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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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manager asks: “Can the risk model reduce evening delivery failures?” Your task is not to praise or reject the model. You must design a defensible decision system.",[1798,1802,1803],{},"At checkout, the system may:",[1805,1806,1807,1811,1814,1817],"ol",{},[1808,1809,1810],"li",{},"accept the requested window;",[1808,1812,1813],{},"offer a later promise;",[1808,1815,1816],{},"reroute to a nearby fulfilment centre when feasible; or",[1808,1818,1819],{},"call additional picker capacity for a future slot.",[1798,1821,1822],{},"The customer must see the promise before payment. Information observed after that moment is unavailable to the decision.",[1793,1824,1826],{"id":1825},"evidence-pack-a-eight-week-operating-summary","Evidence pack A: eight-week operating summary",[1798,1828,1829],{},"There were 24,000 completed evening orders and 312 cancellations after acceptance.",[1831,1832,1833,1853],"table",{},[1834,1835,1836],"thead",{},[1837,1838,1839,1843,1847,1850],"tr",{},[1840,1841,1842],"th",{},"Window",[1840,1844,1846],{"align":1845},"right","Completed orders",[1840,1848,1849],{"align":1845},"Late",[1840,1851,1852],{"align":1845},"Late rate",[1854,1855,1856,1871,1885,1899,1913],"tbody",{},[1837,1857,1858,1862,1865,1868],{},[1859,1860,1861],"td",{},"16:00–17:00",[1859,1863,1864],{"align":1845},"6,000",[1859,1866,1867],{"align":1845},"330",[1859,1869,1870],{"align":1845},"5.5%",[1837,1872,1873,1876,1879,1882],{},[1859,1874,1875],{},"17:00–18:00",[1859,1877,1878],{"align":1845},"7,000",[1859,1880,1881],{"align":1845},"560",[1859,1883,1884],{"align":1845},"8.0%",[1837,1886,1887,1890,1893,1896],{},[1859,1888,1889],{},"18:00–19:00",[1859,1891,1892],{"align":1845},"6,500",[1859,1894,1895],{"align":1845},"715",[1859,1897,1898],{"align":1845},"11.0%",[1837,1900,1901,1904,1907,1910],{},[1859,1902,1903],{},"19:00–20:00",[1859,1905,1906],{"align":1845},"4,500",[1859,1908,1909],{"align":1845},"770",[1859,1911,1912],{"align":1845},"17.1%",[1837,1914,1915,1921,1926,1931],{},[1859,1916,1917],{},[1918,1919,1920],"strong",{},"total",[1859,1922,1923],{"align":1845},[1918,1924,1925],{},"24,000",[1859,1927,1928],{"align":1845},[1918,1929,1930],{},"2,375",[1859,1932,1933],{"align":1845},[1918,1934,1935],{},"9.9%",[1798,1937,1938],{},"This table does not prove that the time window causes lateness. Store, distance, basket and capacity mix also change through the evening.",[1793,1940,1942],{"id":1941},"evidence-pack-b-data-dictionary","Evidence pack B: data dictionary",[1831,1944,1945,1958],{},[1834,1946,1947],{},[1837,1948,1949,1952,1955],{},[1840,1950,1951],{},"Field",[1840,1953,1954],{},"Grain or timing",[1840,1956,1957],{},"Audit note",[1854,1959,1960,1974,1987,2000,2013,2026,2039,2052,2065,2078],{},[1837,1961,1962,1968,1971],{},[1859,1963,1964],{},[1965,1966,1967],"code",{},"orders.order_id",[1859,1969,1970],{},"one accepted order",[1859,1972,1973],{},"primary key; cancelled orders remain",[1837,1975,1976,1981,1984],{},[1859,1977,1978],{},[1965,1979,1980],{},"order_items",[1859,1982,1983],{},"many rows per order",[1859,1985,1986],{},"joining before aggregation duplicates orders",[1837,1988,1989,1994,1997],{},[1859,1990,1991],{},[1965,1992,1993],{},"score_at_checkout",[1859,1995,1996],{},"stored before promise",[1859,1998,1999],{},"legitimate historical prediction",[1837,2001,2002,2007,2010],{},[1859,2003,2004],{},[1965,2005,2006],{},"scheduled_picker_minutes",[1859,2008,2009],{},"known at checkout",[1859,2011,2012],{},"legitimate capacity feature",[1837,2014,2015,2020,2023],{},[1859,2016,2017],{},[1965,2018,2019],{},"actual_picker_minutes",[1859,2021,2022],{},"final shift record",[1859,2024,2025],{},"leakage for checkout prediction",[1837,2027,2028,2033,2036],{},[1859,2029,2030],{},[1965,2031,2032],{},"weather_forecast_at_checkout",[1859,2034,2035],{},"forecast version stored at checkout",[1859,2037,2038],{},"legitimate if timestamp is preserved",[1837,2040,2041,2046,2049],{},[1859,2042,2043],{},[1965,2044,2045],{},"actual_weather",[1859,2047,2048],{},"observed later",[1859,2050,2051],{},"outcome-time information",[1837,2053,2054,2059,2062],{},[1859,2055,2056],{},[1965,2057,2058],{},"arrival_time",[1859,2060,2061],{},"observed for completed delivery",[1859,2063,2064],{},"missing for cancellations",[1837,2066,2067,2072,2075],{},[1859,2068,2069],{},[1965,2070,2071],{},"customer_service_note",[1859,2073,2074],{},"free text after delivery",[1859,2076,2077],{},"possible leakage and sensitive content",[1837,2079,2080,2085,2088],{},[1859,2081,2082],{},[1965,2083,2084],{},"service_area",[1859,2086,2087],{},"operational zone",[1859,2089,2090],{},"use for error and impact audit",[1798,2092,2093,2094,2097],{},"The late label is ",[1965,2095,2096],{},"arrival_time > promise_end",". Decide explicitly how cancellation, re-promise and missing arrival should enter the business outcome; silently dropping them rewards avoidance.",[1793,2099,2101],{"id":2100},"evidence-pack-c-model-audit","Evidence pack C: model audit",[1798,2103,2104],{},"The candidate model was evaluated on the latest four weeks, after all training periods.",[1831,2106,2107,2123],{},[1834,2108,2109],{},[1837,2110,2111,2114,2117,2120],{},[1840,2112,2113],{},"Risk band",[1840,2115,2116],{"align":1845},"Orders",[1840,2118,2119],{"align":1845},"Mean predicted risk",[1840,2121,2122],{"align":1845},"Observed late rate",[1854,2124,2125,2138,2150,2163],{},[1837,2126,2127,2130,2133,2136],{},[1859,2128,2129],{},"below 5%",[1859,2131,2132],{"align":1845},"8,000",[1859,2134,2135],{"align":1845},"3.0%",[1859,2137,2135],{"align":1845},[1837,2139,2140,2143,2145,2148],{},[1859,2141,2142],{},"5%–10%",[1859,2144,1878],{"align":1845},[1859,2146,2147],{"align":1845},"7.0%",[1859,2149,2147],{"align":1845},[1837,2151,2152,2155,2158,2161],{},[1859,2153,2154],{},"10%–20%",[1859,2156,2157],{"align":1845},"5,500",[1859,2159,2160],{"align":1845},"14.0%",[1859,2162,2160],{"align":1845},[1837,2164,2165,2168,2171,2174],{},[1859,2166,2167],{},"above 20%",[1859,2169,2170],{"align":1845},"3,500",[1859,2172,2173],{"align":1845},"25.0%",[1859,2175,2173],{"align":1845},[1831,2177,2178,2191],{},[1834,2179,2180],{},[1837,2181,2182,2185,2188],{},[1840,2183,2184],{},"Measure",[1840,2186,2187],{"align":1845},"Constant-risk baseline",[1840,2189,2190],{"align":1845},"Candidate",[1854,2192,2193,2204],{},[1837,2194,2195,2198,2201],{},[1859,2196,2197],{},"Brier score",[1859,2199,2200],{"align":1845},"0.089",[1859,2202,2203],{"align":1845},"0.078",[1837,2205,2206,2209,2212],{},[1859,2207,2208],{},"AUROC",[1859,2210,2211],{"align":1845},"0.500",[1859,2213,2214],{"align":1845},"0.720",[1798,2216,2217],{},"Aggregate calibration hides one issue:",[1831,2219,2220,2235],{},[1834,2221,2222],{},[1837,2223,2224,2227,2229,2232],{},[1840,2225,2226],{},"Service area",[1840,2228,2116],{"align":1845},[1840,2230,2231],{"align":1845},"Mean prediction",[1840,2233,2234],{"align":1845},"Observed rate",[1854,2236,2237,2251],{},[1837,2238,2239,2242,2245,2248],{},[1859,2240,2241],{},"central and inner",[1859,2243,2244],{"align":1845},"19,200",[1859,2246,2247],{"align":1845},"9.7%",[1859,2249,2250],{"align":1845},"8.5%",[1837,2252,2253,2256,2259,2262],{},[1859,2254,2255],{},"outer",[1859,2257,2258],{"align":1845},"4,800",[1859,2260,2261],{"align":1845},"10.6%",[1859,2263,2264],{"align":1845},"15.4%",[1798,2266,2267],{},"The outer-area result may reflect model error, changed road conditions, weak labels or a different data-generating process. Diagnose before changing a threshold.",[1793,2269,2271],{"id":2270},"evidence-pack-d-candidate-actions","Evidence pack D: candidate actions",[1798,2273,2274],{},"The finance team values a prevented late delivery at £9 after refunds, support time and estimated retention effects. Treat this figure as an assumption requiring sensitivity analysis.",[1831,2276,2277,2293],{},[1834,2278,2279],{},[1837,2280,2281,2284,2287,2290],{},[1840,2282,2283],{},"Action over eight weeks",[1840,2285,2286],{"align":1845},"Direct cost",[1840,2288,2289],{},"Estimated consequence",[1840,2291,2292],{},"Evidence quality",[1854,2294,2295,2309,2323,2337],{},[1837,2296,2297,2300,2303,2306],{},[1859,2298,2299],{},"add one picker, 17:00–20:00",[1859,2301,2302],{"align":1845},"£2,160",[1859,2304,2305],{},"420 fewer late orders, interval 250–580",[1859,2307,2308],{},"randomised shift pilot",[1837,2310,2311,2314,2317,2320],{},[1859,2312,2313],{},"reroute up to 600 eligible orders",[1859,2315,2316],{"align":1845},"£1,440",[1859,2318,2319],{},"210 fewer late orders",[1859,2321,2322],{},"adjusted observational comparison",[1837,2324,2325,2328,2331,2334],{},[1859,2326,2327],{},"offer later windows to top 300 risks",[1859,2329,2330],{"align":1845},"£1,800 lost contribution",[1859,2332,2333],{},"90 fewer recorded late orders",[1859,2335,2336],{},"model simulation only",[1837,2338,2339,2342,2345,2348],{},[1859,2340,2341],{},"keep current rule",[1859,2343,2344],{"align":1845},"£0",[1859,2346,2347],{},"baseline",[1859,2349,2350],{},"observed history",[1798,2352,2353],{},"Capacity allows only one additional picker. Rerouting is unavailable for chilled baskets and adds a median 11 minutes to travel. A re-promised order is not “on time” under the original promise; retain both original- and revised-promise measures.",[1793,2355,2357],{"id":2356},"your-six-decisions","Your six decisions",[2359,2360,2362],"h3",{"id":2361},"a-frame","A. Frame",[1798,2364,2365],{},"Write an analytics contract naming owner, decision time, unit, eligible population, actions, objective, constraints, baseline, horizon and review rule. State one descriptive, predictive, causal and prescriptive claim the evidence can or cannot support.",[2359,2367,2369],{"id":2368},"b-audit","B. Audit",[1798,2371,2372],{},"Specify the order-level analysis table. Show how you will prevent item-join duplication, temporal leakage and silent cancellation exclusion. Add five executable data checks.",[2359,2374,2376],{"id":2375},"c-diagnose","C. Diagnose",[1798,2378,2379],{},"Produce one decision display that separates volume from late rate and exposes the outer-area problem. Include counts, denominators and uncertainty. Give two rival process explanations.",[2359,2381,2383],{"id":2382},"d-predict","D. Predict",[1798,2385,2386],{},"Decide whether the candidate improves on the baseline for this decision. Evaluate temporal validity, calibration, ranking, subgroup error and the cost\u002Fcapacity range. Do not select a threshold from AUROC alone.",[2359,2388,2390],{"id":2389},"e-prescribe","E. Prescribe",[1798,2392,2393],{},"Recommend an action or staged combination. Calculate expected net value, test the £9 assumption and use the intervention evidence quality. State why “offer later windows to top risks” may optimise the reported metric while harming service.",[2359,2395,2397],{"id":2396},"f-deploy-and-learn","F. Deploy and learn",[1798,2399,2400],{},"Design a shadow stage and a controlled rollout. Specify five monitors, two guardrails, one pause condition, one rollback rule, owners and a causal value evaluation. Explain how selective labels will arise.",[1793,2402,2404],{"id":2403},"deliverable-template","Deliverable template",[1798,2406,2407],{},"This is a teaching template, not an institutional rule:",[1805,2409,2410,2416,2422,2428],{},[1808,2411,2412,2415],{},[1918,2413,2414],{},"executive decision memo:"," recommendation, expected value range, material uncertainty and next decision;",[1808,2417,2418,2421],{},[1918,2419,2420],{},"technical appendix:"," contract, data audit, validation, policy calculation and sensitivity;",[1808,2423,2424,2427],{},[1918,2425,2426],{},"control sheet:"," monitoring, fairness\u002Fprivacy review, incident and rollback rules;",[1808,2429,2430,2433],{},[1918,2431,2432],{},"reproducibility record:"," data snapshot, code\u002Fenvironment, assumptions and generated outputs.",[1793,2435,2437],{"id":2436},"evaluation-rubric","Evaluation rubric",[1831,2439,2440,2450],{},[1834,2441,2442],{},[1837,2443,2444,2447],{},[1840,2445,2446],{},"Criterion",[1840,2448,2449],{},"Strong work demonstrates",[1854,2451,2452,2460,2468,2476,2484,2492],{},[1837,2453,2454,2457],{},[1859,2455,2456],{},"decision logic",[1859,2458,2459],{},"objective, alternatives, constraints and counterfactual align",[1837,2461,2462,2465],{},[1859,2463,2464],{},"evidence discipline",[1859,2466,2467],{},"description, prediction, causation and prescription are not conflated",[1837,2469,2470,2473],{},[1859,2471,2472],{},"technical validity",[1859,2474,2475],{},"grain, time, denominator, baseline, calibration and uncertainty are audited",[1837,2477,2478,2481],{},[1859,2479,2480],{},"operational realism",[1859,2482,2483],{},"action is feasible; ownership, latency, feedback and rollback are explicit",[1837,2485,2486,2489],{},[1859,2487,2488],{},"responsibility",[1859,2490,2491],{},"affected groups, privacy, security, review and contestability shape the design",[1837,2493,2494,2497],{},[1859,2495,2496],{},"communication",[1859,2498,2499],{},"conclusion is concise, traceable and honest about what is unknown",[1798,2501,2502],{},"Postgraduate work should add an identification diagram, a formal estimand, robustness to model misspecification and decision-regret comparison.",[2504,2505,2507,2633,2754],"legacy-details",{"title":2506},"Instructor checkpoint — not a unique solution",[1798,2508,2509,2510,2632],{},"The additional picker has point-estimate gross value ",[2511,2512,2515,2569],"span",{"className":2513},[2514],"katex",[2511,2516,2519],{"className":2517},[2518],"katex-mathml",[2520,2521,2523],"math",{"xmlns":2522},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML",[2524,2525,2526,2564],"semantics",{},[2527,2528,2529,2533,2538,2543,2546,2549,2552,2554,2557,2561],"mrow",{},[2530,2531,2532],"mn",{},"420",[2534,2535,2537],"mo",{"stretchy":2536},"false","(",[2539,2540,2542],"mi",{"mathvariant":2541},"normal","£",[2530,2544,2545],{},"9",[2534,2547,2548],{"stretchy":2536},")",[2534,2550,2551],{},"=",[2539,2553,2542],{"mathvariant":2541},[2530,2555,2556],{},"3",[2534,2558,2560],{"separator":2559},"true",",",[2530,2562,2563],{},"780",[2565,2566,2568],"annotation",{"encoding":2567},"application\u002Fx-tex","420(£9)=£3,780",[2511,2570,2573,2610],{"className":2571,"ariaHidden":2559},[2572],"katex-html",[2511,2574,2577,2582,2586,2590,2594,2598,2603,2607],{"className":2575},[2576],"base",[2511,2578],{"className":2579,"style":2581},[2580],"strut","height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[2511,2583,2532],{"className":2584},[2585],"mord",[2511,2587,2537],{"className":2588},[2589],"mopen",[2511,2591,2593],{"className":2592},[2585],"£9",[2511,2595,2548],{"className":2596},[2597],"mclose",[2511,2599],{"className":2600,"style":2602},[2601],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[2511,2604,2551],{"className":2605},[2606],"mrel",[2511,2608],{"className":2609,"style":2602},[2601],[2511,2611,2613,2617,2621,2625,2629],{"className":2612},[2576],[2511,2614],{"className":2615,"style":2616},[2580],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[2511,2618,2620],{"className":2619},[2585],"£3",[2511,2622,2560],{"className":2623},[2624],"mpunct",[2511,2626],{"className":2627,"style":2628},[2601],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[2511,2630,2563],{"className":2631},[2585]," and net value £1,620. At the pilot interval endpoints, net value ranges from £90 to £3,060; break-even value per prevented late order is about £5.14. That makes a staged picker rollout defensible, not certain.",[1798,2634,2635,2636,2753],{},"Rerouting has point-estimate net value ",[2511,2637,2639,2682],{"className":2638},[2514],[2511,2640,2642],{"className":2641},[2518],[2520,2643,2644],{"xmlns":2522},[2524,2645,2646,2679],{},[2527,2647,2648,2651,2653,2655,2657,2659,2662,2664,2667,2669,2672,2674,2676],{},[2530,2649,2650],{},"210",[2534,2652,2537],{"stretchy":2536},[2539,2654,2542],{"mathvariant":2541},[2530,2656,2545],{},[2534,2658,2548],{"stretchy":2536},[2534,2660,2661],{},"−",[2539,2663,2542],{"mathvariant":2541},[2530,2665,2666],{},"1",[2534,2668,2560],{"separator":2559},[2530,2670,2671],{},"440",[2534,2673,2551],{},[2539,2675,2542],{"mathvariant":2541},[2530,2677,2678],{},"450",[2565,2680,2681],{"encoding":2567},"210(£9)-£1,440=£450",[2511,2683,2685,2714,2742],{"className":2684,"ariaHidden":2559},[2572],[2511,2686,2688,2691,2694,2697,2700,2703,2707,2711],{"className":2687},[2576],[2511,2689],{"className":2690,"style":2581},[2580],[2511,2692,2650],{"className":2693},[2585],[2511,2695,2537],{"className":2696},[2589],[2511,2698,2593],{"className":2699},[2585],[2511,2701,2548],{"className":2702},[2597],[2511,2704],{"className":2705,"style":2706},[2601],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[2511,2708,2661],{"className":2709},[2710],"mbin",[2511,2712],{"className":2713,"style":2706},[2601],[2511,2715,2717,2720,2724,2727,2730,2733,2736,2739],{"className":2716},[2576],[2511,2718],{"className":2719,"style":2616},[2580],[2511,2721,2723],{"className":2722},[2585],"£1",[2511,2725,2560],{"className":2726},[2624],[2511,2728],{"className":2729,"style":2628},[2601],[2511,2731,2671],{"className":2732},[2585],[2511,2734],{"className":2735,"style":2602},[2601],[2511,2737,2551],{"className":2738},[2606],[2511,2740],{"className":2741,"style":2602},[2601],[2511,2743,2745,2749],{"className":2744},[2576],[2511,2746],{"className":2747,"style":2748},[2580],"height:0.6944em;",[2511,2750,2752],{"className":2751},[2585],"£450",", but weaker causal evidence and eligibility constraints. Re-promising may reduce the recorded late rate by redefining service rather than improving it. Preserve original-promise outcomes.",[1798,2755,2756,2757,2759,2760,2762],{},"A strong answer investigates outer-area calibration, keeps cancellations in a guardrail, logs proposed and executed actions, and randomises rollout where feasible. It does not feed ",[1965,2758,2019],{},", ",[1965,2761,2045],{}," or service notes into a checkout-time model.",[1798,2764,2765,2766,2771,2772,2776],{},"Use the ",[2767,2768,2770],"a",{"href":2769},"..\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","formula map",", then compare your reasoning with the ",[2767,2773,2775],{"href":2774},"..\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","worked pitfalls",".",{"title":10,"searchDepth":2778,"depth":2778,"links":2779},2,[2780,2781,2782,2783,2784,2785,2794,2795],{"id":1795,"depth":2778,"text":1796},{"id":1825,"depth":2778,"text":1826},{"id":1941,"depth":2778,"text":1942},{"id":2100,"depth":2778,"text":2101},{"id":2270,"depth":2778,"text":2271},{"id":2356,"depth":2778,"text":2357,"children":2786},[2787,2789,2790,2791,2792,2793],{"id":2361,"depth":2788,"text":2362},3,{"id":2368,"depth":2788,"text":2369},{"id":2375,"depth":2788,"text":2376},{"id":2382,"depth":2788,"text":2383},{"id":2389,"depth":2788,"text":2390},{"id":2396,"depth":2788,"text":2397},{"id":2403,"depth":2778,"text":2404},{"id":2436,"depth":2778,"text":2437},"An integrated HarborMart case from decision contract to monitored rollout","md",{},true,{"title":401,"description":2796},"WD8nCqb4FfsyAUetp3EyJmpQyr7H-rRdrH5rwoGWAkk",[2803,2805],{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399,"description":2804,"children":-1},"A dated, selective map of foundational research, current extensions, standards and organisational cases",{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"description":2806,"children":-1},"A matrix-based course in returns, volatility, persistent predictors, cointegration, structural dynamics, nowcasting, and forecast evaluation.",1785754723378]