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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Statistics","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics",[1685,1691,1697,1703,1709,1715,1721],{"title":1686,"path":1687,"stem":1688,"children":1689},"第六章：抽样分布","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F01-sampling","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F01-sampling\u002Findex",[1690],{"title":1686,"path":1687,"stem":1688},{"title":1692,"path":1693,"stem":1694,"children":1695},"第七章：区间估计","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F02-interval-estimation","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F02-interval-estimation\u002Findex",[1696],{"title":1692,"path":1693,"stem":1694},{"title":1698,"path":1699,"stem":1700,"children":1701},"第八章：点估计理论","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F03-point-estimation","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F03-point-estimation\u002Findex",[1702],{"title":1698,"path":1699,"stem":1700},{"title":1704,"path":1705,"stem":1706,"children":1707},"第九章：点估计方法","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F04-pe-method","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F04-pe-method\u002Findex",[1708],{"title":1704,"path":1705,"stem":1706},{"title":1710,"path":1711,"stem":1712,"children":1713},"第十章：假设检验原理","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F05-hypothesis","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F05-hypothesis\u002Findex",[1714],{"title":1710,"path":1711,"stem":1712},{"title":1716,"path":1717,"stem":1718,"children":1719},"第十一章：常用检验方法与选择","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F06-hypothesis-method","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F06-hypothesis-method\u002Findex",[1720],{"title":1716,"path":1717,"stem":1718},{"title":1722,"path":1723,"stem":1724,"children":1725},"第十二章：Bootstrap 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策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",{"path":1415},{"id":1784,"title":527,"body":1785,"description":3379,"extension":3380,"features":3381,"hero":3381,"layout":3381,"locale":3381,"meta":3382,"navigation":3381,"path":528,"published":3383,"seo":3384,"stem":529,"__hash__":3385},"docs\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":3354},"minimark",[1788,1792,1797,1801,1805,1808,1824,1828,1831,1952,1960,1963,2047,2050,2055,2059,2062,2130,2147,2152,2163,2354,2361,2367,2371,2374,2552,2569,2575,2722,2725,2729,2732,2809,2812,2816,2820,2824,2831,2834,2838,2845,2862,2865,2869,2875,2886,2892,2896,2900,2903,3090,3093,3097,3100,3104,3154,3157,3169,3176,3180,3183,3186,3272,3275,3278,3295,3299,3302,3323,3327,3344],[1789,1790,527],"h1",{"id":1791},"chapter-11-trade-capital-flows-and-exchange-rates",[1793,1794,1796],"h2",{"id":1795},"core-question","Core question",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"When a currency moves, which prices and quantities change—and why can the same depreciation help exporters, hurt importers, and raise inflation?",[1793,1802,1804],{"id":1803},"learning-outcomes","Learning outcomes",[1798,1806,1807],{},"You will be able to:",[1809,1810,1811,1815,1818,1821],"ul",{},[1812,1813,1814],"li",{},"connect net exports to saving, investment, and capital flows;",[1812,1816,1817],{},"calculate nominal and real exchange-rate changes without reversing the quote;",[1812,1819,1820],{},"trace depreciation through contracts, import prices, inflation, and trade volumes;",[1812,1822,1823],{},"explain purchasing-power parity, exchange-rate regimes, and the policy trilemma.",[1793,1825,1827],{"id":1826},"_1-one-economy-two-cross-border-ledgers","1. One economy, two cross-border ledgers",[1798,1829,1830],{},"Exports are domestic production sold abroad; imports are foreign production bought at home:",[1832,1833,1836],"span",{"className":1834},[1835],"katex-display",[1832,1837,1840,1883],{"className":1838},[1839],"katex",[1832,1841,1844],{"className":1842},[1843],"katex-mathml",[1845,1846,1849],"math",{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1850,1851,1852,1878],"semantics",{},[1853,1854,1855,1859,1862,1866,1868,1871,1874],"mrow",{},[1856,1857,1858],"mi",{},"N",[1856,1860,1861],{},"X",[1863,1864,1865],"mo",{},"=",[1856,1867,1861],{},[1863,1869,1870],{},"−",[1856,1872,1873],{},"M",[1856,1875,1877],{"mathvariant":1876},"normal",".",[1879,1880,1882],"annotation",{"encoding":1881},"application\u002Fx-tex","NX=X-M.",[1832,1884,1888,1919,1940],{"className":1885,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],"katex-html","true",[1832,1889,1892,1897,1903,1907,1912,1916],{"className":1890},[1891],"base",[1832,1893],{"className":1894,"style":1896},[1895],"strut","height:0.6833em;",[1832,1898,1858],{"className":1899,"style":1902},[1900,1901],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.109em;",[1832,1904,1861],{"className":1905,"style":1906},[1900,1901],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[1832,1908],{"className":1909,"style":1911},[1910],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1832,1913,1865],{"className":1914},[1915],"mrel",[1832,1917],{"className":1918,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,1920,1922,1926,1929,1933,1937],{"className":1921},[1891],[1832,1923],{"className":1924,"style":1925},[1895],"height:0.7667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1832,1927,1861],{"className":1928,"style":1906},[1900,1901],[1832,1930],{"className":1931,"style":1932},[1910],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1832,1934,1870],{"className":1935},[1936],"mbin",[1832,1938],{"className":1939,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,1941,1943,1946,1949],{"className":1942},[1891],[1832,1944],{"className":1945,"style":1896},[1895],[1832,1947,1873],{"className":1948,"style":1902},[1900,1901],[1832,1950,1877],{"className":1951},[1900],[1798,1953,1954,1955,1959],{},"Imports are subtracted in ",[1956,1957,1958],"code",{},"Y = C + I + G + NX"," only because they are already counted inside consumption, investment, or government spending. The subtraction removes foreign production; it is not a claim that imports are harmful.",[1798,1961,1962],{},"National accounting also gives:",[1832,1964,1966],{"className":1965},[1835],[1832,1967,1969,1995],{"className":1968},[1839],[1832,1970,1972],{"className":1971},[1843],[1845,1973,1974],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,1975,1976,1992],{},[1853,1977,1978,1981,1983,1986,1988,1990],{},[1856,1979,1980],{},"S",[1863,1982,1870],{},[1856,1984,1985],{},"I",[1863,1987,1865],{},[1856,1989,1858],{},[1856,1991,1861],{},[1879,1993,1994],{"encoding":1881},"S-I=NX",[1832,1996,1998,2017,2035],{"className":1997,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,1999,2001,2004,2008,2011,2014],{"className":2000},[1891],[1832,2002],{"className":2003,"style":1925},[1895],[1832,2005,1980],{"className":2006,"style":2007},[1900,1901],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[1832,2009],{"className":2010,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2012,1870],{"className":2013},[1936],[1832,2015],{"className":2016,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2018,2020,2023,2026,2029,2032],{"className":2019},[1891],[1832,2021],{"className":2022,"style":1896},[1895],[1832,2024,1985],{"className":2025,"style":1906},[1900,1901],[1832,2027],{"className":2028,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2030,1865],{"className":2031},[1915],[1832,2033],{"className":2034,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2036,2038,2041,2044],{"className":2037},[1891],[1832,2039],{"className":2040,"style":1896},[1895],[1832,2042,1858],{"className":2043,"style":1902},[1900,1901],[1832,2045,1861],{"className":2046,"style":1906},[1900,1901],[1798,2048,2049],{},"in a simplified setting. If domestic investment exceeds national saving, the difference is financed from abroad and the country runs an external deficit. This may finance productive capital or fragile consumption; the sign alone cannot tell us which.",[2051,2052,2054],"legacy-details",{"title":2053},"Why financial flows appear on the other side","A current-account deficit is matched, apart from statistical discrepancies and reserve transactions, by net financing from the rest of the world. Every imported good must ultimately be paid for with exports, asset sales, borrowing, transfers, or reserves.",[1793,2056,2058],{"id":2057},"_2-fix-the-quote-before-doing-arithmetic","2. Fix the quote before doing arithmetic",[1798,2060,2061],{},"Let",[1832,2063,2065],{"className":2064},[1835],[1832,2066,2068,2091],{"className":2067},[1839],[1832,2069,2071],{"className":2070},[1843],[1845,2072,2073],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,2074,2075,2088],{},[1853,2076,2077,2080,2082,2086],{},[1856,2078,2079],{},"e",[1863,2081,1865],{},[2083,2084,2085],"mtext",{},"domestic currency per unit of foreign currency",[1856,2087,1877],{"mathvariant":1876},[1879,2089,2090],{"encoding":1881},"e=\\text{domestic currency per unit of foreign currency}.",[1832,2092,2094,2113],{"className":2093,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,2095,2097,2101,2104,2107,2110],{"className":2096},[1891],[1832,2098],{"className":2099,"style":2100},[1895],"height:0.4306em;",[1832,2102,2079],{"className":2103},[1900,1901],[1832,2105],{"className":2106,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2108,1865],{"className":2109},[1915],[1832,2111],{"className":2112,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2114,2116,2120,2127],{"className":2115},[1891],[1832,2117],{"className":2118,"style":2119},[1895],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1832,2121,2124],{"className":2122},[1900,2123],"text",[1832,2125,2085],{"className":2126},[1900],[1832,2128,1877],{"className":2129},[1900],[1798,2131,2132,2133,2135,2136,2140,2141,2143,2144,1877],{},"If ",[1956,2134,2079],{}," rises, foreign currency costs more: the domestic currency ",[2137,2138,2139],"strong",{},"depreciates",". If ",[1956,2142,2079],{}," falls, it ",[2137,2145,2146],{},"appreciates",[2148,2149,2151],"h3",{"id":2150},"worked-example","Worked example",[1798,2153,2154,2155,2158,2159,2162],{},"The pound–dollar quote moves from ",[1956,2156,2157],{},"£0.75\u002F$"," to ",[1956,2160,2161],{},"£0.84\u002F$",":",[1832,2164,2166],{"className":2165},[1835],[1832,2167,2169,2213],{"className":2168},[1839],[1832,2170,2172],{"className":2171},[1843],[1845,2173,2174],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,2175,2176,2210],{},[1853,2177,2178,2194,2197,2200,2202,2205,2208],{},[2179,2180,2181,2192],"mfrac",{},[1853,2182,2183,2187,2189],{},[2184,2185,2186],"mn",{},"0.84",[1863,2188,1870],{},[2184,2190,2191],{},"0.75",[2184,2193,2191],{},[1863,2195,2196],{},"×",[2184,2198,2199],{},"100",[1863,2201,1865],{},[2184,2203,2204],{},"12",[1856,2206,2207],{"mathvariant":1876},"%",[1856,2209,1877],{"mathvariant":1876},[1879,2211,2212],{"encoding":1881},"\\frac{0.84-0.75}{0.75}\\times100=12\\%.",[1832,2214,2216,2324,2343],{"className":2215,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,2217,2219,2223,2315,2318,2321],{"className":2218},[1891],[1832,2220],{"className":2221,"style":2222},[1895],"height:2.0074em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1832,2224,2226,2231,2311],{"className":2225},[1900],[1832,2227],{"className":2228},[2229,2230],"mopen","nulldelimiter",[1832,2232,2234],{"className":2233},[2179],[1832,2235,2239,2302],{"className":2236},[2237,2238],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1832,2240,2243,2297],{"className":2241},[2242],"vlist-r",[1832,2244,2248,2262,2273],{"className":2245,"style":2247},[2246],"vlist","height:1.3214em;",[1832,2249,2251,2256],{"style":2250},"top:-2.314em;",[1832,2252],{"className":2253,"style":2255},[2254],"pstrut","height:3em;",[1832,2257,2259],{"className":2258},[1900],[1832,2260,2191],{"className":2261},[1900],[1832,2263,2265,2268],{"style":2264},"top:-3.23em;",[1832,2266],{"className":2267,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2269],{"className":2270,"style":2272},[2271],"frac-line","border-bottom-width:0.04em;",[1832,2274,2276,2279],{"style":2275},"top:-3.677em;",[1832,2277],{"className":2278,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2280,2282,2285,2288,2291,2294],{"className":2281},[1900],[1832,2283,2186],{"className":2284},[1900],[1832,2286],{"className":2287,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2289,1870],{"className":2290},[1936],[1832,2292],{"className":2293,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2295,2191],{"className":2296},[1900],[1832,2298,2301],{"className":2299},[2300],"vlist-s","​",[1832,2303,2305],{"className":2304},[2242],[1832,2306,2309],{"className":2307,"style":2308},[2246],"height:0.686em;",[1832,2310],{},[1832,2312],{"className":2313},[2314,2230],"mclose",[1832,2316],{"className":2317,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2319,2196],{"className":2320},[1936],[1832,2322],{"className":2323,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2325,2327,2331,2334,2337,2340],{"className":2326},[1891],[1832,2328],{"className":2329,"style":2330},[1895],"height:0.6444em;",[1832,2332,2199],{"className":2333},[1900],[1832,2335],{"className":2336,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2338,1865],{"className":2339},[1915],[1832,2341],{"className":2342,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2344,2346,2350],{"className":2345},[1891],[1832,2347],{"className":2348,"style":2349},[1895],"height:0.8056em;vertical-align:-0.0556em;",[1832,2351,2353],{"className":2352},[1900],"12%.",[1798,2355,2356,2357,2360],{},"The pound has depreciated 12% under this quote. A ",[1956,2358,2359],{},"$100"," input rises from £75 to £84 before hedging, mark-up adjustment, or other costs.",[2362,2363,2364],"blockquote",{},[1798,2365,2366],{},"Never write “the exchange rate increased” without defining the numerator and denominator.",[1793,2368,2370],{"id":2369},"_3-nominal-versus-real-exchange-rates","3. Nominal versus real exchange rates",[1798,2372,2373],{},"The nominal rate converts currencies. The real rate compares goods prices:",[1832,2375,2377],{"className":2376},[1835],[1832,2378,2380,2417],{"className":2379},[1839],[1832,2381,2383],{"className":2382},[1843],[1845,2384,2385],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,2386,2387,2414],{},[1853,2388,2389,2392,2394,2411],{},[1856,2390,2391],{},"q",[1863,2393,1865],{},[2179,2395,2396,2409],{},[1853,2397,2398,2400],{},[1856,2399,2079],{},[2401,2402,2403,2406],"msup",{},[1856,2404,2405],{},"P",[1863,2407,2408],{},"∗",[1856,2410,2405],{},[1863,2412,2413],{"separator":1887},",",[1879,2415,2416],{"encoding":1881},"q=\\frac{eP^*}{P},",[1832,2418,2420,2440],{"className":2419,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,2421,2423,2427,2431,2434,2437],{"className":2422},[1891],[1832,2424],{"className":2425,"style":2426},[1895],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1832,2428,2391],{"className":2429,"style":2430},[1900,1901],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1832,2432],{"className":2433,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2435,1865],{"className":2436},[1915],[1832,2438],{"className":2439,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2441,2443,2447,2548],{"className":2442},[1891],[1832,2444],{"className":2445,"style":2446},[1895],"height:2.0517em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1832,2448,2450,2453,2545],{"className":2449},[1900],[1832,2451],{"className":2452},[2229,2230],[1832,2454,2456],{"className":2455},[2179],[1832,2457,2459,2537],{"className":2458},[2237,2238],[1832,2460,2462,2534],{"className":2461},[2242],[1832,2463,2466,2478,2486],{"className":2464,"style":2465},[2246],"height:1.3657em;",[1832,2467,2468,2471],{"style":2250},[1832,2469],{"className":2470,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2472,2474],{"className":2473},[1900],[1832,2475,2405],{"className":2476,"style":2477},[1900,1901],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[1832,2479,2480,2483],{"style":2264},[1832,2481],{"className":2482,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2484],{"className":2485,"style":2272},[2271],[1832,2487,2488,2491],{"style":2275},[1832,2489],{"className":2490,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2492,2494,2497],{"className":2493},[1900],[1832,2495,2079],{"className":2496},[1900,1901],[1832,2498,2500,2503],{"className":2499},[1900],[1832,2501,2405],{"className":2502,"style":2477},[1900,1901],[1832,2504,2507],{"className":2505},[2506],"msupsub",[1832,2508,2510],{"className":2509},[2237],[1832,2511,2513],{"className":2512},[2242],[1832,2514,2517],{"className":2515,"style":2516},[2246],"height:0.6887em;",[1832,2518,2520,2524],{"style":2519},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1832,2521],{"className":2522,"style":2523},[2254],"height:2.7em;",[1832,2525,2531],{"className":2526},[2527,2528,2529,2530],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1832,2532,2408],{"className":2533},[1936,2530],[1832,2535,2301],{"className":2536},[2300],[1832,2538,2540],{"className":2539},[2242],[1832,2541,2543],{"className":2542,"style":2308},[2246],[1832,2544],{},[1832,2546],{"className":2547},[2314,2230],[1832,2549,2413],{"className":2550},[2551],"mpunct",[1798,2553,2554,2555,2558,2559,2561,2562,2564,2565,2568],{},"where ",[1956,2556,2557],{},"P*"," is the foreign price level and ",[1956,2560,2405],{}," the domestic price level. Under our convention, a rise in ",[1956,2563,2391],{}," is a ",[2137,2566,2567],{},"real depreciation",": foreign goods become more expensive relative to domestic goods.",[1798,2570,2571,2572,2574],{},"Suppose ",[1956,2573,2079],{}," rises 10%, foreign prices rise 2%, and domestic prices rise 6%. Approximately:",[1832,2576,2578],{"className":2577},[1835],[1832,2579,2581,2629],{"className":2580},[1839],[1832,2582,2584],{"className":2583},[1843],[1845,2585,2586],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,2587,2588,2626],{},[1853,2589,2590,2593,2595,2598,2601,2603,2606,2609,2611,2613,2616,2618,2620,2622,2624],{},[1856,2591,2592],{"mathvariant":1876},"Δ",[1856,2594,2391],{},[1863,2596,2597],{},"≈",[2184,2599,2600],{},"10",[1856,2602,2207],{"mathvariant":1876},[1863,2604,2605],{},"+",[2184,2607,2608],{},"2",[1856,2610,2207],{"mathvariant":1876},[1863,2612,1870],{},[2184,2614,2615],{},"6",[1856,2617,2207],{"mathvariant":1876},[1863,2619,1865],{},[2184,2621,2615],{},[1856,2623,2207],{"mathvariant":1876},[1856,2625,1877],{"mathvariant":1876},[1879,2627,2628],{"encoding":1881},"\\Delta q\\approx10\\%+2\\%-6\\%=6\\%.",[1832,2630,2632,2654,2674,2693,2712],{"className":2631,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,2633,2635,2639,2642,2645,2648,2651],{"className":2634},[1891],[1832,2636],{"className":2637,"style":2638},[1895],"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1832,2640,2592],{"className":2641},[1900],[1832,2643,2391],{"className":2644,"style":2430},[1900,1901],[1832,2646],{"className":2647,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2649,2597],{"className":2650},[1915],[1832,2652],{"className":2653,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2655,2657,2661,2665,2668,2671],{"className":2656},[1891],[1832,2658],{"className":2659,"style":2660},[1895],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1832,2662,2664],{"className":2663},[1900],"10%",[1832,2666],{"className":2667,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2669,2605],{"className":2670},[1936],[1832,2672],{"className":2673,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2675,2677,2680,2684,2687,2690],{"className":2676},[1891],[1832,2678],{"className":2679,"style":2660},[1895],[1832,2681,2683],{"className":2682},[1900],"2%",[1832,2685],{"className":2686,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2688,1870],{"className":2689},[1936],[1832,2691],{"className":2692,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,2694,2696,2699,2703,2706,2709],{"className":2695},[1891],[1832,2697],{"className":2698,"style":2349},[1895],[1832,2700,2702],{"className":2701},[1900],"6%",[1832,2704],{"className":2705,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2707,1865],{"className":2708},[1915],[1832,2710],{"className":2711,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,2713,2715,2718],{"className":2714},[1891],[1832,2716],{"className":2717,"style":2349},[1895],[1832,2719,2721],{"className":2720},[1900],"6%.",[1798,2723,2724],{},"Domestic inflation therefore offsets part of the nominal depreciation's competitive effect.",[1793,2726,2728],{"id":2727},"_4-why-currencies-move","4. Why currencies move",[1798,2730,2731],{},"The exchange rate is an asset price shaped by expected future returns and risk, not just today's exports.",[2733,2734,2735,2751],"table",{},[2736,2737,2738],"thead",{},[2739,2740,2741,2745,2748],"tr",{},[2742,2743,2744],"th",{},"Change",[2742,2746,2747],{},"Likely pressure, other things equal",[2742,2749,2750],{},"Why the result may reverse",[2752,2753,2754,2766,2776,2787,2798],"tbody",{},[2739,2755,2756,2760,2763],{},[2757,2758,2759],"td",{},"domestic interest rate rises",[2757,2761,2762],{},"appreciation",[2757,2764,2765],{},"markets expected a larger rise; risk also rises",[2739,2767,2768,2771,2773],{},[2757,2769,2770],{},"stronger foreign demand",[2757,2772,2762],{},[2757,2774,2775],{},"imports or capital outflows rise too",[2739,2777,2778,2781,2784],{},[2757,2779,2780],{},"political\u002Ffinancial risk rises",[2757,2782,2783],{},"depreciation",[2757,2785,2786],{},"controls or intervention limit flows",[2739,2788,2789,2792,2795],{},[2757,2790,2791],{},"expected future depreciation",[2757,2793,2794],{},"depreciation now",[2757,2796,2797],{},"credibility changes expectations",[2739,2799,2800,2803,2806],{},[2757,2801,2802],{},"central bank buys foreign currency",[2757,2804,2805],{},"depreciation pressure",[2757,2807,2808],{},"operation may be sterilised or overwhelmed",[1798,2810,2811],{},"“Other things equal” matters: exchange rates combine many forward-looking forces at once.",[1793,2813,2815],{"id":2814},"_5-trace-depreciation-in-stages","5. Trace depreciation in stages",[2817,2818],"mermaid-diagram",{"code64":2819,"locale":7},"Zmxvd2NoYXJ0IExSCiAgRlhbRG9tZXN0aWMgY3VycmVuY3kgZGVwcmVjaWF0ZXNdIC0tPiBJbXBvcnRbSW1wb3J0ZWQgaW5wdXRzIGFuZCBnb29kcyBjb3N0IG1vcmVdCiAgRlggLS0+IEV4cG9ydFtFeHBvcnQgcHJpY2VzIGJlY29tZSBtb3JlIGNvbXBldGl0aXZlXQogIEltcG9ydCAtLT4gQ1BJW0NvbnN1bWVyIGluZmxhdGlvbiBhbmQgZmlybXMnIGNvc3RzXQogIEV4cG9ydCAtLT4gVm9sdW1lW0V4cG9ydCB2b2x1bWUgbWF5IHJpc2VdCiAgSW1wb3J0IC0tPiBJbXBvcnRWb2xbSW1wb3J0IHZvbHVtZSBtYXkgZmFsbF0KICBWb2x1bWUgLS0+IE5YW05ldCBleHBvcnRzXQogIEltcG9ydFZvbCAtLT4gTlgKICBDUEkgLS0+IFJlYWxJbmNvbWVbUmVhbCBpbmNvbWUgYW5kIG1vbmV0YXJ5IHBvbGljeV0=",[2148,2821,2823],{"id":2822},"the-timing-problem","The timing problem",[1798,2825,2826,2827,2830],{},"Prices can change before quantities. Existing invoices and energy contracts may be in foreign currency, while consumers and firms need time to switch suppliers. The trade balance can therefore worsen first and improve later—the ",[2137,2828,2829],{},"J-curve"," possibility.",[1798,2832,2833],{},"For a depreciation eventually to improve the trade balance, export and import quantities must respond sufficiently to relative prices. Supply capacity, invoicing currency, imported content of exports, and global demand all matter.",[2148,2835,2837],{"id":2836},"firm-level-example","Firm-level example",[1798,2839,2840,2841,2844],{},"A UK manufacturer sells a machine for £10,000 and imports a ",[1956,2842,2843],{},"$4,000"," component.",[1809,2846,2847,2853,2859],{},[1812,2848,2849,2850,2852],{},"At ",[1956,2851,2157],{},", the component costs £3,000.",[1812,2854,2855,2856,2858],{},"After depreciation to ",[1956,2857,2161],{},", it costs £3,360.",[1812,2860,2861],{},"The export price is cheaper in dollars if the pound price stays fixed, but the firm's margin is £360 lower before any quantity response.",[1798,2863,2864],{},"The label “exporter” does not guarantee that a firm benefits; imported inputs can reverse the effect.",[1793,2866,2868],{"id":2867},"_6-exchange-rate-pass-through-is-incomplete-and-uneven","6. Exchange-rate pass-through is incomplete and uneven",[1798,2870,2871,2874],{},[2137,2872,2873],{},"Pass-through"," asks how much an exchange-rate change reaches import prices and then consumer prices. Firms may absorb part in margins, hedge currency risk, use existing inventories, or price in a dominant foreign currency.",[1798,2876,2877,2878,2885],{},"An IMF study using monthly data for sub-Saharan African economies found sizable but heterogeneous inflation effects. Pass-through was larger and more persistent for large or persistent depreciations and varied with exchange-rate regime, resource structure, product-market competition, and monetary credibility (",[2879,2880,2884],"a",{"href":2881,"rel":2882},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.5089\u002F9798400269264.001",[2883],"nofollow","Kemoe et al., 2024",").",[1798,2887,2888,2889],{},"This is regional evidence, not a coefficient to copy into every country. It teaches the right question: ",[2137,2890,2891],{},"which imports, contracts, institutions, and expectations transmit this particular movement?",[1793,2893,2895],{"id":2894},"_7-two-benchmarks-neither-a-daily-forecast","7. Two benchmarks, neither a daily forecast",[2148,2897,2899],{"id":2898},"purchasing-power-parity","Purchasing-power parity",[1798,2901,2902],{},"Relative PPP predicts that a country with persistently higher inflation tends to experience currency depreciation:",[1832,2904,2906],{"className":2905},[1835],[1832,2907,2909,2946],{"className":2908},[1839],[1832,2910,2912],{"className":2911},[1843],[1845,2913,2914],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,2915,2916,2943],{},[1853,2917,2918,2928,2930,2933,2935,2941],{},[2179,2919,2920,2926],{},[1853,2921,2922,2924],{},[1856,2923,2592],{"mathvariant":1876},[1856,2925,2079],{},[1856,2927,2079],{},[1863,2929,2597],{},[1856,2931,2932],{},"π",[1863,2934,1870],{},[2401,2936,2937,2939],{},[1856,2938,2932],{},[1863,2940,2408],{},[1856,2942,1877],{"mathvariant":1876},[1879,2944,2945],{"encoding":1881},"\\frac{\\Delta e}{e}\\approx\\pi-\\pi^*.",[1832,2947,2949,3031,3050],{"className":2948,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,2950,2952,2956,3022,3025,3028],{"className":2951},[1891],[1832,2953],{"className":2954,"style":2955},[1895],"height:2.0463em;vertical-align:-0.686em;",[1832,2957,2959,2962,3019],{"className":2958},[1900],[1832,2960],{"className":2961},[2229,2230],[1832,2963,2965],{"className":2964},[2179],[1832,2966,2968,3011],{"className":2967},[2237,2238],[1832,2969,2971,3008],{"className":2970},[2242],[1832,2972,2975,2986,2994],{"className":2973,"style":2974},[2246],"height:1.3603em;",[1832,2976,2977,2980],{"style":2250},[1832,2978],{"className":2979,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2981,2983],{"className":2982},[1900],[1832,2984,2079],{"className":2985},[1900,1901],[1832,2987,2988,2991],{"style":2264},[1832,2989],{"className":2990,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,2992],{"className":2993,"style":2272},[2271],[1832,2995,2996,2999],{"style":2275},[1832,2997],{"className":2998,"style":2255},[2254],[1832,3000,3002,3005],{"className":3001},[1900],[1832,3003,2592],{"className":3004},[1900],[1832,3006,2079],{"className":3007},[1900,1901],[1832,3009,2301],{"className":3010},[2300],[1832,3012,3014],{"className":3013},[2242],[1832,3015,3017],{"className":3016,"style":2308},[2246],[1832,3018],{},[1832,3020],{"className":3021},[2314,2230],[1832,3023],{"className":3024,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,3026,2597],{"className":3027},[1915],[1832,3029],{"className":3030,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,3032,3034,3038,3041,3044,3047],{"className":3033},[1891],[1832,3035],{"className":3036,"style":3037},[1895],"height:0.6667em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1832,3039,2932],{"className":3040,"style":2430},[1900,1901],[1832,3042],{"className":3043,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,3045,1870],{"className":3046},[1936],[1832,3048],{"className":3049,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,3051,3053,3057,3087],{"className":3052},[1891],[1832,3054],{"className":3055,"style":3056},[1895],"height:0.7387em;",[1832,3058,3060,3063],{"className":3059},[1900],[1832,3061,2932],{"className":3062,"style":2430},[1900,1901],[1832,3064,3066],{"className":3065},[2506],[1832,3067,3069],{"className":3068},[2237],[1832,3070,3072],{"className":3071},[2242],[1832,3073,3075],{"className":3074,"style":3056},[2246],[1832,3076,3078,3081],{"style":3077},"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1832,3079],{"className":3080,"style":2523},[2254],[1832,3082,3084],{"className":3083},[2527,2528,2529,2530],[1832,3085,2408],{"className":3086},[1936,2530],[1832,3088,1877],{"className":3089},[1900],[1798,3091,3092],{},"Transport costs, tariffs, non-traded services, product differences, market power, and capital flows allow large and persistent deviations. PPP is more useful as a long-run benchmark than a short-run trading rule.",[2148,3094,3096],{"id":3095},"interest-parity","Interest parity",[1798,3098,3099],{},"Comparable assets must offer expected returns that compensate for expected currency movement and risk. A high domestic interest rate may therefore signal an attractive return—or expected depreciation and risk. Observing the rate alone is insufficient.",[1793,3101,3103],{"id":3102},"_8-regimes-and-the-policy-trilemma","8. Regimes and the policy trilemma",[2733,3105,3106,3119],{},[2736,3107,3108],{},[2739,3109,3110,3113,3116],{},[2742,3111,3112],{},"Regime",[2742,3114,3115],{},"Main benefit",[2742,3117,3118],{},"Main cost",[2752,3120,3121,3132,3143],{},[2739,3122,3123,3126,3129],{},[2757,3124,3125],{},"floating",[2757,3127,3128],{},"monetary-policy autonomy; shock absorption",[2757,3130,3131],{},"volatility and pass-through",[2739,3133,3134,3137,3140],{},[2757,3135,3136],{},"fixed\u002Fpegged",[2757,3138,3139],{},"nominal anchor; lower conversion uncertainty",[2757,3141,3142],{},"reserves needed; policy constrained",[2739,3144,3145,3148,3151],{},[2757,3146,3147],{},"managed float",[2757,3149,3150],{},"intervention can smooth disorderly moves",[2757,3152,3153],{},"objective and commitment may be unclear",[1798,3155,3156],{},"With sustained capital mobility, a country cannot simultaneously maintain all three:",[3158,3159,3160,3163,3166],"ol",{},[1812,3161,3162],{},"a fixed exchange rate;",[1812,3164,3165],{},"independent monetary policy;",[1812,3167,3168],{},"free capital movement.",[1798,3170,3171,3172,3175],{},"It can reliably choose at most two. This ",[2137,3173,3174],{},"trilemma"," is a constraint, not a ranking of regimes.",[1793,3177,3179],{"id":3178},"_9-running-case-energy-shock-plus-depreciation","9. Running case: energy shock plus depreciation",[1798,3181,3182],{},"Return to the energy-importing economy from Chapter 9. World gas prices rise 40%, while its currency depreciates 10% against the invoicing currency.",[1798,3184,3185],{},"If the changes compound fully, the domestic-currency price factor is:",[1832,3187,3189],{"className":3188},[1835],[1832,3190,3192,3219],{"className":3191},[1839],[1832,3193,3195],{"className":3194},[1843],[1845,3196,3197],{"xmlns":1847,"display":1848},[1850,3198,3199,3216],{},[1853,3200,3201,3204,3206,3209,3211,3214],{},[2184,3202,3203],{},"1.40",[1863,3205,2196],{},[2184,3207,3208],{},"1.10",[1863,3210,1865],{},[2184,3212,3213],{},"1.54",[1863,3215,2413],{"separator":1887},[1879,3217,3218],{"encoding":1881},"1.40\\times1.10=1.54,",[1832,3220,3222,3241,3259],{"className":3221,"ariaHidden":1887},[1886],[1832,3223,3225,3229,3232,3235,3238],{"className":3224},[1891],[1832,3226],{"className":3227,"style":3228},[1895],"height:0.7278em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1832,3230,3203],{"className":3231},[1900],[1832,3233],{"className":3234,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,3236,2196],{"className":3237},[1936],[1832,3239],{"className":3240,"style":1932},[1910],[1832,3242,3244,3247,3250,3253,3256],{"className":3243},[1891],[1832,3245],{"className":3246,"style":2330},[1895],[1832,3248,3208],{"className":3249},[1900],[1832,3251],{"className":3252,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,3254,1865],{"className":3255},[1915],[1832,3257],{"className":3258,"style":1911},[1910],[1832,3260,3262,3266,3269],{"className":3261},[1891],[1832,3263],{"className":3264,"style":3265},[1895],"height:0.8389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1832,3267,3213],{"className":3268},[1900],[1832,3270,2413],{"className":3271},[2551],[1798,3273,3274],{},"or a 54% increase—not 50%. Actual consumer pass-through may be lower because of contracts, taxes, regulated prices, hedging, and margins.",[1798,3276,3277],{},"Diagnosis:",[3158,3279,3280,3283,3286,3289,3292],{},[1812,3281,3282],{},"the import bill and firms' marginal costs rise;",[1812,3284,3285],{},"real household income falls;",[1812,3287,3288],{},"SRAS shifts left and AD may weaken;",[1812,3290,3291],{},"inflation can rise even as output falls;",[1812,3293,3294],{},"fiscal support, rates, reserves, and the exchange regime interact.",[1793,3296,3298],{"id":3297},"practice-external-sector-briefing","Practice: external-sector briefing",[1798,3300,3301],{},"A small economy has a 6% current-account deficit, strong equipment investment, foreign-currency corporate debt, and a 15% depreciation.",[3158,3303,3304,3307,3314,3317,3320],{},[1812,3305,3306],{},"Explain why the deficit is not automatically bad.",[1812,3308,3309,3310,3313],{},"Calculate the domestic cost change of a ",[1956,3311,3312],{},"$2 million"," debt payment.",[1812,3315,3316],{},"Separate export competitiveness from balance-sheet damage.",[1812,3318,3319],{},"Identify two conditions that determine inflation pass-through.",[1812,3321,3322],{},"Recommend data needed before choosing monetary, fiscal, or exchange-market action.",[1793,3324,3326],{"id":3325},"quick-check","Quick check",[1809,3328,3329,3332,3335,3338,3341],{},[1812,3330,3331],{},"Imports are subtracted to isolate domestic production, not to label them harmful.",[1812,3333,3334],{},"Always define an exchange-rate quote before naming appreciation or depreciation.",[1812,3336,3337],{},"Nominal depreciation need not become an equal real depreciation.",[1812,3339,3340],{},"Trade volumes, prices, and balance sheets adjust at different speeds.",[1812,3342,3343],{},"Exchange-rate pass-through and regime choice depend on institutions and context.",[1798,3345,3346,3349,3350,1877],{},[2137,3347,3348],{},"Next:"," ",[2879,3351,3353],{"href":3352},".\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","integrate the course through two evidence-based cases",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3355,"depth":3355,"links":3356},2,[3357,3358,3359,3360,3364,3365,3366,3370,3371,3375,3376,3377,3378],{"id":1795,"depth":3355,"text":1796},{"id":1803,"depth":3355,"text":1804},{"id":1826,"depth":3355,"text":1827},{"id":2057,"depth":3355,"text":2058,"children":3361},[3362],{"id":2150,"depth":3363,"text":2151},3,{"id":2369,"depth":3355,"text":2370},{"id":2727,"depth":3355,"text":2728},{"id":2814,"depth":3355,"text":2815,"children":3367},[3368,3369],{"id":2822,"depth":3363,"text":2823},{"id":2836,"depth":3363,"text":2837},{"id":2867,"depth":3355,"text":2868},{"id":2894,"depth":3355,"text":2895,"children":3372},[3373,3374],{"id":2898,"depth":3363,"text":2899},{"id":3095,"depth":3363,"text":3096},{"id":3102,"depth":3355,"text":3103},{"id":3178,"depth":3355,"text":3179},{"id":3297,"depth":3355,"text":3298},{"id":3325,"depth":3355,"text":3326},"Trade accounting, nominal and real exchange rates, pass-through, external balances, exchange-rate regimes, and policy constraints.","md",null,{},true,{"title":527,"description":3379},"_keBrngOP7kgI55eaCFgATq5zY6apUz2wv8mQHX6Bmc",[3387,3389],{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525,"description":3388,"children":-1},"Government budgets, multipliers, automatic stabilisers, policy design, distribution, and debt dynamics.",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533,"description":3390,"children":-1},"Two evidence-based cases that integrate microeconomics, macroeconomics, policy appraisal, and clear economic writing.",1785754726497]