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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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predictive distribution",[2131,2738,2739],{},"negative log score or CRPS",[2113,2741,2742,2745,2748],{},[2131,2743,2744],{},"volatility",[2131,2746,2747],{},"conditional scale\u002Fvariance",[2131,2749,2750],{},"QLIKE or decision-specific loss",[2113,2752,2753,2756,2759],{},[2131,2754,2755],{},"VaR and ES",[2131,2757,2758],{},"lower-tail risk functionals",[2131,2760,2761],{},"joint strictly consistent score",[1798,2763,2764],{},"A model can win under RMSE and lose under tail loss. That is not a contradiction; the losses reward different decisions.",[1793,2766,2768],{"id":2767},"pseudo-out-of-sample-design","Pseudo-out-of-sample design",[1798,2770,2771,2772,2927],{},"For origins ",[1802,2773,2775,2814],{"className":2774},[1805],[1802,2776,2778],{"className":2777},[1809],[1811,2779,2780],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,2781,2782,2811],{},[1818,2783,2784,2786,2789,2797,2800,2803,2805,2807,2809],{},[1828,2785,1839],{},[1832,2787,2788],{},"=",[1821,2790,2791,2794],{},[1828,2792,2793],{},"T",[2253,2795,2796],{},"0",[1832,2798,2799],{"separator":1826},",",[1832,2801,2802],{},"…",[1832,2804,2799],{"separator":1826},[1828,2806,2793],{},[1832,2808,2240],{},[1828,2810,1845],{},[1853,2812,2813],{"encoding":1855},"t=T_0,\\ldots,T-h",[1802,2815,2817,2835,2918],{"className":2816,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,2818,2820,2823,2826,2829,2832],{"className":2819},[1864],[1802,2821],{"className":2822,"style":2018},[1868],[1802,2824,1839],{"className":2825},[1873,1903],[1802,2827],{"className":2828,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,2830,2788],{"className":2831},[2200],[1802,2833],{"className":2834,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,2836,2838,2842,2885,2889,2893,2897,2900,2903,2906,2909,2912,2915],{"className":2837},[1864],[1802,2839],{"className":2840,"style":2841},[1868],"height:0.8778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1802,2843,2845,2849],{"className":2844},[1873],[1802,2846,2793],{"className":2847,"style":2848},[1873,1903],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[1802,2850,2852],{"className":2851},[1936],[1802,2853,2855,2877],{"className":2854},[1881,1882],[1802,2856,2858,2874],{"className":2857},[1886],[1802,2859,2862],{"className":2860,"style":2861},[1890],"height:0.3011em;",[1802,2863,2865,2868],{"style":2864},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1389em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,2866],{"className":2867,"style":1953},[1898],[1802,2869,2871],{"className":2870},[1957,1958,1959,1960],[1802,2872,2796],{"className":2873},[1873,1960],[1802,2875,1923],{"className":2876},[1922],[1802,2878,2880],{"className":2879},[1886],[1802,2881,2883],{"className":2882,"style":2558},[1890],[1802,2884],{},[1802,2886,2799],{"className":2887},[2888],"mpunct",[1802,2890],{"className":2891,"style":2892},[2195],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[1802,2894,2802],{"className":2895},[2896],"minner",[1802,2898],{"className":2899,"style":2892},[2195],[1802,2901,2799],{"className":2902},[2888],[1802,2904],{"className":2905,"style":2892},[2195],[1802,2907,2793],{"className":2908,"style":2848},[1873,1903],[1802,2910],{"className":2911,"style":2277},[2195],[1802,2913,2240],{"className":2914},[1970],[1802,2916],{"className":2917,"style":2277},[2195],[1802,2919,2921,2924],{"className":2920},[1864],[1802,2922],{"className":2923,"style":2303},[1868],[1802,2925,1845],{"className":2926},[1873,1903],":",[2929,2930,2931,2962,2965,2997,3000],"ol",{},[2027,2932,2933,2934,2058],{},"reconstruct the data available at ",[1802,2935,2937,2950],{"className":2936},[1805],[1802,2938,2940],{"className":2939},[1809],[1811,2941,2942],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,2943,2944,2948],{},[1818,2945,2946],{},[1828,2947,1839],{},[1853,2949,1839],{"encoding":1855},[1802,2951,2953],{"className":2952,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,2954,2956,2959],{"className":2955},[1864],[1802,2957],{"className":2958,"style":2018},[1868],[1802,2960,1839],{"className":2961},[1873,1903],[2027,2963,2964],{},"estimate each model on a rolling or expanding window;",[2027,2966,2967,2968,2996],{},"issue an ",[1802,2969,2971,2984],{"className":2970},[1805],[1802,2972,2974],{"className":2973},[1809],[1811,2975,2976],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,2977,2978,2982],{},[1818,2979,2980],{},[1828,2981,1845],{},[1853,2983,1845],{"encoding":1855},[1802,2985,2987],{"className":2986,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,2988,2990,2993],{"className":2989},[1864],[1802,2991],{"className":2992,"style":2303},[1868],[1802,2994,1845],{"className":2995},[1873,1903],"-step forecast;",[2027,2998,2999],{},"wait for the target according to a stated vintage convention;",[2027,3001,3002],{},"record all model losses at the same origin.",[1798,3004,3005],{},"Use an expanding window when parameters are assumed stable and old data remain informative. Use a rolling window when adaptation to structural change is part of the design. Comparing many window lengths on the final test period turns that period into training data.",[1793,3007,3009],{"id":3008},"comparing-two-forecasts","Comparing two forecasts",[1798,3011,3012],{},"Let",[1802,3014,3017],{"className":3015},[3016],"katex-display",[1802,3018,3020,3109],{"className":3019},[1805],[1802,3021,3023],{"className":3022},[1809],[1811,3024,3026],{"xmlns":1813,"display":3025},"block",[1815,3027,3028,3106],{},[1818,3029,3030,3037,3039,3042,3044,3050,3052,3069,3071,3073,3075,3077,3083,3085,3101,3103],{},[1821,3031,3032,3035],{},[1828,3033,3034],{},"d",[1828,3036,1839],{},[1832,3038,2788],{},[1828,3040,3041],{},"L",[1832,3043,2154],{"stretchy":2153},[1821,3045,3046,3048],{},[1828,3047,2157],{},[1828,3049,1839],{},[1832,3051,2799],{"separator":1826},[1821,3053,3054,3060],{},[1824,3055,3056,3058],{"accent":1826},[1828,3057,1830],{},[1832,3059,1834],{},[1818,3061,3062,3065,3067],{},[2253,3063,3064],{},"1",[1832,3066,2799],{"separator":1826},[1828,3068,1839],{},[1832,3070,2166],{"stretchy":2153},[1832,3072,2240],{},[1828,3074,3041],{},[1832,3076,2154],{"stretchy":2153},[1821,3078,3079,3081],{},[1828,3080,2157],{},[1828,3082,1839],{},[1832,3084,2799],{"separator":1826},[1821,3086,3087,3093],{},[1824,3088,3089,3091],{"accent":1826},[1828,3090,1830],{},[1832,3092,1834],{},[1818,3094,3095,3097,3099],{},[2253,3096,2255],{},[1832,3098,2799],{"separator":1826},[1828,3100,1839],{},[1832,3102,2166],{"stretchy":2153},[1828,3104,3105],{"mathvariant":1848},".",[1853,3107,3108],{"encoding":1855},"d_t=L(y_t,\\hat f_{1,t})-L(y_t,\\hat f_{2,t}).",[1802,3110,3112,3170,3331],{"className":3111,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,3113,3115,3119,3161,3164,3167],{"className":3114},[1864],[1802,3116],{"className":3117,"style":3118},[1868],"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1802,3120,3122,3125],{"className":3121},[1873],[1802,3123,3034],{"className":3124},[1873,1903],[1802,3126,3128],{"className":3127},[1936],[1802,3129,3131,3153],{"className":3130},[1881,1882],[1802,3132,3134,3150],{"className":3133},[1886],[1802,3135,3138],{"className":3136,"style":3137},[1890],"height:0.2806em;",[1802,3139,3141,3144],{"style":3140},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,3142],{"className":3143,"style":1953},[1898],[1802,3145,3147],{"className":3146},[1957,1958,1959,1960],[1802,3148,1839],{"className":3149},[1873,1903,1960],[1802,3151,1923],{"className":3152},[1922],[1802,3154,3156],{"className":3155},[1886],[1802,3157,3159],{"className":3158,"style":2558},[1890],[1802,3160],{},[1802,3162],{"className":3163,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,3165,2788],{"className":3166},[2200],[1802,3168],{"className":3169,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,3171,3173,3177,3180,3183,3223,3226,3229,3319,3322,3325,3328],{"className":3172},[1864],[1802,3174],{"className":3175,"style":3176},[1868],"height:1.244em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1802,3178,3041],{"className":3179},[1873,1903],[1802,3181,2154],{"className":3182},[2187],[1802,3184,3186,3189],{"className":3185},[1873],[1802,3187,2157],{"className":3188,"style":2191},[1873,1903],[1802,3190,3192],{"className":3191},[1936],[1802,3193,3195,3215],{"className":3194},[1881,1882],[1802,3196,3198,3212],{"className":3197},[1886],[1802,3199,3201],{"className":3200,"style":3137},[1890],[1802,3202,3203,3206],{"style":2539},[1802,3204],{"className":3205,"style":1953},[1898],[1802,3207,3209],{"className":3208},[1957,1958,1959,1960],[1802,3210,1839],{"className":3211},[1873,1903,1960],[1802,3213,1923],{"className":3214},[1922],[1802,3216,3218],{"className":3217},[1886],[1802,3219,3221],{"className":3220,"style":2558},[1890],[1802,3222],{},[1802,3224,2799],{"className":3225},[2888],[1802,3227],{"className":3228,"style":2892},[2195],[1802,3230,3232,3274],{"className":3231},[1873],[1802,3233,3235],{"className":3234},[1873,1877],[1802,3236,3238,3266],{"className":3237},[1881,1882],[1802,3239,3241,3263],{"className":3240},[1886],[1802,3242,3244,3252],{"className":3243,"style":1891},[1890],[1802,3245,3246,3249],{"style":1894},[1802,3247],{"className":3248,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,3250,1830],{"className":3251,"style":1904},[1873,1903],[1802,3253,3254,3257],{"style":1907},[1802,3255],{"className":3256,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,3258,3260],{"className":3259,"style":1915},[1914],[1802,3261,1834],{"className":3262},[1873],[1802,3264,1923],{"className":3265},[1922],[1802,3267,3269],{"className":3268},[1886],[1802,3270,3272],{"className":3271,"style":1930},[1890],[1802,3273],{},[1802,3275,3277],{"className":3276},[1936],[1802,3278,3280,3310],{"className":3279},[1881,1882],[1802,3281,3283,3307],{"className":3282},[1886],[1802,3284,3286],{"className":3285,"style":2861},[1890],[1802,3287,3289,3292],{"style":3288},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.1076em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,3290],{"className":3291,"style":1953},[1898],[1802,3293,3295],{"className":3294},[1957,1958,1959,1960],[1802,3296,3298,3301,3304],{"className":3297},[1873,1960],[1802,3299,3064],{"className":3300},[1873,1960],[1802,3302,2799],{"className":3303},[2888,1960],[1802,3305,1839],{"className":3306},[1873,1903,1960],[1802,3308,1923],{"className":3309},[1922],[1802,3311,3313],{"className":3312},[1886],[1802,3314,3317],{"className":3315,"style":3316},[1890],"height:0.2861em;",[1802,3318],{},[1802,3320,2166],{"className":3321},[2218],[1802,3323],{"className":3324,"style":2277},[2195],[1802,3326,2240],{"className":3327},[1970],[1802,3329],{"className":3330,"style":2277},[2195],[1802,3332,3334,3337,3340,3343,3383,3386,3389,3477,3480],{"className":3333},[1864],[1802,3335],{"className":3336,"style":3176},[1868],[1802,3338,3041],{"className":3339},[1873,1903],[1802,3341,2154],{"className":3342},[2187],[1802,3344,3346,3349],{"className":3345},[1873],[1802,3347,2157],{"className":3348,"style":2191},[1873,1903],[1802,3350,3352],{"className":3351},[1936],[1802,3353,3355,3375],{"className":3354},[1881,1882],[1802,3356,3358,3372],{"className":3357},[1886],[1802,3359,3361],{"className":3360,"style":3137},[1890],[1802,3362,3363,3366],{"style":2539},[1802,3364],{"className":3365,"style":1953},[1898],[1802,3367,3369],{"className":3368},[1957,1958,1959,1960],[1802,3370,1839],{"className":3371},[1873,1903,1960],[1802,3373,1923],{"className":3374},[1922],[1802,3376,3378],{"className":3377},[1886],[1802,3379,3381],{"className":3380,"style":2558},[1890],[1802,3382],{},[1802,3384,2799],{"className":3385},[2888],[1802,3387],{"className":3388,"style":2892},[2195],[1802,3390,3392,3434],{"className":3391},[1873],[1802,3393,3395],{"className":3394},[1873,1877],[1802,3396,3398,3426],{"className":3397},[1881,1882],[1802,3399,3401,3423],{"className":3400},[1886],[1802,3402,3404,3412],{"className":3403,"style":1891},[1890],[1802,3405,3406,3409],{"style":1894},[1802,3407],{"className":3408,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,3410,1830],{"className":3411,"style":1904},[1873,1903],[1802,3413,3414,3417],{"style":1907},[1802,3415],{"className":3416,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,3418,3420],{"className":3419,"style":1915},[1914],[1802,3421,1834],{"className":3422},[1873],[1802,3424,1923],{"className":3425},[1922],[1802,3427,3429],{"className":3428},[1886],[1802,3430,3432],{"className":3431,"style":1930},[1890],[1802,3433],{},[1802,3435,3437],{"className":3436},[1936],[1802,3438,3440,3469],{"className":3439},[1881,1882],[1802,3441,3443,3466],{"className":3442},[1886],[1802,3444,3446],{"className":3445,"style":2861},[1890],[1802,3447,3448,3451],{"style":3288},[1802,3449],{"className":3450,"style":1953},[1898],[1802,3452,3454],{"className":3453},[1957,1958,1959,1960],[1802,3455,3457,3460,3463],{"className":3456},[1873,1960],[1802,3458,2255],{"className":3459},[1873,1960],[1802,3461,2799],{"className":3462},[2888,1960],[1802,3464,1839],{"className":3465},[1873,1903,1960],[1802,3467,1923],{"className":3468},[1922],[1802,3470,3472],{"className":3471},[1886],[1802,3473,3475],{"className":3474,"style":3316},[1890],[1802,3476],{},[1802,3478,2166],{"className":3479},[2218],[1802,3481,3105],{"className":3482},[1873],[1798,3484,3485,3486,3574,3575,3582,3583,3644,3645,2927],{},"Then model 2 has lower average loss when ",[1802,3487,3489,3513],{"className":3488},[1805],[1802,3490,3492],{"className":3491},[1809],[1811,3493,3494],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,3495,3496,3510],{},[1818,3497,3498,3505,3508],{},[1824,3499,3500,3502],{"accent":1826},[1828,3501,3034],{},[1832,3503,3504],{},"ˉ",[1832,3506,3507],{},">",[2253,3509,2796],{},[1853,3511,3512],{"encoding":1855},"\\bar d>0",[1802,3514,3516,3564],{"className":3515,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,3517,3519,3523,3555,3558,3561],{"className":3518},[1864],[1802,3520],{"className":3521,"style":3522},[1868],"height:0.8703em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;",[1802,3524,3526],{"className":3525},[1873,1877],[1802,3527,3529],{"className":3528},[1881],[1802,3530,3532],{"className":3531},[1886],[1802,3533,3536,3544],{"className":3534,"style":3535},[1890],"height:0.8312em;",[1802,3537,3538,3541],{"style":1894},[1802,3539],{"className":3540,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,3542,3034],{"className":3543},[1873,1903],[1802,3545,3546,3549],{"style":1907},[1802,3547],{"className":3548,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,3550,3552],{"className":3551,"style":1915},[1914],[1802,3553,3504],{"className":3554},[1873],[1802,3556],{"className":3557,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,3559,3507],{"className":3560},[2200],[1802,3562],{"className":3563,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,3565,3567,3571],{"className":3566},[1864],[1802,3568],{"className":3569,"style":3570},[1868],"height:0.6444em;",[1802,3572,2796],{"className":3573},[1873],". The ",[3576,3577,3581],"a",{"href":3578,"rel":3579},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1080\u002F07350015.1995.10524599",[3580],"nofollow","Diebold–Mariano test"," standardises ",[1802,3584,3586,3604],{"className":3585},[1805],[1802,3587,3589],{"className":3588},[1809],[1811,3590,3591],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,3592,3593,3601],{},[1818,3594,3595],{},[1824,3596,3597,3599],{"accent":1826},[1828,3598,3034],{},[1832,3600,3504],{},[1853,3602,3603],{"encoding":1855},"\\bar 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Multi-step and overlapping forecasts require serial-dependence adjustment. A ",[3576,4081,4084],{"href":4082,"rel":4083},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1002\u002Ffor.70150",[3580],"2026 extension"," develops joint comparison across multiple horizons rather than selecting one favourable horizon after inspection.",[1798,4087,4088,4093],{},[3576,4089,4092],{"href":4090,"rel":4091},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1111\u002Fj.1468-0262.2006.00718.x",[3580],"Giacomini and White"," ask a conditional question: does relative performance vary with the information state? This is often more useful than one full-sample winner when recessions and crises matter.",[1793,4095,4097],{"id":4096},"r-laboratory-mean-forecasts-and-tail-calibration","R laboratory: mean forecasts and tail calibration",[4099,4100],"web-r",{"code64":4101,"layout":4102,"locale":7,"title":4103},"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","vertical","HAC forecast comparison and regime-sensitive VaR coverage",[1798,4105,4106],{},"A positive DM statistic favours the AR forecast under squared loss in this simulation. For VaR, inspect both regimes: overall coverage can conceal too many exceptions in volatile periods and too few in calm periods.",[1793,4108,4110],{"id":4109},"tail-risk-evaluation","Tail-risk evaluation",[1798,4112,4113],{},"For VaR, test at least:",[2024,4115,4116,4153,4159],{},[2027,4117,4118,4122,4123,4152],{},[4119,4120,4121],"strong",{},"unconditional coverage:"," is the exception frequency close to ",[1802,4124,4126,4139],{"className":4125},[1805],[1802,4127,4129],{"className":4128},[1809],[1811,4130,4131],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,4132,4133,4137],{},[1818,4134,4135],{},[1828,4136,1798],{},[1853,4138,1798],{"encoding":1855},[1802,4140,4142],{"className":4141,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,4143,4145,4149],{"className":4144},[1864],[1802,4146],{"className":4147,"style":4148},[1868],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1802,4150,1798],{"className":4151},[1873,1903],"?",[2027,4154,4155,4158],{},[4119,4156,4157],{},"independence:"," do exceptions cluster?",[2027,4160,4161,4164],{},[4119,4162,4163],{},"conditional coverage:"," are both frequency and dynamics acceptable?",[1798,4166,4167,4168,4173],{},"Expected shortfall cannot be validated by counting a single threshold alone. Joint scoring and regression-based tests use both VaR and ES; ",[3576,4169,4172],{"href":4170,"rel":4171},"https:\u002F\u002Farxiv.org\u002Fabs\u002F1507.00244",[3580],"Fissler, Ziegel, and Gneiting"," provide a foundation for comparative backtesting.",[1793,4175,4177],{"id":4176},"finance-versus-economics","Finance versus economics",[2107,4179,4180,4193],{},[2110,4181,4182],{},[2113,4183,4184,4187,4190],{},[2116,4185,4186],{},"Design element",[2116,4188,4189],{},"Finance",[2116,4191,4192],{},"Economics",[2126,4194,4195,4206,4217,4228,4239,4250],{},[2113,4196,4197,4200,4203],{},[2131,4198,4199],{},"origin",[2131,4201,4202],{},"trade\u002Frebalance timestamp",[2131,4204,4205],{},"release date or policy meeting",[2113,4207,4208,4211,4214],{},[2131,4209,4210],{},"target",[2131,4212,4213],{},"return, volatility, quantile, portfolio loss",[2131,4215,4216],{},"growth, inflation, unemployment, recession",[2113,4218,4219,4222,4225],{},[2131,4220,4221],{},"real-world constraint",[2131,4223,4224],{},"cost, turnover, liquidity, capacity",[2131,4226,4227],{},"publication lag, revision, institutional forecast cycle",[2113,4229,4230,4233,4236],{},[2131,4231,4232],{},"benchmark",[2131,4234,4235],{},"historical mean, random walk, implied measure",[2131,4237,4238],{},"AR, no-change, survey, official benchmark",[2113,4240,4241,4244,4247],{},[2131,4242,4243],{},"stress analysis",[2131,4245,4246],{},"crises, volatility regimes, market closures",[2131,4248,4249],{},"recessions, policy regimes, revision episodes",[2113,4251,4252,4255,4258],{},[2131,4253,4254],{},"preferred report",[2131,4256,4257],{},"statistical loss plus economic value",[2131,4259,4260],{},"real-time accuracy plus decision\u002Fstructural limits",[1793,4262,4264],{"id":4263},"what-not-to-conclude","What not to conclude",[2024,4266,4267,4270,4273,4276,4279],{},[2027,4268,4269],{},"A lower RMSE does not imply a profitable strategy.",[2027,4271,4272],{},"Correct unconditional VaR coverage does not imply independent exceptions.",[2027,4274,4275],{},"A forecast winner on revised data need not have won in real time.",[2027,4277,4278],{},"A forecast comparison does not identify a causal mechanism.",[2027,4280,4281],{},"One favourable horizon among many is not confirmatory evidence unless multiplicity was handled.",[1793,4283,4285],{"id":4284},"practice","Practice",[2929,4287,4288,4291,4377],{},[2027,4289,4290],{},"Why must two models be scored on the same origins?",[2027,4292,4293,4294,4376],{},"What does ",[1802,4295,4297,4318],{"className":4296},[1805],[1802,4298,4300],{"className":4299},[1809],[1811,4301,4302],{"xmlns":1813},[1815,4303,4304,4316],{},[1818,4305,4306,4312,4314],{},[1824,4307,4308,4310],{"accent":1826},[1828,4309,3034],{},[1832,4311,3504],{},[1832,4313,3507],{},[2253,4315,2796],{},[1853,4317,3512],{"encoding":1855},[1802,4319,4321,4367],{"className":4320,"ariaHidden":1826},[1860],[1802,4322,4324,4327,4358,4361,4364],{"className":4323},[1864],[1802,4325],{"className":4326,"style":3522},[1868],[1802,4328,4330],{"className":4329},[1873,1877],[1802,4331,4333],{"className":4332},[1881],[1802,4334,4336],{"className":4335},[1886],[1802,4337,4339,4347],{"className":4338,"style":3535},[1890],[1802,4340,4341,4344],{"style":1894},[1802,4342],{"className":4343,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,4345,3034],{"className":4346},[1873,1903],[1802,4348,4349,4352],{"style":1907},[1802,4350],{"className":4351,"style":1899},[1898],[1802,4353,4355],{"className":4354,"style":1915},[1914],[1802,4356,3504],{"className":4357},[1873],[1802,4359],{"className":4360,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,4362,3507],{"className":4363},[2200],[1802,4365],{"className":4366,"style":2196},[2195],[1802,4368,4370,4373],{"className":4369},[1864],[1802,4371],{"className":4372,"style":3570},[1868],[1802,4374,2796],{"className":4375},[1873]," mean under the stated definition?",[2027,4378,4379],{},"When should a rolling window be preferred to an expanding window?",[4381,4382,4384],"legacy-details",{"title":4383},"Answers",[2929,4385,4386,4389,4392],{},[2027,4387,4388],{},"Otherwise differences can reflect unequal evaluation periods rather than forecast quality.",[2027,4390,4391],{},"Model 2 has lower average stated loss.",[2027,4393,4394],{},"When parameter adaptation is part of the prior design and discarding old regimes is substantively defensible.",[1798,4396,4397,4398,3105],{},"Next: ",[3576,4399,466],{"href":4400},"..\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002F",{"title":10,"searchDepth":4402,"depth":4402,"links":4403},2,[4404,4405,4406,4407,4408,4409,4410,4411,4412],{"id":1795,"depth":4402,"text":1796},{"id":2104,"depth":4402,"text":2105},{"id":2767,"depth":4402,"text":2768},{"id":3008,"depth":4402,"text":3009},{"id":4096,"depth":4402,"text":4097},{"id":4109,"depth":4402,"text":4110},{"id":4176,"depth":4402,"text":4177},{"id":4263,"depth":4402,"text":4264},{"id":4284,"depth":4402,"text":4285},"Design honest pseudo-out-of-sample tests for point, density, and tail forecasts with long-run covariance and real-time information.","md",{"sidebar":4416},{"order":4417},8,true,{"title":460,"description":4413},"lGQvDd-_bk_h3raZxFQAbyWfrq-CAiOAZEhgBKBa3-8",[4422,4424],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"description":4423,"children":-1},"Use Kalman prediction and update matrices for latent financial states, macroeconomic nowcasts, missing releases, and ragged edges.",{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"description":4425,"children":-1},"Two self-contained browser labs for financial tail risk and real-time macroeconomic forecasting.",1785754724485]