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Search, Evaluate, and Read Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F02-reading-and-literature-matrix",{"title":27,"path":28,"stem":29},"3. From Sources to Synthesis and Argument","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F03-arguments-outlines-and-paragraphs",{"title":31,"path":32,"stem":33},"4. Literature Review and a Defensible Gap","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":35,"path":36,"stem":37},"5. Research Design, Evidence, and Core Sections","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F05-core-sections-and-evidence",{"title":39,"path":40,"stem":41},"6. Citation, Paraphrasing, Integrity, and AI","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F06-citation-paraphrasing-and-integrity",{"title":43,"path":44,"stem":45},"7. Revision, Review, and Submission","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F07-revision-style-and-submission",{"title":47,"path":48,"stem":49},"8. Research Workbook","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":51,"path":52,"stem":53},"9. Research Workflow and Tools","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F09-tools-for-academic-writing-and-literature-management",{"title":55,"path":56,"stem":57},"10. Worked Project — From Question to Defensible Conclusion","\u002Fen\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain","en\u002Facademic-writing\u002F10-worked-example-from-block-structure-to-question-chain",{"title":59,"path":60,"stem":61,"children":62,"page":249},"Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting","en\u002Faccounting",[63,69,87,93,193],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66,"children":67},"Accounting — From Evidence to Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index","en\u002Faccounting\u002F00-index",[68],{"title":64,"path":65,"stem":66},{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72,"children":73},"Accounting Appendix","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[74,75,79,83],{"title":70,"path":71,"stem":72},{"title":76,"path":77,"stem":78},"Worked Examples and Error Diagnosis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F24-examples-pitfalls",{"title":80,"path":81,"stem":82},"Accounting Glossary","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F26-glossary",{"title":84,"path":85,"stem":86},"Reading and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fappendix\u002F27-reading-map",{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90,"children":91},"Northstar Record-to-Decision Capstone","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[92],{"title":88,"path":89,"stem":90},{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96,"children":97},"Financial Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002Findex",[98,99,117,131,165,179],{"title":94,"path":95,"stem":96},{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102,"children":103},"1. Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002Findex",[104,105,109,113],{"title":100,"path":101,"stem":102},{"title":106,"path":107,"stem":108},"Objectives and Qualitative Characteristics","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F01-objectives-qualitative-characteristics",{"title":110,"path":111,"stem":112},"Equation and Elements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F02-equation-elements",{"title":114,"path":115,"stem":116},"Accrual Basis, Estimates and Periods","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F01-foundations\u002F03-accounting-bases-principles",{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120,"children":121},"2. Recording Transactions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002Findex",[122,123,127],{"title":118,"path":119,"stem":120},{"title":124,"path":125,"stem":126},"Double-Entry and Debit\u002FCredit","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F04-double-entry-dr-cr",{"title":128,"path":129,"stem":130},"Accounting Cycle","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F02-recording-transactions\u002F05-accounting-cycle",{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134,"children":135},"3. Measurement and Adjustments","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002Findex",[136,137,141,145,149,153,157,161],{"title":132,"path":133,"stem":134},{"title":138,"path":139,"stem":140},"Revenue Recognition","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F07-revenue-recognition",{"title":142,"path":143,"stem":144},"Inventory","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F08-inventory",{"title":146,"path":147,"stem":148},"Receivables and Expected Credit Losses","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F09-receivables",{"title":150,"path":151,"stem":152},"Property, Plant and Equipment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F10-ppe",{"title":154,"path":155,"stem":156},"Intangible Assets","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F11-intangibles",{"title":158,"path":159,"stem":160},"Leases","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F12-leases",{"title":162,"path":163,"stem":164},"Current and Deferred Income Tax","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F03-measurement-adjustments\u002F13-income-tax",{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168,"children":169},"4. Reporting and Cash","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002Findex",[170,171,175],{"title":166,"path":167,"stem":168},{"title":172,"path":173,"stem":174},"Linked Financial Statements","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F06-financial-statements",{"title":176,"path":177,"stem":178},"Cash, Reconciliation and Internal Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F04-reporting-cash\u002F14-cash-control",{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182,"children":183},"5. Analysis and Comparison","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002Findex",[184,185,189],{"title":180,"path":181,"stem":182},{"title":186,"path":187,"stem":188},"Ratio Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F15-ratio-analysis",{"title":190,"path":191,"stem":192},"IFRS versus US GAAP","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap","en\u002Faccounting\u002Ffinancial-accounting\u002F05-analysis-comparison\u002F25-ifrs-gaap",{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196,"children":197},"Management Accounting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002Findex",[198,199,217,235],{"title":194,"path":195,"stem":196},{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202,"children":203},"1. Cost Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002Findex",[204,205,209,213],{"title":200,"path":201,"stem":202},{"title":206,"path":207,"stem":208},"Cost Concepts and Behaviour","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F16-cost-concepts",{"title":210,"path":211,"stem":212},"Costing Systems","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F17-costing-systems",{"title":214,"path":215,"stem":216},"Variable and Absorption Costing","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F01-cost-foundations\u002F19-variable-vs-absorption",{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220,"children":221},"2. Planning and Control","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002Findex",[222,223,227,231],{"title":218,"path":219,"stem":220},{"title":224,"path":225,"stem":226},"Cost–Volume–Profit Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F18-cvp-analysis",{"title":228,"path":229,"stem":230},"Budgeting and Variance Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F20-budgeting-variances",{"title":232,"path":233,"stem":234},"Performance Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F02-planning-control\u002F21-performance-measurement",{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238,"children":239},"3. Decisions and Investment","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002Findex",[240,241,245],{"title":236,"path":237,"stem":238},{"title":242,"path":243,"stem":244},"Short-Term Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F22-short-term-decisions",{"title":246,"path":247,"stem":248},"Capital Budgeting","\u002Fen\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting","en\u002Faccounting\u002Fmanagement-accounting\u002F03-decisions-investment\u002F23-capital-budgeting",false,{"title":251,"path":252,"stem":253,"children":254,"page":249},"Business Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics",[255,261,279,305,335,365,383,400],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258,"children":259},"Business Analytics — From Data to Defensible Action","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-index",[260],{"title":256,"path":257,"stem":258},{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264,"children":265},"0. Decision and Data Foundations","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[266,267,271,275],{"title":262,"path":263,"stem":264},{"title":268,"path":269,"stem":270},"Decision Framing","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F01-decision-framing",{"title":272,"path":273,"stem":274},"Data Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F02-data-contracts",{"title":276,"path":277,"stem":278},"Reproducible Analytics Workflow","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F00-intro\u002F03-reproducible-workflow",{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282,"children":283},"1. Descriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002Findex",[284,285,289,293,297,301],{"title":280,"path":281,"stem":282},{"title":286,"path":287,"stem":288},"Distributions and Exploratory Data Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F04-distributions-eda",{"title":290,"path":291,"stem":292},"KPIs and Denominators","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F05-kpis-denominators",{"title":294,"path":295,"stem":296},"Segments, Cohorts and Funnels","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F06-segmentation-cohorts-funnels",{"title":298,"path":299,"stem":300},"Visual Evidence and Data Stories","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F07-visualisation-story",{"title":302,"path":303,"stem":304},"Experiments and Causal Boundaries","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F01-descriptive\u002F08-experiments-causal-boundary",{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308,"children":309},"2. Predictive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002Findex",[310,311,315,319,323,327,331],{"title":306,"path":307,"stem":308},{"title":312,"path":313,"stem":314},"Validation, Baselines and Leakage","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F09-validation-leakage",{"title":316,"path":317,"stem":318},"Regression and Forecasting","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F10-regression-forecasting",{"title":320,"path":321,"stem":322},"Classification and Calibration","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F11-classification-calibration",{"title":324,"path":325,"stem":326},"Trees and Ensembles","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F12-trees-ensembles",{"title":328,"path":329,"stem":330},"Decision Metrics and Thresholds","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F13-decision-metrics-thresholds",{"title":332,"path":333,"stem":334},"Explainability, Monitoring and Drift","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F02-predictive\u002F14-explainability-drift",{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"children":339},"3. Prescriptive Analytics","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002Findex",[340,341,345,349,353,357,361],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338},{"title":342,"path":343,"stem":344},"Decision-Making under Uncertainty","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348},"Linear Optimisation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F16-linear-optimization",{"title":350,"path":351,"stem":352},"Inventory and Allocation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F17-inventory-allocation",{"title":354,"path":355,"stem":356},"Queueing and Simulation","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F18-queueing-simulation",{"title":358,"path":359,"stem":360},"Pricing and Revenue Management","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F19-pricing-experimentation",{"title":362,"path":363,"stem":364},"Causal Targeting and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F20-causal-targeting",{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368,"children":369},"4. Deployment and Governance","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002Findex",[370,371,375,379],{"title":366,"path":367,"stem":368},{"title":372,"path":373,"stem":374},"Data Products and Monitoring","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F21-data-products-monitoring",{"title":376,"path":377,"stem":378},"Governance, Fairness and Privacy","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F22-governance-fairness-privacy",{"title":380,"path":381,"stem":382},"Adoption and Business Value","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F04-deployment\u002F23-adoption-value",{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386,"children":387},"Appendix and Revision Tools","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[388,389,393,397],{"title":384,"path":385,"stem":386},{"title":390,"path":391,"stem":392},"Formula and Decision Map","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F24-formula-map",{"title":394,"path":395,"stem":396},"Worked Examples and Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F25-worked-examples-pitfalls",{"title":84,"path":398,"stem":399},"\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fappendix\u002F26-reading-map",{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403,"children":404},"Capstone — The Evening Delivery Promise","\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[405],{"title":401,"path":402,"stem":403},{"title":407,"path":408,"stem":409,"children":410,"page":249},"Financial Economic Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series",[411,417,423,429,435,441,447,453,459,465,471],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414,"children":415},"Financial and Economic Time Series — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[416],{"title":412,"path":413,"stem":414},{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420,"children":421},"Three Versions of Time Series","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F01-bridge\u002Findex",[422],{"title":418,"path":419,"stem":420},{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426,"children":427},"Data, Clocks, and Transformations","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F02-data-transformations\u002Findex",[428],{"title":424,"path":425,"stem":426},{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432,"children":433},"Predictive Regressions and Persistent Predictors","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F03-predictive-regressions\u002Findex",[434],{"title":430,"path":431,"stem":432},{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438,"children":439},"Volatility, Tails, and Financial Risk","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F04-volatility-risk\u002Findex",[440],{"title":436,"path":437,"stem":438},{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444,"children":445},"Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Error Correction","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F05-unit-roots-cointegration\u002Findex",[446],{"title":442,"path":443,"stem":444},{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450,"children":451},"VAR, Structural Identification, and Local Projections","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F06-var-identification\u002Findex",[452],{"title":448,"path":449,"stem":450},{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456,"children":457},"State Space, Mixed Frequency, and Nowcasting","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F07-state-space-nowcasting\u002Findex",[458],{"title":454,"path":455,"stem":456},{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462,"children":463},"Forecast Evaluation for Decisions","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F08-forecast-evaluation\u002Findex",[464],{"title":460,"path":461,"stem":462},{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468,"children":469},"Integrated R Laboratory","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F09-r-laboratory\u002Findex",[470],{"title":466,"path":467,"stem":468},{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474,"children":475},"Capstones, Data, and Reading Ladder","\u002Fen\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings","en\u002Ffinancial-economic-time-series\u002F10-capstone-readings\u002Findex",[476],{"title":472,"path":473,"stem":474},{"title":478,"path":479,"stem":480,"children":481,"page":249},"Intro To Economics","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics","en\u002Fintro-to-economics",[482,486,490,494,498,502,506,510,514,518,522,526,530],{"title":483,"path":484,"stem":485},"Introduction to Economics — Decisions, Markets, and the Macroeconomy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F00-intro",{"title":487,"path":488,"stem":489},"Chapter 1 — Choice, Opportunity Cost, and Trade","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F01-foundations",{"title":491,"path":492,"stem":493},"Chapter 2 — Demand, Supply, Equilibrium, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F02-demand-and-supply",{"title":495,"path":496,"stem":497},"Chapter 3 — Elasticity, Revenue, and Tax Incidence","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F03-elasticity",{"title":499,"path":500,"stem":501},"Chapter 4 — Firms, Market Power, and Market Failure","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F04-market-structures",{"title":503,"path":504,"stem":505},"Chapter 5 — GDP, Income, Wealth, and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F05-gdp-and-wealth",{"title":507,"path":508,"stem":509},"Chapter 6 — Inflation, Purchasing Power, and Labour Markets","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F06-inflation-and-unemployment",{"title":511,"path":512,"stem":513},"Chapter 7 — Productivity, Technology, and Economic Growth","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F07-economic-growth",{"title":515,"path":516,"stem":517},"Chapter 8 — Money, Credit, and Banking","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F08-money-and-banking",{"title":519,"path":520,"stem":521},"Chapter 9 — Business Cycles, AD–AS, and Monetary Policy","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F09-monetary-policy-and-ad-as",{"title":523,"path":524,"stem":525},"Chapter 10 — Fiscal Policy, Distribution, and Public Debt","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F10-fiscal-policy",{"title":527,"path":528,"stem":529},"Chapter 11 — Trade, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F11-open-economy-and-exchange-rates",{"title":531,"path":532,"stem":533},"Chapter 12 — Integrated Economic Analysis Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies","en\u002Fintro-to-economics\u002F12-review-and-case-studies",{"title":535,"path":536,"stem":537,"children":538,"page":249},"Microeconometrics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics",[539,557,563,581,603,629,651,673,691,709],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542,"children":543},"0. Causal Questions and Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002Findex",[544,545,549,553],{"title":540,"path":541,"stem":542},{"title":546,"path":547,"stem":548},"Causal Questions and Estimands","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F01-causal-question-estimands",{"title":550,"path":551,"stem":552},"Potential Outcomes and Experiments","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F02-potential-outcomes-experiments",{"title":554,"path":555,"stem":556},"Causal Diagrams and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-foundations\u002F03-dags-controls",{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560,"children":561},"Microeconometrics — Designing Credible Counterfactuals","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F00-index",[562],{"title":558,"path":559,"stem":560},{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566,"children":567},"1. Regression and Inference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002Findex",[568,569,573,577],{"title":564,"path":565,"stem":566},{"title":570,"path":571,"stem":572},"OLS as a Projection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F04-ols-projection",{"title":574,"path":575,"stem":576},"FWL, Selection and Controls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F05-fwl-selection-controls",{"title":578,"path":579,"stem":580},"Inference and Clustering","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F01-regression\u002F06-inference-clustering",{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584,"children":585},"2. Instruments and Panel Data","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002Findex",[586,587,591,595,599],{"title":582,"path":583,"stem":584},{"title":588,"path":589,"stem":590},"Instrumental Variables","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F07-iv-identification",{"title":592,"path":593,"stem":594},"Weak Instruments and LATE","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F08-weak-iv-late",{"title":596,"path":597,"stem":598},"Panel Fixed Effects","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F09-panel-fixed-effects",{"title":600,"path":601,"stem":602},"Dynamic Panels and Limits","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F02-iv-panel\u002F10-dynamic-panel",{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606,"children":607},"3. Policy Evaluation Designs","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002Findex",[608,609,613,617,621,625],{"title":604,"path":605,"stem":606},{"title":610,"path":611,"stem":612},"Difference-in-Differences","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F11-did-core",{"title":614,"path":615,"stem":616},"Staggered DID and Event Studies","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F12-staggered-event-studies",{"title":618,"path":619,"stem":620},"Regression Discontinuity","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F13-rdd",{"title":622,"path":623,"stem":624},"Matching, Weighting and Overlap","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F14-matching-weighting",{"title":626,"path":627,"stem":628},"Synthetic Control","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F03-policy-designs\u002F15-synthetic-control",{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632,"children":633},"Module 4 — Choice and Limited Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002Findex",[634,635,639,643,647],{"title":630,"path":631,"stem":632},{"title":636,"path":637,"stem":638},"Binary Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F16-binary-choice",{"title":640,"path":641,"stem":642},"Multinomial and Ordered Choice","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F17-multinomial-choice",{"title":644,"path":645,"stem":646},"Count Outcomes","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F18-count-outcomes",{"title":648,"path":649,"stem":650},"Censoring, Truncation and Selection","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F04-outcomes-choice\u002F19-censoring-selection",{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654,"children":655},"Module 5 — Modern Causal Analysis","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002Findex",[656,657,661,665,669],{"title":652,"path":653,"stem":654},{"title":658,"path":659,"stem":660},"Double Machine Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F20-dml",{"title":662,"path":663,"stem":664},"Heterogeneity and Policy Learning","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F21-heterogeneity-policy",{"title":666,"path":667,"stem":668},"Sensitivity and Partial Identification","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F22-sensitivity-partial-id",{"title":670,"path":671,"stem":672},"External Validity and Transport","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F05-modern-causal\u002F23-external-validity",{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676,"children":677},"Module 6 — From Data to Auditable Evidence","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002Findex",[678,679,683,687],{"title":674,"path":675,"stem":676},{"title":680,"path":681,"stem":682},"Data Provenance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F24-data-provenance",{"title":684,"path":685,"stem":686},"Reproducibility and Reporting","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F25-reproducibility-reporting",{"title":688,"path":689,"stem":690},"Paper and Evidence Audit","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002F06-workflow\u002F26-paper-audit",{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694,"children":695},"Appendix — Revision and Evidence Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002Findex",[696,697,701,705],{"title":692,"path":693,"stem":694},{"title":698,"path":699,"stem":700},"Formula and Design Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F27-formula-design-map",{"title":702,"path":703,"stem":704},"Ten Worked Microeconometric Pitfalls","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F28-worked-pitfalls",{"title":706,"path":707,"stem":708},"Reading and Software Map","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fappendix\u002F29-reading-software-map",{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712,"children":713},"Capstone — Should Northbridge Expand Pathways?","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone","en\u002Fmicroeconometrics\u002Fcapstone\u002Findex",[714],{"title":710,"path":711,"stem":712},{"title":716,"path":717,"stem":718,"children":719,"page":249},"Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics",[720,726,732,738,744,750,756,762,768,774,780,786,792],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723,"children":724},"Advanced Microeconomics — Course Guide","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F00-intro\u002Findex",[725],{"title":721,"path":722,"stem":723},{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729,"children":730},"Module 1 — Choice, Duality, and Revealed Preference","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F01-fundations\u002Findex",[731],{"title":727,"path":728,"stem":729},{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735,"children":736},"Module 2 — Comparative Statics and Welfare Measurement","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F02-comparative-statics\u002Findex",[737],{"title":733,"path":734,"stem":735},{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741,"children":742},"Module 3 — Choice under Risk and Insurance","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F03-uncertainty\u002Findex",[743],{"title":739,"path":740,"stem":741},{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747,"children":748},"Module 4 — General Equilibrium and Welfare","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F04-general-equilibrium\u002Findex",[749],{"title":745,"path":746,"stem":747},{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753,"children":754},"Module 5 — Static, Dynamic, and Repeated Games","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F05-game-theory\u002Findex",[755],{"title":751,"path":752,"stem":753},{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759,"children":760},"Module 6 — Oligopoly, Entry, and Algorithmic Pricing","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F06-oligopoly\u002Findex",[761],{"title":757,"path":758,"stem":759},{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765,"children":766},"Module 7 — Information Economics and Contracts","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F07-information-economics\u002Findex",[767],{"title":763,"path":764,"stem":765},{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771,"children":772},"Module 8 — Mechanism Design and Auctions","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F08-mechanism-design\u002Findex",[773],{"title":769,"path":770,"stem":771},{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777,"children":778},"Module 9 — Behavioural and Experimental Microeconomics","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F09-behavioural-economics\u002Findex",[779],{"title":775,"path":776,"stem":777},{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783,"children":784},"Module 10 — Externalities, Public Goods, and Collective Action","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F10-externalities-public-goods\u002Findex",[785],{"title":781,"path":782,"stem":783},{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789,"children":790},"Module 11 — Matching and Market Design","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F11-market-design\u002Findex",[791],{"title":787,"path":788,"stem":789},{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795,"children":796},"Module 12 — Integrated Microeconomic Design Studio","\u002Fen\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review","en\u002Fmicroeconomics\u002F12-review\u002Findex",[797],{"title":793,"path":794,"stem":795},{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801,"children":802},"Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground","en\u002Fplayground\u002Findex",[803,804,808,812,816,820],{"title":799,"path":800,"stem":801},{"title":805,"path":806,"stem":807},"Typst Plugin Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex","en\u002Fplayground\u002F01-typstex",{"title":809,"path":810,"stem":811},"Citation Plugin Test","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation","en\u002Fplayground\u002F02-citation",{"title":813,"path":814,"stem":815},"Pyodide Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide","en\u002Fplayground\u002F03-pyodide",{"title":817,"path":818,"stem":819},"WebR Playground","\u002Fen\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr","en\u002Fplayground\u002F04-webr",{"title":821,"path":822,"stem":823},"Chart.js 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文献综述的构建与写作","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F04-writing-the-literature-review",{"title":1056,"path":1057,"stem":1058},"8. 文献综述清单与模板","\u002Fzh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template","zh\u002Facademic-writing\u002F08-literature-review-checklist-and-template",{"title":1060,"path":1061,"stem":1062},"10. 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Alpha 策略全流程","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study","zh\u002Fquant\u002F09-case-study",{"title":1779,"path":1780,"stem":1781},"量化投资文献与软件图谱","\u002Fzh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map","zh\u002Fquant\u002F10-reading-software-map",null,{"id":1784,"title":342,"body":1785,"description":2796,"extension":2797,"features":1782,"hero":1782,"layout":1782,"locale":1782,"meta":2798,"navigation":1782,"path":343,"published":2799,"seo":2800,"stem":344,"__hash__":2801},"docs\u002Fen\u002Fbusiness-analytics\u002F03-prescriptive\u002F15-decision-uncertainty.md",{"type":1786,"value":1787,"toc":2788},"minimark",[1788,1792,1797,1801,1858,1861,2095,2259,2262,2266,2269,2508,2511,2653,2656,2660,2663,2720,2723,2727,2756,2759,2770,2774,2777,2782],[1789,1790,342],"h1",{"id":1791},"decision-making-under-uncertainty",[1793,1794,1796],"h2",{"id":1795},"separate-action-from-state","Separate action from state",[1798,1799,1800],"p",{},"HarborMart must decide evening picker capacity before demand is known.",[1802,1803,1804,1821],"table",{},[1805,1806,1807],"thead",{},[1808,1809,1810,1814,1818],"tr",{},[1811,1812,1813],"th",{},"Contribution after staffing cost",[1811,1815,1817],{"align":1816},"right","Normal demand, 60%",[1811,1819,1820],{"align":1816},"High demand, 40%",[1822,1823,1824,1836,1847],"tbody",{},[1808,1825,1826,1830,1833],{},[1827,1828,1829],"td",{},"current staffing",[1827,1831,1832],{"align":1816},"£4,000",[1827,1834,1835],{"align":1816},"£2,000",[1808,1837,1838,1841,1844],{},[1827,1839,1840],{},"add one picker",[1827,1842,1843],{"align":1816},"£3,700",[1827,1845,1846],{"align":1816},"£3,600",[1808,1848,1849,1852,1855],{},[1827,1850,1851],{},"add two pickers",[1827,1853,1854],{"align":1816},"£3,200",[1827,1856,1857],{"align":1816},"£4,200",[1798,1859,1860],{},"Expected values are:",[1862,1863,1866],"span",{"className":1864},[1865],"katex-display",[1862,1867,1870,1948],{"className":1868},[1869],"katex",[1862,1871,1874],{"className":1872},[1873],"katex-mathml",[1875,1876,1879],"math",{"xmlns":1877,"display":1878},"http:\u002F\u002Fwww.w3.org\u002F1998\u002FMath\u002FMathML","block",[1880,1881,1882,1943],"semantics",{},[1883,1884,1885,1889,1892,1897,1901,1904,1907,1910,1912,1915,1917,1920,1923,1925,1928,1930,1932,1936,1939],"mrow",{},[1886,1887,1888],"mi",{},"E",[1886,1890,1891],{},"V",[1893,1894,1896],"mo",{"stretchy":1895},"false","(",[1898,1899,1900],"mn",{},"0",[1893,1902,1903],{"stretchy":1895},")",[1893,1905,1906],{},"=",[1898,1908,1909],{},"0.6",[1893,1911,1896],{"stretchy":1895},[1898,1913,1914],{},"4,000",[1893,1916,1903],{"stretchy":1895},[1893,1918,1919],{},"+",[1898,1921,1922],{},"0.4",[1893,1924,1896],{"stretchy":1895},[1898,1926,1927],{},"2,000",[1893,1929,1903],{"stretchy":1895},[1893,1931,1906],{},[1886,1933,1935],{"mathvariant":1934},"normal","£",[1898,1937,1938],{},"3,200",[1893,1940,1942],{"separator":1941},"true",",",[1944,1945,1947],"annotation",{"encoding":1946},"application\u002Fx-tex","EV(0)=0.6(4{,}000)+0.4(2{,}000)=£3{,}200,",[1862,1949,1952,1994,2034,2071],{"className":1950,"ariaHidden":1941},[1951],"katex-html",[1862,1953,1956,1961,1967,1971,1975,1978,1982,1987,1991],{"className":1954},[1955],"base",[1862,1957],{"className":1958,"style":1960},[1959],"strut","height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;",[1862,1962,1888],{"className":1963,"style":1966},[1964,1965],"mord","mathnormal","margin-right:0.0576em;",[1862,1968,1891],{"className":1969,"style":1970},[1964,1965],"margin-right:0.2222em;",[1862,1972,1896],{"className":1973},[1974],"mopen",[1862,1976,1900],{"className":1977},[1964],[1862,1979,1903],{"className":1980},[1981],"mclose",[1862,1983],{"className":1984,"style":1986},[1985],"mspace","margin-right:0.2778em;",[1862,1988,1906],{"className":1989},[1990],"mrel",[1862,1992],{"className":1993,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,1995,1997,2000,2003,2006,2010,2017,2021,2024,2027,2031],{"className":1996},[1955],[1862,1998],{"className":1999,"style":1960},[1959],[1862,2001,1909],{"className":2002},[1964],[1862,2004,1896],{"className":2005},[1974],[1862,2007,2009],{"className":2008},[1964],"4",[1862,2011,2013],{"className":2012},[1964],[1862,2014,1942],{"className":2015},[2016],"mpunct",[1862,2018,2020],{"className":2019},[1964],"000",[1862,2022,1903],{"className":2023},[1981],[1862,2025],{"className":2026,"style":1970},[1985],[1862,2028,1919],{"className":2029},[2030],"mbin",[1862,2032],{"className":2033,"style":1970},[1985],[1862,2035,2037,2040,2043,2046,2050,2056,2059,2062,2065,2068],{"className":2036},[1955],[1862,2038],{"className":2039,"style":1960},[1959],[1862,2041,1922],{"className":2042},[1964],[1862,2044,1896],{"className":2045},[1974],[1862,2047,2049],{"className":2048},[1964],"2",[1862,2051,2053],{"className":2052},[1964],[1862,2054,1942],{"className":2055},[2016],[1862,2057,2020],{"className":2058},[1964],[1862,2060,1903],{"className":2061},[1981],[1862,2063],{"className":2064,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2066,1906],{"className":2067},[1990],[1862,2069],{"className":2070,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2072,2074,2078,2082,2088,2092],{"className":2073},[1955],[1862,2075],{"className":2076,"style":2077},[1959],"height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1862,2079,2081],{"className":2080},[1964],"£3",[1862,2083,2085],{"className":2084},[1964],[1862,2086,1942],{"className":2087},[2016],[1862,2089,2091],{"className":2090},[1964],"200",[1862,2093,1942],{"className":2094},[2016],[1862,2096,2098],{"className":2097},[1865],[1862,2099,2101,2153],{"className":2100},[1869],[1862,2102,2104],{"className":2103},[1873],[1875,2105,2106],{"xmlns":1877,"display":1878},[1880,2107,2108,2150],{},[1883,2109,2110,2112,2114,2116,2119,2121,2123,2125,2128,2130,2133,2135,2137,2139,2141,2143,2145,2147],{},[1886,2111,1888],{},[1886,2113,1891],{},[1893,2115,1896],{"stretchy":1895},[1898,2117,2118],{},"1",[1893,2120,1903],{"stretchy":1895},[1893,2122,1906],{},[1886,2124,1935],{"mathvariant":1934},[1898,2126,2127],{},"3,660",[1893,2129,1942],{"separator":1941},[1985,2131],{"width":2132},"2em",[1886,2134,1888],{},[1886,2136,1891],{},[1893,2138,1896],{"stretchy":1895},[1898,2140,2049],{},[1893,2142,1903],{"stretchy":1895},[1893,2144,1906],{},[1886,2146,1935],{"mathvariant":1934},[1898,2148,2149],{},"3,600.",[1944,2151,2152],{"encoding":1946},"EV(1)=£3{,}660,\\qquad EV(2)=£3{,}600.",[1862,2154,2156,2186,2240],{"className":2155,"ariaHidden":1941},[1951],[1862,2157,2159,2162,2165,2168,2171,2174,2177,2180,2183],{"className":2158},[1955],[1862,2160],{"className":2161,"style":1960},[1959],[1862,2163,1888],{"className":2164,"style":1966},[1964,1965],[1862,2166,1891],{"className":2167,"style":1970},[1964,1965],[1862,2169,1896],{"className":2170},[1974],[1862,2172,2118],{"className":2173},[1964],[1862,2175,1903],{"className":2176},[1981],[1862,2178],{"className":2179,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2181,1906],{"className":2182},[1990],[1862,2184],{"className":2185,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2187,2189,2192,2195,2201,2205,2208,2212,2216,2219,2222,2225,2228,2231,2234,2237],{"className":2188},[1955],[1862,2190],{"className":2191,"style":1960},[1959],[1862,2193,2081],{"className":2194},[1964],[1862,2196,2198],{"className":2197},[1964],[1862,2199,1942],{"className":2200},[2016],[1862,2202,2204],{"className":2203},[1964],"660",[1862,2206,1942],{"className":2207},[2016],[1862,2209],{"className":2210,"style":2211},[1985],"margin-right:2em;",[1862,2213],{"className":2214,"style":2215},[1985],"margin-right:0.1667em;",[1862,2217,1888],{"className":2218,"style":1966},[1964,1965],[1862,2220,1891],{"className":2221,"style":1970},[1964,1965],[1862,2223,1896],{"className":2224},[1974],[1862,2226,2049],{"className":2227},[1964],[1862,2229,1903],{"className":2230},[1981],[1862,2232],{"className":2233,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2235,1906],{"className":2236},[1990],[1862,2238],{"className":2239,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2241,2243,2246,2249,2255],{"className":2242},[1955],[1862,2244],{"className":2245,"style":2077},[1959],[1862,2247,2081],{"className":2248},[1964],[1862,2250,2252],{"className":2251},[1964],[1862,2253,1942],{"className":2254},[2016],[1862,2256,2258],{"className":2257},[1964],"600.",[1798,2260,2261],{},"With these probabilities and a risk-neutral objective, one extra picker wins by £60 over two. That small margin should trigger sensitivity analysis, not a confident slogan.",[1793,2263,2265],{"id":2264},"expected-value-of-perfect-information","Expected value of perfect information",[1798,2267,2268],{},"With advance knowledge, HarborMart would use current staffing under normal demand and two extra pickers under high demand:",[1862,2270,2272],{"className":2271},[1865],[1862,2273,2275,2330],{"className":2274},[1869],[1862,2276,2278],{"className":2277},[1873],[1875,2279,2280],{"xmlns":1877,"display":1878},[1880,2281,2282,2327],{},[1883,2283,2284,2286,2299,2301,2303,2305,2307,2309,2311,2313,2315,2318,2320,2322,2324],{},[1886,2285,1888],{},[2287,2288,2289,2291],"msub",{},[1886,2290,1891],{},[1883,2292,2293,2296],{},[1886,2294,2295],{},"P",[1886,2297,2298],{},"I",[1893,2300,1906],{},[1898,2302,1909],{},[1893,2304,1896],{"stretchy":1895},[1898,2306,1914],{},[1893,2308,1903],{"stretchy":1895},[1893,2310,1919],{},[1898,2312,1922],{},[1893,2314,1896],{"stretchy":1895},[1898,2316,2317],{},"4,200",[1893,2319,1903],{"stretchy":1895},[1893,2321,1906],{},[1886,2323,1935],{"mathvariant":1934},[1898,2325,2326],{},"4,080.",[1944,2328,2329],{"encoding":1946},"EV_{PI}=0.6(4{,}000)+0.4(4{,}200)=£4{,}080.",[1862,2331,2333,2416,2452,2488],{"className":2332,"ariaHidden":1941},[1951],[1862,2334,2336,2340,2343,2407,2410,2413],{"className":2335},[1955],[1862,2337],{"className":2338,"style":2339},[1959],"height:0.8333em;vertical-align:-0.15em;",[1862,2341,1888],{"className":2342,"style":1966},[1964,1965],[1862,2344,2346,2349],{"className":2345},[1964],[1862,2347,1891],{"className":2348,"style":1970},[1964,1965],[1862,2350,2353],{"className":2351},[2352],"msupsub",[1862,2354,2358,2398],{"className":2355},[2356,2357],"vlist-t","vlist-t2",[1862,2359,2362,2393],{"className":2360},[2361],"vlist-r",[1862,2363,2367],{"className":2364,"style":2366},[2365],"vlist","height:0.3283em;",[1862,2368,2370,2375],{"style":2369},"top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.2222em;margin-right:0.05em;",[1862,2371],{"className":2372,"style":2374},[2373],"pstrut","height:2.7em;",[1862,2376,2382],{"className":2377},[2378,2379,2380,2381],"sizing","reset-size6","size3","mtight",[1862,2383,2385,2389],{"className":2384},[1964,2381],[1862,2386,2295],{"className":2387,"style":2388},[1964,1965,2381],"margin-right:0.1389em;",[1862,2390,2298],{"className":2391,"style":2392},[1964,1965,2381],"margin-right:0.0785em;",[1862,2394,2397],{"className":2395},[2396],"vlist-s","​",[1862,2399,2401],{"className":2400},[2361],[1862,2402,2405],{"className":2403,"style":2404},[2365],"height:0.15em;",[1862,2406],{},[1862,2408],{"className":2409,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2411,1906],{"className":2412},[1990],[1862,2414],{"className":2415,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2417,2419,2422,2425,2428,2431,2437,2440,2443,2446,2449],{"className":2418},[1955],[1862,2420],{"className":2421,"style":1960},[1959],[1862,2423,1909],{"className":2424},[1964],[1862,2426,1896],{"className":2427},[1974],[1862,2429,2009],{"className":2430},[1964],[1862,2432,2434],{"className":2433},[1964],[1862,2435,1942],{"className":2436},[2016],[1862,2438,2020],{"className":2439},[1964],[1862,2441,1903],{"className":2442},[1981],[1862,2444],{"className":2445,"style":1970},[1985],[1862,2447,1919],{"className":2448},[2030],[1862,2450],{"className":2451,"style":1970},[1985],[1862,2453,2455,2458,2461,2464,2467,2473,2476,2479,2482,2485],{"className":2454},[1955],[1862,2456],{"className":2457,"style":1960},[1959],[1862,2459,1922],{"className":2460},[1964],[1862,2462,1896],{"className":2463},[1974],[1862,2465,2009],{"className":2466},[1964],[1862,2468,2470],{"className":2469},[1964],[1862,2471,1942],{"className":2472},[2016],[1862,2474,2091],{"className":2475},[1964],[1862,2477,1903],{"className":2478},[1981],[1862,2480],{"className":2481,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2483,1906],{"className":2484},[1990],[1862,2486],{"className":2487,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2489,2491,2494,2498,2504],{"className":2490},[1955],[1862,2492],{"className":2493,"style":2077},[1959],[1862,2495,2497],{"className":2496},[1964],"£4",[1862,2499,2501],{"className":2500},[1964],[1862,2502,1942],{"className":2503},[2016],[1862,2505,2507],{"className":2506},[1964],"080.",[1798,2509,2510],{},"Therefore",[1862,2512,2514],{"className":2513},[1865],[1862,2515,2517,2554],{"className":2516},[1869],[1862,2518,2520],{"className":2519},[1873],[1875,2521,2522],{"xmlns":1877,"display":1878},[1880,2523,2524,2551],{},[1883,2525,2526,2528,2530,2532,2534,2536,2539,2542,2544,2546,2548],{},[1886,2527,1888],{},[1886,2529,1891],{},[1886,2531,2295],{},[1886,2533,2298],{},[1893,2535,1906],{},[1898,2537,2538],{},"4,080",[1893,2540,2541],{},"−",[1898,2543,2127],{},[1893,2545,1906],{},[1886,2547,1935],{"mathvariant":1934},[1898,2549,2550],{},"420.",[1944,2552,2553],{"encoding":1946},"EVPI=4{,}080-3{,}660=£420.",[1862,2555,2557,2585,2614,2642],{"className":2556,"ariaHidden":1941},[1951],[1862,2558,2560,2564,2567,2570,2573,2576,2579,2582],{"className":2559},[1955],[1862,2561],{"className":2562,"style":2563},[1959],"height:0.6833em;",[1862,2565,1888],{"className":2566,"style":1966},[1964,1965],[1862,2568,1891],{"className":2569,"style":1970},[1964,1965],[1862,2571,2295],{"className":2572,"style":2388},[1964,1965],[1862,2574,2298],{"className":2575,"style":2392},[1964,1965],[1862,2577],{"className":2578,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2580,1906],{"className":2581},[1990],[1862,2583],{"className":2584,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2586,2588,2592,2595,2601,2605,2608,2611],{"className":2587},[1955],[1862,2589],{"className":2590,"style":2591},[1959],"height:0.8389em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;",[1862,2593,2009],{"className":2594},[1964],[1862,2596,2598],{"className":2597},[1964],[1862,2599,1942],{"className":2600},[2016],[1862,2602,2604],{"className":2603},[1964],"080",[1862,2606],{"className":2607,"style":1970},[1985],[1862,2609,2541],{"className":2610},[2030],[1862,2612],{"className":2613,"style":1970},[1985],[1862,2615,2617,2620,2624,2630,2633,2636,2639],{"className":2616},[1955],[1862,2618],{"className":2619,"style":2591},[1959],[1862,2621,2623],{"className":2622},[1964],"3",[1862,2625,2627],{"className":2626},[1964],[1862,2628,1942],{"className":2629},[2016],[1862,2631,2204],{"className":2632},[1964],[1862,2634],{"className":2635,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2637,1906],{"className":2638},[1990],[1862,2640],{"className":2641,"style":1986},[1985],[1862,2643,2645,2649],{"className":2644},[1955],[1862,2646],{"className":2647,"style":2648},[1959],"height:0.6944em;",[1862,2650,2652],{"className":2651},[1964],"£420.",[1798,2654,2655],{},"£420 is an upper bound on what perfect demand information is worth for this decision. A forecast costing £1,000 per evening cannot be justified by this simplified payoff table.",[1793,2657,2659],{"id":2658},"regret-reveals-fragility","Regret reveals fragility",[1798,2661,2662],{},"Regret is the gap from the best action in each state:",[1802,2664,2665,2681],{},[1805,2666,2667],{},[1808,2668,2669,2672,2675,2678],{},[1811,2670,2671],{},"Regret",[1811,2673,2674],{"align":1816},"Normal",[1811,2676,2677],{"align":1816},"High",[1811,2679,2680],{"align":1816},"Maximum",[1822,2682,2683,2695,2708],{},[1808,2684,2685,2687,2690,2693],{},[1827,2686,1829],{},[1827,2688,2689],{"align":1816},"£0",[1827,2691,2692],{"align":1816},"£2,200",[1827,2694,2692],{"align":1816},[1808,2696,2697,2700,2703,2706],{},[1827,2698,2699],{},"add one",[1827,2701,2702],{"align":1816},"£300",[1827,2704,2705],{"align":1816},"£600",[1827,2707,2705],{"align":1816},[1808,2709,2710,2713,2716,2718],{},[1827,2711,2712],{},"add two",[1827,2714,2715],{"align":1816},"£800",[1827,2717,2689],{"align":1816},[1827,2719,2715],{"align":1816},[1798,2721,2722],{},"The minimax-regret action is also one extra picker. Agreement with expected value strengthens the case here; it is not guaranteed in general.",[1793,2724,2726],{"id":2725},"risk-ambiguity-and-model-error","Risk, ambiguity and model error",[2728,2729,2730,2738,2744,2750],"ul",{},[2731,2732,2733,2737],"li",{},[2734,2735,2736],"strong",{},"risk:"," probabilities are treated as known;",[2731,2739,2740,2743],{},[2734,2741,2742],{},"parameter uncertainty:"," probabilities\u002Fpayoffs are estimated;",[2731,2745,2746,2749],{},[2734,2747,2748],{},"model uncertainty:"," the listed states omit plausible mechanisms;",[2731,2751,2752,2755],{},[2734,2753,2754],{},"ambiguity:"," no single probability distribution is credible.",[1798,2757,2758],{},"Use scenarios, intervals, robust optimisation or explicit judgement according to the source of uncertainty. Adding decimal places does not remove ambiguity.",[1798,2760,2761,2762,2769],{},"Recent decision theory explicitly studies models as approximations; see Cerreia-Vioglio et al., ",[2763,2764,2768],"a",{"href":2765,"rel":2766},"https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1093\u002Frestud\u002Frdaf046",[2767],"nofollow","Making Decisions Under Model Misspecification",". Its formal treatment is a postgraduate extension, not a reason to abandon transparent classroom scenarios.",[1793,2771,2773],{"id":2772},"quick-check","Quick check",[1798,2775,2776],{},"High-demand probability rises from 40% to 45%. Which action now has highest expected value?",[2778,2779,2781],"legacy-details",{"title":2780},"Answer","Current: £3,100; one extra: £3,655; two extra: £3,650. One extra still wins, now by only £5. The recommendation is extremely sensitive and implementation flexibility may dominate the nominal optimum.",[1798,2783,2784],{},[2763,2785,2787],{"href":2786},".\u002F16-linear-optimization","Next: Linear Optimisation",{"title":10,"searchDepth":2789,"depth":2789,"links":2790},2,[2791,2792,2793,2794,2795],{"id":1795,"depth":2789,"text":1796},{"id":2264,"depth":2789,"text":2265},{"id":2658,"depth":2789,"text":2659},{"id":2725,"depth":2789,"text":2726},{"id":2772,"depth":2789,"text":2773},"Compare actions through payoffs, probabilities, regret and robustness","md",{},true,{"title":342,"description":2796},"MMAXhqPG-w1TG4MlSj5bLC_6GKX3q-TVDLU2VVcsEa0",[2803,2805],{"title":336,"path":337,"stem":338,"description":2804,"children":-1},"Select feasible actions under uncertainty, cost, capacity and causal effects",{"title":346,"path":347,"stem":348,"description":2806,"children":-1},"Translate an allocation problem into variables, objectives, constraints and an auditable solution",1785754721698]