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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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可视化","\u002Fzh\u002Fplayground\u002F05-chartjs","zh\u002Fplayground\u002F05-chartjs",{"title":1634,"path":1635,"stem":1636,"children":1637},"概率论与数理统计","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002Findex",[1638,1639,1645,1680,1727],{"title":1634,"path":1635,"stem":1636},{"title":1640,"path":1641,"stem":1642,"children":1643},"第零章：概率统计的对象与学习方法","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F00-intro","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[1644],{"title":1640,"path":1641,"stem":1642},{"title":1646,"path":1647,"stem":1648,"children":1649,"page":249},"01 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",[1802,2795,2797,2815],{"className":2796},[1809],[1802,2798,2800],{"className":2799},[1813],[1815,2801,2802],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,2803,2804,2812],{},[1823,2805,2806],{},[1826,2807,2808,2810],{},[1829,2809,1832],{"mathvariant":1831},[1829,2811,1835],{},[1918,2813,2814],{"encoding":1920},"\\boldsymbol\\alpha_t",[1802,2816,2818],{"className":2817,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,2819,2821,2824],{"className":2820},[1929],[1802,2822],{"className":2823,"style":1934},[1933],[1802,2825,2827,2836],{"className":2826},[1938],[1802,2828,2830],{"className":2829},[1938],[1802,2831,2833],{"className":2832},[1938],[1802,2834,1832],{"className":2835},[1938,1948],[1802,2837,2839],{"className":2838},[1952],[1802,2840,2842,2862],{"className":2841},[1956,1957],[1802,2843,2845,2859],{"className":2844},[1961],[1802,2846,2848],{"className":2847,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,2849,2850,2853],{"style":1969},[1802,2851],{"className":2852,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,2854,2856],{"className":2855},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,2857,1835],{"className":2858},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,2860,1990],{"className":2861},[1989],[1802,2863,2865],{"className":2864},[1961],[1802,2866,2868],{"className":2867,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,2869],{}," is not directly observed. The data ",[1802,2872,2874,2892],{"className":2873},[1809],[1802,2875,2877],{"className":2876},[1813],[1815,2878,2879],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,2880,2881,2889],{},[1823,2882,2883],{},[1826,2884,2885,2887],{},[1829,2886,2382],{"mathvariant":2381},[1829,2888,1835],{},[1918,2890,2891],{"encoding":1920},"\\mathbf y_t",[1802,2893,2895],{"className":2894,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,2896,2898,2901],{"className":2897},[1929],[1802,2899],{"className":2900,"style":2452},[1933],[1802,2902,2904,2907],{"className":2903},[1938],[1802,2905,2382],{"className":2906,"style":2460},[1938,2459],[1802,2908,2910],{"className":2909},[1952],[1802,2911,2913,2933],{"className":2912},[1956,1957],[1802,2914,2916,2930],{"className":2915},[1961],[1802,2917,2919],{"className":2918,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,2920,2921,2924],{"style":2475},[1802,2922],{"className":2923,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,2925,2927],{"className":2926},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,2928,1835],{"className":2929},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,2931,1990],{"className":2932},[1989],[1802,2934,2936],{"className":2935},[1961],[1802,2937,2939],{"className":2938,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,2940],{}," are noisy, incomplete measurements of it.",[2943,2944,2945,2958],"table",{},[2946,2947,2948],"thead",{},[2949,2950,2951,2955],"tr",{},[2952,2953,2954],"th",{},"Finance state",[2952,2956,2957],{},"Possible measurements",[2959,2960,2961,2970,2978,2986],"tbody",{},[2949,2962,2963,2967],{},[2964,2965,2966],"td",{},"latent efficient price",[2964,2968,2969],{},"transaction prices from several venues",[2949,2971,2972,2975],{},[2964,2973,2974],{},"time-varying beta",[2964,2976,2977],{},"asset and factor returns",[2949,2979,2980,2983],{},[2964,2981,2982],{},"latent volatility",[2964,2984,2985],{},"returns, realised measures, option-implied measures",[2949,2987,2988,2991],{},[2964,2989,2990],{},"yield-curve factors",[2964,2992,2993],{},"yields at multiple maturities",[2943,2995,2996,3005],{},[2946,2997,2998],{},[2949,2999,3000,3003],{},[2952,3001,3002],{},"Economics state",[2952,3004,2957],{},[2959,3006,3007,3015,3023,3031],{},[2949,3008,3009,3012],{},[2964,3010,3011],{},"current economic activity",[2964,3013,3014],{},"employment, surveys, production, quarterly GDP",[2949,3016,3017,3020],{},[2964,3018,3019],{},"output gap",[2964,3021,3022],{},"output, inflation, unemployment",[2949,3024,3025,3028],{},[2964,3026,3027],{},"common inflation trend",[2964,3029,3030],{},"sectoral price indices and expectations",[2949,3032,3033,3036],{},[2964,3034,3035],{},"potential growth",[2964,3037,3038],{},"noisy and revised national accounts",[1798,3040,3041],{},"The equations are shared. The measurement calendar and substantive interpretation differ.",[1793,3043,3045],{"id":3044},"prediction-and-update","Prediction and update",[1798,3047,3048,3049,3256],{},"Given filtered state 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a_{t-1|t-1},P_{t-1|t-1})",[1802,3114,3116],{"className":3115,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,3117,3119,3123,3126,3188,3191,3194,3253],{"className":3118},[1929],[1802,3120],{"className":3121,"style":3122},[1933],"height:1.1052em;vertical-align:-0.3552em;",[1802,3124,1899],{"className":3125},[2304],[1802,3127,3129,3132],{"className":3128},[1938],[1802,3130,3067],{"className":3131},[1938,2459],[1802,3133,3135],{"className":3134},[1952],[1802,3136,3138,3179],{"className":3137},[1956,1957],[1802,3139,3141,3176],{"className":3140},[1961],[1802,3142,3145],{"className":3143,"style":3144},[1965],"height:0.3448em;",[1802,3146,3148,3151],{"style":3147},"top:-2.5198em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,3149],{"className":3150,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,3152,3154],{"className":3153},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,3155,3157,3160,3163,3167,3170,3173],{"className":3156},[1938,1981],[1802,3158,1835],{"className":3159},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,3161,1857],{"className":3162},[2102,1981],[1802,3164,3166],{"className":3165},[1938,1981],"1∣",[1802,3168,1835],{"className":3169},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,3171,1857],{"className":3172},[2102,1981],[1802,3174,1861],{"className":3175},[1938,1981],[1802,3177,1990],{"className":3178},[1989],[1802,3180,3182],{"className":3181},[1961],[1802,3183,3186],{"className":3184,"style":3185},[1965],"height:0.3552em;",[1802,3187],{},[1802,3189,1882],{"className":3190},[2230],[1802,3192],{"className":3193,"style":2238},[1884],[1802,3195,3197,3200],{"className":3196},[1938],[1802,3198,3091],{"className":3199,"style":2024},[1938,1985],[1802,3201,3203],{"className":3202},[1952],[1802,3204,3206,3245],{"className":3205},[1956,1957],[1802,3207,3209,3242],{"className":3208},[1961],[1802,3210,3212],{"className":3211,"style":3144},[1965],[1802,3213,3215,3218],{"style":3214},"top:-2.5198em;margin-left:-0.1389em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,3216],{"className":3217,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,3219,3221],{"className":3220},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,3222,3224,3227,3230,3233,3236,3239],{"className":3223},[1938,1981],[1802,3225,1835],{"className":3226},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,3228,1857],{"className":3229},[2102,1981],[1802,3231,3166],{"className":3232},[1938,1981],[1802,3234,1835],{"className":3235},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,3237,1857],{"className":3238},[2102,1981],[1802,3240,1861],{"className":3241},[1938,1981],[1802,3243,1990],{"className":3244},[1989],[1802,3246,3248],{"className":3247},[1961],[1802,3249,3251],{"className":3250,"style":3185},[1965],[1802,3252],{},[1802,3254,1914],{"className":3255},[2358],":",[1798,3258,3259],{},[3260,3261,3262],"strong",{},"Predict",[1802,3264,3266],{"className":3265},[1805],[1802,3267,3269,3327],{"className":3268},[1809],[1802,3270,3272],{"className":3271},[1813],[1815,3273,3274],{"xmlns":1817,"display":1818},[1820,3275,3276,3324],{},[1823,3277,3278,3294,3296,3302,3322],{},[1826,3279,3280,3282],{},[1829,3281,3067],{"mathvariant":2381},[1823,3283,3284,3286,3288,3290,3292],{},[1829,3285,1835],{},[1829,3287,3078],{"mathvariant":2438},[1829,3289,1835],{},[1837,3291,1857],{},[1859,3293,1861],{},[1837,3295,1839],{},[1826,3297,3298,3300],{},[1829,3299,1844],{},[1829,3301,1835],{},[1826,3303,3304,3306],{},[1829,3305,3067],{"mathvariant":2381},[1823,3307,3308,3310,3312,3314,3316,3318,3320],{},[1829,3309,1835],{},[1837,3311,1857],{},[1859,3313,1861],{},[1829,3315,3078],{"mathvariant":2438},[1829,3317,1835],{},[1837,3319,1857],{},[1859,3321,1861],{},[1837,3323,1882],{"separator":1881},[1918,3325,3326],{"encoding":1920},"\\mathbf 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a_{t|t}=\\mathbf a_{t|t-1}+K_t\\mathbf v_t,\n\\qquad\nP_{t|t}=P_{t|t-1}-K_tF_tK_t^\\top.",[1802,5010,5012,5076,5147,5300,5370],{"className":5011,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,5013,5015,5018,5067,5070,5073],{"className":5014},[1929],[1802,5016],{"className":5017,"style":3336},[1933],[1802,5019,5021,5024],{"className":5020},[1938],[1802,5022,3067],{"className":5023},[1938,2459],[1802,5025,5027],{"className":5026},[1952],[1802,5028,5030,5059],{"className":5029},[1956,1957],[1802,5031,5033,5056],{"className":5032},[1961],[1802,5034,5036],{"className":5035,"style":3144},[1965],[1802,5037,5038,5041],{"style":3147},[1802,5039],{"className":5040,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5042,5044],{"className":5043},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5045,5047,5050,5053],{"className":5046},[1938,1981],[1802,5048,1835],{"className":5049},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5051,3078],{"className":5052},[1938,1981],[1802,5054,1835],{"className":5055},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5057,1990],{"className":5058},[1989],[1802,5060,5062],{"className":5061},[1961],[1802,5063,5065],{"className":5064,"style":3185},[1965],[1802,5066],{},[1802,5068],{"className":5069,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,5071,1839],{"className":5072},[2007],[1802,5074],{"className":5075,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,5077,5079,5083,5138,5141,5144],{"className":5078},[1929],[1802,5080],{"className":5081,"style":5082},[1933],"height:0.9385em;vertical-align:-0.3552em;",[1802,5084,5086,5089],{"className":5085},[1938],[1802,5087,3067],{"className":5088},[1938,2459],[1802,5090,5092],{"className":5091},[1952],[1802,5093,5095,5130],{"className":5094},[1956,1957],[1802,5096,5098,5127],{"className":5097},[1961],[1802,5099,5101],{"className":5100,"style":3144},[1965],[1802,5102,5103,5106],{"style":3147},[1802,5104],{"className":5105,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5107,5109],{"className":5108},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5110,5112,5115,5118,5121,5124],{"className":5111},[1938,1981],[1802,5113,1835],{"className":5114},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5116,3078],{"className":5117},[1938,1981],[1802,5119,1835],{"className":5120},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5122,1857],{"className":5123},[2102,1981],[1802,5125,1861],{"className":5126},[1938,1981],[1802,5128,1990],{"className":5129},[1989],[1802,5131,5133],{"className":5132},[1961],[1802,5134,5136],{"className":5135,"style":3185},[1965],[1802,5137],{},[1802,5139],{"className":5140,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,5142,1864],{"className":5143},[2102],[1802,5145],{"className":5146,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,5148,5150,5153,5193,5233,5236,5239,5242,5291,5294,5297],{"className":5149},[1929],[1802,5151],{"className":5152,"style":3407},[1933],[1802,5154,5156,5159],{"className":5155},[1938],[1802,5157,4612],{"className":5158,"style":2518},[1938,1985],[1802,5160,5162],{"className":5161},[1952],[1802,5163,5165,5185],{"className":5164},[1956,1957],[1802,5166,5168,5182],{"className":5167},[1961],[1802,5169,5171],{"className":5170,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5172,5173,5176],{"style":2533},[1802,5174],{"className":5175,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5177,5179],{"className":5178},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5180,1835],{"className":5181},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5183,1990],{"className":5184},[1989],[1802,5186,5188],{"className":5187},[1961],[1802,5189,5191],{"className":5190,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5192],{},[1802,5194,5196,5199],{"className":5195},[1938],[1802,5197,4013],{"className":5198,"style":2460},[1938,2459],[1802,5200,5202],{"className":5201},[1952],[1802,5203,5205,5225],{"className":5204},[1956,1957],[1802,5206,5208,5222],{"className":5207},[1961],[1802,5209,5211],{"className":5210,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5212,5213,5216],{"style":2475},[1802,5214],{"className":5215,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5217,5219],{"className":5218},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5220,1835],{"className":5221},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5223,1990],{"className":5224},[1989],[1802,5226,5228],{"className":5227},[1961],[1802,5229,5231],{"className":5230,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5232],{},[1802,5234,1882],{"className":5235},[2230],[1802,5237],{"className":5238,"style":2234},[1884],[1802,5240],{"className":5241,"style":2238},[1884],[1802,5243,5245,5248],{"className":5244},[1938],[1802,5246,3091],{"className":5247,"style":2024},[1938,1985],[1802,5249,5251],{"className":5250},[1952],[1802,5252,5254,5283],{"className":5253},[1956,1957],[1802,5255,5257,5280],{"className":5256},[1961],[1802,5258,5260],{"className":5259,"style":3144},[1965],[1802,5261,5262,5265],{"style":3214},[1802,5263],{"className":5264,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5266,5268],{"className":5267},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5269,5271,5274,5277],{"className":5270},[1938,1981],[1802,5272,1835],{"className":5273},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5275,3078],{"className":5276},[1938,1981],[1802,5278,1835],{"className":5279},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5281,1990],{"className":5282},[1989],[1802,5284,5286],{"className":5285},[1961],[1802,5287,5289],{"className":5288,"style":3185},[1965],[1802,5290],{},[1802,5292],{"className":5293,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,5295,1839],{"className":5296},[2007],[1802,5298],{"className":5299,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,5301,5303,5306,5361,5364,5367],{"className":5302},[1929],[1802,5304],{"className":5305,"style":3407},[1933],[1802,5307,5309,5312],{"className":5308},[1938],[1802,5310,3091],{"className":5311,"style":2024},[1938,1985],[1802,5313,5315],{"className":5314},[1952],[1802,5316,5318,5353],{"className":5317},[1956,1957],[1802,5319,5321,5350],{"className":5320},[1961],[1802,5322,5324],{"className":5323,"style":3144},[1965],[1802,5325,5326,5329],{"style":3214},[1802,5327],{"className":5328,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5330,5332],{"className":5331},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5333,5335,5338,5341,5344,5347],{"className":5334},[1938,1981],[1802,5336,1835],{"className":5337},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5339,3078],{"className":5340},[1938,1981],[1802,5342,1835],{"className":5343},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5345,1857],{"className":5346},[2102,1981],[1802,5348,1861],{"className":5349},[1938,1981],[1802,5351,1990],{"className":5352},[1989],[1802,5354,5356],{"className":5355},[1961],[1802,5357,5359],{"className":5358,"style":3185},[1965],[1802,5360],{},[1802,5362],{"className":5363,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,5365,1857],{"className":5366},[2102],[1802,5368],{"className":5369,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,5371,5373,5376,5416,5456,5507],{"className":5372},[1929],[1802,5374],{"className":5375,"style":3853},[1933],[1802,5377,5379,5382],{"className":5378},[1938],[1802,5380,4612],{"className":5381,"style":2518},[1938,1985],[1802,5383,5385],{"className":5384},[1952],[1802,5386,5388,5408],{"className":5387},[1956,1957],[1802,5389,5391,5405],{"className":5390},[1961],[1802,5392,5394],{"className":5393,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5395,5396,5399],{"style":2533},[1802,5397],{"className":5398,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5400,5402],{"className":5401},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5403,1835],{"className":5404},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5406,1990],{"className":5407},[1989],[1802,5409,5411],{"className":5410},[1961],[1802,5412,5414],{"className":5413,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5415],{},[1802,5417,5419,5422],{"className":5418},[1938],[1802,5420,4056],{"className":5421,"style":2024},[1938,1985],[1802,5423,5425],{"className":5424},[1952],[1802,5426,5428,5448],{"className":5427},[1956,1957],[1802,5429,5431,5445],{"className":5430},[1961],[1802,5432,5434],{"className":5433,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5435,5436,5439],{"style":2039},[1802,5437],{"className":5438,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5440,5442],{"className":5441},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5443,1835],{"className":5444},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5446,1990],{"className":5447},[1989],[1802,5449,5451],{"className":5450},[1961],[1802,5452,5454],{"className":5453,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5455],{},[1802,5457,5459,5462],{"className":5458},[1938],[1802,5460,4612],{"className":5461,"style":2518},[1938,1985],[1802,5463,5465],{"className":5464},[1952],[1802,5466,5468,5499],{"className":5467},[1956,1957],[1802,5469,5471,5496],{"className":5470},[1961],[1802,5472,5474,5485],{"className":5473,"style":3801},[1965],[1802,5475,5476,5479],{"style":4498},[1802,5477],{"className":5478,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5480,5482],{"className":5481},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5483,1835],{"className":5484},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5486,5487,5490],{"style":3816},[1802,5488],{"className":5489,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5491,5493],{"className":5492},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5494,3577],{"className":5495},[1938,1981],[1802,5497,1990],{"className":5498},[1989],[1802,5500,5502],{"className":5501},[1961],[1802,5503,5505],{"className":5504,"style":3835},[1965],[1802,5506],{},[1802,5508,2439],{"className":5509},[1938],[1798,5511,5512],{},"The Kalman gain weights new information by relative uncertainty. A noisy release receives less weight; a precise surprise receives more.",[1793,5514,5516],{"id":5515},"missing-values-are-a-measurement-design","Missing values are a measurement design",[1798,5518,5519,5520,5549,5550,5619,5620,5690,5691,5761],{},"If a series is unavailable at time ",[1802,5521,5523,5536],{"className":5522},[1809],[1802,5524,5526],{"className":5525},[1813],[1815,5527,5528],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5529,5530,5534],{},[1823,5531,5532],{},[1829,5533,1835],{},[1918,5535,1835],{"encoding":1920},[1802,5537,5539],{"className":5538,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,5540,5542,5546],{"className":5541},[1929],[1802,5543],{"className":5544,"style":5545},[1933],"height:0.6151em;",[1802,5547,1835],{"className":5548},[1938,1985],", remove its row from ",[1802,5551,5553,5570],{"className":5552},[1809],[1802,5554,5556],{"className":5555},[1813],[1815,5557,5558],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5559,5560,5568],{},[1823,5561,5562],{},[1826,5563,5564,5566],{},[1829,5565,2382],{"mathvariant":2381},[1829,5567,1835],{},[1918,5569,2891],{"encoding":1920},[1802,5571,5573],{"className":5572,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,5574,5576,5579],{"className":5575},[1929],[1802,5577],{"className":5578,"style":2452},[1933],[1802,5580,5582,5585],{"className":5581},[1938],[1802,5583,2382],{"className":5584,"style":2460},[1938,2459],[1802,5586,5588],{"className":5587},[1952],[1802,5589,5591,5611],{"className":5590},[1956,1957],[1802,5592,5594,5608],{"className":5593},[1961],[1802,5595,5597],{"className":5596,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5598,5599,5602],{"style":2475},[1802,5600],{"className":5601,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5603,5605],{"className":5604},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5606,1835],{"className":5607},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5609,1990],{"className":5610},[1989],[1802,5612,5614],{"className":5613},[1961],[1802,5615,5617],{"className":5616,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5618],{}," and ",[1802,5621,5623,5641],{"className":5622},[1809],[1802,5624,5626],{"className":5625},[1813],[1815,5627,5628],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5629,5630,5638],{},[1823,5631,5632],{},[1826,5633,5634,5636],{},[1829,5635,2391],{},[1829,5637,1835],{},[1918,5639,5640],{"encoding":1920},"Z_t",[1802,5642,5644],{"className":5643,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,5645,5647,5650],{"className":5646},[1929],[1802,5648],{"className":5649,"style":2511},[1933],[1802,5651,5653,5656],{"className":5652},[1938],[1802,5654,2391],{"className":5655,"style":2518},[1938,1985],[1802,5657,5659],{"className":5658},[1952],[1802,5660,5662,5682],{"className":5661},[1956,1957],[1802,5663,5665,5679],{"className":5664},[1961],[1802,5666,5668],{"className":5667,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5669,5670,5673],{"style":2533},[1802,5671],{"className":5672,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5674,5676],{"className":5675},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5677,1835],{"className":5678},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5680,1990],{"className":5681},[1989],[1802,5683,5685],{"className":5684},[1961],[1802,5686,5688],{"className":5687,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5689],{}," and the matching rows and columns from ",[1802,5692,5694,5712],{"className":5693},[1809],[1802,5695,5697],{"className":5696},[1813],[1815,5698,5699],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5700,5701,5709],{},[1823,5702,5703],{},[1826,5704,5705,5707],{},[1829,5706,2431],{},[1829,5708,1835],{},[1918,5710,5711],{"encoding":1920},"H_t",[1802,5713,5715],{"className":5714,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,5716,5718,5721],{"className":5717},[1929],[1802,5719],{"className":5720,"style":2511},[1933],[1802,5722,5724,5727],{"className":5723},[1938],[1802,5725,2431],{"className":5726,"style":2749},[1938,1985],[1802,5728,5730],{"className":5729},[1952],[1802,5731,5733,5753],{"className":5732},[1956,1957],[1802,5734,5736,5750],{"className":5735},[1961],[1802,5737,5739],{"className":5738,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5740,5741,5744],{"style":2764},[1802,5742],{"className":5743,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5745,5747],{"className":5746},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5748,1835],{"className":5749},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5751,1990],{"className":5752},[1989],[1802,5754,5756],{"className":5755},[1961],[1802,5757,5759],{"className":5758,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5760],{},". The state transition still runs.",[1798,5763,5764],{},"This matters in two different ways:",[5766,5767,5768,5775],"ul",{},[5769,5770,5771,5774],"li",{},[3260,5772,5773],{},"Finance:"," markets close at different times, instruments become illiquid, and high-frequency measures are asynchronous.",[5769,5776,5777,5780],{},[3260,5778,5779],{},"Economics:"," releases arrive on different dates, quarterly outcomes are absent in most months, and the latest panel has a ragged edge.",[1798,5782,5783],{},"Imputing future releases before filtering would destroy the information-set interpretation.",[1793,5785,5787],{"id":5786},"mixed-frequency-measurement","Mixed-frequency measurement",[1798,5789,5790,5791,5863],{},"Let monthly latent activity be ",[1802,5792,5794,5813],{"className":5793},[1809],[1802,5795,5797],{"className":5796},[1813],[1815,5798,5799],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5800,5801,5810],{},[1823,5802,5803],{},[1826,5804,5805,5808],{},[1829,5806,5807],{},"x",[1829,5809,1835],{},[1918,5811,5812],{"encoding":1920},"x_t",[1802,5814,5816],{"className":5815,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,5817,5819,5823],{"className":5818},[1929],[1802,5820],{"className":5821,"style":5822},[1933],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1802,5824,5826,5829],{"className":5825},[1938],[1802,5827,5807],{"className":5828},[1938,1985],[1802,5830,5832],{"className":5831},[1952],[1802,5833,5835,5855],{"className":5834},[1956,1957],[1802,5836,5838,5852],{"className":5837},[1961],[1802,5839,5841],{"className":5840,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,5842,5843,5846],{"style":2334},[1802,5844],{"className":5845,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,5847,5849],{"className":5848},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,5850,1835],{"className":5851},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,5853,1990],{"className":5854},[1989],[1802,5856,5858],{"className":5857},[1961],[1802,5859,5861],{"className":5860,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,5862],{}," and define the 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monthly indicator measures",[1802,6196,6198],{"className":6197},[1805],[1802,6199,6201,6281],{"className":6200},[1809],[1802,6202,6204],{"className":6203},[1813],[1815,6205,6206],{"xmlns":1817,"display":1818},[1820,6207,6208,6278],{},[1823,6209,6210,6217,6219,6256,6262,6264,6276],{},[1826,6211,6212,6215],{},[1829,6213,6214],{},"m",[1829,6216,1835],{},[1837,6218,1839],{},[1823,6220,6221,6224,6253],{},[1837,6222,6223],{"fence":1881},"[",[6225,6226,6230],"mtable",{"rowspacing":6227,"columnalign":6228,"columnspacing":6229},"0.16em","center center 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a quarterly average released every third month measures",[1802,6615,6617],{"className":6616},[1805],[1802,6618,6620,6711],{"className":6619},[1809],[1802,6621,6623],{"className":6622},[1813],[1815,6624,6625],{"xmlns":1817,"display":1818},[1820,6626,6627,6708],{},[1823,6628,6629,6636,6638,6686,6692,6694,6706],{},[1826,6630,6631,6634],{},[1829,6632,6633],{},"q",[1829,6635,1835],{},[1837,6637,1839],{},[1823,6639,6640,6642,6684],{},[1837,6641,6223],{"fence":1881},[6225,6643,6644],{"rowspacing":6227,"columnalign":6228,"columnspacing":6229},[6231,6645,6646,6660,6672],{},[6234,6647,6648],{},[6237,6649,6650],{"scriptlevel":1902,"displaystyle":1898},[1823,6651,6652,6654,6657],{},[1859,6653,1861],{},[1829,6655,6656],{"mathvariant":2438},"\u002F",[1859,6658,6659],{},"3",[6234,6661,6662],{},[6237,6663,6664],{"scriptlevel":1902,"displaystyle":1898},[1823,6665,6666,6668,6670],{},[1859,6667,1861],{},[1829,6669,6656],{"mathvariant":2438},[1859,6671,6659],{},[6234,6673,6674],{},[6237,6675,6676],{"scriptlevel":1902,"displaystyle":1898},[1823,6677,6678,6680,6682],{},[1859,6679,1861],{},[1829,6681,6656],{"mathvariant":2438},[1859,6683,6659],{},[1837,6685,6255],{"fence":1881},[1826,6687,6688,6690],{},[1829,6689,1832],{"mathvariant":1831},[1829,6691,1835],{},[1837,6693,1864],{},[1826,6695,6696,6698],{},[1829,6697,2406],{},[1823,6699,6700,6702,6704],{},[1829,6701,6633],{},[1837,6703,1882],{"separator":1881},[1829,6705,1835],{},[1829,6707,2439],{"mathvariant":2438},[1918,6709,6710],{"encoding":1920},"q_t=\n\\begin{bmatrix}1\u002F3&1\u002F3&1\u002F3\\end{bmatrix}\n\\boldsymbol\\alpha_t+\\varepsilon_{q,t}.",[1802,6712,6714,6772,6972],{"className":6713,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,6715,6717,6721,6763,6766,6769],{"className":6716},[1929],[1802,6718],{"className":6719,"style":6720},[1933],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1802,6722,6724,6728],{"className":6723},[1938],[1802,6725,6633],{"className":6726,"style":6727},[1938,1985],"margin-right:0.0359em;",[1802,6729,6731],{"className":6730},[1952],[1802,6732,6734,6755],{"className":6733},[1956,1957],[1802,6735,6737,6752],{"className":6736},[1961],[1802,6738,6740],{"className":6739,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,6741,6743,6746],{"style":6742},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,6744],{"className":6745,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,6747,6749],{"className":6748},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,6750,1835],{"className":6751},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,6753,1990],{"className":6754},[1989],[1802,6756,6758],{"className":6757},[1961],[1802,6759,6761],{"className":6760,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,6762],{},[1802,6764],{"className":6765,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,6767,1839],{"className":6768},[2007],[1802,6770],{"className":6771,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,6773,6775,6778,6914,6917,6963,6966,6969],{"className":6774},[1929],[1802,6776],{"className":6777,"style":6345},[1933],[1802,6779,6781,6787,6908],{"className":6780},[6349],[1802,6782,6784],{"className":6783,"style":6354},[2304,6353],[1802,6785,6223],{"className":6786},[6358,6359],[1802,6788,6790],{"className":6789},[1938],[1802,6791,6793,6828,6831,6834,6868,6871,6874],{"className":6792},[6225],[1802,6794,6796],{"className":6795},[6369],[1802,6797,6799,6820],{"className":6798},[1956,1957],[1802,6800,6802,6817],{"className":6801},[1961],[1802,6803,6805],{"className":6804,"style":6379},[1965],[1802,6806,6807,6810],{"style":6382},[1802,6808],{"className":6809,"style":6386},[1973],[1802,6811,6813],{"className":6812},[1938],[1802,6814,6816],{"className":6815},[1938],"1\u002F3",[1802,6818,1990],{"className":6819},[1989],[1802,6821,6823],{"className":6822},[1961],[1802,6824,6826],{"className":6825,"style":6402},[1965],[1802,6827],{},[1802,6829],{"className":6830,"style":6409},[6408],[1802,6832],{"className":6833,"style":6409},[6408],[1802,6835,6837],{"className":6836},[6369],[1802,6838,6840,6860],{"className":6839},[1956,1957],[1802,6841,6843,6857],{"className":6842},[1961],[1802,6844,6846],{"className":6845,"style":6379},[1965],[1802,6847,6848,6851],{"style":6382},[1802,6849],{"className":6850,"style":6386},[1973],[1802,6852,6854],{"className":6853},[1938],[1802,6855,6816],{"className":6856},[1938],[1802,6858,1990],{"className":6859},[1989],[1802,6861,6863],{"className":6862},[1961],[1802,6864,6866],{"className":6865,"style":6402},[1965],[1802,6867],{},[1802,6869],{"className":6870,"style":6409},[6408],[1802,6872],{"className":6873,"style":6409},[6408],[1802,6875,6877],{"className":6876},[6369],[1802,6878,6880,6900],{"className":6879},[1956,1957],[1802,6881,6883,6897],{"className":6882},[1961],[1802,6884,6886],{"className":6885,"style":6379},[1965],[1802,6887,6888,6891],{"style":6382},[1802,6889],{"className":6890,"style":6386},[1973],[1802,6892,6894],{"className":6893},[1938],[1802,6895,6816],{"className":6896},[1938],[1802,6898,1990],{"className":6899},[1989],[1802,6901,6903],{"className":6902},[1961],[1802,6904,6906],{"className":6905,"style":6402},[1965],[1802,6907],{},[1802,6909,6911],{"className":6910,"style":6354},[2358,6353],[1802,6912,6255],{"className":6913},[6358,6359],[1802,6915],{"className":6916,"style":2238},[1884],[1802,6918,6920,6929],{"className":6919},[1938],[1802,6921,6923],{"className":6922},[1938],[1802,6924,6926],{"className":6925},[1938],[1802,6927,1832],{"className":6928},[1938,1948],[1802,6930,6932],{"className":6931},[1952],[1802,6933,6935,6955],{"className":6934},[1956,1957],[1802,6936,6938,6952],{"className":6937},[1961],[1802,6939,6941],{"className":6940,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,6942,6943,6946],{"style":1969},[1802,6944],{"className":6945,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,6947,6949],{"className":6948},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,6950,1835],{"className":6951},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,6953,1990],{"className":6954},[1989],[1802,6956,6958],{"className":6957},[1961],[1802,6959,6961],{"className":6960,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,6962],{},[1802,6964],{"className":6965,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,6967,1864],{"className":6968},[2102],[1802,6970],{"className":6971,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,6973,6975,6978,7027],{"className":6974},[1929],[1802,6976],{"className":6977,"style":6557},[1933],[1802,6979,6981,6984],{"className":6980},[1938],[1802,6982,2406],{"className":6983},[1938,1985],[1802,6985,6987],{"className":6986},[1952],[1802,6988,6990,7019],{"className":6989},[1956,1957],[1802,6991,6993,7016],{"className":6992},[1961],[1802,6994,6996],{"className":6995,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,6997,6998,7001],{"style":2334},[1802,6999],{"className":7000,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7002,7004],{"className":7003},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7005,7007,7010,7013],{"className":7006},[1938,1981],[1802,7008,6633],{"className":7009,"style":6727},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7011,1882],{"className":7012},[2230,1981],[1802,7014,1835],{"className":7015},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7017,1990],{"className":7018},[1989],[1802,7020,7022],{"className":7021},[1961],[1802,7023,7025],{"className":7024,"style":6605},[1965],[1802,7026],{},[1802,7028,2439],{"className":7029},[1938],[1798,7031,7032,7033,7102],{},"The frequency mismatch is encoded in ",[1802,7034,7036,7053],{"className":7035},[1809],[1802,7037,7039],{"className":7038},[1813],[1815,7040,7041],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7042,7043,7051],{},[1823,7044,7045],{},[1826,7046,7047,7049],{},[1829,7048,2391],{},[1829,7050,1835],{},[1918,7052,5640],{"encoding":1920},[1802,7054,7056],{"className":7055,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7057,7059,7062],{"className":7058},[1929],[1802,7060],{"className":7061,"style":2511},[1933],[1802,7063,7065,7068],{"className":7064},[1938],[1802,7066,2391],{"className":7067,"style":2518},[1938,1985],[1802,7069,7071],{"className":7070},[1952],[1802,7072,7074,7094],{"className":7073},[1956,1957],[1802,7075,7077,7091],{"className":7076},[1961],[1802,7078,7080],{"className":7079,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7081,7082,7085],{"style":2533},[1802,7083],{"className":7084,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7086,7088],{"className":7087},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7089,1835],{"className":7090},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7092,1990],{"className":7093},[1989],[1802,7095,7097],{"className":7096},[1961],[1802,7098,7100],{"className":7099,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7101],{}," rather than erased by filling the quarterly series forward.",[1793,7104,7106],{"id":7105},"r-laboratory-a-ragged-edge-nowcast","R laboratory: a ragged-edge nowcast",[7108,7109],"web-r",{"code64":7110,"layout":7111,"locale":7,"title":7112},"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","vertical","Kalman nowcast with monthly and delayed quarterly measurements",[1798,7114,7115],{},"At month 33 the quarterly release usually reduces uncertainty. At month 36 it is missing, so the filter nowcasts from the monthly indicator and propagated state rather than pretending that GDP has already been observed.",[1793,7117,7119],{"id":7118},"real-time-macroeconomic-nowcasting","Real-time macroeconomic nowcasting",[1798,7121,7122,7128],{},[3067,7123,7127],{"href":7124,"rel":7125},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1016\u002Fj.jmoneco.2008.05.010",[7126],"nofollow","Giannone, Reichlin, and Small"," show how a dynamic-factor framework can update the current-quarter assessment as new releases arrive. A credible nowcast records:",[7130,7131,7132,7135,7138,7212,7215],"ol",{},[5769,7133,7134],{},"the release calendar and vintage;",[5769,7136,7137],{},"the state or factor specification estimated at that date;",[5769,7139,7140,7141,7211],{},"the news component ",[1802,7142,7144,7162],{"className":7143},[1809],[1802,7145,7147],{"className":7146},[1813],[1815,7148,7149],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7150,7151,7159],{},[1823,7152,7153],{},[1826,7154,7155,7157],{},[1829,7156,4013],{"mathvariant":2381},[1829,7158,1835],{},[1918,7160,7161],{"encoding":1920},"\\mathbf v_t",[1802,7163,7165],{"className":7164,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7166,7168,7171],{"className":7167},[1929],[1802,7169],{"className":7170,"style":1934},[1933],[1802,7172,7174,7177],{"className":7173},[1938],[1802,7175,4013],{"className":7176,"style":2460},[1938,2459],[1802,7178,7180],{"className":7179},[1952],[1802,7181,7183,7203],{"className":7182},[1956,1957],[1802,7184,7186,7200],{"className":7185},[1961],[1802,7187,7189],{"className":7188,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7190,7191,7194],{"style":2475},[1802,7192],{"className":7193,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7195,7197],{"className":7196},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7198,1835],{"className":7199},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7201,1990],{"className":7202},[1989],[1802,7204,7206],{"className":7205},[1961],[1802,7207,7209],{"className":7208,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7210],{}," of each release;",[5769,7213,7214],{},"the Kalman weight translating news into the nowcast revision;",[5769,7216,7217],{},"later data revisions separately from model error.",[1798,7219,7220],{},"Evaluating on the latest revised panel answers “How well can final values be reconstructed?” It does not answer “What could have been known in real time?”",[1793,7222,7224],{"id":7223},"finance-interpretation","Finance interpretation",[1798,7226,7227],{},"For a time-varying beta,",[1802,7229,7231],{"className":7230},[1805],[1802,7232,7234,7331],{"className":7233},[1809],[1802,7235,7237],{"className":7236},[1813],[1815,7238,7239],{"xmlns":1817,"display":1818},[1820,7240,7241,7328],{},[1823,7242,7243,7257,7259,7265,7267,7274,7286,7288,7294,7296,7298,7304,7306,7318,7320,7326],{},[1826,7244,7245,7248],{},[1829,7246,7247],{},"r",[1823,7249,7250,7253,7255],{},[1829,7251,7252],{},"i",[1837,7254,1882],{"separator":1881},[1829,7256,1835],{},[1837,7258,1839],{},[1826,7260,7261,7263],{},[1829,7262,1832],{},[1829,7264,1835],{},[1837,7266,1864],{},[1826,7268,7269,7272],{},[1829,7270,7271],{},"β",[1829,7273,1835],{},[1826,7275,7276,7278],{},[1829,7277,7247],{},[1823,7279,7280,7282,7284],{},[1829,7281,6214],{},[1837,7283,1882],{"separator":1881},[1829,7285,1835],{},[1837,7287,1864],{},[1826,7289,7290,7292],{},[1829,7291,2406],{},[1829,7293,1835],{},[1837,7295,1882],{"separator":1881},[1884,7297],{"width":1886},[1826,7299,7300,7302],{},[1829,7301,7271],{},[1829,7303,1835],{},[1837,7305,1839],{},[1826,7307,7308,7310],{},[1829,7309,7271],{},[1823,7311,7312,7314,7316],{},[1829,7313,1835],{},[1837,7315,1857],{},[1859,7317,1861],{},[1837,7319,1864],{},[1826,7321,7322,7324],{},[1829,7323,1876],{},[1829,7325,1835],{},[1829,7327,2439],{"mathvariant":2438},[1918,7329,7330],{"encoding":1920},"r_{i,t}=\\alpha_t+\\beta_t r_{m,t}+\\varepsilon_t,\n\\qquad\n\\beta_t=\\beta_{t-1}+\\eta_t.",[1802,7332,7334,7401,7459,7566,7671,7736],{"className":7333,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7335,7337,7340,7392,7395,7398],{"className":7336},[1929],[1802,7338],{"className":7339,"style":6557},[1933],[1802,7341,7343,7347],{"className":7342},[1938],[1802,7344,7247],{"className":7345,"style":7346},[1938,1985],"margin-right:0.0278em;",[1802,7348,7350],{"className":7349},[1952],[1802,7351,7353,7384],{"className":7352},[1956,1957],[1802,7354,7356,7381],{"className":7355},[1961],[1802,7357,7360],{"className":7358,"style":7359},[1965],"height:0.3117em;",[1802,7361,7363,7366],{"style":7362},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0278em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,7364],{"className":7365,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7367,7369],{"className":7368},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7370,7372,7375,7378],{"className":7371},[1938,1981],[1802,7373,7252],{"className":7374},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7376,1882],{"className":7377},[2230,1981],[1802,7379,1835],{"className":7380},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7382,1990],{"className":7383},[1989],[1802,7385,7387],{"className":7386},[1961],[1802,7388,7390],{"className":7389,"style":6605},[1965],[1802,7391],{},[1802,7393],{"className":7394,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,7396,1839],{"className":7397},[2007],[1802,7399],{"className":7400,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,7402,7404,7408,7450,7453,7456],{"className":7403},[1929],[1802,7405],{"className":7406,"style":7407},[1933],"height:0.7333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1802,7409,7411,7415],{"className":7410},[1938],[1802,7412,1832],{"className":7413,"style":7414},[1938,1985],"margin-right:0.0037em;",[1802,7416,7418],{"className":7417},[1952],[1802,7419,7421,7442],{"className":7420},[1956,1957],[1802,7422,7424,7439],{"className":7423},[1961],[1802,7425,7427],{"className":7426,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7428,7430,7433],{"style":7429},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,7431],{"className":7432,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7434,7436],{"className":7435},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7437,1835],{"className":7438},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7440,1990],{"className":7441},[1989],[1802,7443,7445],{"className":7444},[1961],[1802,7446,7448],{"className":7447,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7449],{},[1802,7451],{"className":7452,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,7454,1864],{"className":7455},[2102],[1802,7457],{"className":7458,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,7460,7462,7466,7508,7557,7560,7563],{"className":7461},[1929],[1802,7463],{"className":7464,"style":7465},[1933],"height:0.9805em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1802,7467,7469,7473],{"className":7468},[1938],[1802,7470,7271],{"className":7471,"style":7472},[1938,1985],"margin-right:0.0528em;",[1802,7474,7476],{"className":7475},[1952],[1802,7477,7479,7500],{"className":7478},[1956,1957],[1802,7480,7482,7497],{"className":7481},[1961],[1802,7483,7485],{"className":7484,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7486,7488,7491],{"style":7487},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0528em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,7489],{"className":7490,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7492,7494],{"className":7493},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7495,1835],{"className":7496},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7498,1990],{"className":7499},[1989],[1802,7501,7503],{"className":7502},[1961],[1802,7504,7506],{"className":7505,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7507],{},[1802,7509,7511,7514],{"className":7510},[1938],[1802,7512,7247],{"className":7513,"style":7346},[1938,1985],[1802,7515,7517],{"className":7516},[1952],[1802,7518,7520,7549],{"className":7519},[1956,1957],[1802,7521,7523,7546],{"className":7522},[1961],[1802,7524,7526],{"className":7525,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7527,7528,7531],{"style":7362},[1802,7529],{"className":7530,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7532,7534],{"className":7533},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7535,7537,7540,7543],{"className":7536},[1938,1981],[1802,7538,6214],{"className":7539},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7541,1882],{"className":7542},[2230,1981],[1802,7544,1835],{"className":7545},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7547,1990],{"className":7548},[1989],[1802,7550,7552],{"className":7551},[1961],[1802,7553,7555],{"className":7554,"style":6605},[1965],[1802,7556],{},[1802,7558],{"className":7559,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,7561,1864],{"className":7562},[2102],[1802,7564],{"className":7565,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,7567,7569,7573,7613,7616,7619,7622,7662,7665,7668],{"className":7568},[1929],[1802,7570],{"className":7571,"style":7572},[1933],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1802,7574,7576,7579],{"className":7575},[1938],[1802,7577,2406],{"className":7578},[1938,1985],[1802,7580,7582],{"className":7581},[1952],[1802,7583,7585,7605],{"className":7584},[1956,1957],[1802,7586,7588,7602],{"className":7587},[1961],[1802,7589,7591],{"className":7590,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7592,7593,7596],{"style":2334},[1802,7594],{"className":7595,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7597,7599],{"className":7598},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7600,1835],{"className":7601},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7603,1990],{"className":7604},[1989],[1802,7606,7608],{"className":7607},[1961],[1802,7609,7611],{"className":7610,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7612],{},[1802,7614,1882],{"className":7615},[2230],[1802,7617],{"className":7618,"style":2234},[1884],[1802,7620],{"className":7621,"style":2238},[1884],[1802,7623,7625,7628],{"className":7624},[1938],[1802,7626,7271],{"className":7627,"style":7472},[1938,1985],[1802,7629,7631],{"className":7630},[1952],[1802,7632,7634,7654],{"className":7633},[1956,1957],[1802,7635,7637,7651],{"className":7636},[1961],[1802,7638,7640],{"className":7639,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7641,7642,7645],{"style":7487},[1802,7643],{"className":7644,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7646,7648],{"className":7647},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7649,1835],{"className":7650},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7652,1990],{"className":7653},[1989],[1802,7655,7657],{"className":7656},[1961],[1802,7658,7660],{"className":7659,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7661],{},[1802,7663],{"className":7664,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,7666,1839],{"className":7667},[2007],[1802,7669],{"className":7670,"style":2003},[1884],[1802,7672,7674,7678,7727,7730,7733],{"className":7673},[1929],[1802,7675],{"className":7676,"style":7677},[1933],"height:0.9028em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1802,7679,7681,7684],{"className":7680},[1938],[1802,7682,7271],{"className":7683,"style":7472},[1938,1985],[1802,7685,7687],{"className":7686},[1952],[1802,7688,7690,7719],{"className":7689},[1956,1957],[1802,7691,7693,7716],{"className":7692},[1961],[1802,7694,7696],{"className":7695,"style":2084},[1965],[1802,7697,7698,7701],{"style":7487},[1802,7699],{"className":7700,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7702,7704],{"className":7703},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7705,7707,7710,7713],{"className":7706},[1938,1981],[1802,7708,1835],{"className":7709},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7711,1857],{"className":7712},[2102,1981],[1802,7714,1861],{"className":7715},[1938,1981],[1802,7717,1990],{"className":7718},[1989],[1802,7720,7722],{"className":7721},[1961],[1802,7723,7725],{"className":7724,"style":2115},[1965],[1802,7726],{},[1802,7728],{"className":7729,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,7731,1864],{"className":7732},[2102],[1802,7734],{"className":7735,"style":2121},[1884],[1802,7737,7739,7742,7782],{"className":7738},[1929],[1802,7740],{"className":7741,"style":6720},[1933],[1802,7743,7745,7748],{"className":7744},[1938],[1802,7746,1876],{"className":7747,"style":6727},[1938,1985],[1802,7749,7751],{"className":7750},[1952],[1802,7752,7754,7774],{"className":7753},[1956,1957],[1802,7755,7757,7771],{"className":7756},[1961],[1802,7758,7760],{"className":7759,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7761,7762,7765],{"style":6742},[1802,7763],{"className":7764,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7766,7768],{"className":7767},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7769,1835],{"className":7770},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7772,1990],{"className":7773},[1989],[1802,7775,7777],{"className":7776},[1961],[1802,7778,7780],{"className":7779,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7781],{},[1802,7783,2439],{"className":7784},[1938],[1798,7786,7787],{},"The filter balances noisy current returns against gradual beta movement. The same warning applies: a filtered beta is a model-dependent latent estimate, not a directly observed characteristic. Trading use additionally requires an execution rule and out-of-sample risk assessment.",[1793,7789,7791],{"id":7790},"smoothing-is-not-forecasting","Smoothing is not forecasting",[5766,7793,7794,7901,7932],{},[5769,7795,7796,7797,7872,7873,2439],{},"Filtering estimates ",[1802,7798,7800,7817],{"className":7799},[1809],[1802,7801,7803],{"className":7802},[1813],[1815,7804,7805],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7806,7807,7815],{},[1823,7808,7809],{},[1826,7810,7811,7813],{},[1829,7812,1832],{"mathvariant":1831},[1829,7814,1835],{},[1918,7816,2814],{"encoding":1920},[1802,7818,7820],{"className":7819,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7821,7823,7826],{"className":7822},[1929],[1802,7824],{"className":7825,"style":1934},[1933],[1802,7827,7829,7838],{"className":7828},[1938],[1802,7830,7832],{"className":7831},[1938],[1802,7833,7835],{"className":7834},[1938],[1802,7836,1832],{"className":7837},[1938,1948],[1802,7839,7841],{"className":7840},[1952],[1802,7842,7844,7864],{"className":7843},[1956,1957],[1802,7845,7847,7861],{"className":7846},[1961],[1802,7848,7850],{"className":7849,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7851,7852,7855],{"style":1969},[1802,7853],{"className":7854,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,7856,7858],{"className":7857},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,7859,1835],{"className":7860},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,7862,1990],{"className":7863},[1989],[1802,7865,7867],{"className":7866},[1961],[1802,7868,7870],{"className":7869,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,7871],{}," using data through ",[1802,7874,7876,7889],{"className":7875},[1809],[1802,7877,7879],{"className":7878},[1813],[1815,7880,7881],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7882,7883,7887],{},[1823,7884,7885],{},[1829,7886,1835],{},[1918,7888,1835],{"encoding":1920},[1802,7890,7892],{"className":7891,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7893,7895,7898],{"className":7894},[1929],[1802,7896],{"className":7897,"style":5545},[1933],[1802,7899,1835],{"className":7900},[1938,1985],[5769,7902,7903,7904,2439],{},"Forecasting estimates a future state using data through ",[1802,7905,7907,7920],{"className":7906},[1809],[1802,7908,7910],{"className":7909},[1813],[1815,7911,7912],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7913,7914,7918],{},[1823,7915,7916],{},[1829,7917,1835],{},[1918,7919,1835],{"encoding":1920},[1802,7921,7923],{"className":7922,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7924,7926,7929],{"className":7925},[1929],[1802,7927],{"className":7928,"style":5545},[1933],[1802,7930,1835],{"className":7931},[1938,1985],[5769,7933,7934],{},"Smoothing estimates a past state using later data.",[1798,7936,7937],{},"Smoothing is valuable for historical decomposition but leaks future information if presented as a real-time signal.",[1793,7939,7941],{"id":7940},"practice","Practice",[7130,7943,7944,8088,8091],{},[5769,7945,7946,7947,8017,8018,8087],{},"What happens to ",[1802,7948,7950,7968],{"className":7949},[1809],[1802,7951,7953],{"className":7952},[1813],[1815,7954,7955],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7956,7957,7965],{},[1823,7958,7959],{},[1826,7960,7961,7963],{},[1829,7962,4612],{},[1829,7964,1835],{},[1918,7966,7967],{"encoding":1920},"K_t",[1802,7969,7971],{"className":7970,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,7972,7974,7977],{"className":7973},[1929],[1802,7975],{"className":7976,"style":2511},[1933],[1802,7978,7980,7983],{"className":7979},[1938],[1802,7981,4612],{"className":7982,"style":2518},[1938,1985],[1802,7984,7986],{"className":7985},[1952],[1802,7987,7989,8009],{"className":7988},[1956,1957],[1802,7990,7992,8006],{"className":7991},[1961],[1802,7993,7995],{"className":7994,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,7996,7997,8000],{"style":2533},[1802,7998],{"className":7999,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,8001,8003],{"className":8002},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,8004,1835],{"className":8005},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,8007,1990],{"className":8008},[1989],[1802,8010,8012],{"className":8011},[1961],[1802,8013,8015],{"className":8014,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,8016],{}," as measurement variance ",[1802,8019,8021,8038],{"className":8020},[1809],[1802,8022,8024],{"className":8023},[1813],[1815,8025,8026],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,8027,8028,8036],{},[1823,8029,8030],{},[1826,8031,8032,8034],{},[1829,8033,2431],{},[1829,8035,1835],{},[1918,8037,5711],{"encoding":1920},[1802,8039,8041],{"className":8040,"ariaHidden":1881},[1925],[1802,8042,8044,8047],{"className":8043},[1929],[1802,8045],{"className":8046,"style":2511},[1933],[1802,8048,8050,8053],{"className":8049},[1938],[1802,8051,2431],{"className":8052,"style":2749},[1938,1985],[1802,8054,8056],{"className":8055},[1952],[1802,8057,8059,8079],{"className":8058},[1956,1957],[1802,8060,8062,8076],{"className":8061},[1961],[1802,8063,8065],{"className":8064,"style":1966},[1965],[1802,8066,8067,8070],{"style":2764},[1802,8068],{"className":8069,"style":1974},[1973],[1802,8071,8073],{"className":8072},[1978,1979,1980,1981],[1802,8074,1835],{"className":8075},[1938,1985,1981],[1802,8077,1990],{"className":8078},[1989],[1802,8080,8082],{"className":8081},[1961],[1802,8083,8085],{"className":8084,"style":1997},[1965],[1802,8086],{}," becomes very large?",[5769,8089,8090],{},"Why does carrying the last quarterly GDP value forward create a false measurement?",[5769,8092,8093],{},"When is a smoothed recession state inappropriate?",[8095,8096,8098],"legacy-details",{"title":8097},"Answers",[7130,8099,8100,8103,8106],{},[5769,8101,8102],{},"The gain on that measurement approaches zero; the filter trusts the state prediction.",[5769,8104,8105],{},"It says the old value is a new observation with artificial precision.",[5769,8107,8108],{},"When evaluating what an analyst could classify or forecast at the historical date.",[1798,8110,8111,8112,2439],{},"Next: ",[3067,8113,460],{"href":8114},"..\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002F",{"title":10,"searchDepth":8116,"depth":8116,"links":8117},2,[8118,8119,8120,8121,8122,8123,8124,8125,8126],{"id":1795,"depth":8116,"text":1796},{"id":3044,"depth":8116,"text":3045},{"id":5515,"depth":8116,"text":5516},{"id":5786,"depth":8116,"text":5787},{"id":7105,"depth":8116,"text":7106},{"id":7118,"depth":8116,"text":7119},{"id":7223,"depth":8116,"text":7224},{"id":7790,"depth":8116,"text":7791},{"id":7940,"depth":8116,"text":7941},"Use Kalman prediction and update matrices for latent financial states, macroeconomic nowcasts, missing releases, and ragged edges.","md",{"sidebar":8130},{"order":8131},7,true,{"title":454,"description":8127},"J3qLW4fXiydYK4XWDJPNLcWxrHkRYtjkEUZ5D_d1ZXg",[8136,8138],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"description":8137,"children":-1},"Separate multivariate forecasting from structural shocks using companion matrices, impact restrictions, and impulse responses.",{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"description":8139,"children":-1},"Design honest pseudo-out-of-sample tests for point, density, and tail forecasts with long-run covariance and real-time information.",1785754724293]