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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",{"path":1419},{"id":1784,"title":531,"body":1785,"description":3398,"extension":3399,"features":3400,"hero":3400,"layout":3400,"locale":3400,"meta":3401,"navigation":3400,"path":532,"published":3402,"seo":3403,"stem":533,"__hash__":3404},"docs\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3373},"minimark",[1788,1792,1797,1801,1805,1808,1824,1828,1928,1931,1935,1938,1965,1991,1995,2000,2003,2303,2318,2519,2532,2601,2604,2608,2611,2625,2629,2640,2643,2647,2650,2654,2658,2661,2780,2787,2896,2903,2907,2911,2915,3005,3013,3016,3020,3023,3027,3099,3102,3106,3109,3115,3118,3123,3126,3130,3133,3153,3223,3227,3349,3353,3370],[1789,1790,531],"h1",{"id":1791},"chapter-12-integrated-economic-analysis-studio",[1793,1794,1796],"h2",{"id":1795},"core-question","Core question",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"Can you move from a real problem to a model, mechanism, calculation, evidence check, and defensible policy judgment?",[1793,1802,1804],{"id":1803},"learning-outcomes","Learning outcomes",[1798,1806,1807],{},"You will be able to:",[1809,1810,1811,1815,1818,1821],"ul",{},[1812,1813,1814],"li",{},"select and combine models without treating any one model as reality;",[1812,1816,1817],{},"distinguish an accounting result, model prediction, empirical estimate, and value judgment;",[1812,1819,1820],{},"evaluate policy through efficiency, distribution, stability, and implementation;",[1812,1822,1823],{},"write a compact economic argument whose limits are explicit.",[1793,1825,1827],{"id":1826},"_1-select-the-smallest-model-that-answers-the-question","1. Select the smallest model that answers the question",[1829,1830,1831,1847],"table",{},[1832,1833,1834],"thead",{},[1835,1836,1837,1841,1844],"tr",{},[1838,1839,1840],"th",{},"Question",[1838,1842,1843],{},"Start with",[1838,1845,1846],{},"Add only if needed",[1848,1849,1850,1862,1873,1884,1895,1906,1917],"tbody",{},[1835,1851,1852,1856,1859],{},[1853,1854,1855],"td",{},"Why did one market's price change?",[1853,1857,1858],{},"demand and supply",[1853,1860,1861],{},"elasticity, market power, policy wedge",[1835,1863,1864,1867,1870],{},[1853,1865,1866],{},"Who bears a tax?",[1853,1868,1869],{},"elasticity and incidence",[1853,1871,1872],{},"externality, distribution, avoidance",[1835,1874,1875,1878,1881],{},[1853,1876,1877],{},"Is living material welfare improving?",[1853,1879,1880],{},"real GDP per person",[1853,1882,1883],{},"distribution, leisure, health, environment",[1835,1885,1886,1889,1892],{},[1853,1887,1888],{},"Why did inflation rise?",[1853,1890,1891],{},"price-index decomposition",[1853,1893,1894],{},"AD–AS, wages, exchange rate, expectations",[1835,1896,1897,1900,1903],{},[1853,1898,1899],{},"Can a bank survive a shock?",[1853,1901,1902],{},"balance sheet",[1853,1904,1905],{},"liquidity, duration, confidence, contagion",[1835,1907,1908,1911,1914],{},[1853,1909,1910],{},"Which stabilisation policy fits?",[1853,1912,1913],{},"shock diagnosis and output gap",[1853,1915,1916],{},"transmission, lags, distribution, debt",[1835,1918,1919,1922,1925],{},[1853,1920,1921],{},"What follows from depreciation?",[1853,1923,1924],{},"quote and real exchange rate",[1853,1926,1927],{},"contracts, pass-through, trade, balance sheets",[1798,1929,1930],{},"Using more diagrams does not make an answer stronger. Every added model must resolve a question the previous one could not.",[1793,1932,1934],{"id":1933},"_2-the-eight-sentence-discipline","2. The eight-sentence discipline",[1798,1936,1937],{},"A compact analysis can follow eight moves:",[1939,1940,1941,1944,1947,1950,1953,1956,1959,1962],"ol",{},[1812,1942,1943],{},"define the outcome and time horizon;",[1812,1945,1946],{},"state the baseline or counterfactual;",[1812,1948,1949],{},"name the shock or intervention;",[1812,1951,1952],{},"choose the model and assumptions;",[1812,1954,1955],{},"trace the mechanism;",[1812,1957,1958],{},"calculate or sign the main effects;",[1812,1960,1961],{},"compare the prediction with evidence;",[1812,1963,1964],{},"judge the policy and name the uncertainty that could reverse the judgment.",[1966,1967,1969,1973,1974,1978,1979,1982,1983,1986,1987,1990],"tip",{"title":1968},"Four kinds of statement",[1970,1971,1972],"code",{},"GDP = C + I + G + NX"," is an ",[1975,1976,1977],"strong",{},"identity",". “A tax raises the buyer price” is a ",[1975,1980,1981],{},"model prediction"," under stated conditions. “Sales fell 15%” is an ",[1975,1984,1985],{},"estimate"," tied to data and design. “The tax is fair” is a ",[1975,1988,1989],{},"normative judgment"," requiring a criterion.",[1793,1992,1994],{"id":1993},"_3-case-a-a-sugary-drink-tax","3. Case A — a sugary-drink tax",[1996,1997,1999],"h3",{"id":1998},"the-decision","The decision",[1798,2001,2002],{},"A city is considering a tax of £2 per unit on sugary drinks. Before tax:",[2004,2005,2008],"span",{"className":2006},[2007],"katex-display",[2004,2009,2012,2090],{"className":2010},[2011],"katex",[2004,2013,2016],{"className":2014},[2015],"katex-mathml",[2017,2018,2021],"math",{"xmlns":2019,"display":2020},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[2022,2023,2024,2085],"semantics",{},[2025,2026,2027,2037,2041,2045,2048,2051,2054,2058,2062,2069,2071,2074,2077,2079,2081],"mrow",{},[2028,2029,2030,2034],"msub",{},[2031,2032,2033],"mi",{},"Q",[2031,2035,2036],{},"D",[2038,2039,2040],"mo",{},"=",[2042,2043,2044],"mn",{},"100",[2038,2046,2047],{},"−",[2042,2049,2050],{},"10",[2031,2052,2053],{},"P",[2038,2055,2057],{"separator":2056},"true",",",[2059,2060],"mspace",{"width":2061},"2em",[2028,2063,2064,2066],{},[2031,2065,2033],{},[2031,2067,2068],{},"S",[2038,2070,2040],{},[2042,2072,2073],{},"20",[2038,2075,2076],{},"+",[2042,2078,2050],{},[2031,2080,2053],{},[2031,2082,2084],{"mathvariant":2083},"normal",".",[2086,2087,2089],"annotation",{"encoding":2088},"application\u002Fx-tex","Q_D=100-10P,\\qquad Q_S=20+10P.",[2004,2091,2094,2173,2194,2269,2287],{"className":2092,"ariaHidden":2056},[2093],"katex-html",[2004,2095,2098,2103,2162,2166,2170],{"className":2096},[2097],"base",[2004,2099],{"className":2100,"style":2102},[2101],"strut","height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[2004,2104,2107,2111],{"className":2105},[2106],"mord",[2004,2108,2033],{"className":2109},[2106,2110],"mathnormal",[2004,2112,2115],{"className":2113},[2114],"msupsub",[2004,2116,2120,2153],{"className":2117},[2118,2119],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[2004,2121,2124,2148],{"className":2122},[2123],"vlist-r",[2004,2125,2129],{"className":2126,"style":2128},[2127],"vlist","height:0.3283em;",[2004,2130,2132,2137],{"style":2131},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[2004,2133],{"className":2134,"style":2136},[2135],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[2004,2138,2144],{"className":2139},[2140,2141,2142,2143],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[2004,2145,2036],{"className":2146,"style":2147},[2106,2110,2143],"margin-right:0.0278em;",[2004,2149,2152],{"className":2150},[2151],"vlist-s","​",[2004,2154,2156],{"className":2155},[2123],[2004,2157,2160],{"className":2158,"style":2159},[2127],"height:0.15em;",[2004,2161],{},[2004,2163],{"className":2164,"style":2165},[2059],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[2004,2167,2040],{"className":2168},[2169],"mrel",[2004,2171],{"className":2172,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2174,2176,2180,2183,2187,2191],{"className":2175},[2097],[2004,2177],{"className":2178,"style":2179},[2101],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[2004,2181,2044],{"className":2182},[2106],[2004,2184],{"className":2185,"style":2186},[2059],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[2004,2188,2047],{"className":2189},[2190],"mbin",[2004,2192],{"className":2193,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2195,2197,2200,2203,2207,2211,2215,2219,2260,2263,2266],{"className":2196},[2097],[2004,2198],{"className":2199,"style":2102},[2101],[2004,2201,2050],{"className":2202},[2106],[2004,2204,2053],{"className":2205,"style":2206},[2106,2110],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[2004,2208,2057],{"className":2209},[2210],"mpunct",[2004,2212],{"className":2213,"style":2214},[2059],"margin-right:2em;",[2004,2216],{"className":2217,"style":2218},[2059],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[2004,2220,2222,2225],{"className":2221},[2106],[2004,2223,2033],{"className":2224},[2106,2110],[2004,2226,2228],{"className":2227},[2114],[2004,2229,2231,2252],{"className":2230},[2118,2119],[2004,2232,2234,2249],{"className":2233},[2123],[2004,2235,2237],{"className":2236,"style":2128},[2127],[2004,2238,2239,2242],{"style":2131},[2004,2240],{"className":2241,"style":2136},[2135],[2004,2243,2245],{"className":2244},[2140,2141,2142,2143],[2004,2246,2068],{"className":2247,"style":2248},[2106,2110,2143],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[2004,2250,2152],{"className":2251},[2151],[2004,2253,2255],{"className":2254},[2123],[2004,2256,2258],{"className":2257,"style":2159},[2127],[2004,2259],{},[2004,2261],{"className":2262,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2264,2040],{"className":2265},[2169],[2004,2267],{"className":2268,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2270,2272,2275,2278,2281,2284],{"className":2271},[2097],[2004,2273],{"className":2274,"style":2179},[2101],[2004,2276,2073],{"className":2277},[2106],[2004,2279],{"className":2280,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2282,2076],{"className":2283},[2190],[2004,2285],{"className":2286,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2288,2290,2294,2297,2300],{"className":2289},[2097],[2004,2291],{"className":2292,"style":2293},[2101],"height:0.6833em;",[2004,2295,2050],{"className":2296},[2106],[2004,2298,2053],{"className":2299,"style":2206},[2106,2110],[2004,2301,2084],{"className":2302},[2106],[1798,2304,2305,2306,2309,2310,2313,2314,2317],{},"Equilibrium is ",[1970,2307,2308],{},"P = £4",", ",[1970,2311,2312],{},"Q = 60",". With ",[1970,2315,2316],{},"P_b - P_s = £2",":",[2004,2319,2321],{"className":2320},[2007],[2004,2322,2324,2366],{"className":2323},[2011],[2004,2325,2327],{"className":2326},[2015],[2017,2328,2329],{"xmlns":2019,"display":2020},[2022,2330,2331,2363],{},[2025,2332,2333,2335,2337,2339,2346,2348,2350,2352,2354,2361],{},[2042,2334,2044],{},[2038,2336,2047],{},[2042,2338,2050],{},[2028,2340,2341,2343],{},[2031,2342,2053],{},[2031,2344,2345],{},"b",[2038,2347,2040],{},[2042,2349,2073],{},[2038,2351,2076],{},[2042,2353,2050],{},[2028,2355,2356,2358],{},[2031,2357,2053],{},[2031,2359,2360],{},"s",[2038,2362,2057],{"separator":2056},[2086,2364,2365],{"encoding":2088},"100-10P_b=20+10P_s,",[2004,2367,2369,2387,2448,2466],{"className":2368,"ariaHidden":2056},[2093],[2004,2370,2372,2375,2378,2381,2384],{"className":2371},[2097],[2004,2373],{"className":2374,"style":2179},[2101],[2004,2376,2044],{"className":2377},[2106],[2004,2379],{"className":2380,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2382,2047],{"className":2383},[2190],[2004,2385],{"className":2386,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2388,2390,2394,2397,2439,2442,2445],{"className":2389},[2097],[2004,2391],{"className":2392,"style":2393},[2101],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[2004,2395,2050],{"className":2396},[2106],[2004,2398,2400,2403],{"className":2399},[2106],[2004,2401,2053],{"className":2402,"style":2206},[2106,2110],[2004,2404,2406],{"className":2405},[2114],[2004,2407,2409,2431],{"className":2408},[2118,2119],[2004,2410,2412,2428],{"className":2411},[2123],[2004,2413,2416],{"className":2414,"style":2415},[2127],"height:0.3361em;",[2004,2417,2419,2422],{"style":2418},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1389em;margin-right:0.05em;",[2004,2420],{"className":2421,"style":2136},[2135],[2004,2423,2425],{"className":2424},[2140,2141,2142,2143],[2004,2426,2345],{"className":2427},[2106,2110,2143],[2004,2429,2152],{"className":2430},[2151],[2004,2432,2434],{"className":2433},[2123],[2004,2435,2437],{"className":2436,"style":2159},[2127],[2004,2438],{},[2004,2440],{"className":2441,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2443,2040],{"className":2444},[2169],[2004,2446],{"className":2447,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2449,2451,2454,2457,2460,2463],{"className":2450},[2097],[2004,2452],{"className":2453,"style":2179},[2101],[2004,2455,2073],{"className":2456},[2106],[2004,2458],{"className":2459,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2461,2076],{"className":2462},[2190],[2004,2464],{"className":2465,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2467,2469,2472,2475,2516],{"className":2468},[2097],[2004,2470],{"className":2471,"style":2102},[2101],[2004,2473,2050],{"className":2474},[2106],[2004,2476,2478,2481],{"className":2477},[2106],[2004,2479,2053],{"className":2480,"style":2206},[2106,2110],[2004,2482,2484],{"className":2483},[2114],[2004,2485,2487,2508],{"className":2486},[2118,2119],[2004,2488,2490,2505],{"className":2489},[2123],[2004,2491,2494],{"className":2492,"style":2493},[2127],"height:0.1514em;",[2004,2495,2496,2499],{"style":2418},[2004,2497],{"className":2498,"style":2136},[2135],[2004,2500,2502],{"className":2501},[2140,2141,2142,2143],[2004,2503,2360],{"className":2504},[2106,2110,2143],[2004,2506,2152],{"className":2507},[2151],[2004,2509,2511],{"className":2510},[2123],[2004,2512,2514],{"className":2513,"style":2159},[2127],[2004,2515],{},[2004,2517,2057],{"className":2518},[2210],[1798,2520,2521,2522,2309,2525,2528,2529,2084],{},"so ",[1970,2523,2524],{},"P_b = £5",[1970,2526,2527],{},"P_s = £3",", and ",[1970,2530,2531],{},"Q = 50",[1829,2533,2534,2548],{},[1832,2535,2536],{},[1835,2537,2538,2541,2545],{},[1838,2539,2540],{},"Result",[1838,2542,2544],{"align":2543},"right","Calculation",[1838,2546,2547],{},"Interpretation",[1848,2549,2550,2563,2575,2588],{},[1835,2551,2552,2555,2560],{},[1853,2553,2554],{},"buyer burden",[1853,2556,2557],{"align":2543},[1970,2558,2559],{},"£5 − £4 = £1",[1853,2561,2562],{},"half the tax",[1835,2564,2565,2568,2573],{},[1853,2566,2567],{},"seller burden",[1853,2569,2570],{"align":2543},[1970,2571,2572],{},"£4 − £3 = £1",[1853,2574,2562],{},[1835,2576,2577,2580,2585],{},[1853,2578,2579],{},"revenue",[1853,2581,2582],{"align":2543},[1970,2583,2584],{},"£2 × 50 = £100",[1853,2586,2587],{},"transfer to government, not net social gain",[1835,2589,2590,2593,2598],{},[1853,2591,2592],{},"quantity response",[1853,2594,2595],{"align":2543},[1970,2596,2597],{},"60 → 50",[1853,2599,2600],{},"consumption and production fall",[1798,2602,2603],{},"The equal split comes from these particular slopes. The statutory payer does not determine economic incidence.",[1996,2605,2607],{"id":2606},"add-the-policy-objective","Add the policy objective",[1798,2609,2610],{},"If consumption imposes health costs not considered by buyers and sellers, the market quantity can exceed the social optimum. A corrective tax can improve efficiency by aligning private and social marginal cost. But four questions remain:",[1939,2612,2613,2616,2619,2622],{},[1812,2614,2615],{},"How large is the external cost?",[1812,2617,2618],{},"Do consumers substitute toward other high-sugar products?",[1812,2620,2621],{},"Who bears the burden by income and health status?",[1812,2623,2624],{},"How is the revenue used?",[1996,2626,2628],{"id":2627},"check-against-evidence","Check against evidence",[1798,2630,2631,2632,2639],{},"A systematic review and meta-analysis covering 86 studies reported average tax pass-through of 82% and a 15% reduction in sugary-drink sales, with substantial heterogeneity across designs and settings (",[2633,2634,2638],"a",{"href":2635,"rel":2636},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1001\u002Fjamanetworkopen.2022.15276",[2637],"nofollow","Andreyeva et al., 2022",").",[1798,2641,2642],{},"That evidence supports a price-and-quantity mechanism. It does not reveal this city's exact response, long-run health gain, distributional effect, or optimal tax rate.",[1996,2644,2646],{"id":2645},"policy-judgment","Policy judgment",[1798,2648,2649],{},"A defensible recommendation might combine the tax with free drinking water, nutrition support, transparent use of revenue, and pre-specified evaluation of prices, sales, substitution, and outcomes by income group. This follows from the mechanism; it is not implied by the tax diagram alone.",[1793,2651,2653],{"id":2652},"_4-case-b-energy-inflation-in-an-importing-economy","4. Case B — energy inflation in an importing economy",[1996,2655,2657],{"id":2656},"initial-shock","Initial shock",[1798,2659,2660],{},"World energy prices rise 40% and the domestic currency depreciates 10% against the invoicing currency:",[2004,2662,2664],{"className":2663},[2007],[2004,2665,2667,2711],{"className":2666},[2011],[2004,2668,2670],{"className":2669},[2015],[2017,2671,2672],{"xmlns":2019,"display":2020},[2022,2673,2674,2708],{},[2025,2675,2676,2680,2683,2686,2688,2691,2693,2695,2698,2700,2703,2706],{},[2038,2677,2679],{"stretchy":2678},"false","(",[2042,2681,2682],{},"1.40",[2038,2684,2685],{"stretchy":2678},")",[2038,2687,2679],{"stretchy":2678},[2042,2689,2690],{},"1.10",[2038,2692,2685],{"stretchy":2678},[2038,2694,2047],{},[2042,2696,2697],{},"1",[2038,2699,2040],{},[2042,2701,2702],{},"54",[2031,2704,2705],{"mathvariant":2083},"%",[2031,2707,2084],{"mathvariant":2083},[2086,2709,2710],{"encoding":2088},"(1.40)(1.10)-1=54\\%.",[2004,2712,2714,2750,2769],{"className":2713,"ariaHidden":2056},[2093],[2004,2715,2717,2721,2725,2728,2732,2735,2738,2741,2744,2747],{"className":2716},[2097],[2004,2718],{"className":2719,"style":2720},[2101],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[2004,2722,2679],{"className":2723},[2724],"mopen",[2004,2726,2682],{"className":2727},[2106],[2004,2729,2685],{"className":2730},[2731],"mclose",[2004,2733,2679],{"className":2734},[2724],[2004,2736,2690],{"className":2737},[2106],[2004,2739,2685],{"className":2740},[2731],[2004,2742],{"className":2743,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2745,2047],{"className":2746},[2190],[2004,2748],{"className":2749,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2751,2753,2757,2760,2763,2766],{"className":2752},[2097],[2004,2754],{"className":2755,"style":2756},[2101],"height:0.6444em;",[2004,2758,2697],{"className":2759},[2106],[2004,2761],{"className":2762,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2764,2040],{"className":2765},[2169],[2004,2767],{"className":2768,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2770,2772,2776],{"className":2771},[2097],[2004,2773],{"className":2774,"style":2775},[2101],"height:0.8056em;vertical-align:-0.0556em;",[2004,2777,2779],{"className":2778},[2106],"54%.",[1798,2781,2782,2783,2786],{},"Suppose energy has a 10% CPI weight and 70% of the combined cost reaches consumers. A first-round arithmetic contribution to the ",[1975,2784,2785],{},"price level"," is:",[2004,2788,2790],{"className":2789},[2007],[2004,2791,2793,2826],{"className":2792},[2011],[2004,2794,2796],{"className":2795},[2015],[2017,2797,2798],{"xmlns":2019,"display":2020},[2022,2799,2800,2823],{},[2025,2801,2802,2805,2808,2811,2813,2816,2818,2821],{},[2042,2803,2804],{},"0.10",[2038,2806,2807],{},"×",[2042,2809,2810],{},"0.54",[2038,2812,2807],{},[2042,2814,2815],{},"0.70",[2038,2817,2040],{},[2042,2819,2820],{},"0.0378",[2038,2822,2057],{"separator":2056},[2086,2824,2825],{"encoding":2088},"0.10\\times0.54\\times0.70=0.0378,",[2004,2827,2829,2847,2865,2883],{"className":2828,"ariaHidden":2056},[2093],[2004,2830,2832,2835,2838,2841,2844],{"className":2831},[2097],[2004,2833],{"className":2834,"style":2179},[2101],[2004,2836,2804],{"className":2837},[2106],[2004,2839],{"className":2840,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2842,2807],{"className":2843},[2190],[2004,2845],{"className":2846,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2848,2850,2853,2856,2859,2862],{"className":2849},[2097],[2004,2851],{"className":2852,"style":2179},[2101],[2004,2854,2810],{"className":2855},[2106],[2004,2857],{"className":2858,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2860,2807],{"className":2861},[2190],[2004,2863],{"className":2864,"style":2186},[2059],[2004,2866,2868,2871,2874,2877,2880],{"className":2867},[2097],[2004,2869],{"className":2870,"style":2756},[2101],[2004,2872,2815],{"className":2873},[2106],[2004,2875],{"className":2876,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2878,2040],{"className":2879},[2169],[2004,2881],{"className":2882,"style":2165},[2059],[2004,2884,2886,2890,2893],{"className":2885},[2097],[2004,2887],{"className":2888,"style":2889},[2101],"height:0.8389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[2004,2891,2820],{"className":2892},[2106],[2004,2894,2057],{"className":2895},[2210],[1798,2897,2898,2899,2902],{},"or about ",[1975,2900,2901],{},"3.8%",". This is not automatically a permanent 3.8 percentage-point addition to annual inflation: weights, timing, substitution, taxes, caps, and indirect effects matter.",[1996,2904,2906],{"id":2905},"trace-the-whole-system","Trace the whole system",[2908,2909],"mermaid-diagram",{"code64":2910,"locale":7},"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",[1996,2912,2914],{"id":2913},"diagnose-before-prescribing","Diagnose before prescribing",[1829,2916,2917,2933],{},[1832,2918,2919],{},[1835,2920,2921,2924,2927,2930],{},[1838,2922,2923],{},"Instrument",[1838,2925,2926],{},"What it can do",[1838,2928,2929],{},"What it cannot do",[1838,2931,2932],{},"Main risk",[1848,2934,2935,2949,2963,2977,2991],{},[1835,2936,2937,2940,2943,2946],{},[1853,2938,2939],{},"higher policy rate",[1853,2941,2942],{},"limit demand and second-round inflation",[1853,2944,2945],{},"create imported energy",[1853,2947,2948],{},"deeper output loss; financial stress",[1835,2950,2951,2954,2957,2960],{},[1853,2952,2953],{},"targeted cash transfer",[1853,2955,2956],{},"protect vulnerable real income",[1853,2958,2959],{},"lower the resource cost",[1853,2961,2962],{},"fiscal cost; targeting error",[1835,2964,2965,2968,2971,2974],{},[1853,2966,2967],{},"universal price cap",[1853,2969,2970],{},"suppress measured price quickly",[1853,2972,2973],{},"remove scarcity",[1853,2975,2976],{},"weak conservation signal; large cost",[1835,2978,2979,2982,2985,2988],{},[1853,2980,2981],{},"energy investment",[1853,2983,2984],{},"expand or diversify future supply",[1853,2986,2987],{},"solve this winter immediately",[1853,2989,2990],{},"delay and project risk",[1835,2992,2993,2996,2999,3002],{},[1853,2994,2995],{},"bank liquidity support",[1853,2997,2998],{},"stop forced asset sales by solvent banks",[1853,3000,3001],{},"restore insolvent borrowers",[1853,3003,3004],{},"moral hazard; misdiagnosis",[1798,3006,3007,3008,2639],{},"Bernanke and Blanchard's decomposition of US pandemic-era inflation attributes the initial surge mainly to commodity and sectoral price shocks, with labour-market tightness becoming more important for persistence. The lesson is to separate the source of an inflation increase from the mechanism that keeps it going (",[2633,3009,3012],{"href":3010,"rel":3011},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.brookings.edu\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2023\u002F06\u002FWP86-Bernanke-Blanchard_6.13.pdf",[2637],"Bernanke & Blanchard, 2023",[1798,3014,3015],{},"Their evidence concerns the United States and a specific episode. An energy-importing economy with currency depreciation, weaker credibility, or regulated prices may transmit the shock differently.",[1996,3017,3019],{"id":3018},"a-coherent-package","A coherent package",[1798,3021,3022],{},"One possible package is temporary targeted income support, preservation of marginal energy prices, credible monetary communication focused on persistence, bank stress monitoring, and accelerated high-return energy investment. The recommendation is conditional on stable expectations, administrative capacity, and debt space; change those conditions and the package should change.",[1793,3024,3026],{"id":3025},"_5-compare-the-cases","5. Compare the cases",[1829,3028,3029,3042],{},[1832,3030,3031],{},[1835,3032,3033,3036,3039],{},[1838,3034,3035],{},"Feature",[1838,3037,3038],{},"Sugary-drink tax",[1838,3040,3041],{},"Imported-energy shock",[1848,3043,3044,3055,3066,3077,3088],{},[1835,3045,3046,3049,3052],{},[1853,3047,3048],{},"starting model",[1853,3050,3051],{},"partial-equilibrium tax wedge",[1853,3053,3054],{},"open-economy AD–AS",[1835,3056,3057,3060,3063],{},[1853,3058,3059],{},"central elasticity",[1853,3061,3062],{},"demand\u002Fsupply and incidence",[1853,3064,3065],{},"import demand, pass-through, wage\u002Fprice response",[1835,3067,3068,3071,3074],{},[1853,3069,3070],{},"welfare issue",[1853,3072,3073],{},"external cost and regressivity",[1853,3075,3076],{},"unavoidable real-income loss and burden sharing",[1835,3078,3079,3082,3085],{},[1853,3080,3081],{},"main evidence problem",[1853,3083,3084],{},"causal consumption and health effects",[1853,3086,3087],{},"source versus persistence of inflation",[1835,3089,3090,3093,3096],{},[1853,3091,3092],{},"policy failure risk",[1853,3094,3095],{},"substitution, avoidance, poor revenue use",[1853,3097,3098],{},"contradictory monetary\u002Ffiscal signals",[1798,3100,3101],{},"The common method is unchanged: define the counterfactual, trace behaviour, quantify where possible, inspect distribution, and state what evidence could overturn the result.",[1793,3103,3105],{"id":3104},"_6-turn-analysis-into-a-paragraph","6. Turn analysis into a paragraph",[1798,3107,3108],{},"Weak:",[3110,3111,3112],"blockquote",{},[1798,3113,3114],{},"Energy inflation shifts supply and the government should intervene.",[1798,3116,3117],{},"Stronger:",[3110,3119,3120],{},[1798,3121,3122],{},"A rise in the domestic-currency cost of imported gas raises firms' marginal costs, shifting short-run aggregate supply left; output falls while the price level rises. A universal price cap can protect current purchasing power but weakens conservation and exposes the budget to the wholesale price. Targeted lump-sum support preserves the marginal price signal, although its value depends on administrative reach. I would therefore target temporary transfers and review them when wholesale prices or household arrears cross pre-announced thresholds.",[1798,3124,3125],{},"The second paragraph names the shock, model, mechanism, trade-off, recommendation, and exit condition.",[1793,3127,3129],{"id":3128},"_7-capstone-task","7. Capstone task",[1798,3131,3132],{},"Choose one current economic claim and submit a 1,200-word policy note:",[1939,3134,3135,3138,3141,3144,3147,3150],{},[1812,3136,3137],{},"a one-sentence question and explicit counterfactual;",[1812,3139,3140],{},"one diagram or balance sheet;",[1812,3142,3143],{},"one transparent calculation;",[1812,3145,3146],{},"two primary or peer-reviewed sources;",[1812,3148,3149],{},"mechanism and distributional analysis;",[1812,3151,3152],{},"recommendation, implementation risk, and falsification condition.",[1829,3154,3155,3168],{},[1832,3156,3157],{},[1835,3158,3159,3162,3165],{},[1838,3160,3161],{},"Criterion",[1838,3163,3164],{"align":2543},"Weight",[1838,3166,3167],{},"Full-credit signal",[1848,3169,3170,3181,3191,3202,3212],{},[1835,3171,3172,3175,3178],{},[1853,3173,3174],{},"diagnosis and model choice",[1853,3176,3177],{"align":2543},"25%",[1853,3179,3180],{},"model matches question; assumptions stated",[1835,3182,3183,3186,3188],{},[1853,3184,3185],{},"mechanism and calculation",[1853,3187,3177],{"align":2543},[1853,3189,3190],{},"causal chain is complete; units are correct",[1835,3192,3193,3196,3199],{},[1853,3194,3195],{},"evidence",[1853,3197,3198],{"align":2543},"20%",[1853,3200,3201],{},"source fits claim; uncertainty is not hidden",[1835,3203,3204,3207,3209],{},[1853,3205,3206],{},"policy appraisal",[1853,3208,3198],{"align":2543},[1853,3210,3211],{},"incidence, timing, incentives, and feasibility",[1835,3213,3214,3217,3220],{},[1853,3215,3216],{},"communication",[1853,3218,3219],{"align":2543},"10%",[1853,3221,3222],{},"concise, structured, and qualified",[1793,3224,3226],{"id":3225},"_8-evidence-trail-for-further-study","8. Evidence trail for further study",[1829,3228,3229,3242],{},[1832,3230,3231],{},[1835,3232,3233,3236,3239],{},[1838,3234,3235],{},"Course question",[1838,3237,3238],{},"Starting source",[1838,3240,3241],{},"Boundary to remember",[1848,3243,3244,3259,3274,3289,3304,3319,3334],{},[1835,3245,3246,3249,3256],{},[1853,3247,3248],{},"digital market power",[1853,3250,3251],{},[2633,3252,3255],{"href":3253,"rel":3254},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1787\u002F80552a33-en",[2637],"OECD, 2024",[1853,3257,3258],{},"institutions and markets differ",[1835,3260,3261,3264,3271],{},[1853,3262,3263],{},"national accounts",[1853,3265,3266],{},[2633,3267,3270],{"href":3268,"rel":3269},"https:\u002F\u002Funstats.un.org\u002Funsd\u002FNationalaccount\u002Fsna.asp",[2637],"UN 2025 SNA",[1853,3272,3273],{},"measurement convention is not welfare theory",[1835,3275,3276,3279,3286],{},[1853,3277,3278],{},"generative AI and productivity",[1853,3280,3281],{},[2633,3282,3285],{"href":3283,"rel":3284},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1093\u002Fqje\u002Fqjae044",[2637],"Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond, 2025",[1853,3287,3288],{},"one occupation and firm setting",[1835,3290,3291,3294,3301],{},[1853,3292,3293],{},"bank vulnerability",[1853,3295,3296],{},[2633,3297,3300],{"href":3298,"rel":3299},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.federalreserve.gov\u002Fpublications\u002F2023-April-SVB-Key-Takeaways.htm",[2637],"Federal Reserve SVB review, 2023",[1853,3302,3303],{},"case evidence, not a universal failure sequence",[1835,3305,3306,3309,3316],{},[1853,3307,3308],{},"monetary transmission",[1853,3310,3311],{},[2633,3312,3315],{"href":3313,"rel":3314},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ecb.europa.eu\u002Fpress\u002Fkey\u002Fdate\u002F2024\u002Fhtml\u002Fecb.sp240824~c215968c41.en.html",[2637],"ECB, 2024",[1853,3317,3318],{},"transmission varies by balance sheet and episode",[1835,3320,3321,3324,3331],{},[1853,3322,3323],{},"fiscal debt risk",[1853,3325,3326],{},[2633,3327,3330],{"href":3328,"rel":3329},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.imf.org\u002Fen\u002Fpublications\u002Ffm\u002Fissues\u002F2024\u002F10\u002F23\u002Ffiscal-monitor-october-2024",[2637],"IMF, 2024",[1853,3332,3333],{},"forecasts are distributions, not certainties",[1835,3335,3336,3339,3346],{},[1853,3337,3338],{},"exchange-rate pass-through",[1853,3340,3341],{},[2633,3342,3345],{"href":3343,"rel":3344},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5089\u002F9798400269264.001",[2637],"Kemoe et al., 2024",[1853,3347,3348],{},"regional estimates are context-specific",[1793,3350,3352],{"id":3351},"final-check","Final check",[1809,3354,3355,3358,3361,3364,3367],{},[1812,3356,3357],{},"What is the counterfactual?",[1812,3359,3360],{},"Which statement is identity, theory, estimate, or judgment?",[1812,3362,3363],{},"Which assumption drives the result?",[1812,3365,3366],{},"Who gains, who loses, and when?",[1812,3368,3369],{},"What observation would change the conclusion?",[1798,3371,3372],{},"If your answer makes those five items visible, you are doing economics rather than reciting it.",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3374,"depth":3374,"links":3375},2,[3376,3377,3378,3379,3380,3387,3393,3394,3395,3396,3397],{"id":1795,"depth":3374,"text":1796},{"id":1803,"depth":3374,"text":1804},{"id":1826,"depth":3374,"text":1827},{"id":1933,"depth":3374,"text":1934},{"id":1993,"depth":3374,"text":1994,"children":3381},[3382,3384,3385,3386],{"id":1998,"depth":3383,"text":1999},3,{"id":2606,"depth":3383,"text":2607},{"id":2627,"depth":3383,"text":2628},{"id":2645,"depth":3383,"text":2646},{"id":2652,"depth":3374,"text":2653,"children":3388},[3389,3390,3391,3392],{"id":2656,"depth":3383,"text":2657},{"id":2905,"depth":3383,"text":2906},{"id":2913,"depth":3383,"text":2914},{"id":3018,"depth":3383,"text":3019},{"id":3025,"depth":3374,"text":3026},{"id":3104,"depth":3374,"text":3105},{"id":3128,"depth":3374,"text":3129},{"id":3225,"depth":3374,"text":3226},{"id":3351,"depth":3374,"text":3352},"Two evidence-based cases that integrate microeconomics, macroeconomics, policy appraisal, and clear economic writing.","md",null,{},true,{"title":531,"description":3398},"W0mrKN9jm2qpL1yjOPHXMhsgRaZnuDX0npxCd-CTeXI",[3406,3408],{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529,"description":3407,"children":-1},"Trade accounting, nominal and real exchange rates, pass-through, external balances, exchange-rate regimes, and policy constraints.",{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"description":3409,"children":-1},"Define the counterfactual target before selecting data, controls or estimators",1785754726615]