877},[1876],[1824,3052,3054,3057,3060,3064,3071,3074,3118,3121,3124,3165],{"className":3053},[1881],[1824,3055],{"className":3056,"style":1911},[1885],[1824,3058,2127],{"className":3059},[1890],[1824,3061],{"className":3062,"style":3063},[1896],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[1824,3065,3067],{"className":3066},[1915],[1824,3068,3020],{"className":3069,"style":3070},[1890,1919],"margin-right:0.0139em;",[1824,3072,1860],{"className":3073},[1923],[1824,3075,3077,3081],{"className":3076},[1890],[1824,3078,3030],{"className":3079,"style":3080},[1890,1891],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1824,3082,3084],{"className":3083},[2253],[1824,3085,3087,3109],{"className":3086},[2209,2210],[1824,3088,3090,3106],{"className":3089},[2214],[1824,3091,3094],{"className":3092,"style":3093},[2218],"height:0.3283em;",[1824,3095,3097,3100],{"style":3096},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1824,3098],{"className":3099,"style":2270},[2228],[1824,3101,3103],{"className":3102},[2274,2275,2276,2277],[1824,3104,3033],{"className":3105},[1890,1891,2277],[1824,3107,2311],{"className":3108},[2310],[1824,3110,3112],{"className":3111},[2214],[1824,3113,3116],{"className":3114,"style":3115},[2218],"height:0.15em;",[1824,3117],{},[1824,3119,1983],{"className":3120},[2040],[1824,3122],{"className":3123,"style":3063},[1896],[1824,3125,3127,3130],{"className":3126},[1890],[1824,3128,3030],{"className":3129,"style":3080},[1890,1891],[1824,3131,3133],{"className":3132},[2253],[1824,3134,3136,3157],{"className":3135},[2209,2210],[1824,3137,3139,3154],{"className":3138},[2214],[1824,3140,3142],{"className":3141,"style":3093},[2218],[1824,3143,3144,3147],{"style":3096},[1824,3145],{"className":3146,"style":2270},[2228],[1824,3148,3150],{"className":3149},[2274,2275,2276,2277],[1824,3151,3042],{"className":3152,"style":3153},[1890,1891,2277],"margin-right:0.0715em;",[1824,3155,2311],{"className":3156},[2310],[1824,3158,3160],{"className":3159},[2214],[1824,3161,3163],{"className":3162,"style":3115},[2218],[1824,3164],{},[1824,3166,1867],{"className":3167},[1930]," to portfolio variance; the full tail also changes and cannot be recovered from variance alone.",[1793,3170,3171,3172,2919],{},"Continue to ",[3173,3174,3176],"a",{"href":3175},".\u002F04-tail-capital","Tail Risk and Capital",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3178,"depth":3178,"links":3179},2,[3180,3181,3182,3183],{"id":1818,"depth":3178,"text":1819},{"id":2631,"depth":3178,"text":2632},{"id":2647,"depth":3178,"text":2648},{"id":2727,"depth":3178,"text":2728},"Reconcile analytical moments with transparent R and Python simulations.","md",{"sidebar":3187},{"order":3188},3,true,{"title":920,"description":3184},"KYPSmDt1vqz1qFkYfGEH3suBO72Jv5v2OjqC7V049P4",[3193,3195],{"title":916,"path":917,"stem":918,"description":3194,"children":-1},"Aggregate heterogeneous policy risks and expose the effect of common dependence.",{"title":924,"path":925,"stem":926,"description":3196,"children":-1},"Calculate VaR and TVaR, model common shocks, and preserve the boundary between risk theory and regulation.",1785754736793]