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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Statistics","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics",[1685,1691,1697,1703,1709,1715,1721],{"title":1686,"path":1687,"stem":1688,"children":1689},"第六章：抽样分布","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F01-sampling","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F01-sampling\u002Findex",[1690],{"title":1686,"path":1687,"stem":1688},{"title":1692,"path":1693,"stem":1694,"children":1695},"第七章：区间估计","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F02-interval-estimation","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F02-interval-estimation\u002Findex",[1696],{"title":1692,"path":1693,"stem":1694},{"title":1698,"path":1699,"stem":1700,"children":1701},"第八章：点估计理论","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F03-point-estimation","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F03-point-estimation\u002Findex",[1702],{"title":1698,"path":1699,"stem":1700},{"title":1704,"path":1705,"stem":1706,"children":1707},"第九章：点估计方法","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F04-pe-method","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F04-pe-method\u002Findex",[1708],{"title":1704,"path":1705,"stem":1706},{"title":1710,"path":1711,"stem":1712,"children":1713},"第十章：假设检验原理","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F05-hypothesis","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F05-hypothesis\u002Findex",[1714],{"title":1710,"path":1711,"stem":1712},{"title":1716,"path":1717,"stem":1718,"children":1719},"第十一章：常用检验方法与选择","\u002Fzh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F06-hypothesis-method","zh\u002Fprob-and-stats\u002F02-statistics\u002F06-hypothesis-method\u002Findex",[1720],{"title":1716,"path":1717,"stem":1718},{"title":1722,"path":1723,"stem":1724,"children":1725},"第十二章：Bootstrap 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This course keeps that mathematical spine but changes the question:",[1809,1810,1811],"blockquote",{},[1799,1812,1813],{},"How should a time-series model change when the decision concerns financial risk, an economic forecast, or a policy intervention?",[1799,1815,1816],{},"The answer is not “use a larger ARIMA model.” Financial and economic data introduce different clocks, transformations, losses, and identification problems:",[1818,1819,1820,1824,1827,1830],"ul",{},[1821,1822,1823],"li",{},"a stock price is observed almost continuously, but a national-account series is revised long after its first release;",[1821,1825,1826],{},"return means are weak and volatility is highly persistent, while macroeconomic levels often contain trends and cointegrating relations;",[1821,1828,1829],{},"a risk manager cares about tail losses, whereas a central-bank forecaster may care about a quarterly nowcast and the response to a policy shock;",[1821,1831,1832],{},"a forecasting relation need not be a causal or structural relation.",[1799,1834,1835,1836,1840],{},"This is therefore an ",[1837,1838,1839],"strong",{},"applied time-series econometrics course",", not a replacement for the classical theory course and not a trading-strategy cookbook.",[1794,1842,1844],{"id":1843},"preparation","Preparation",[1799,1846,1847],{},"Before starting, you should be able to:",[1818,1849,1850,2054,2057,2060,2063],{},[1821,1851,1852,1853,2053],{},"write OLS as ",[1854,1855,1858,1918],"span",{"className":1856},[1857],"katex",[1854,1859,1862],{"className":1860},[1861],"katex-mathml",[1863,1864,1866],"math",{"xmlns":1865},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[1867,1868,1869,1913],"semantics",{},[1870,1871,1872,1877,1888,1890,1904,1910],"mrow",{},[1873,1874,1876],"mo",{"stretchy":1875},"false","(",[1878,1879,1880,1884],"msup",{},[1881,1882,1883],"mi",{},"X",[1881,1885,1887],{"mathvariant":1886},"normal","⊤",[1881,1889,1883],{},[1878,1891,1892,1895],{},[1873,1893,1894],{"stretchy":1875},")",[1870,1896,1897,1900],{},[1873,1898,1899],{},"−",[1901,1902,1903],"mn",{},"1",[1878,1905,1906,1908],{},[1881,1907,1883],{},[1881,1909,1887],{"mathvariant":1886},[1881,1911,1912],{},"y",[1914,1915,1917],"annotation",{"encoding":1916},"application\u002Fx-tex","(X^\\top X)^{-1}X^\\top y",[1854,1919,1923],{"className":1920,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],"katex-html","true",[1854,1924,1927,1932,1936,1980,1983,2020,2049],{"className":1925},[1926],"base",[1854,1928],{"className":1929,"style":1931},[1930],"strut","height:1.0991em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1854,1933,1876],{"className":1934},[1935],"mopen",[1854,1937,1940,1945],{"className":1938},[1939],"mord",[1854,1941,1883],{"className":1942,"style":1944},[1939,1943],"mathnormal","margin-right:0.0785em;",[1854,1946,1949],{"className":1947},[1948],"msupsub",[1854,1950,1953],{"className":1951},[1952],"vlist-t",[1854,1954,1957],{"className":1955},[1956],"vlist-r",[1854,1958,1962],{"className":1959,"style":1961},[1960],"vlist","height:0.8491em;",[1854,1963,1965,1970],{"style":1964},"top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1854,1966],{"className":1967,"style":1969},[1968],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[1854,1971,1977],{"className":1972},[1973,1974,1975,1976],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1854,1978,1887],{"className":1979},[1939,1976],[1854,1981,1883],{"className":1982,"style":1944},[1939,1943],[1854,1984,1987,1990],{"className":1985},[1986],"mclose",[1854,1988,1894],{"className":1989},[1986],[1854,1991,1993],{"className":1992},[1948],[1854,1994,1996],{"className":1995},[1952],[1854,1997,1999],{"className":1998},[1956],[1854,2000,2003],{"className":2001,"style":2002},[1960],"height:0.8141em;",[1854,2004,2005,2008],{"style":1964},[1854,2006],{"className":2007,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2009,2011],{"className":2010},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2012,2014,2017],{"className":2013},[1939,1976],[1854,2015,1899],{"className":2016},[1939,1976],[1854,2018,1903],{"className":2019},[1939,1976],[1854,2021,2023,2026],{"className":2022},[1939],[1854,2024,1883],{"className":2025,"style":1944},[1939,1943],[1854,2027,2029],{"className":2028},[1948],[1854,2030,2032],{"className":2031},[1952],[1854,2033,2035],{"className":2034},[1956],[1854,2036,2038],{"className":2037,"style":1961},[1960],[1854,2039,2040,2043],{"style":1964},[1854,2041],{"className":2042,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2044,2046],{"className":2045},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2047,1887],{"className":2048},[1939,1976],[1854,2050,1912],{"className":2051,"style":2052},[1939,1943],"margin-right:0.0359em;"," and interpret a covariance matrix;",[1821,2055,2056],{},"recognise a stationary AR process and a unit root;",[1821,2058,2059],{},"read an ARMA equation and a first-order state equation;",[1821,2061,2062],{},"use logarithms, conditional expectation, likelihood, and matrix multiplication;",[1821,2064,2065],{},"run a self-contained base-R example.",[1799,2067,2068,2069,2072],{},"If these are unfamiliar, complete the first five modules of ",[1803,2070,2071],{"href":1805},"Classical Time Series"," first.",[2074,2075,2077,2327],"legacy-details",{"title":2076},"Ten-minute readiness check",[2078,2079,2080,2083,2287,2321,2324],"ol",{},[1821,2081,2082],{},"Why do we usually model a liquid asset's return rather than its price level?",[1821,2084,2085,2086,2166,2167,2239,2240,2286],{},"If ",[1854,2087,2089,2110],{"className":2088},[1857],[1854,2090,2092],{"className":2091},[1861],[1863,2093,2094],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,2095,2096,2107],{},[1870,2097,2098],{},[2099,2100,2101,2104],"msub",{},[1881,2102,2103],{},"x",[1881,2105,2106],{},"t",[1914,2108,2109],{"encoding":1916},"x_t",[1854,2111,2113],{"className":2112,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2114,2116,2120],{"className":2115},[1926],[1854,2117],{"className":2118,"style":2119},[1930],"height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1854,2121,2123,2126],{"className":2122},[1939],[1854,2124,2103],{"className":2125},[1939,1943],[1854,2127,2129],{"className":2128},[1948],[1854,2130,2133,2157],{"className":2131},[1952,2132],"vlist-t2",[1854,2134,2136,2152],{"className":2135},[1956],[1854,2137,2140],{"className":2138,"style":2139},[1960],"height:0.2806em;",[1854,2141,2143,2146],{"style":2142},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1854,2144],{"className":2145,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2147,2149],{"className":2148},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2150,2106],{"className":2151},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2153,2156],{"className":2154},[2155],"vlist-s","​",[1854,2158,2160],{"className":2159},[1956],[1854,2161,2164],{"className":2162,"style":2163},[1960],"height:0.15em;",[1854,2165],{}," and ",[1854,2168,2170,2188],{"className":2169},[1857],[1854,2171,2173],{"className":2172},[1861],[1863,2174,2175],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,2176,2177,2185],{},[1870,2178,2179],{},[2099,2180,2181,2183],{},[1881,2182,1912],{},[1881,2184,2106],{},[1914,2186,2187],{"encoding":1916},"y_t",[1854,2189,2191],{"className":2190,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2192,2194,2198],{"className":2193},[1926],[1854,2195],{"className":2196,"style":2197},[1930],"height:0.625em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1854,2199,2201,2204],{"className":2200},[1939],[1854,2202,1912],{"className":2203,"style":2052},[1939,1943],[1854,2205,2207],{"className":2206},[1948],[1854,2208,2210,2231],{"className":2209},[1952,2132],[1854,2211,2213,2228],{"className":2212},[1956],[1854,2214,2216],{"className":2215,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,2217,2219,2222],{"style":2218},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0359em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1854,2220],{"className":2221,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2223,2225],{"className":2224},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2226,2106],{"className":2227},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2229,2156],{"className":2230},[2155],[1854,2232,2234],{"className":2233},[1956],[1854,2235,2237],{"className":2236,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,2238],{}," are both ",[1854,2241,2243,2264],{"className":2242},[1857],[1854,2244,2246],{"className":2245},[1861],[1863,2247,2248],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,2249,2250,2261],{},[1870,2251,2252,2255,2257,2259],{},[1881,2253,2254],{},"I",[1873,2256,1876],{"stretchy":1875},[1901,2258,1903],{},[1873,2260,1894],{"stretchy":1875},[1914,2262,2263],{"encoding":1916},"I(1)",[1854,2265,2267],{"className":2266,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2268,2270,2274,2277,2280,2283],{"className":2269},[1926],[1854,2271],{"className":2272,"style":2273},[1930],"height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1854,2275,2254],{"className":2276,"style":1944},[1939,1943],[1854,2278,1876],{"className":2279},[1935],[1854,2281,1903],{"className":2282},[1939],[1854,2284,1894],{"className":2285},[1986],", when can a regression in levels still be meaningful?",[1821,2288,2289,2290,2320],{},"Why does an ",[1854,2291,2293,2307],{"className":2292},[1857],[1854,2294,2296],{"className":2295},[1861],[1863,2297,2298],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,2299,2300,2305],{},[1870,2301,2302],{},[1881,2303,2304],{},"h",[1914,2306,2304],{"encoding":1916},[1854,2308,2310],{"className":2309,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2311,2313,2317],{"className":2312},[1926],[1854,2314],{"className":2315,"style":2316},[1930],"height:0.6944em;",[1854,2318,2304],{"className":2319},[1939,1943],"-period overlapping return create serially correlated regression errors?",[1821,2322,2323],{},"What extra assumption turns a reduced-form VAR innovation into a named policy shock?",[1821,2325,2326],{},"Why is a revised GDP series inappropriate for evaluating a historical real-time forecast?",[1799,2328,2329],{},"Short answers: returns are closer to stationary and directly measure gains or losses; when a stationary linear combination exists; adjacent outcomes share observations; an identification restriction; the revised value was unavailable when the forecast was made.",[1794,2331,2333],{"id":2332},"learning-outcomes","Learning outcomes",[1799,2335,2336],{},"By the end, you will be able to:",[1818,2338,2339,2342,2345,2348,2351,2354,2357,2360,2363],{},[1821,2340,2341],{},"choose defensible transformations for prices, returns, yields, macroeconomic levels, growth rates, and revised releases;",[1821,2343,2344],{},"derive predictive regressions and Newey–West covariance estimators in matrix form;",[1821,2346,2347],{},"estimate and diagnose ARCH\u002FGARCH models and convert conditional variance forecasts into risk measures;",[1821,2349,2350],{},"distinguish unit-root, cointegration, error-correction, and spurious-regression arguments;",[1821,2352,2353],{},"derive reduced-form VAR forecasts and explain what additional restrictions identify structural shocks;",[1821,2355,2356],{},"implement a Kalman filter for missing and mixed-frequency observations;",[1821,2358,2359],{},"compare point, density, and tail-risk forecasts with losses matched to the decision;",[1821,2361,2362],{},"state clearly whether a result is descriptive, predictive, or structural;",[1821,2364,2365],{},"reproduce each core calculation in browser-based base R.",[1794,2367,2369],{"id":2368},"one-mathematical-spine-two-applied-tracks","One mathematical spine, two applied tracks",[1799,2371,2372,2373,2467,2468,2497],{},"Let ",[1854,2374,2376,2402],{"className":2375},[1857],[1854,2377,2379],{"className":2378},[1861],[1863,2380,2381],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,2382,2383,2399],{},[1870,2384,2385],{},[2099,2386,2387,2391],{},[1881,2388,2390],{"mathvariant":2389},"script","F",[1870,2392,2393,2395,2397],{},[1881,2394,2106],{},[1873,2396,1899],{},[1901,2398,1903],{},[1914,2400,2401],{"encoding":1916},"\\mathcal F_{t-1}",[1854,2403,2405],{"className":2404,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2406,2408,2412],{"className":2407},[1926],[1854,2409],{"className":2410,"style":2411},[1930],"height:0.8917em;vertical-align:-0.2083em;",[1854,2413,2415,2420],{"className":2414},[1939],[1854,2416,2390],{"className":2417,"style":2419},[1939,2418],"mathcal","margin-right:0.0993em;",[1854,2421,2423],{"className":2422},[1948],[1854,2424,2426,2458],{"className":2425},[1952,2132],[1854,2427,2429,2455],{"className":2428},[1956],[1854,2430,2433],{"className":2431,"style":2432},[1960],"height:0.3011em;",[1854,2434,2436,2439],{"style":2435},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0993em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1854,2437],{"className":2438,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2440,2442],{"className":2441},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2443,2445,2448,2452],{"className":2444},[1939,1976],[1854,2446,2106],{"className":2447},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2449,1899],{"className":2450},[2451,1976],"mbin",[1854,2453,1903],{"className":2454},[1939,1976],[1854,2456,2156],{"className":2457},[2155],[1854,2459,2461],{"className":2460},[1956],[1854,2462,2465],{"className":2463,"style":2464},[1960],"height:0.2083em;",[1854,2466],{}," denote information available before time ",[1854,2469,2471,2484],{"className":2470},[1857],[1854,2472,2474],{"className":2473},[1861],[1863,2475,2476],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,2477,2478,2482],{},[1870,2479,2480],{},[1881,2481,2106],{},[1914,2483,2106],{"encoding":1916},[1854,2485,2487],{"className":2486,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2488,2490,2494],{"className":2489},[1926],[1854,2491],{"className":2492,"style":2493},[1930],"height:0.6151em;",[1854,2495,2106],{"className":2496},[1939,1943],". Both tracks use",[1854,2499,2502],{"className":2500},[2501],"katex-display",[1854,2503,2505,2630],{"className":2504},[1857],[1854,2506,2508],{"className":2507},[1861],[1863,2509,2511],{"xmlns":1865,"display":2510},"block",[1867,2512,2513,2627],{},[1870,2514,2515,2521,2524,2531,2534,2541,2544,2548,2551,2553,2559,2562,2574,2576,2578,2581,2583,2585,2588,2591,2593,2599,2601,2613,2615,2617,2624],{},[2099,2516,2517,2519],{},[1881,2518,1912],{},[1881,2520,2106],{},[1873,2522,2523],{},"=",[2099,2525,2526,2529],{},[1881,2527,2528],{},"μ",[1881,2530,2106],{},[1873,2532,2533],{},"+",[2099,2535,2536,2539],{},[1881,2537,2538],{},"ε",[1881,2540,2106],{},[1873,2542,2543],{"separator":1922},",",[2545,2546],"mspace",{"width":2547},"2em",[1881,2549,2550],{},"E",[1873,2552,1876],{"stretchy":1875},[2099,2554,2555,2557],{},[1881,2556,2538],{},[1881,2558,2106],{},[1873,2560,2561],{},"∣",[2099,2563,2564,2566],{},[1881,2565,2390],{"mathvariant":2389},[1870,2567,2568,2570,2572],{},[1881,2569,2106],{},[1873,2571,1899],{},[1901,2573,1903],{},[1873,2575,1894],{"stretchy":1875},[1873,2577,2523],{},[1901,2579,2580],{},"0",[1873,2582,2543],{"separator":1922},[2545,2584],{"width":2547},[1881,2586,2587],{"mathvariant":1886},"Var",[1873,2589,2590],{},"⁡",[1873,2592,1876],{"stretchy":1875},[2099,2594,2595,2597],{},[1881,2596,2538],{},[1881,2598,2106],{},[1873,2600,2561],{},[2099,2602,2603,2605],{},[1881,2604,2390],{"mathvariant":2389},[1870,2606,2607,2609,2611],{},[1881,2608,2106],{},[1873,2610,1899],{},[1901,2612,1903],{},[1873,2614,1894],{"stretchy":1875},[1873,2616,2523],{},[2099,2618,2619,2622],{},[1881,2620,2621],{},"H",[1881,2623,2106],{},[1881,2625,2626],{"mathvariant":1886},".",[1914,2628,2629],{"encoding":1916},"y_t=\\mu_t+\\varepsilon_t,\\qquad\nE(\\varepsilon_t\\mid\\mathcal F_{t-1})=0,\\qquad\n\\operatorname{Var}(\\varepsilon_t\\mid\\mathcal F_{t-1})=H_t.",[1854,2631,2633,2690,2747,2861,2928,3006,3073],{"className":2632,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,2634,2636,2639,2679,2683,2687],{"className":2635},[1926],[1854,2637],{"className":2638,"style":2197},[1930],[1854,2640,2642,2645],{"className":2641},[1939],[1854,2643,1912],{"className":2644,"style":2052},[1939,1943],[1854,2646,2648],{"className":2647},[1948],[1854,2649,2651,2671],{"className":2650},[1952,2132],[1854,2652,2654,2668],{"className":2653},[1956],[1854,2655,2657],{"className":2656,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,2658,2659,2662],{"style":2218},[1854,2660],{"className":2661,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2663,2665],{"className":2664},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2666,2106],{"className":2667},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2669,2156],{"className":2670},[2155],[1854,2672,2674],{"className":2673},[1956],[1854,2675,2677],{"className":2676,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,2678],{},[1854,2680],{"className":2681,"style":2682},[2545],"margin-right:0.2778em;",[1854,2684,2523],{"className":2685},[2686],"mrel",[1854,2688],{"className":2689,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,2691,2693,2697,2737,2741,2744],{"className":2692},[1926],[1854,2694],{"className":2695,"style":2696},[1930],"height:0.7778em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1854,2698,2700,2703],{"className":2699},[1939],[1854,2701,2528],{"className":2702},[1939,1943],[1854,2704,2706],{"className":2705},[1948],[1854,2707,2709,2729],{"className":2708},[1952,2132],[1854,2710,2712,2726],{"className":2711},[1956],[1854,2713,2715],{"className":2714,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,2716,2717,2720],{"style":2142},[1854,2718],{"className":2719,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2721,2723],{"className":2722},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2724,2106],{"className":2725},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2727,2156],{"className":2728},[2155],[1854,2730,2732],{"className":2731},[1956],[1854,2733,2735],{"className":2734,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,2736],{},[1854,2738],{"className":2739,"style":2740},[2545],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1854,2742,2533],{"className":2743},[2451],[1854,2745],{"className":2746,"style":2740},[2545],[1854,2748,2750,2753,2793,2797,2801,2805,2809,2812,2852,2855,2858],{"className":2749},[1926],[1854,2751],{"className":2752,"style":2273},[1930],[1854,2754,2756,2759],{"className":2755},[1939],[1854,2757,2538],{"className":2758},[1939,1943],[1854,2760,2762],{"className":2761},[1948],[1854,2763,2765,2785],{"className":2764},[1952,2132],[1854,2766,2768,2782],{"className":2767},[1956],[1854,2769,2771],{"className":2770,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,2772,2773,2776],{"style":2142},[1854,2774],{"className":2775,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2777,2779],{"className":2778},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2780,2106],{"className":2781},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2783,2156],{"className":2784},[2155],[1854,2786,2788],{"className":2787},[1956],[1854,2789,2791],{"className":2790,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,2792],{},[1854,2794,2543],{"className":2795},[2796],"mpunct",[1854,2798],{"className":2799,"style":2800},[2545],"margin-right:2em;",[1854,2802],{"className":2803,"style":2804},[2545],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[1854,2806,2550],{"className":2807,"style":2808},[1939,1943],"margin-right:0.0576em;",[1854,2810,1876],{"className":2811},[1935],[1854,2813,2815,2818],{"className":2814},[1939],[1854,2816,2538],{"className":2817},[1939,1943],[1854,2819,2821],{"className":2820},[1948],[1854,2822,2824,2844],{"className":2823},[1952,2132],[1854,2825,2827,2841],{"className":2826},[1956],[1854,2828,2830],{"className":2829,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,2831,2832,2835],{"style":2142},[1854,2833],{"className":2834,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2836,2838],{"className":2837},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2839,2106],{"className":2840},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2842,2156],{"className":2843},[2155],[1854,2845,2847],{"className":2846},[1956],[1854,2848,2850],{"className":2849,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,2851],{},[1854,2853],{"className":2854,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,2856,2561],{"className":2857},[2686],[1854,2859],{"className":2860,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,2862,2864,2867,2916,2919,2922,2925],{"className":2863},[1926],[1854,2865],{"className":2866,"style":2273},[1930],[1854,2868,2870,2873],{"className":2869},[1939],[1854,2871,2390],{"className":2872,"style":2419},[1939,2418],[1854,2874,2876],{"className":2875},[1948],[1854,2877,2879,2908],{"className":2878},[1952,2132],[1854,2880,2882,2905],{"className":2881},[1956],[1854,2883,2885],{"className":2884,"style":2432},[1960],[1854,2886,2887,2890],{"style":2435},[1854,2888],{"className":2889,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2891,2893],{"className":2892},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2894,2896,2899,2902],{"className":2895},[1939,1976],[1854,2897,2106],{"className":2898},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2900,1899],{"className":2901},[2451,1976],[1854,2903,1903],{"className":2904},[1939,1976],[1854,2906,2156],{"className":2907},[2155],[1854,2909,2911],{"className":2910},[1956],[1854,2912,2914],{"className":2913,"style":2464},[1960],[1854,2915],{},[1854,2917,1894],{"className":2918},[1986],[1854,2920],{"className":2921,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,2923,2523],{"className":2924},[2686],[1854,2926],{"className":2927,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,2929,2931,2934,2937,2940,2943,2946,2954,2957,2997,3000,3003],{"className":2930},[1926],[1854,2932],{"className":2933,"style":2273},[1930],[1854,2935,2580],{"className":2936},[1939],[1854,2938,2543],{"className":2939},[2796],[1854,2941],{"className":2942,"style":2800},[2545],[1854,2944],{"className":2945,"style":2804},[2545],[1854,2947,2950],{"className":2948},[2949],"mop",[1854,2951,2587],{"className":2952},[1939,2953],"mathrm",[1854,2955,1876],{"className":2956},[1935],[1854,2958,2960,2963],{"className":2959},[1939],[1854,2961,2538],{"className":2962},[1939,1943],[1854,2964,2966],{"className":2965},[1948],[1854,2967,2969,2989],{"className":2968},[1952,2132],[1854,2970,2972,2986],{"className":2971},[1956],[1854,2973,2975],{"className":2974,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,2976,2977,2980],{"style":2142},[1854,2978],{"className":2979,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,2981,2983],{"className":2982},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,2984,2106],{"className":2985},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,2987,2156],{"className":2988},[2155],[1854,2990,2992],{"className":2991},[1956],[1854,2993,2995],{"className":2994,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,2996],{},[1854,2998],{"className":2999,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,3001,2561],{"className":3002},[2686],[1854,3004],{"className":3005,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,3007,3009,3012,3061,3064,3067,3070],{"className":3008},[1926],[1854,3010],{"className":3011,"style":2273},[1930],[1854,3013,3015,3018],{"className":3014},[1939],[1854,3016,2390],{"className":3017,"style":2419},[1939,2418],[1854,3019,3021],{"className":3020},[1948],[1854,3022,3024,3053],{"className":3023},[1952,2132],[1854,3025,3027,3050],{"className":3026},[1956],[1854,3028,3030],{"className":3029,"style":2432},[1960],[1854,3031,3032,3035],{"style":2435},[1854,3033],{"className":3034,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,3036,3038],{"className":3037},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,3039,3041,3044,3047],{"className":3040},[1939,1976],[1854,3042,2106],{"className":3043},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,3045,1899],{"className":3046},[2451,1976],[1854,3048,1903],{"className":3049},[1939,1976],[1854,3051,2156],{"className":3052},[2155],[1854,3054,3056],{"className":3055},[1956],[1854,3057,3059],{"className":3058,"style":2464},[1960],[1854,3060],{},[1854,3062,1894],{"className":3063},[1986],[1854,3065],{"className":3066,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,3068,2523],{"className":3069},[2686],[1854,3071],{"className":3072,"style":2682},[2545],[1854,3074,3076,3080,3122],{"className":3075},[1926],[1854,3077],{"className":3078,"style":3079},[1930],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1854,3081,3083,3087],{"className":3082},[1939],[1854,3084,2621],{"className":3085,"style":3086},[1939,1943],"margin-right:0.0813em;",[1854,3088,3090],{"className":3089},[1948],[1854,3091,3093,3114],{"className":3092},[1952,2132],[1854,3094,3096,3111],{"className":3095},[1956],[1854,3097,3099],{"className":3098,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,3100,3102,3105],{"style":3101},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0813em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1854,3103],{"className":3104,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,3106,3108],{"className":3107},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,3109,2106],{"className":3110},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,3112,2156],{"className":3113},[2155],[1854,3115,3117],{"className":3116},[1956],[1854,3118,3120],{"className":3119,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,3121],{},[1854,3123,2626],{"className":3124},[1939],[1799,3126,3127],{},"They emphasise different parts:",[3129,3130,3131,3150],"table",{},[3132,3133,3134],"thead",{},[3135,3136,3137,3141,3144,3147],"tr",{},[3138,3139,3140],"th",{},"Track",[3138,3142,3143],{},"Typical observation",[3138,3145,3146],{},"Dominant uncertainty",[3138,3148,3149],{},"Decision",[3151,3152,3153,3239],"tbody",{},[3135,3154,3155,3159,3162,3236],{},[3156,3157,3158],"td",{},"Finance",[3156,3160,3161],{},"daily or intraday return, spread, yield",[3156,3163,3164,3165,3235],{},"time-varying ",[1854,3166,3168,3186],{"className":3167},[1857],[1854,3169,3171],{"className":3170},[1861],[1863,3172,3173],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,3174,3175,3183],{},[1870,3176,3177],{},[2099,3178,3179,3181],{},[1881,3180,2621],{},[1881,3182,2106],{},[1914,3184,3185],{"encoding":1916},"H_t",[1854,3187,3189],{"className":3188,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,3190,3192,3195],{"className":3191},[1926],[1854,3193],{"className":3194,"style":3079},[1930],[1854,3196,3198,3201],{"className":3197},[1939],[1854,3199,2621],{"className":3200,"style":3086},[1939,1943],[1854,3202,3204],{"className":3203},[1948],[1854,3205,3207,3227],{"className":3206},[1952,2132],[1854,3208,3210,3224],{"className":3209},[1956],[1854,3211,3213],{"className":3212,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,3214,3215,3218],{"style":3101},[1854,3216],{"className":3217,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,3219,3221],{"className":3220},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,3222,2106],{"className":3223},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,3225,2156],{"className":3226},[2155],[1854,3228,3230],{"className":3229},[1956],[1854,3231,3233],{"className":3232,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,3234],{},", heavy tails, market timing",[3156,3237,3238],{},"hedge, allocate, price, limit risk",[3135,3240,3241,3244,3247,3321],{},[3156,3242,3243],{},"Economics",[3156,3245,3246],{},"monthly or quarterly level\u002Fgrowth release",[3156,3248,3249,3250,3320],{},"persistent ",[1854,3251,3253,3271],{"className":3252},[1857],[1854,3254,3256],{"className":3255},[1861],[1863,3257,3258],{"xmlns":1865},[1867,3259,3260,3268],{},[1870,3261,3262],{},[2099,3263,3264,3266],{},[1881,3265,2528],{},[1881,3267,2106],{},[1914,3269,3270],{"encoding":1916},"\\mu_t",[1854,3272,3274],{"className":3273,"ariaHidden":1922},[1921],[1854,3275,3277,3280],{"className":3276},[1926],[1854,3278],{"className":3279,"style":2197},[1930],[1854,3281,3283,3286],{"className":3282},[1939],[1854,3284,2528],{"className":3285},[1939,1943],[1854,3287,3289],{"className":3288},[1948],[1854,3290,3292,3312],{"className":3291},[1952,2132],[1854,3293,3295,3309],{"className":3294},[1956],[1854,3296,3298],{"className":3297,"style":2139},[1960],[1854,3299,3300,3303],{"style":2142},[1854,3301],{"className":3302,"style":1969},[1968],[1854,3304,3306],{"className":3305},[1973,1974,1975,1976],[1854,3307,2106],{"className":3308},[1939,1943,1976],[1854,3310,2156],{"className":3311},[2155],[1854,3313,3315],{"className":3314},[1956],[1854,3316,3318],{"className":3317,"style":2163},[1960],[1854,3319],{},", revisions, latent current state",[3156,3322,3323],{},"forecast, nowcast, explain, evaluate policy",[1799,3325,3326],{},"Finance is not “only variance,” and economics is not “only the mean.” The distinction tells us where model failure is most costly.",[1794,3328,3330],{"id":3329},"course-map","Course map",[3129,3332,3333,3349],{},[3132,3334,3335],{},[3135,3336,3337,3340,3343,3346],{},[3138,3338,3339],{},"Module",[3138,3341,3342],{},"Central question",[3138,3344,3345],{},"Matrix object",[3138,3347,3348],{},"Main output",[3151,3350,3351,3368,3385,3402,3419,3436,3453,3470,3487,3504],{},[3135,3352,3353,3359,3362,3365],{},[3156,3354,3355],{},[1803,3356,3358],{"href":3357},"..\u002F01-bridge\u002F","1. Three versions of time series",[3156,3360,3361],{},"what changes across statistics, finance, and economics?",[3156,3363,3364],{},"covariance, information set, loss",[3156,3366,3367],{},"method-selection memo",[3135,3369,3370,3376,3379,3382],{},[3156,3371,3372],{},[1803,3373,3375],{"href":3374},"..\u002F02-data-transformations\u002F","2. Data and transformations",[3156,3377,3378],{},"what is the estimand after transforming raw observations?",[3156,3380,3381],{},"differencing and aggregation operators",[3156,3383,3384],{},"auditable data transformation",[3135,3386,3387,3393,3396,3399],{},[3156,3388,3389],{},[1803,3390,3392],{"href":3391},"..\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002F","3. Predictive regressions",[3156,3394,3395],{},"does a persistent variable improve a forecast?",[3156,3397,3398],{},"projection and HAC covariance",[3156,3400,3401],{},"horizon-specific forecast regression",[3135,3403,3404,3410,3413,3416],{},[3156,3405,3406],{},[1803,3407,3409],{"href":3408},"..\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002F","4. Volatility and risk",[3156,3411,3412],{},"how does conditional risk evolve?",[3156,3414,3415],{},"variance recursion and likelihood",[3156,3417,3418],{},"volatility, VaR, and ES forecast",[3135,3420,3421,3427,3430,3433],{},[3156,3422,3423],{},[1803,3424,3426],{"href":3425},"..\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002F","5. Unit roots and cointegration",[3156,3428,3429],{},"is a level relation genuine or spurious?",[3156,3431,3432],{},"long-run rank and error correction",[3156,3434,3435],{},"equilibrium-and-adjustment argument",[3135,3437,3438,3444,3447,3450],{},[3156,3439,3440],{},[1803,3441,3443],{"href":3442},"..\u002F06-var-identification\u002F","6. VAR and identification",[3156,3445,3446],{},"what propagates through a system, and what is a shock?",[3156,3448,3449],{},"companion matrix and impact matrix",[3156,3451,3452],{},"identified impulse-response analysis",[3135,3454,3455,3461,3464,3467],{},[3156,3456,3457],{},[1803,3458,3460],{"href":3459},"..\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002F","7. State space and nowcasting",[3156,3462,3463],{},"how do we estimate an unobserved current state?",[3156,3465,3466],{},"prediction\u002Fupdate covariance recursion",[3156,3468,3469],{},"ragged-edge nowcast",[3135,3471,3472,3478,3481,3484],{},[3156,3473,3474],{},[1803,3475,3477],{"href":3476},"..\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002F","8. Forecast evaluation",[3156,3479,3480],{},"is one forecast useful for the actual decision?",[3156,3482,3483],{},"loss differential and long-run variance",[3156,3485,3486],{},"comparative evaluation report",[3135,3488,3489,3495,3498,3501],{},[3156,3490,3491],{},[1803,3492,3494],{"href":3493},"..\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002F","9. R laboratory",[3156,3496,3497],{},"can the complete workflow be reproduced?",[3156,3499,3500],{},"reusable matrix checks",[3156,3502,3503],{},"finance and economics mini-cases",[3135,3505,3506,3512,3515,3518],{},[3156,3507,3508],{},[1803,3509,3511],{"href":3510},"..\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002F","10. Capstone and readings",[3156,3513,3514],{},"can evidence support a bounded decision?",[3156,3516,3517],{},"end-to-end audit trail",[3156,3519,3520],{},"finance or economics project",[1794,3522,3524],{"id":3523},"how-every-module-works","How every module works",[1799,3526,3527],{},"Each module has four layers:",[2078,3529,3530,3536,3542,3548],{},[1821,3531,3532,3535],{},[1837,3533,3534],{},"Prepare:"," identify the data clock, transformation, information set, and decision.",[1821,3537,3538,3541],{},[1837,3539,3540],{},"Derive:"," express the model as a projection, covariance, companion, or state-space matrix.",[1821,3543,3544,3547],{},[1837,3545,3546],{},"Execute:"," run a small base-R example whose numerical result checks the derivation.",[1821,3549,3550,3553],{},[1837,3551,3552],{},"Interpret:"," write one sentence separating description, prediction, and identification.",[1799,3555,3556],{},"The examples are deliberately small. A short simulation can expose a failed assumption more clearly than a large opaque download.",[1794,3558,3560],{"id":3559},"a-ten-week-route","A ten-week route",[3129,3562,3563,3576],{},[3132,3564,3565],{},[3135,3566,3567,3571,3573],{},[3138,3568,3570],{"align":3569},"right","Week",[3138,3572,1844],{},[3138,3574,3575],{},"Seminar or laboratory evidence",[3151,3577,3578,3588,3599,3610,3621,3632,3643,3654,3665,3676],{},[3135,3579,3580,3582,3585],{},[3156,3581,1903],{"align":3569},[3156,3583,3584],{},"classical ARMA and projection review",[3156,3586,3587],{},"classify six questions as statistical, financial, economic, or structural",[3135,3589,3590,3593,3596],{},[3156,3591,3592],{"align":3569},"2",[3156,3594,3595],{},"log changes and aggregation",[3156,3597,3598],{},"build a transformation matrix and audit units",[3135,3600,3601,3604,3607],{},[3156,3602,3603],{"align":3569},"3",[3156,3605,3606],{},"persistent regressors and overlapping horizons",[3156,3608,3609],{},"derive OLS and HAC covariance",[3135,3611,3612,3615,3618],{},[3156,3613,3614],{"align":3569},"4",[3156,3616,3617],{},"conditional heteroskedasticity",[3156,3619,3620],{},"estimate a GARCH model and explain persistence",[3135,3622,3623,3626,3629],{},[3156,3624,3625],{"align":3569},"5",[3156,3627,3628],{},"unit roots",[3156,3630,3631],{},"diagnose a spurious level regression",[3135,3633,3634,3637,3640],{},[3156,3635,3636],{"align":3569},"6",[3156,3638,3639],{},"cointegration and error correction",[3156,3641,3642],{},"separate long-run relation from short-run adjustment",[3135,3644,3645,3648,3651],{},[3156,3646,3647],{"align":3569},"7",[3156,3649,3650],{},"reduced-form VAR",[3156,3652,3653],{},"compute forecasts and impulse propagation",[3135,3655,3656,3659,3662],{},[3156,3657,3658],{"align":3569},"8",[3156,3660,3661],{},"structural identification",[3156,3663,3664],{},"compare two defensible shock definitions",[3135,3666,3667,3670,3673],{},[3156,3668,3669],{"align":3569},"9",[3156,3671,3672],{},"state space and real-time data",[3156,3674,3675],{},"produce a ragged-edge nowcast",[3135,3677,3678,3681,3684],{},[3156,3679,3680],{"align":3569},"10",[3156,3682,3683],{},"forecast evaluation and synthesis",[3156,3685,3686],{},"defend one decision using an honest pseudo-out-of-sample design",[1794,3688,3690],{"id":3689},"suggested-assessment-map","Suggested assessment map",[1799,3692,3693],{},"This is a teaching design, not an institutional grading policy.",[3129,3695,3696,3709],{},[3132,3697,3698],{},[3135,3699,3700,3703,3706],{},[3138,3701,3702],{},"Evidence",[3138,3704,3705],{"align":3569},"Suggested share",[3138,3707,3708],{},"Observable standard",[3151,3710,3711,3722,3733,3743],{},[3135,3712,3713,3716,3719],{},[3156,3714,3715],{},"transformation and information-set audit",[3156,3717,3718],{"align":3569},"20%",[3156,3720,3721],{},"units, timing, releases, and revisions are explicit",[3135,3723,3724,3727,3730],{},[3156,3725,3726],{},"matrix derivations and R checks",[3156,3728,3729],{"align":3569},"30%",[3156,3731,3732],{},"dimensions, assumptions, and numerical identities agree",[3135,3734,3735,3738,3740],{},[3156,3736,3737],{},"comparative forecast exercise",[3156,3739,3718],{"align":3569},[3156,3741,3742],{},"benchmark, loss, horizon, and evaluation window are justified",[3135,3744,3745,3748,3750],{},[3156,3746,3747],{},"finance or economics capstone",[3156,3749,3729],{"align":3569},[3156,3751,3752],{},"claim is bounded; uncertainty and failure modes are reported",[1799,3754,3755],{},"Expected independent work is about 4–6 hours per module: 1 hour preparation, 1.5 hours guided reading, 1.5 hours code, and 1–2 hours interpretation. All core R cells run in the browser. A learner who cannot use the interactive runtime may copy the same base-R code into a local R session and submit text tables instead of plots.",[1794,3757,3759],{"id":3758},"start","Start",[1799,3761,3762,3763,3765],{},"Begin with ",[1803,3764,418],{"href":3357},". Do not choose a model until you can name the observation clock, the forecast horizon, the available information, and the loss attached to a wrong decision.",{"title":10,"searchDepth":3767,"depth":3767,"links":3768},2,[3769,3770,3771,3772,3773,3774,3775,3776,3777],{"id":1796,"depth":3767,"text":1797},{"id":1843,"depth":3767,"text":1844},{"id":2332,"depth":3767,"text":2333},{"id":2368,"depth":3767,"text":2369},{"id":3329,"depth":3767,"text":3330},{"id":3523,"depth":3767,"text":3524},{"id":3559,"depth":3767,"text":3560},{"id":3689,"depth":3767,"text":3690},{"id":3758,"depth":3767,"text":3759},"A matrix-based course in returns, volatility, persistent predictors, cointegration, structural dynamics, nowcasting, and forecast evaluation.","md",{"sidebar":3781},{"order":3782},0,true,{"title":412,"description":3778},"nQPT_Ld4pGJxmXsX6yMAsJst409PN2ISlG-WXZ8c8zg",[3787,3789],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"description":3788,"children":-1},"An integrated HarborMart case from decision contract to monitored rollout",{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"description":3790,"children":-1},"A decision guide to classical statistical, financial, and economic time series, with matched examples and method-selection rules.",1785754723533]