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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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finance, ",[1802,2320,2322,2346],{"className":2321},[1809],[1802,2323,2325],{"className":2324},[1813],[1815,2326,2327],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,2328,2329,2343],{},[1823,2330,2331],{},[1826,2332,2333,2335],{},[1829,2334,1831],{},[1823,2336,2337,2339,2341],{},[1829,2338,1836],{},[1838,2340,1840],{},[1842,2342,1844],{},[1925,2344,2345],{"encoding":1927},"y_{t+1}",[1802,2347,2349],{"className":2348,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,2350,2352,2355],{"className":2351},[1936],[1802,2353],{"className":2354,"style":1941},[1940],[1802,2356,2358,2361],{"className":2357},[1945],[1802,2359,1831],{"className":2360,"style":1950},[1945,1949],[1802,2362,2364],{"className":2363},[1954],[1802,2365,2367,2396],{"className":2366},[1958,1959],[1802,2368,2370,2393],{"className":2369},[1963],[1802,2371,2373],{"className":2372,"style":1968},[1967],[1802,2374,2375,2378],{"style":1971},[1802,2376],{"className":2377,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,2379,2381],{"className":2380},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,2382,2384,2387,2390],{"className":2383},[1945,1983],[1802,2385,1836],{"className":2386},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,2388,1840],{"className":2389},[1993,1983],[1802,2391,1844],{"className":2392},[1945,1983],[1802,2394,2001],{"className":2395},[2000],[1802,2397,2399],{"className":2398},[1963],[1802,2400,2402],{"className":2401,"style":2008},[1967],[1802,2403],{}," may be an excess return and 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a valuation ratio or yield spread.",[2316,2478,2479,2480,2564,2565,2634],{},"In economics, 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may be inflation or output growth and 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a financial or survey indicator.",[1798,2636,2637,2638,2707,2708,2779,2780,2849],{},"The timing is the claim: 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must be available at the forecast origin. A contemporaneous regression of 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on a revised 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is not the same experiment.",[1793,2851,2853],{"id":2852},"matrix-projection","Matrix projection",[1798,2855,2856],{},"Stack the outcomes and dated 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u}=0.",[1802,3867,3869,3935,4128],{"className":3868,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,3870,3872,3876,3926,3929,3932],{"className":3871},[1936],[1802,3873],{"className":3874,"style":3875},[1940],"height:1.1523em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1802,3877,3880],{"className":3878},[1945,3879],"accent",[1802,3881,3883,3917],{"className":3882},[1958,1959],[1802,3884,3886,3914],{"className":3885},[1963],[1802,3887,3890,3900],{"className":3888,"style":3889},[1967],"height:0.9579em;",[1802,3891,3893,3897],{"style":3892},"top:-3em;",[1802,3894],{"className":3895,"style":3896},[1975],"height:3em;",[1802,3898,1855],{"className":3899,"style":2053},[1945,1949],[1802,3901,3903,3906],{"style":3902},"top:-3.2634em;",[1802,3904],{"className":3905,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,3907,3911],{"className":3908,"style":3910},[3909],"accent-body","left:-0.1667em;",[1802,3912,3810],{"className":3913},[1945],[1802,3915,2001],{"className":3916},[2000],[1802,3918,3920],{"className":3919},[1963],[1802,3921,3924],{"className":3922,"style":3923},[1967],"height:0.1944em;",[1802,3925],{},[1802,3927],{"className":3928,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,3930,1847],{"className":3931},[2018],[1802,3933],{"className":3934,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,3936,3938,3942,3945,3976,3979,4015,4044,4047,4050,4053,4056,4085,4119,4122,4125],{"className":3937},[1936],[1802,3939],{"className":3940,"style":3941},[1940],"height:1.1491em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1802,3943,1892],{"className":3944},[2181],[1802,3946,3948,3951],{"className":3947},[1945],[1802,3949,2960],{"className":3950,"style":3406},[1945,1949],[1802,3952,3954],{"className":3953},[1954],[1802,3955,3957],{"className":3956},[1958],[1802,3958,3960],{"className":3959},[1963],[1802,3961,3964],{"className":3962,"style":3963},[1967],"height:0.8991em;",[1802,3965,3967,3970],{"style":3966},"top:-3.113em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1802,3968],{"className":3969,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,3971,3973],{"className":3972},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,3974,3822],{"className":3975},[1945,1983],[1802,3977,2960],{"className":3978,"style":3406},[1945,1949],[1802,3980,3982,3985],{"className":3981},[2292],[1802,3983,1918],{"className":3984},[2292],[1802,3986,3988],{"className":3987},[1954],[1802,3989,3991],{"className":3990},[1958],[1802,3992,3994],{"className":3993},[1963],[1802,3995,3998],{"className":3996,"style":3997},[1967],"height:0.8641em;",[1802,3999,4000,4003],{"style":3966},[1802,4001],{"className":4002,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4004,4006],{"className":4005},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4007,4009,4012],{"className":4008},[1945,1983],[1802,4010,3054],{"className":4011},[1945,1983],[1802,4013,1844],{"className":4014},[1945,1983],[1802,4016,4018,4021],{"className":4017},[1945],[1802,4019,2960],{"className":4020,"style":3406},[1945,1949],[1802,4022,4024],{"className":4023},[1954],[1802,4025,4027],{"className":4026},[1958],[1802,4028,4030],{"className":4029},[1963],[1802,4031,4033],{"className":4032,"style":3963},[1967],[1802,4034,4035,4038],{"style":3966},[1802,4036],{"className":4037,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4039,4041],{"className":4040},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4042,3822],{"className":4043},[1945,1983],[1802,4045,1831],{"className":4046,"style":3079},[1945,3078],[1802,4048,1881],{"className":4049},[2165],[1802,4051],{"className":4052,"style":2169},[1883],[1802,4054],{"className":4055,"style":2173},[1883],[1802,4057,4059,4062],{"className":4058},[1945],[1802,4060,2960],{"className":4061,"style":3406},[1945,1949],[1802,4063,4065],{"className":4064},[1954],[1802,4066,4068],{"className":4067},[1958],[1802,4069,4071],{"className":4070},[1963],[1802,4072,4074],{"className":4073,"style":3963},[1967],[1802,4075,4076,4079],{"style":3966},[1802,4077],{"className":4078,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4080,4082],{"className":4081},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4083,3822],{"className":4084},[1945,1983],[1802,4086,4088],{"className":4087},[1945,3879],[1802,4089,4091],{"className":4090},[1958],[1802,4092,4094],{"className":4093},[1963],[1802,4095,4098,4106],{"className":4096,"style":4097},[1967],"height:0.7079em;",[1802,4099,4100,4103],{"style":3892},[1802,4101],{"className":4102,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,4104,1869],{"className":4105},[1945,3078],[1802,4107,4109,4112],{"style":4108},"top:-3.0134em;",[1802,4110],{"className":4111,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,4113,4116],{"className":4114,"style":4115},[3909],"left:-0.25em;",[1802,4117,3810],{"className":4118},[1945],[1802,4120],{"className":4121,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4123,1847],{"className":4124},[2018],[1802,4126],{"className":4127,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4129,4131,4134],{"className":4130},[1936],[1802,4132],{"className":4133,"style":2308},[1940],[1802,4135,1923],{"className":4136},[1945],[1798,4138,4139,4140,4209],{},"The normal equations establish sample orthogonality. They do not prove that ",[1802,4141,4143,4160],{"className":4142},[1809],[1802,4144,4146],{"className":4145},[1813],[1815,4147,4148],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,4149,4150,4158],{},[1823,4151,4152],{},[1826,4153,4154,4156],{},[1829,4155,1860],{},[1829,4157,1836],{},[1925,4159,2425],{"encoding":1927},[1802,4161,4163],{"className":4162,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,4164,4166,4169],{"className":4165},[1936],[1802,4167],{"className":4168,"style":2435},[1940],[1802,4170,4172,4175],{"className":4171},[1945],[1802,4173,1860],{"className":4174},[1945,1949],[1802,4176,4178],{"className":4177},[1954],[1802,4179,4181,4201],{"className":4180},[1958,1959],[1802,4182,4184,4198],{"className":4183},[1963],[1802,4185,4187],{"className":4186,"style":2072},[1967],[1802,4188,4189,4192],{"style":2075},[1802,4190],{"className":4191,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4193,4195],{"className":4194},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4196,1836],{"className":4197},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4199,2001],{"className":4200},[2000],[1802,4202,4204],{"className":4203},[1963],[1802,4205,4207],{"className":4206,"style":2094},[1967],[1802,4208],{}," was genuinely known, that the relation is stable, or that the forecast has economic value.",[1793,4211,4213],{"id":4212},"why-persistence-changes-inference","Why persistence changes inference",[1798,4215,4216],{},"Predictors such as dividend–price ratios and interest-rate spreads are often well approximated by",[1802,4218,4220],{"className":4219},[1805],[1802,4221,4223,4279],{"className":4222},[1809],[1802,4224,4226],{"className":4225},[1813],[1815,4227,4228],{"xmlns":1817,"display":1818},[1820,4229,4230,4276],{},[1823,4231,4232,4238,4240,4243,4255,4257,4264,4266,4268,4270,4273],{},[1826,4233,4234,4236],{},[1829,4235,1860],{},[1829,4237,1836],{},[1838,4239,1847],{},[1829,4241,4242],{},"ρ",[1826,4244,4245,4247],{},[1829,4246,1860],{},[1823,4248,4249,4251,4253],{},[1829,4250,1836],{},[1838,4252,3054],{},[1842,4254,1844],{},[1838,4256,1840],{},[1826,4258,4259,4262],{},[1829,4260,4261],{},"v",[1829,4263,1836],{},[1838,4265,1881],{"separator":1880},[1883,4267],{"width":1885},[1829,4269,4242],{},[1838,4271,4272],{},"≈",[1842,4274,4275],{},"1.",[1925,4277,4278],{"encoding":1927},"x_t=\\rho x_{t-1}+v_t,\\qquad \\rho\\approx1.",[1802,4280,4282,4337,4405,4473],{"className":4281,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,4283,4285,4288,4328,4331,4334],{"className":4284},[1936],[1802,4286],{"className":4287,"style":2435},[1940],[1802,4289,4291,4294],{"className":4290},[1945],[1802,4292,1860],{"className":4293},[1945,1949],[1802,4295,4297],{"className":4296},[1954],[1802,4298,4300,4320],{"className":4299},[1958,1959],[1802,4301,4303,4317],{"className":4302},[1963],[1802,4304,4306],{"className":4305,"style":2072},[1967],[1802,4307,4308,4311],{"style":2075},[1802,4309],{"className":4310,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4312,4314],{"className":4313},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4315,1836],{"className":4316},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4318,2001],{"className":4319},[2000],[1802,4321,4323],{"className":4322},[1963],[1802,4324,4326],{"className":4325,"style":2094},[1967],[1802,4327],{},[1802,4329],{"className":4330,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4332,1847],{"className":4333},[2018],[1802,4335],{"className":4336,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4338,4340,4344,4347,4396,4399,4402],{"className":4339},[1936],[1802,4341],{"className":4342,"style":4343},[1940],"height:0.7917em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1802,4345,4242],{"className":4346},[1945,1949],[1802,4348,4350,4353],{"className":4349},[1945],[1802,4351,1860],{"className":4352},[1945,1949],[1802,4354,4356],{"className":4355},[1954],[1802,4357,4359,4388],{"className":4358},[1958,1959],[1802,4360,4362,4385],{"className":4361},[1963],[1802,4363,4365],{"className":4364,"style":1968},[1967],[1802,4366,4367,4370],{"style":2075},[1802,4368],{"className":4369,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4371,4373],{"className":4372},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4374,4376,4379,4382],{"className":4375},[1945,1983],[1802,4377,1836],{"className":4378},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4380,3054],{"className":4381},[1993,1983],[1802,4383,1844],{"className":4384},[1945,1983],[1802,4386,2001],{"className":4387},[2000],[1802,4389,4391],{"className":4390},[1963],[1802,4392,4394],{"className":4393,"style":2008},[1967],[1802,4395],{},[1802,4397],{"className":4398,"style":2036},[1883],[1802,4400,1840],{"className":4401},[1993],[1802,4403],{"className":4404,"style":2036},[1883],[1802,4406,4408,4412,4452,4455,4458,4461,4464,4467,4470],{"className":4407},[1936],[1802,4409],{"className":4410,"style":4411},[1940],"height:0.6776em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1802,4413,4415,4418],{"className":4414},[1945],[1802,4416,4261],{"className":4417,"style":1950},[1945,1949],[1802,4419,4421],{"className":4420},[1954],[1802,4422,4424,4444],{"className":4423},[1958,1959],[1802,4425,4427,4441],{"className":4426},[1963],[1802,4428,4430],{"className":4429,"style":2072},[1967],[1802,4431,4432,4435],{"style":1971},[1802,4433],{"className":4434,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4436,4438],{"className":4437},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4439,1836],{"className":4440},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4442,2001],{"className":4443},[2000],[1802,4445,4447],{"className":4446},[1963],[1802,4448,4450],{"className":4449,"style":2094},[1967],[1802,4451],{},[1802,4453,1881],{"className":4454},[2165],[1802,4456],{"className":4457,"style":2169},[1883],[1802,4459],{"className":4460,"style":2173},[1883],[1802,4462,4242],{"className":4463},[1945,1949],[1802,4465],{"className":4466,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4468,4272],{"className":4469},[2018],[1802,4471],{"className":4472,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4474,4476,4479],{"className":4475},[1936],[1802,4477],{"className":4478,"style":2308},[1940],[1802,4480,4275],{"className":4481},[1945],[1798,4483,4484,4485,4555,4556,4626,4627,4634,4635,4640],{},"If ",[1802,4486,4488,4506],{"className":4487},[1809],[1802,4489,4491],{"className":4490},[1813],[1815,4492,4493],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,4494,4495,4503],{},[1823,4496,4497],{},[1826,4498,4499,4501],{},[1829,4500,1869],{},[1829,4502,1836],{},[1925,4504,4505],{"encoding":1927},"u_t",[1802,4507,4509],{"className":4508,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,4510,4512,4515],{"className":4511},[1936],[1802,4513],{"className":4514,"style":2435},[1940],[1802,4516,4518,4521],{"className":4517},[1945],[1802,4519,1869],{"className":4520},[1945,1949],[1802,4522,4524],{"className":4523},[1954],[1802,4525,4527,4547],{"className":4526},[1958,1959],[1802,4528,4530,4544],{"className":4529},[1963],[1802,4531,4533],{"className":4532,"style":2072},[1967],[1802,4534,4535,4538],{"style":2075},[1802,4536],{"className":4537,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4539,4541],{"className":4540},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4542,1836],{"className":4543},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4545,2001],{"className":4546},[2000],[1802,4548,4550],{"className":4549},[1963],[1802,4551,4553],{"className":4552,"style":2094},[1967],[1802,4554],{}," and ",[1802,4557,4559,4577],{"className":4558},[1809],[1802,4560,4562],{"className":4561},[1813],[1815,4563,4564],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,4565,4566,4574],{},[1823,4567,4568],{},[1826,4569,4570,4572],{},[1829,4571,4261],{},[1829,4573,1836],{},[1925,4575,4576],{"encoding":1927},"v_t",[1802,4578,4580],{"className":4579,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,4581,4583,4586],{"className":4582},[1936],[1802,4584],{"className":4585,"style":2435},[1940],[1802,4587,4589,4592],{"className":4588},[1945],[1802,4590,4261],{"className":4591,"style":1950},[1945,1949],[1802,4593,4595],{"className":4594},[1954],[1802,4596,4598,4618],{"className":4597},[1958,1959],[1802,4599,4601,4615],{"className":4600},[1963],[1802,4602,4604],{"className":4603,"style":2072},[1967],[1802,4605,4606,4609],{"style":1971},[1802,4607],{"className":4608,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4610,4612],{"className":4611},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4613,1836],{"className":4614},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4616,2001],{"className":4617},[2000],[1802,4619,4621],{"className":4620},[1963],[1802,4622,4624],{"className":4623,"style":2094},[1967],[1802,4625],{}," are correlated, an unexpectedly high return changes both the dependent variable and the future predictor path. In short samples, the OLS slope can then be biased. ",[4628,4629,4633],"a",{"href":4630,"rel":4631},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nber.org\u002Fpapers\u002Ft0240",[4632],"nofollow","Stambaugh"," derives this problem for return predictability; ",[4628,4636,4639],{"href":4637,"rel":4638},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nber.org\u002Fpapers\u002Fw10026",[4632],"Campbell and Yogo"," develop inference designed for highly persistent regressors.",[1798,4642,4643],{},"Practical response:",[4645,4646,4647,4650,4653,4656,4659],"ol",{},[2316,4648,4649],{},"report the estimated persistence and uncertainty around it;",[2316,4651,4652],{},"use theory-appropriate inference, not only an IID t-test;",[2316,4654,4655],{},"test stability across forecast origins;",[2316,4657,4658],{},"compare genuine out-of-sample performance with a simple benchmark;",[2316,4660,4661],{},"call the result predictive unless a separate identification argument exists.",[1793,4663,4665],{"id":4664},"overlapping-horizons","Overlapping horizons",[1798,4667,4668,4669,4699],{},"For an ",[1802,4670,4672,4686],{"className":4671},[1809],[1802,4673,4675],{"className":4674},[1813],[1815,4676,4677],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,4678,4679,4684],{},[1823,4680,4681],{},[1829,4682,4683],{},"h",[1925,4685,4683],{"encoding":1927},[1802,4687,4689],{"className":4688,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,4690,4692,4696],{"className":4691},[1936],[1802,4693],{"className":4694,"style":4695},[1940],"height:0.6944em;",[1802,4697,4683],{"className":4698},[1945,1949],"-period cumulative target,",[1802,4701,4703],{"className":4702},[1805],[1802,4704,4706,4832],{"className":4705},[1809],[1802,4707,4709],{"className":4708},[1813],[1815,4710,4711],{"xmlns":1817,"display":1818},[1820,4712,4713,4829],{},[1823,4714,4715,4731,4733,4750,4762,4764,4766,4782,4784,4790,4792,4798,4804,4806,4827],{},[1826,4716,4717,4719],{},[1829,4718,1831],{},[1823,4720,4721,4723,4725,4727,4729],{},[1829,4722,1836],{},[1838,4724,1881],{"separator":1880},[1829,4726,1836],{},[1838,4728,1840],{},[1829,4730,4683],{},[1838,4732,1847],{},[4734,4735,4736,4739,4748],"munderover",{},[1838,4737,4738],{},"∑",[1823,4740,4741,4744,4746],{},[1829,4742,4743],{},"j",[1838,4745,1847],{},[1842,4747,1844],{},[1829,4749,4683],{},[1826,4751,4752,4754],{},[1829,4753,1831],{},[1823,4755,4756,4758,4760],{},[1829,4757,1836],{},[1838,4759,1840],{},[1829,4761,4743],{},[1838,4763,1881],{"separator":1880},[1883,4765],{"width":1885},[1826,4767,4768,4770],{},[1829,4769,1831],{},[1823,4771,4772,4774,4776,4778,4780],{},[1829,4773,1836],{},[1838,4775,1881],{"separator":1880},[1829,4777,1836],{},[1838,4779,1840],{},[1829,4781,4683],{},[1838,4783,1847],{},[1826,4785,4786,4788],{},[1829,4787,1850],{},[1829,4789,4683],{},[1838,4791,1840],{},[1826,4793,4794,4796],{},[1829,4795,1855],{},[1829,4797,4683],{},[1826,4799,4800,4802],{},[1829,4801,1860],{},[1829,4803,1836],{},[1838,4805,1840],{},[4807,4808,4809,4811,4819],"msubsup",{},[1829,4810,1869],{},[1823,4812,4813,4815,4817],{},[1829,4814,1836],{},[1838,4816,1840],{},[1829,4818,4683],{},[1823,4820,4821,4823,4825],{},[1838,4822,1892],{"stretchy":1891},[1829,4824,4683],{},[1838,4826,1918],{"stretchy":1891},[1829,4828,3061],{"mathvariant":2928},[1925,4830,4831],{"encoding":1927},"y_{t,t+h}=\\sum_{j=1}^h y_{t+j},\n\\qquad\ny_{t,t+h}=\\alpha_h+\\beta_hx_t+u_{t+h}^{(h)}.",[1802,4833,4835,4908,5116,5173,5269],{"className":4834,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,4836,4838,4842,4899,4902,4905],{"className":4837},[1936],[1802,4839],{"className":4840,"style":4841},[1940],"height:0.7167em;vertical-align:-0.2861em;",[1802,4843,4845,4848],{"className":4844},[1945],[1802,4846,1831],{"className":4847,"style":1950},[1945,1949],[1802,4849,4851],{"className":4850},[1954],[1802,4852,4854,4890],{"className":4853},[1958,1959],[1802,4855,4857,4887],{"className":4856},[1963],[1802,4858,4861],{"className":4859,"style":4860},[1967],"height:0.3361em;",[1802,4862,4863,4866],{"style":1971},[1802,4864],{"className":4865,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,4867,4869],{"className":4868},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4870,4872,4875,4878,4881,4884],{"className":4871},[1945,1983],[1802,4873,1836],{"className":4874},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4876,1881],{"className":4877},[2165,1983],[1802,4879,1836],{"className":4880},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4882,1840],{"className":4883},[1993,1983],[1802,4885,4683],{"className":4886},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4888,2001],{"className":4889},[2000],[1802,4891,4893],{"className":4892},[1963],[1802,4894,4897],{"className":4895,"style":4896},[1967],"height:0.2861em;",[1802,4898],{},[1802,4900],{"className":4901,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4903,1847],{"className":4904},[2018],[1802,4906],{"className":4907,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,4909,4911,4915,4990,4993,5043,5046,5049,5052,5107,5110,5113],{"className":4910},[1936],[1802,4912],{"className":4913,"style":4914},[1940],"height:3.2499em;vertical-align:-1.4138em;",[1802,4916,4920],{"className":4917},[4918,4919],"mop","op-limits",[1802,4921,4923,4981],{"className":4922},[1958,1959],[1802,4924,4926,4978],{"className":4925},[1963],[1802,4927,4930,4953,4966],{"className":4928,"style":4929},[1967],"height:1.8361em;",[1802,4931,4933,4937],{"style":4932},"top:-1.8723em;margin-left:0em;",[1802,4934],{"className":4935,"style":4936},[1975],"height:3.05em;",[1802,4938,4940],{"className":4939},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4941,4943,4947,4950],{"className":4942},[1945,1983],[1802,4944,4743],{"className":4945,"style":4946},[1945,1949,1983],"margin-right:0.0572em;",[1802,4948,1847],{"className":4949},[2018,1983],[1802,4951,1844],{"className":4952},[1945,1983],[1802,4954,4956,4959],{"style":4955},"top:-3.05em;",[1802,4957],{"className":4958,"style":4936},[1975],[1802,4960,4961],{},[1802,4962,4738],{"className":4963},[4918,4964,4965],"op-symbol","large-op",[1802,4967,4969,4972],{"style":4968},"top:-4.3em;margin-left:0em;",[1802,4970],{"className":4971,"style":4936},[1975],[1802,4973,4975],{"className":4974},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,4976,4683],{"className":4977},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,4979,2001],{"className":4980},[2000],[1802,4982,4984],{"className":4983},[1963],[1802,4985,4988],{"className":4986,"style":4987},[1967],"height:1.4138em;",[1802,4989],{},[1802,4991],{"className":4992,"style":2173},[1883],[1802,4994,4996,4999],{"className":4995},[1945],[1802,4997,1831],{"className":4998,"style":1950},[1945,1949],[1802,5000,5002],{"className":5001},[1954],[1802,5003,5005,5035],{"className":5004},[1958,1959],[1802,5006,5008,5032],{"className":5007},[1963],[1802,5009,5012],{"className":5010,"style":5011},[1967],"height:0.3117em;",[1802,5013,5014,5017],{"style":1971},[1802,5015],{"className":5016,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,5018,5020],{"className":5019},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,5021,5023,5026,5029],{"className":5022},[1945,1983],[1802,5024,1836],{"className":5025},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5027,1840],{"className":5028},[1993,1983],[1802,5030,4743],{"className":5031,"style":4946},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5033,2001],{"className":5034},[2000],[1802,5036,5038],{"className":5037},[1963],[1802,5039,5041],{"className":5040,"style":4896},[1967],[1802,5042],{},[1802,5044,1881],{"className":5045},[2165],[1802,5047],{"className":5048,"style":2169},[1883],[1802,5050],{"className":5051,"style":2173},[1883],[1802,5053,5055,5058],{"className":5054},[1945],[1802,5056,1831],{"className":5057,"style":1950},[1945,1949],[1802,5059,5061],{"className":5060},[1954],[1802,5062,5064,5099],{"className":5063},[1958,1959],[1802,5065,5067,5096],{"className":5066},[1963],[1802,5068,5070],{"className":5069,"style":4860},[1967],[1802,5071,5072,5075],{"style":1971},[1802,5073],{"className":5074,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,5076,5078],{"className":5077},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,5079,5081,5084,5087,5090,5093],{"className":5080},[1945,1983],[1802,5082,1836],{"className":5083},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5085,1881],{"className":5086},[2165,1983],[1802,5088,1836],{"className":5089},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5091,1840],{"className":5092},[1993,1983],[1802,5094,4683],{"className":5095},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5097,2001],{"className":5098},[2000],[1802,5100,5102],{"className":5101},[1963],[1802,5103,5105],{"className":5104,"style":4896},[1967],[1802,5106],{},[1802,5108],{"className":5109,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,5111,1847],{"className":5112},[2018],[1802,5114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outcomes share ",[1802,5356,5358,5376],{"className":5357},[1809],[1802,5359,5361],{"className":5360},[1813],[1815,5362,5363],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5364,5365,5373],{},[1823,5366,5367,5369,5371],{},[1829,5368,4683],{},[1838,5370,3054],{},[1842,5372,1844],{},[1925,5374,5375],{"encoding":1927},"h-1",[1802,5377,5379,5398],{"className":5378,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,5380,5382,5386,5389,5392,5395],{"className":5381},[1936],[1802,5383],{"className":5384,"style":5385},[1940],"height:0.7778em;vertical-align:-0.0833em;",[1802,5387,4683],{"className":5388},[1945,1949],[1802,5390],{"className":5391,"style":2036},[1883],[1802,5393,3054],{"className":5394},[1993],[1802,5396],{"className":5397,"style":2036},[1883],[1802,5399,5401,5404],{"className":5400},[1936],[1802,5402],{"className":5403,"style":2308},[1940],[1802,5405,1844],{"className":5406},[1945]," observations. Even if one-period innovations are independent, ",[1802,5409,5411,5443],{"className":5410},[1809],[1802,5412,5414],{"className":5413},[1813],[1815,5415,5416],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5417,5418,5440],{},[1823,5419,5420],{},[4807,5421,5422,5424,5432],{},[1829,5423,1869],{},[1823,5425,5426,5428,5430],{},[1829,5427,1836],{},[1838,5429,1840],{},[1829,5431,4683],{},[1823,5433,5434,5436,5438],{},[1838,5435,1892],{"stretchy":1891},[1829,5437,4683],{},[1838,5439,1918],{"stretchy":1891},[1925,5441,5442],{"encoding":1927},"u_{t+h}^{(h)}",[1802,5444,5446],{"className":5445,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,5447,5449,5452],{"className":5448},[1936],[1802,5450],{"className":5451,"style":5275},[1940],[1802,5453,5455,5458],{"className":5454},[1945],[1802,5456,1869],{"className":5457},[1945,1949],[1802,5459,5461],{"className":5460},[1954],[1802,5462,5464,5513],{"className":5463},[1958,1959],[1802,5465,5467,5510],{"className":5466},[1963],[1802,5468,5470,5490],{"className":5469,"style":5294},[1967],[1802,5471,5472,5475],{"style":5297},[1802,5473],{"className":5474,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,5476,5478],{"className":5477},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,5479,5481,5484,5487],{"className":5480},[1945,1983],[1802,5482,1836],{"className":5483},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5485,1840],{"className":5486},[1993,1983],[1802,5488,4683],{"className":5489},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5491,5492,5495],{"style":5318},[1802,5493],{"className":5494,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,5496,5498],{"className":5497},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,5499,5501,5504,5507],{"className":5500},[1945,1983],[1802,5502,1892],{"className":5503},[2181,1983],[1802,5505,4683],{"className":5506},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5508,1918],{"className":5509},[2292,1983],[1802,5511,2001],{"className":5512},[2000],[1802,5514,5516],{"className":5515},[1963],[1802,5517,5519],{"className":5518,"style":5346},[1967],[1802,5520],{}," is serially correlated. The coefficient may remain an OLS projection, but the IID covariance formula is wrong.",[1793,5523,5525],{"id":5524},"hac-covariance-in-matrix-form","HAC covariance in matrix form",[1798,5527,5528,5529,5633,5634,5847],{},"Let ",[1802,5530,5532,5554],{"className":5531},[1809],[1802,5533,5535],{"className":5534},[1813],[1815,5536,5537],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5538,5539,5551],{},[1823,5540,5541],{},[1826,5542,5543,5549],{},[3804,5544,5545,5547],{"accent":1880},[1829,5546,1869],{},[1838,5548,3810],{},[1829,5550,1836],{},[1925,5552,5553],{"encoding":1927},"\\hat u_t",[1802,5555,5557],{"className":5556,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,5558,5560,5564],{"className":5559},[1936],[1802,5561],{"className":5562,"style":5563},[1940],"height:0.8444em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1802,5565,5567,5599],{"className":5566},[1945],[1802,5568,5570],{"className":5569},[1945,3879],[1802,5571,5573],{"className":5572},[1958],[1802,5574,5576],{"className":5575},[1963],[1802,5577,5579,5587],{"className":5578,"style":4695},[1967],[1802,5580,5581,5584],{"style":3892},[1802,5582],{"className":5583,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,5585,1869],{"className":5586},[1945,1949],[1802,5588,5589,5592],{"style":3892},[1802,5590],{"className":5591,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,5593,5596],{"className":5594,"style":5595},[3909],"left:-0.2222em;",[1802,5597,3810],{"className":5598},[1945],[1802,5600,5602],{"className":5601},[1954],[1802,5603,5605,5625],{"className":5604},[1958,1959],[1802,5606,5608,5622],{"className":5607},[1963],[1802,5609,5611],{"className":5610,"style":2072},[1967],[1802,5612,5613,5616],{"style":2075},[1802,5614],{"className":5615,"style":1976},[1975],[1802,5617,5619],{"className":5618},[1980,1981,1982,1983],[1802,5620,1836],{"className":5621},[1945,1949,1983],[1802,5623,2001],{"className":5624},[2000],[1802,5626,5628],{"className":5627},[1963],[1802,5629,5631],{"className":5630,"style":2094},[1967],[1802,5632],{}," be the residual and ",[1802,5635,5637,5674],{"className":5636},[1809],[1802,5638,5640],{"className":5639},[1813],[1815,5641,5642],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,5643,5644,5671],{},[1823,5645,5646,5653,5655,5661],{},[1826,5647,5648,5651],{},[1829,5649,5650],{"mathvariant":2874},"g",[1829,5652,1836],{},[1838,5654,1847],{},[1826,5656,5657,5659],{},[1829,5658,1860],{"mathvariant":2874},[1829,5660,1836],{},[1826,5662,5663,5669],{},[3804,5664,5665,5667],{"accent":1880},[1829,5666,1869],{},[1838,5668,3810],{},[1829,5670,1836],{},[1925,5672,5673],{"encoding":1927},"\\mathbf g_t=\\mathbf x_t\\hat 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is the matrix form of the ",[4628,7248,7251],{"href":7249,"rel":7250},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nber.org\u002Fpapers\u002Ft0055",[4632],"Newey–West estimator",". HAC repairs a covariance estimate under stated dependence conditions; it does not repair look-ahead bias, unstable coefficients, a bad transformation, or data mining.",[1793,7254,7256],{"id":7255},"r-laboratory-overlapping-forecasts","R laboratory: overlapping forecasts",[7258,7259],"web-r",{"code64":7260,"layout":7261,"locale":7,"title":7262},"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","vertical","OLS and Newey-West covariance for overlapping outcomes",[1798,7264,7265],{},"The lag-one residual correlation should be large because outcomes overlap. The HAC and IID standard errors therefore need not agree. The final two values verify the projection and covariance algebra.",[1793,7267,7269],{"id":7268},"finance-and-economics-same-regression-different-audit","Finance and economics: same regression, different audit",[7271,7272,7273,7289],"table",{},[7274,7275,7276],"thead",{},[7277,7278,7279,7283,7286],"tr",{},[7280,7281,7282],"th",{},"Audit question",[7280,7284,7285],{},"Finance",[7280,7287,7288],{},"Economics",[7290,7291,7292,7304,7315,7326,7337],"tbody",{},[7277,7293,7294,7298,7301],{},[7295,7296,7297],"td",{},"target",[7295,7299,7300],{},"excess return, premium, volatility, or spread change",[7295,7302,7303],{},"growth, inflation, unemployment, recession",[7277,7305,7306,7309,7312],{},[7295,7307,7308],{},"predictor timing",[7295,7310,7311],{},"close, rebalance, and execution time",[7295,7313,7314],{},"release calendar and vintage",[7277,7316,7317,7320,7323],{},[7295,7318,7319],{},"friction",[7295,7321,7322],{},"turnover, costs, shorting, capacity",[7295,7324,7325],{},"publication lag and revisions",[7277,7327,7328,7331,7334],{},[7295,7329,7330],{},"benchmark",[7295,7332,7333],{},"historical mean or market-implied forecast",[7295,7335,7336],{},"AR benchmark, survey, or institutional forecast",[7277,7338,7339,7342,7345],{},[7295,7340,7341],{},"value",[7295,7343,7344],{},"certainty equivalent, utility, tail loss",[7295,7346,7347],{},"real-time RMSE, density score, decision relevance",[1793,7349,7351],{"id":7350},"practice","Practice",[4645,7353,7354,7410,7485],{},[2316,7355,7356,7357,7409],{},"For a 12-month rolling return sampled monthly, why is ",[1802,7358,7360,7378],{"className":7359},[1809],[1802,7361,7363],{"className":7362},[1813],[1815,7364,7365],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7366,7367,7375],{},[1823,7368,7369,7371,7373],{},[1829,7370,6248],{},[1838,7372,1847],{},[1842,7374,2897],{},[1925,7376,7377],{"encoding":1927},"L=0",[1802,7379,7381,7400],{"className":7380,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,7382,7384,7388,7391,7394,7397],{"className":7383},[1936],[1802,7385],{"className":7386,"style":7387},[1940],"height:0.6833em;",[1802,7389,6248],{"className":7390},[1945,1949],[1802,7392],{"className":7393,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,7395,1847],{"className":7396},[2018],[1802,7398],{"className":7399,"style":2014},[1883],[1802,7401,7403,7406],{"className":7402},[1936],[1802,7404],{"className":7405,"style":2308},[1940],[1802,7407,2897],{"className":7408},[1945]," indefensible?",[2316,7411,4484,7412,7484],{},[1802,7413,7415,7433],{"className":7414},[1809],[1802,7416,7418],{"className":7417},[1813],[1815,7419,7420],{"xmlns":1817},[1820,7421,7422,7430],{},[1823,7423,7424],{},[3804,7425,7426,7428],{"accent":1880},[1829,7427,1855],{},[1838,7429,3810],{},[1925,7431,7432],{"encoding":1927},"\\hat\\beta",[1802,7434,7436],{"className":7435,"ariaHidden":1880},[1932],[1802,7437,7439,7442],{"className":7438},[1936],[1802,7440],{"className":7441,"style":3875},[1940],[1802,7443,7445],{"className":7444},[1945,3879],[1802,7446,7448,7476],{"className":7447},[1958,1959],[1802,7449,7451,7473],{"className":7450},[1963],[1802,7452,7454,7462],{"className":7453,"style":3889},[1967],[1802,7455,7456,7459],{"style":3892},[1802,7457],{"className":7458,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,7460,1855],{"className":7461,"style":2053},[1945,1949],[1802,7463,7464,7467],{"style":3902},[1802,7465],{"className":7466,"style":3896},[1975],[1802,7468,7470],{"className":7469,"style":3910},[3909],[1802,7471,3810],{"className":7472},[1945],[1802,7474,2001],{"className":7475},[2000],[1802,7477,7479],{"className":7478},[1963],[1802,7480,7482],{"className":7481,"style":3923},[1967],[1802,7483],{}," is significant in-sample but loses to the historical mean out-of-sample, what is supported?",[2316,7486,7487],{},"Why can adding the final revised value of a leading indicator inflate performance?",[7489,7490,7492],"legacy-details",{"title":7491},"Answers",[4645,7493,7494,7497,7500],{},[2316,7495,7496],{},"Adjacent targets share eleven monthly returns, creating serial dependence.",[2316,7498,7499],{},"At most an in-sample projection relation; useful forecast improvement has not been shown.",[2316,7501,7502],{},"It leaks information unavailable at historical forecast origins.",[1798,7504,7505,7506,3061],{},"Next: ",[4628,7507,436],{"href":7508},"..\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002F",{"title":10,"searchDepth":7510,"depth":7510,"links":7511},2,[7512,7513,7514,7515,7516,7517,7518,7519],{"id":1795,"depth":7510,"text":1796},{"id":2852,"depth":7510,"text":2853},{"id":4212,"depth":7510,"text":4213},{"id":4664,"depth":7510,"text":4665},{"id":5524,"depth":7510,"text":5525},{"id":7255,"depth":7510,"text":7256},{"id":7268,"depth":7510,"text":7269},{"id":7350,"depth":7510,"text":7351},"Matrix derivations for forecasting regressions, overlapping horizons, persistent predictors, and Newey–West inference.","md",{"sidebar":7523},{"order":7524},3,true,{"title":430,"description":7520},"UcbeXaIQYA9V5ivcBIKbyh8dVAmRPGHqBmwkV0AEyK0",[7529,7531],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"description":7530,"children":-1},"Transform prices and macroeconomic releases with explicit differencing, aggregation, timing, and vintage operators.",{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"description":7532,"children":-1},"Conditional variance, GARCH quasi-likelihood, leverage, heavy tails, and translation into VaR and expected shortfall.",1785754723820]